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Blake Bortles: The Ultimate Sunk Cost

#1
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2016, 11:55 PM by The_Anchorman.)

I know, I know.. Another BBINT thread? Thanks alot, The_Anchorman, but we're all full of crazy. Go sell your junk somewhere else, and while you're at it, pound sand .


But hear me out:


Alot of people think that Caldwell is tied to BBINT and therefore we'll be stuck with him untill the end of the 2017 season at the least. However, I would hope that Caldwell is smart enough to recognize that BBINT's status with the team is a sunk cost.


A sunk cost is basically an investment in something in which the expense has already been paid. Because the expense is paid, the cost is already sunk into the overall equation and should no longer be considered when making future decisions.


Yes, we spent a 3rd over all pick on BBINT. But that does not mean we are tied to him any longer than we decide. That 3rd pick has been spent and it ain't ever coming back. But the good news is that we do not have to continue to pay further picks or any other costs for BBINT. The future direction of this team is not tied to him or his prior draft status.


I would hope that Caldwell is wise enough to recognize this. It would be smart to begin to look at alternatives to BBINT moving forward. A smart GM and a wise owner who is a billionaire business man should recognize that BBINT's costs are sunk. Moving forward, decisions at the QB position should not be tied at all to BBINT or the fact that we spend a 3rd pick on him nearly 4 years ago.


It's time to look forward and not get caught up in the past decisions in this matter. That means all options should be on the table... Drafting a QB, acquiring a FA QB, or making a trade for a QB should all be options that are looked into immediately following the end of the 2016 season. This should not wait.


Thank you for your time.


TL;DR - The cost of BBINT's 3rd over all pick should not hinder the Front Office from finding his replacement this off season.
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#2
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2016, 08:32 PM by Jagwired.)

I don't think DC will let money influence any personnel decision he might make.. Hell, he might not get a chance. We don't know how [BAD WORD REMOVED] off Mr. Khan is. He might clean house again.


Looking to troll? Don't bother, we supply our own.

 

 
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#3

While he is a sunk cost, and we're desperate for change, I dont see too many alternatives:

 

Is Brandon Allen ready as an undersized rookie? 

 

Is Henne really THAT much better than Bortles given all of his obvious shortcomings?

 

Is there a QB in this draft worth drafting top 5? let alone passing on some of the other premier talent at the top?

 

Would a solid veteran QB  like Cutler, Romo, Garropolo, Cousins, etc. even WANT to come here?


Championship Formula:

1) Draft Trevor Lawrence!
2) Play good physical Defense! 
3) Keep 91% of the roster healthy!
4) ???
5) Blank #2
6) CHAMPIONSHIP!!!
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#4

Quote:I know, I know..  Another BBINT thread?  Thanks alot, The_Anchorman, but we're all full of crazy. Go sell your junk somewhere else, and while you're at it, pound sand .

 

But hear me out:  

 

Alot of people think that Caldwell is tied to BBINT and therefore we'll be stuck with him untill the end of the 2017 season at the least.  However, I would hope that Caldwell is smart enough to recognize that BBINT's status with the team is a sunk cost.

 

A sunk cost is basically an investment in something in which the expense has already been paid.  Because the expense is paid, the cost is already sunk into the overall equation and should no longer be considered when making future decisions.

 

Yes, we spent a 3rd round pick on BBINT.  But that does not mean we are tied to him any longer than we decide.  That 3rd round pick has been spent and it ain't ever coming back.   But the good news is that we do not have to continue to pay further picks or any other costs for BBINT.  The future direction of this team is not tied to him or his prior draft status.

 

I would hope that Caldwell is wise enough to recognize this.  It would be smart to begin to look at alternatives to BBINT moving forward.  A smart GM and a wise owner who is a billionaire business man should recognize that BBINT's costs are sunk.  Moving forward, decisions at the QB position should not be tied at all to BBINT or the fact that we spend a 3rd round pick on him nearly 4 years ago.

 

It's time to look forward and not get caught up in the past decisions in this matter. That means all options should be on the table...  Drafting a QB, acquiring a FA QB, or making a trade for a QB should all be options that are looked into immediately following the end of the 2016 season.  This should not wait.

 

Thank you for your time.  

 

TL;DR - The cost of BBINT's 3rd round pick should not hinder the Front Office from finding his replacement this off season.
 

If only it was a 3rd round pick instead of the 3rd overall pick.

I survived the Gus Bradley Error.
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#5

BB5's career is eerily similar to Josh Freeman. One good year with Olson and then down into the sewers he goes. Derek Carr is lucky that Olie left after his first year.


“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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#6

I'm totally offended by you telling me to go pound sand.. I need some playdoh, a therapy dog and a new safe space..


And I'm over bb5.. That dude's a tool..
[Image: SaKG4.gif]
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#7

We had this same discussion about gabbert. As i remember, he got another coach fired and eventually his gm fired. I think we will see the same narrative. The theme will be "can you fix him?"
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#8

Quote:It's time to look forward and not get caught up in the past decisions in this matter. That means all options should be on the table...  Drafting a QB, acquiring a FA QB, or making a trade for a QB should all be options that are looked into immediately following the end of the 2016 season.  This should not wait.
 

I thought this was pretty obvious.  

 

But unless there's some kind of off the field situation, Bortles isn't going anywhere.  And he should be forced win the starting job in 2017.  And that means his biggest competition has to be someone other than Chad Henne.  At this point, he's no longer The Guy for 2017.  He's just a guy competing for the job.

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#9

No gm can escape their own ego, and trust me, they all have one. Bortles is here to stay for at least 1 more full season.


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#10

Quote:If only it was a 3rd round pick instead of the 3rd overall pick.


Thanks! Duly noted and corrected.
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#11

Quote:No gm can escape their own ego, and trust me, they all have one. Bortles is here to stay for at least 1 more full season.


I hear ya. But that's my point. If Caldwell is wise he won't let his ego get in the way of what is the correct move.


The correct move is to recognize that the future decisions this off-season should not be hindered by the expense paid 3 years ago with the 3rd over all pick.
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#12

Quote:Is Brandon Allen ready as an undersized rookie?


Is Henne really THAT much better than Bortles given all of his obvious shortcomings?


Is there a QB in this draft worth drafting top 5? let alone passing on some of the other premier talent at the top?


Would a solid veteran QB like Cutler, Romo, Garropolo, Cousins, etc. even WANT to come here?


1) Would like to see Allen get some PT, but don't think he's ready

2) Henne should be cut next year imo

3) Doubt it. If so, Cleveland, San Fran, and Chicago will be interested

4) Don't want Cutler, Romo or Garropolo. Bet Cousins re-signs with Washington
Reply

#13

Quote:I know, I know.. Another BBINT thread? Thanks alot, The_Anchorman, but we're all full of crazy. Go sell your junk somewhere else, and while you're at it, pound sand .


But hear me out:


Alot of people think that Caldwell is tied to BBINT and therefore we'll be stuck with him untill the end of the 2017 season at the least. However, I would hope that Caldwell is smart enough to recognize that BBINT's status with the team is a sunk cost.


A sunk cost is basically an investment in something in which the expense has already been paid. Because the expense is paid, the cost is already sunk into the overall equation and should no longer be considered when making future decisions.


Yes, we spent a 3rd over all pick on BBINT. But that does not mean we are tied to him any longer than we decide. That 3rd pick has been spent and it ain't ever coming back. But the good news is that we do not have to continue to pay further picks or any other costs for BBINT. The future direction of this team is not tied to him or his prior draft status.


I would hope that Caldwell is wise enough to recognize this. It would be smart to begin to look at alternatives to BBINT moving forward. A smart GM and a wise owner who is a billionaire business man should recognize that BBINT's costs are sunk. Moving forward, decisions at the QB position should not be tied at all to BBINT or the fact that we spend a 3rd pick on him nearly 4 years ago.


It's time to look forward and not get caught up in the past decisions in this matter. That means all options should be on the table... Drafting a QB, acquiring a FA QB, or making a trade for a QB should all be options that are looked into immediately following the end of the 2016 season. This should not wait.


Thank you for your time.


TL;DR - The cost of BBINT's 3rd over all pick should not hinder the Front Office from finding his replacement this off season.


Did you steal this from TMD? Man that sounds like him (non ranting version before he gets baited). You mention the Peter Principle and I will know something is up...


Yes, it's improvement, but it's Blaine Gabbert 2012 level improvement. - Pirkster

http://youtu.be/ouGM3NWpjxk The Home Hypnotist!

http://youtu.be/XQRFkn0Ly3A Media on the Brain Link!
 
Quote:Peyton must store oxygen in that forehead of his. No way I'd still be alive after all that choking.
 
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#14

Quote:We had this same discussion about gabbert. As i remember, he got another coach fired and eventually his gm fired. I think we will see the same narrative. The theme will be "can you fix him?"
Gabbert has never been as good as Bortles. Even this years version of BBINT runs circles aroubd Gabs.


Yes, it's improvement, but it's Blaine Gabbert 2012 level improvement. - Pirkster

http://youtu.be/ouGM3NWpjxk The Home Hypnotist!

http://youtu.be/XQRFkn0Ly3A Media on the Brain Link!
 
Quote:Peyton must store oxygen in that forehead of his. No way I'd still be alive after all that choking.
 
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#15

Quote:We had this same discussion about gabbert. As i remember, he got another coach fired and eventually his gm fired. I think we will see the same narrative. The theme will be "can you fix him?"
I think this is more important than we will ever know.

 

The answer to this will govern who the next coach will be.

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#16

[Image: HalfBaked.jpg]


"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."
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#17
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2016, 11:59 AM by knarnn.)

I believe Bortles issues are all correctable. Or can at least be covered up enough so he can perform at a high level. Bortles may never be a top 5 QB, but I believe he can consistently become a top 15 QB, and that will be enough to win.


I compare his situation to Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill has gone thru numerous head coaches and offensive coordinators and has been called a bust many of times, but it took a bright, offensive mind in Gase to sort out and mask some of Tannehill's short comings and now he's playing some really good football.


I don't expect this team to draft another QB next year. I expect the Jags to sign a journeyman vet like a Case Keenum, Brian Hoyer, or Mark Sanchez to provide competition and insurance just in case Bortles flames out totally. The new head coach should be willing to work with Bortles to try and fix him. But on that same token he should be given free reign to have a true QB competition and let the best guy start. As long as his hand isn't forced to play Bortles I don't think that should effect any potential coaches from coming here.
"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."
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#18

Quote:While he is a sunk cost, and we're desperate for change, I dont see too many alternatives:


Is Brandon Allen ready as an undersized rookie?


Is Henne really THAT much better than Bortles given all of his obvious shortcomings?


Is there a QB in this draft worth drafting top 5? let alone passing on some of the other premier talent at the top?


Would a solid veteran QB like Cutler, Romo, Garropolo, Cousins, etc. even WANT to come here?
The answer to would a solid vet Qb want to come here imho is absolutely yes.

Here's a few reasons.

Allen Robinson

Allan hurns

Lee.

Thomas

Ivory

Yeldon
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#19

Quote:We had this same discussion about gabbert. As i remember, he got another coach fired and eventually his gm fired. I think we will see the same narrative. The theme will be "can you fix him?"
 

OK, so what if that is the question?  What if a good coach says "no" he's not fixable.  Does that mean the Jags pass on that person?  Will Bortles be Gabbert 2.0 and get the next Mularkey fired?  And then we move on to the next coach after that?

 

I agree Bortles in the ultimate sunk cost.  To overcome sunk costs, you look/move forward and ignore the past.  The facts right now are that you have a QB who is performing at the bottom of the league.  You could even argue he's not in the top 32 if you consider starters and backups.  You know he has significant mechanical issues which came back with a vengeance in year 3.  You know that he is not improving in the film room (i.e. pre-snap reading of defenses and quicker in-play decision making).  He is a QB who does not take care of the ball (pick 6s, INTs, fumbles).  His issues are not trending in a positive/corrected direction.

 

With all that said, is there a small chance he could improve?  Sure...but you better not bet on it.  His contract isn't up so he's not going anywhere.  I believe you treat the roster like you don't have a starting QB.  So, you better draft one or do your best to find an average QB in free agency in the worst case.  You can't start 2017 hinging all hope that Bortles has corrected all of his significant issues, that is just unrealistic. 

 

If he "wins" the starting job moving forward then great.  If not, then you have a plan B in place.  And you better get a plan C to draft someone in 2018 if needed.

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#20

Will the real Blake Bortles please stand up.

https://youtu.be/MLrFUoeQTMo
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