A lot of people are predicting that in a few years, we could have self driving cars and trucks.   This could mean the end of a lot of jobs like taxi driving, trucking, etc.   Some people say up to 3 million jobs could be lost to this kind of automotive automation.  

Do you think the government should have any role in mitigating the impact on people whose jobs are lost to self-driving car and truck technology?

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This is Waaaaaaaaay more than a few years away. Self driving trucks will be decades behind self driving cars, which is still at least a decade away itself.

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Tough question to answer, but if someone knows their job will be replaced by automation and has a decade of notice, I don't see it as the government responsibility to train people in new job skills.

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I do believe that a self driving taxi cab should be liable to pay the same amount of tax as a taxi driver would.

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This is Waaaaaaaaay more than a few years away. Self driving trucks will be decades behind self driving cars, which is still at least a decade away itself.

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Tough question to answer, but if someone knows their job will be replaced by automation and has a decade of notice, I don't see it as the government responsibility to train people in new job skills.

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I do believe that a self driving taxi cab should be liable to pay the same amount of tax as a taxi driver would.

You should go visit California some time, Google's company Waymo been using autonomous cars there for more than 5 years now. Uber is currently testing an autonomous unit as well. Moore's Law is in full effect and we are standing on the edge of exponential growth in technology.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

This is Waaaaaaaaay more than a few years away. Self driving trucks will be decades behind self driving cars, which is still at least a decade away itself.

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Tough question to answer, but if someone knows their job will be replaced by automation and has a decade of notice, I don't see it as the government responsibility to train people in new job skills.

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I do believe that a self driving taxi cab should be liable to pay the same amount of tax as a taxi driver would.

You should go visit California some time, Google's company Waymo been using autonomous cars there for more than 5 years now. Uber is currently testing an autonomous unit as well. Moore's Law is in full effect and we are standing on the edge of exponential growth in technology.

I am not saying it isn't happening or going to happen, I am just saying we are a long time away from a country where the roads are full of cars that require ZERO human intervention. 

Near the end of last year, the US mandated that all new vehicles have V2V technology, which would take 2-4 years just to get that technology into new cars, and God knows how much longer to test.

Can you imagine the laws and rules that will need to be put into place before an 80,000 pound MACK truck is barreling down 95 South with no driver behind the wheel? Assuming you are around my age, we won't see it in our generation, but our kids will.

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2025 the DOT has already approved Mercedes to have self driving semi-trucks

Acura has had a self contained lane driving mode for a few years

The tech is there it's just a matter of implementing it, soon your registration will require v2v communication to be installed.

I'm already sending techs to training on this kind of stuff. I'm expecting to be like hybrids it'll start off few and far but in a few short years it'll become more normal. 

EVERYTHING is going to hybrid though in the next few years.

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I hope it is fully automated when my kids start driving in 12 years, but we shall see.

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Just out of curiosity, does a self driving car rely mainly on GPS satellites?

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No they relay on communication from a yaw sensor. Essentially the yaw sensor acts like a radar and the vehicle reacts to its surroundings.

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No they relay on communication from a yaw sensor. Essentially the yaw sensor acts like a radar and the vehicle reacts to its surroundings.

But what about actual navigation/directions?

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So I guess there is some disagreement about how fast this is going to happen, so let me re-phrase the question.

Putting aside our disagreement as to how fast this is going to happen, and ASSUMING that this is coming fast, and that millions of drivers are going to be unemployed as a result, what do you think we should do for those people?

Remember, a lot of people predicted that American jobs would be lost as factories moved overseas. And yet the factory workers were forgotten. And in this case, the problem won't just be American, it will be a world-wide problem.

So here we have a completely predictable situation. Have we learned anything? What do we do about it?

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So I guess there is some disagreement about how fast this is going to happen, so let me re-phrase the question.  

Putting aside our disagreement as to how fast this is going to happen, and ASSUMING that this is coming fast, and that millions of drivers are going to be unemployed as a result, what do you think we should do for those people?  

Remember, a lot of people predicted that American jobs would be lost as factories moved overseas.  And yet the factory workers were forgotten.   And in this case, the problem won't just be American, it will be a world-wide problem.

So here we have a completely predictable situation.   Have we learned anything?   What do we do about it?

Tough problem, and this is just the start. Eventually most jobs today will be done by robots.

Taxing robotic production and doling out money to the displaced workers does not solve the problem because people need to work to feel productive, but it's the least that will need to be done. Maybe the work part can be filled with sports and games.

I expect robotic trucks to come a lot sooner than some people on this board. Robotic taxis maybe not, because a lot of people will not feel safe riding with just a computer to steer and make decisions. 

And there's still plenty of work to be done on computerized driving. I recently drove a 2017 Corolla (rental). The cruise control slammed off when the computer judged I was too close to the car ahead of me, much sooner than I would have turned off the cruise control, and I'm a very conservative driver as far as how close I drive to the car in front of me. It did not just turn off the cruise control, it actually engaged the brake too. In that case the computer made a very conservative choice in the direction of safety, but I wonder how safe it would have been had a car been following too close behind me. Frankly, I still prefer my own judgement and won't be buying a new Corolla unless that's fixed.

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"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"

No they relay on communication from a yaw sensor. Essentially the yaw sensor acts like a radar and the vehicle reacts to its surroundings.

But what about actual navigation/directions?

That's one issue they're still working on, as all units currently in use require a mapped route between locations. Autonomous vehicles aren't yet ready for offroading for instance but are ready for repetitive public transit like bus routes.

As for the workers,  we do what we've always done,  leave it to the free market because central planning always does it poorly.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

That 2017 Corolla shows that the ability to self-drive is steadily being taken away. I predict insurance rates will drop for cars with these new "safety" features and will rise prominently on vehicles without self-drive features. At some point, it will become prohibitively expensive to drive yourself.

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I'm fairly certain my grandmother has a self driving car, because it's apparent that she's not paying any attention when she's behind the wheel.

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So I guess there is some disagreement about how fast this is going to happen, so let me re-phrase the question.  

Putting aside our disagreement as to how fast this is going to happen, and ASSUMING that this is coming fast, and that millions of drivers are going to be unemployed as a result, what do you think we should do for those people?  

Remember, a lot of people predicted that American jobs would be lost as factories moved overseas.  And yet the factory workers were forgotten.   And in this case, the problem won't just be American, it will be a world-wide problem.

So here we have a completely predictable situation.   Have we learned anything?   What do we do about it?

Tough problem, and this is just the start. Eventually most jobs today will be done by robots.

Taxing robotic production and doling out money to the displaced workers does not solve the problem because people need to work to feel productive, but it's the least that will need to be done. Maybe the work part can be filled with sports and games.

I expect robotic trucks to come a lot sooner than some people on this board. Robotic taxis maybe not, because a lot of people will not feel safe riding with just a computer to steer and make decisions. 

And there's still plenty of work to be done on computerized driving. I recently drove a 2017 Corolla (rental). The cruise control slammed off when the computer judged I was too close to the car ahead of me, much sooner than I would have turned off the cruise control, and I'm a very conservative driver as far as how close I drive to the car in front of me. It did not just turn off the cruise control, it actually engaged the brake too. In that case the computer made a very conservative choice in the direction of safety, but I wonder how safe it would have been had a car been following too close behind me. Frankly, I still prefer my own judgement and won't be buying a new Corolla unless that's fixed.

I wasn't implying that the robot tax would go to training displaced workers, I was more implying that the federal government isn't going to sit quietly by while it loses out of tax revenue due to automation.

Check out what Bill Gates has to say on the whole robotic tax. Very interesting stuff.

There has to be jobs for everybody and if someone is knowingly going into an industry that has a STRONG possibility of being taken over by automation, that is on them in my opinion and not the responsibility of the government to help them out.

It is a slippery slope and going to be very interested to see how it all plays out. (if it happens in my lifetime of course).

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That 2017 Corolla shows that the ability to self-drive is steadily being taken away.  I predict insurance rates will drop for cars with these new "safety" features and will rise prominently on vehicles without self-drive features.  At some point, it will become prohibitively expensive to drive yourself.

Again, this is decades away IMO. Auto insurance is a very crooked industry and rates have been trending up rather than down, even with all of the new safety features being offered.

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Getting realllllll close to Maximum Overdrive becoming a reality.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

I don't trust em..

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So I guess there is some disagreement about how fast this is going to happen, so let me re-phrase the question.  

Putting aside our disagreement as to how fast this is going to happen, and ASSUMING that this is coming fast, and that millions of drivers are going to be unemployed as a result, what do you think we should do for those people?  

Remember, a lot of people predicted that American jobs would be lost as factories moved overseas.  And yet the factory workers were forgotten.   And in this case, the problem won't just be American, it will be a world-wide problem.

So here we have a completely predictable situation.   Have we learned anything?   What do we do about it?

It is up to the folks who do these jobs to make the effort to seek some sort of alternative employment or training. You can't force people to take the initiative but at a certain point it should appeal to their self interest to stay ahead of potential issues.

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I'm for any technology that allows me to get behind the wheel legally with a case (24-pack) of Iron City Beer like I did in the past.

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So I guess there is some disagreement about how fast this is going to happen, so let me re-phrase the question.  

Putting aside our disagreement as to how fast this is going to happen, and ASSUMING that this is coming fast, and that millions of drivers are going to be unemployed as a result, what do you think we should do for those people?  

Remember, a lot of people predicted that American jobs would be lost as factories moved overseas.  And yet the factory workers were forgotten.   And in this case, the problem won't just be American, it will be a world-wide problem.

So here we have a completely predictable situation.   Have we learned anything?   What do we do about it?

It is up to the folks who do these jobs to make the effort to seek some sort of alternative employment or training. You can't force people to take the initiative but at a certain point it should appeal to their self interest to stay ahead of potential issues.

Coal miners didn't do that.  Factory workers didn't do that.  Steel workers didn't do that.   The loss of those jobs was completely predictable, and yet the people who stood to lose those jobs are now on unemployment, medicaid, and whatever other government help they can get.   Asking people to be forward-looking and get into another business is just asking too much of average people.  They always wind up unemployed with no other skills.  

In the future, there is little doubt that low-skilled workers are going to be replaced by technology and robotics.  There is absolutely no doubt about it.   AND, I would predict that there will be so many of these displaced workers that they will ask the government to redistribute wealth.  

It seems to me that we have to bend our conservative free-market principles just a little to stave off a movement to have the government confiscate wealth from working people and give it to the displaced.   We need to be forward thinking for a change and do something while it's easy and not wait for the time when doing something will be very hard.

It's up to the smart people to help out the dumb people before the dumb people rise up against the smart people.

But, that's just my opinion. I'm interested in anyone else's opinion.

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Marty, the problem is you see yourself as one of the smart people who won't get displaced. That is wishful thinking. ALL careers are under "attack" by technology. There will be algorithms taking the place of white-collar decision-makers at every level. There will be surgical robots with encyclopedic knowledge, superior visual ability and much finer motor skills than any human.

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