At least this part of our long, Duval nightmare is over.  Training camp is upon us.  With this in mind, here are some of my thoughts over the next few weeks.

1.  Acknowledging this may be the result of the "everyone is a contender in July" syndrome, from the outside looking in, I suspect, despite this team's horrid record last year, the mindset of this team going into camp will be a lot more conducive to overall team success than it has been in the past few seasons.  Prior seasons had the team completely devoid of talent, and the organization virtually devoid of any positive expectations coming in.  This is not the case this year.  Many media observers believe this is a talented team.  The organization now has two people in charge who have a history of coaxing good results out of teams-Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone.  Both are instilling a more disciplined culture.  I think Marrone's two game interim tenure here gave the team a foretaste of its capabilities.  I think for the nucleus, there is a more tangible knowledge they can perform better than they have been, bolstered by the expectations...the demands...that they do just that.

2.  Continuing on the above, I was struck by a quote from one of the articles today on Jaguars.com.  In relevant part...

Marrone said he expects to know a lot about the offensive line in the next week and a half. Not only are Robinson and Albert competing, but the team worked Linder,

A.J. Cann, Earl Watford, Patrick Omameh, Chris Reed and Luke Bowanko at various positions on the interior during the offseason. “We’re going to play the best five,” Marrone said, adding that a five-day stretch of padded practices next week ...

(Emphasis added)

I cannot recall a similar stretch of training camp practices in a long time here.  I suspect this stretch will go a long way in establishing a physical tone with the team. 

3.  Speaking of the offensive line, I am unsure what to think of this group just yet.  Looking on paper through my teal colored glasses, I see this OL as potentially the most talented and versatile group we've had here in a while, with the additions of Branden Albert and rookie Cam Robinson.  Albert has been a two time Pro Bowler at LT, a position that has been problematic for this team for a long time.  While he is 32, he should still have a couple of good seasons left in the tank.  Pushing him is Robinson, who the coaches have repeatedly indicated will also play LT.  If both are at the top of their games, the competition between the two will make both better, and should minimally give great depth at the most important position on the OL no matter who wins.  The loser of that competition may be moved inside to guard.  Either player moved inside should give our run game a boost and provide more athleticism.

My pessimistic side sees a guy in his 30s forced out of Miami, and a guy from a highly respected program that, inexplicably, has produced a number of OL busts/underachievers in recent years.  Highly touted guys like DJ Fluker, Cyrus Kouandjio, Chance Warmack, James Carpenter have come from Saban U and fell out of favor with the teams that drafted them.  The last Bama T to succeed was Andre Smith, who was drafted in 2009.  I still wonder why a T needy team like Seattle was willing to pass Robinson up when they had the chance to draft him at the top of the 2nd round.

At minimum, Robinson needs to be able to succeed at G.  This team's stated philosophy is predicated on a power running game.  Fournette's ability to succeed will be predicated on the OL being physically dominant at the LOS.  I think he can meet the minimum standard of being a good run blocking G.  But I hate having these nagging questions.

4.  There is no shortfall of defensive story lines to watch.  I want to see Myles Jack take command of the Mike.  I don't want to see many times outs or busted plays (think the TD run allowed v. Philadelphia a few years back) because Jack can't get the guys in position.  I am encouraged by what Campbell said about his development.  I suspect that if he has a firm grasp of the defenses up against various offensive looks, his athleticism will make him a huge asset and enable him to show big play ability. 

5.  Another defensive spot that bears watching is the DE position, specifically Ngakoue and Fowler.  Will one, both, or neither make the hoped for leap in second year productivity stalwart pass rushers like Khalil Mack,Olivier Vernon, Robert Quinn made in the past.  I think most on the message board seem to have written off Fowler, and understandably so.  But the overlap between off field maturity and passion for the game is not complete.  Some players have succeeded despite having some knucklehead tendencies.  The comparison/contrast between Fowler (the "knucklehead") and Ngakoue, who doesn't seem to have the physical talent of Fowler but seems more mature, will be interesting.

6.  For me, the inescapable thought/expectation is that an underrated and welcome upgrade will be Barry Church over the former Jaguar Jon Cyprien.  I think he will be an upgrade, if for no other reason that he won't take as many bad angles as Cyprien.  But I think he'll be better in coverage.

7.  Joe DeCamillis may prove to be one of the most important additions to this team.  In recent years, inept special teams play has cost us several games.  I remember the back to back blocked punts against Cincinnati.  DeCamillis, has been a long respected special teams coach.  I'm hoping the special teams will be noticeably improved early in preseason.

8.  I am disappointed to see FB Marquez Williams start camp on PUP.  I really want to see him in action soon, especially with the renewed emphasis on the running game.  Barring a quick return to health, I can't help but think he'll be destined for the practice squad his rookie year.  The one saving grace is that because so few teams use a FB, he'll be a relatively safe stash there.

9.  Another rookie I am eager to see is 5th round LB Blair Brown.  I never saw him play, but I liked what I read about him.  His development will determine what happens with Telvin Smith.

Those are some of my thoughts/ramblings.  Yours are welcomed.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Good read as always Bullseye. I am curious as to why you are comparing Blair Brown's development to Telvin's? I see Blair as the replacement to Poz with Smith, Jack and Brown hopefully being long time fixtures at the line backing corps.


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Original Season Ticket Holder - Retired  1995 - 2020


At some point you just have to let go of what you thought should happen and live in what is happening.
 

Marrone said he expects to know a lot about the offensive line in the next week and a half. Not only are Robinson and Albert competing, but the team worked Linder,

A.J. Cann, Earl Watford, Patrick Omameh, Chris Reed and Luke Bowanko at various positions on the interior during the offseason. “We’re going to play the best five,” Marrone said, adding that a five-day stretch of padded practices next week ...

(Emphasis added)

I cannot recall a similar stretch of training camp practices in a long time here.  I suspect this stretch will go a long way in establishing a physical tone with the team. 

...

It's interesting and important to note that Marrone plans on coming right out of the gate by using 5 of his limited number of padded practices right away. 

Clearly - he wants to set a hard-edged tone and begin to quickly separate the men from the boys. 

I dig it. 

Let's see who put the work in during their month off. Five days in pads will be telling in that respect.

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I wish I had as much confidence in Church's coverage ability as you do.

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Good read as always Bullseye.  I am curious as to why you are comparing Blair Brown's development to Telvin's?  I see Blair as the replacement to Poz with Smith, Jack and Brown hopefully being long time fixtures at the line backing corps.


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Based upon what I've read of him, he seems more like a Will than a Sam, but I may be wrong.

To me, if he develops quickly, he becomes a cheaper, younger alternative to Telvin, who they then let walk as a FA.

That said, I'd love to see your trio here long term, because I think Smith needs to be re-signed.

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(Emphasis added)

I cannot recall a similar stretch of training camp practices in a long time here.  I suspect this stretch will go a long way in establishing a physical tone with the team. 

...

It's interesting and important to note that Marrone plans on coming right out of the gate by using 5 of his limited number of padded practices right away. 

Clearly - he wants to set a hard-edged tone and begin to quickly separate the men from the boys. 

I dig it. 

Let's see who put the work in during their month off. Five days in pads will be telling in that respect.

That struck me too.  Padded practices are few and far between under this CBA.

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I wish I had as much confidence in Church's coverage ability as you do.

To be clear, I don't see him as Ed Reed...just a little better in coverage than Cyp.

But again, this may be early camp optimistic me talking.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

So how many goats do we need to sacrifice to ensure no major injuries over that 5 day stretch of pads?

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I always enjoy reading your posts, Bullseye.

I read a lot about how hard it has become to evaluate college offensive linemen who play in these wacky college offenses. But since Alabama plays a pro-style offense, that should make it easier to project how their offensive linemen will do in the NFL. This give me some hope that Cam Robinson can successfully make the jump.

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I always enjoy reading your posts, Bullseye.  

I read a lot about how hard it has become to evaluate college offensive linemen who play in these wacky college offenses.  But since Alabama plays a pro-style offense, that should make it easier to project how their offensive linemen will do in the NFL.   This give me some hope that Cam Robinson can successfully make the jump.

The thing that gives me hope is how Robinson performed against top pass rushers.  He held up well against Garrett, Lawson from Clemson, Lawson (?) from Auburn, and Key, among others.  Tennessee's Barnett is the only one to leap to mind that had success against him.

Question: Suppose Albert and Robinson compete to a draw at LT.

Who do you start at that position and why?

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Good read as always Bullseye.  I am curious as to why you are comparing Blair Brown's development to Telvin's?  I see Blair as the replacement to Poz with Smith, Jack and Brown hopefully being long time fixtures at the line backing corps.


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When I initially replied to your post, the relevance of your avatar did not register with me.

Did you watch much Ohio football?  If so, I readily defer to your analysis at this point.  What did you think of Brown?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I always enjoy reading your posts, Bullseye.  

I read a lot about how hard it has become to evaluate college offensive linemen who play in these wacky college offenses.  But since Alabama plays a pro-style offense, that should make it easier to project how their offensive linemen will do in the NFL.   This give me some hope that Cam Robinson can successfully make the jump.

The thing that gives me hope is how Robinson performed against top pass rushers.  He held up well against Garrett, Lawson from Clemson, Lawson (?) from Auburn, and Key, among others.  Tennessee's Barnett is the only one to leap to mind that had success against him.

Question: Suppose Albert and Robinson compete to a draw at LT.

Who do you start at that position and why?

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Good read as always Bullseye.  I am curious as to why you are comparing Blair Brown's development to Telvin's?  I see Blair as the replacement to Poz with Smith, Jack and Brown hopefully being long time fixtures at the line backing corps.


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When I initially replied to your post, the relevance of your avatar did not register with me.

Did you watch much Ohio football?  If so, I readily defer to your analysis at this point.  What did you think of Brown?

If the rookie is as good as the vet then you cut the vet and use the salary savings to sign ARob and Telvin. To their new contacts in this season.

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The thing that gives me hope is how Robinson performed against top pass rushers.  He held up well against Garrett, Lawson from Clemson, Lawson (?) from Auburn, and Key, among others.  Tennessee's Barnett is the only one to leap to mind that had success against him.

Question: Suppose Albert and Robinson compete to a draw at LT.

Who do you start at that position and why?

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When I initially replied to your post, the relevance of your avatar did not register with me.

Did you watch much Ohio football?  If so, I readily defer to your analysis at this point.  What did you think of Brown?

If the rookie is as good as the vet then you cut the vet and use the salary savings to sign ARob and Telvin. To their new contacts in this season.

That thought crossed my mind as well, though I cringe at the idea of letting a good vet like Albert go, especially if he can still play at a high level.

It seems pretty much a foregone conclusion that Lee will walk via free agency.

Should it be?

The consensus was that Westbrook, from a purely talent standpoint, carried a second round grade, but he dropped due to character concerns.

The Jaguars thought enough about his talent to risk drafting him in the 4th, but came out more strongly that he was on a very short leash than I've ever seen a team take on a player they just drafted.

If you let Lee walk with the idea that Westbrook will step in for him, what happens if Westbrook falters either on or off field?

Does a position of strength suddenly become one of perilously thin depth overnight?

I'm just not sure I let Lee walk, either.

What would Westbrook have to show you this camp to give you the confidence to let Lee walk?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

[quote pid='1006593' dateline='1501154846']

The thing that gives me hope is how Robinson performed against top pass rushers.  He held up well against Garrett, Lawson from Clemson, Lawson (?) from Auburn, and Key, among others.  Tennessee's Barnett is the only one to leap to mind that had success against him.

Question: Suppose Albert and Robinson compete to a draw at LT.

Who do you start at that position and why?

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[/quote]
 
Tough question.  I would say, since we are in win-now mode, I would put the best combination of 5 on the field. 
And I don't necessarily mean the best 5 offensive linemen.   I mean the best offensive line as a unit.  
And if that means putting either Robinson or Albert on the bench, so be it. 
I guess that's kind of a non-answer, but that's the best I can think of.

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If the rookie is as good as the vet then you cut the vet and use the salary savings to sign ARob and Telvin. To their new contacts in this season.

That thought crossed my mind as well, though I cringe at the idea of letting a good vet like Albert go, especially if he can still play at a high level.

It seems pretty much a foregone conclusion that Lee will walk via free agency.

Should it be?

The consensus was that Westbrook, from a purely talent standpoint, carried a second round grade, but he dropped due to character concerns.

The Jaguars thought enough about his talent to risk drafting him in the 4th, but came out more strongly that he was on a very short leash than I've ever seen a team take on a player they just drafted.

If you let Lee walk with the idea that Westbrook will step in for him, what happens if Westbrook falters either on or off field?

Does a position of strength suddenly become one of perilously thin depth overnight?

I'm just not sure I let Lee walk, either.

What would Westbrook have to show you this camp to give you the confidence to let Lee walk?

At this point I'm not concerned with Lee, he just hasn't done enough for me to think he's a priority. In fact as of right now I consider him a bad draft selection, not enough production for his draft position.

If he has a great year and signs for big bucks somewhere else that's good for him, but I'm not confident it will happen. If he has another year like last I'd offer him a new contact, but it wouldn't be close to #1 wr money. Thinking an incentive laden deal that bottoms it in the 15 million range over four seasons and could be worth a lot more if he suddenly starts going to pro bowls.

Really, though, Marquise being to good to sign again just isn't something I'd be worried about.

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That thought crossed my mind as well, though I cringe at the idea of letting a good vet like Albert go, especially if he can still play at a high level.

It seems pretty much a foregone conclusion that Lee will walk via free agency.

Should it be?

The consensus was that Westbrook, from a purely talent standpoint, carried a second round grade, but he dropped due to character concerns.

The Jaguars thought enough about his talent to risk drafting him in the 4th, but came out more strongly that he was on a very short leash than I've ever seen a team take on a player they just drafted.

If you let Lee walk with the idea that Westbrook will step in for him, what happens if Westbrook falters either on or off field?

Does a position of strength suddenly become one of perilously thin depth overnight?

I'm just not sure I let Lee walk, either.

What would Westbrook have to show you this camp to give you the confidence to let Lee walk?

At this point I'm not concerned with Lee, he just hasn't done enough for me to think he's a priority. In fact as of right now I consider him a bad draft selection, not enough production for his draft position.

If he has a great year and signs for big bucks somewhere else that's good for him, but I'm not confident it will happen. If he has another year like last I'd offer him a new contact, but it wouldn't be close to #1 wr money. Thinking an incentive laden deal that bottoms it in the 15 million range over four seasons and could be worth a lot more if he suddenly starts going to pro bowls.

Really, though, Marquise being to good to sign again just isn't something I'd be worried about.

I understand that take, but the problem presented by his departure still stands.

What would Westbrook have to show you in camp to place your trust in him, or would you draft a receiver next year whether he earns your trust or not?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

So how many goats do we need to sacrifice to ensure no major injuries over that 5 day stretch of pads?

That was my initial reaction, too. Tough guy coach comes in and sets the tone with 5 tough guy padded practices then deals with multiple hamstring injuries and heat-related issues. Tough guy now looks like buffoon.

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Season Ticket holder since 2004.

 

        

So how many goats do we need to sacrifice to ensure no major injuries over that 5 day stretch of pads?

That was my initial reaction, too. Tough guy coach comes in and sets the tone with 5 tough guy padded practices then deals with multiple hamstring injuries and heat-related issues. Tough guy now looks like buffoon.

I'm glad you're picking up what I was putting down.

Everyone was stoked about JDR and his Oklahoma drills too until Alualus knee got sploded doing one the first time he stepped on the field for us (because Jags). I'm gonna boo if people get hurt because they went through 5 days of padded practices when they weren't in football shape. Everyone says there's a difference between football shape and being in shape right?

What the hell though. This team's been awful bad, let's give this a shot.

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What would Westbrook have to show you this camp to give you the confidence to let Lee walk?

At this point I'm not concerned with Lee, he just hasn't done enough for me to think he's a priority. In fact as of right now I consider him a bad draft selection, not enough production for his draft position.

...

Really, though, Marquise being to good to sign again just isn't something I'd be worried about.

A 2018 starting three of Robinson/Lee/Westbrook is far superior than a Robinson/Hurns/Westbrook line-up.

If Lee gives you 14 healthy games in 2017 and plays like he did in 2016, I'd pay him handsomely.  If he can't stay on the field - he becomes less of a priority. 

It will all play itself out soon enough - but I think Lee's performance will make it very difficult to just let him walk.

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At this point I'm not concerned with Lee, he just hasn't done enough for me to think he's a priority. In fact as of right now I consider him a bad draft selection, not enough production for his draft position.

...

Really, though, Marquise being to good to sign again just isn't something I'd be worried about.

A 2018 starting three of Robinson/Lee/Westbrook is far superior than a Robinson/Hurns/Westbrook line-up.

If Lee gives you 14 healthy games in 2017 and plays like he did in 2016, I'd pay him handsomely.  If he can't stay on the field - he becomes less of a priority. 

It will all play itself out soon enough - but I think Lee's performance will make it very difficult to just let him walk.

851 yards and three TDs plus another on a kickoff isn't exactly irreplaceable.

I'm not even sure the third wide out is going to get on the field half of the time in this offense if they're serious about pounding the rock. They should be in a lot of two tight end and fullback sets.

Like I said, who the third wide receiver is just doesn't worry me. I think Hurns has shown he can be a perfectly good number two. And if Marqise has a great season that's good news in any case for the team even if he leaves for a big payday.

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A 2018 starting three of Robinson/Lee/Westbrook is far superior than a Robinson/Hurns/Westbrook line-up.

If Lee gives you 14 healthy games in 2017 and plays like he did in 2016, I'd pay him handsomely.  If he can't stay on the field - he becomes less of a priority. 

It will all play itself out soon enough - but I think Lee's performance will make it very difficult to just let him walk.

851 yards and three TDs plus another on a kickoff isn't exactly irreplaceable.

I'm not even sure the third wide out is going to get on the field half of the time in this offense if they're serious about pounding the rock. They should be in a lot of two tight end and fullback sets.

Like I said, who the third wide receiver is just doesn't worry me. I think Hurns has shown he can be a perfectly good number two. And if Marqise has a great season that's good news in any case for the team even if he leaves for a big payday.

The production doesn't tell the story.  If Lee played for the Saints last season and had Brees throwing the ball, he'd have racked up 1200 yards and 9 TDs. 

After watching every game multiple times and analyzing Bortles ad nauseum -- Lee stood out on film as being consistently open and making great plays on poorly thrown balls. 

I'm basing my stance on his ability -- not his production thus far.

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At this point I'm not concerned with Lee, he just hasn't done enough for me to think he's a priority. In fact as of right now I consider him a bad draft selection, not enough production for his draft position.

...

Really, though, Marquise being to good to sign again just isn't something I'd be worried about.

A 2018 starting three of Robinson/Lee/Westbrook is far superior than a Robinson/Hurns/Westbrook line-up.

If Lee gives you 14 healthy games in 2017 and plays like he did in 2016, I'd pay him handsomely.  If he can't stay on the field - he becomes less of a priority. 

It will all play itself out soon enough - but I think Lee's performance will make it very difficult to just let him walk.

A couple of thoughts:

1)  So factoring in production, you'd rather have Lee than Hurns?  I like Lee a lot (I saw your take on a Brees to Lee combo and agreed completely with it), but I'm not sure I'd be exactly underwhelmed with a Robinson/Hurns combo next year, especially since of Robinson, Hurns and Lee, Hurns is the only one signed beyond this season.  I think Hurns, while not as explosive as Lee, may well be tougher and a better route runner.  If TC had drafted Randy Moss in 1998, Smith and Moss would have been a more physically gifted combo than Smith and McCardell, but Smith and McCardell were pretty damn good, because Keenan complimented Smith well.  Similarly, Hurns is a good complement to Robinson and seems to offer many of the same traits that made Keenan valuable.

2)  While I am confident the team at least gets a deal done with Robinson, I am fearful of a possible Hurns/Westbrook/Benn trio, especially considering Westbrook's character concerns.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

851 yards and three TDs plus another on a kickoff isn't exactly irreplaceable.

I'm not even sure the third wide out is going to get on the field half of the time in this offense if they're serious about pounding the rock. They should be in a lot of two tight end and fullback sets.

Like I said, who the third wide receiver is just doesn't worry me. I think Hurns has shown he can be a perfectly good number two. And if Marqise has a great season that's good news in any case for the team even if he leaves for a big payday.

The production doesn't tell the story.  If Lee played for the Saints last season and had Brees throwing the ball, he'd have racked up 1200 yards and 9 TDs. 

After watching every game multiple times and analyzing Bortles ad nauseum -- Lee stood out on film as being consistently open and making great plays on poorly thrown balls. 

I'm basing my stance on his ability -- not his production thus far.

1200 yards!?That is probably being a bit overconfident in Lee and his health but I get the homer sentiment. Lee is not going to be a star as a traditional X or Z (I think he plays a ton out of the Z) because he's versatile enough to do everything but he's still very average in a lot of ways. I think he does become more valuable than Hurns because Hurns doesn't have the "it" factor that Lee does. 

Lee would really excel in a system where a QB can put him into space, especially on screens or slants and all the more technical routes that offer YAC opportunities for Lee (who was I believe top 15 in YAC last season). I would have loved to see a Jimmy Garappolo run this offense because guys like Lee and Westbrook would excel with an efficient/accurate passer that takes advantage of the gaps that these types of receivers open up.

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