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Pre Camp Musings-from 2017

#21

(07-27-2017, 01:52 PM)TheAll22 Wrote:
(07-27-2017, 12:35 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: The production doesn't tell the story.  If Lee played for the Saints last season and had Brees throwing the ball, he'd have racked up 1200 yards and 9 TDs. 

After watching every game multiple times and analyzing Bortles ad nauseum -- Lee stood out on film as being consistently open and making great plays on poorly thrown balls. 

I'm basing my stance on his ability -- not his production thus far.

1200 yards!?That is probably being a bit overconfident in Lee and his health but I get the homer sentiment. Lee is not going to be a star as a traditional X or Z (I think he plays a ton out of the Z) because he's versatile enough to do everything but he's still very average in a lot of ways. I think he does become more valuable than Hurns because Hurns doesn't have the "it" factor that Lee does. 

Lee would really excel in a system where a QB can put him into space, especially on screens or slants and all the more technical routes that offer YAC opportunities for Lee (who was I believe top 15 in YAC last season). I would have loved to see a Jimmy Garappolo run this offense because guys like Lee and Westbrook would excel with an efficient/accurate passer that takes advantage of the gaps that these types of receivers open up.
Homer sentiment? Nah. 

Lee was healthy all year in 2016 and if he'd played that season with the Saints he could have made 1200 yards. Not a stretch.  Cooks had 1150 and Lee gets similar separation with better top end speed.
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#22
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2017, 05:06 PM by TheAll22.)

(07-27-2017, 02:33 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(07-27-2017, 01:52 PM)TheAll22 Wrote: 1200 yards!?That is probably being a bit overconfident in Lee and his health but I get the homer sentiment. Lee is not going to be a star as a traditional X or Z (I think he plays a ton out of the Z) because he's versatile enough to do everything but he's still very average in a lot of ways. I think he does become more valuable than Hurns because Hurns doesn't have the "it" factor that Lee does. 

Lee would really excel in a system where a QB can put him into space, especially on screens or slants and all the more technical routes that offer YAC opportunities for Lee (who was I believe top 15 in YAC last season). I would have loved to see a Jimmy Garappolo run this offense because guys like Lee and Westbrook would excel with an efficient/accurate passer that takes advantage of the gaps that these types of receivers open up.
Homer sentiment? Nah. 

Lee was healthy all year in 2016 and if he'd played that season with the Saints he could have made 1200 yards. Not a stretch.  Cooks had 1150 and Lee gets similar separation with better top end speed.

Lee is not faster off the Line or at the top end than Cooks, no way. Lee has a little more muscle which to your point works to his benefit.
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#23

(07-27-2017, 07:12 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(07-27-2017, 06:48 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: I always enjoy reading your posts, Bullseye.  

I read a lot about how hard it has become to evaluate college offensive linemen who play in these wacky college offenses.  But since Alabama plays a pro-style offense, that should make it easier to project how their offensive linemen will do in the NFL.   This give me some hope that Cam Robinson can successfully make the jump.

The thing that gives me hope is how Robinson performed against top pass rushers.  He held up well against Garrett, Lawson from Clemson, Lawson (?) from Auburn, and Key, among others.  Tennessee's Barnett is the only one to leap to mind that had success against him.

Question: Suppose Albert and Robinson compete to a draw at LT.

Who do you start at that position and why?

(07-26-2017, 08:57 PM)copycat Wrote: Good read as always Bullseye.  I am curious as to why you are comparing Blair Brown's development to Telvin's?  I see Blair as the replacement to Poz with Smith, Jack and Brown hopefully being long time fixtures at the line backing corps.


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When I initially replied to your post, the relevance of your avatar did not register with me.

Did you watch much Ohio football?  If so, I readily defer to your analysis at this point.  What did you think of Brown?


ESPN3 has been a godsend for me. To be able to stream and project to the 52" TV MAC games is like a gift from the football gods.

With that said I have watched Brown cover side to side, disrupt the backfield and take on a running back 1 on 1. Granted against lesser competition than a power 5 conference but to me having 3 athletic LB's like Smith, Jack and Brown on the field at the same time could potentially reek havoc on an offensive game plan. All 3 could drop into coverage or blitz or take on the run. Speed kills and if Brown can make the jump from the MAC to the NFL this team is set for years to come. That of course is the big question.


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Original Season Ticket Holder - Retired  1995 - 2020


At some point you just have to let go of what you thought should happen and live in what is happening.
 

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#24

(07-27-2017, 07:41 PM)copycat Wrote:
(07-27-2017, 07:12 AM)Bullseye Wrote: The thing that gives me hope is how Robinson performed against top pass rushers.  He held up well against Garrett, Lawson from Clemson, Lawson (?) from Auburn, and Key, among others.  Tennessee's Barnett is the only one to leap to mind that had success against him.

Question: Suppose Albert and Robinson compete to a draw at LT.

Who do you start at that position and why?


When I initially replied to your post, the relevance of your avatar did not register with me.

Did you watch much Ohio football?  If so, I readily defer to your analysis at this point.  What did you think of Brown?


ESPN3 has been a godsend for me. To be able to stream and project to the 52" TV MAC games is like a gift from the football gods.  

With that said I have watched Brown cover side to side, disrupt the backfield and take on a running back 1 on 1.  Granted against lesser competition than a power 5 conference but to me having 3 athletic LB's like Smith, Jack and Brown on the field at the same time could potentially reek havoc on an offensive game plan. All 3 could drop into coverage or blitz or take on the run. Speed kills and if Brown can make the jump from the MAC to the NFL this team is set for years to come. That of course is the big question.


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See, based upon what I've read before and your description of his athleticism here, that screams will to me, especially given his size.

Do you base your analysis of him replacing Poz on Smith more likely remaining here than Poz, or do you think based on his physical traits, he fits better as a Sam?    Please elaborate.  Did he play Sam at Ohio?  If so, how did he hold up at the point of attack against TEs?

On an aside, that Ohio LB corps must have been something to have two guys drafted in the mid rounds, which makes me wonder (positively) about their coaching.  Ordinarily Ohio doesn't register much with me when I watch college football, but I think I will make more of an effort to watch them this year.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#25

(07-27-2017, 05:05 PM)TheAll22 Wrote:
(07-27-2017, 02:33 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: Homer sentiment? Nah. 

Lee was healthy all year in 2016 and if he'd played that season with the Saints he could have made 1200 yards. Not a stretch.  Cooks had 1150 and Lee gets similar separation with better top end speed.

Lee is not faster off the Line or at the top end than Cooks, no way. Lee has a little more muscle which to your point works to his benefit.

I have to give you some leverage here.  Lee may not be as twitchy-fast off the line, but since his rookie year to 2016 he got much better at being physical and beating the press. He has an edge on Cooks there.  They are similar at the top end speed - but the internet hype gives Cooks an edge there, though Lee's track times at USC put him right in the same category. 

My point is that they are similar enough in skill-sets to suggest that Lee would have similar production with a QB of Brees caliber. 

Seriously - when I set out to do arm-chair-geek all22 research on Bortles' 2016 season --- one thing that stood out glaringly was how often Lee was wide open. I think he'll be a great asset to this team or another one if he stays healthy and has a quality QB to work with.  This is not homer talk. It's honest amateur analysis.
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#26

(07-27-2017, 08:01 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(07-27-2017, 07:41 PM)copycat Wrote: ESPN3 has been a godsend for me. To be able to stream and project to the 52" TV MAC games is like a gift from the football gods.  

With that said I have watched Brown cover side to side, disrupt the backfield and take on a running back 1 on 1.  Granted against lesser competition than a power 5 conference but to me having 3 athletic LB's like Smith, Jack and Brown on the field at the same time could potentially reek havoc on an offensive game plan. All 3 could drop into coverage or blitz or take on the run. Speed kills and if Brown can make the jump from the MAC to the NFL this team is set for years to come. That of course is the big question.


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See, based upon what I've read before and your description of his athleticism here, that screams will to me, especially given his size.

Do you base your analysis of him replacing Poz on Smith more likely remaining here than Poz, or do you think based on his physical traits, he fits better as a Sam?    Please elaborate.  Did he play Sam at Ohio?  If so, how did he hold up at the point of attack against TEs?

On an aside, that Ohio LB corps must have been something to have two guys drafted in the mid rounds, which makes me wonder (positively) about their coaching.  Ordinarily Ohio doesn't register much with me when I watch college football, but I think I will make more of an effort to watch them this year.


I agree he is physically more geared to play the weak side in the NFL but he did play the run extremely well. He played inside at Ohio so he did it all. Blair was a tackling machine and ranked near the top in all of FBS for tackles. Here is a scouting report from PFF

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/dr...wn-lb-ohio

Tarell Basham played DE at Ohio not LB. Frank Solich is the head coach there. After getting ran out at Nebraska he has found a home at OU and appears to be content.


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At some point you just have to let go of what you thought should happen and live in what is happening.
 

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#27

(07-27-2017, 10:44 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(07-27-2017, 05:05 PM)TheAll22 Wrote: Lee is not faster off the Line or at the top end than Cooks, no way. Lee has a little more muscle which to your point works to his benefit.

I have to give you some leverage here.  Lee may not be as twitchy-fast off the line, but since his rookie year to 2016 he got much better at being physical and beating the press. He has an edge on Cooks there.  They are similar at the top end speed - but the internet hype gives Cooks an edge there, though Lee's track times at USC put him right in the same category. 

My point is that they are similar enough in skill-sets to suggest that Lee would have similar production with a QB of Brees caliber. 

Seriously - when I set out to do arm-chair-geek all22 research on Bortles' 2016 season --- one thing that stood out glaringly was how often Lee was wide open. I think he'll be a great asset to this team or another one if he stays healthy and has a quality QB to work with.  This is not homer talk. It's honest amateur analysis.

I totally get what you are saying though! I did not mean to offend you by saying homer (I think so many people say homer with a negative connotation)

It's great amateur analysis. I think since Lee is usually the 4th or 5th read. This is a good explanation for a lack of balls going to Lee. I think you are onto something there because Brees sees all of his receivers, I've never studied him but Bree is one of the best at fooling defenses with his tendencies and where he looks pre snap and when a play breaks. The way he manipulates defenses with being able to see all of his reads so quickly. there is a mental way to do this that I can't explain. I'm sure you've heard of QB's that stare down their receivers but it's something along those lines.

Something you should do when you have the time to watch A22 film is something I did at Rutgers. We would break down where the QB checks off. Go through an entire game and watch who Bortles looks at when he breaks the huddle, who his head leans toward and also when the snap breaks, where does his head turn. Many QB's indirectly looking at their first read or intended target, it's human nature to look at your first read before you snap the ball and also during the play. Hips are also a good indication but or a defensive back the only thing you'll be able to see is his head. Notice how often he looks at Robinson and then throws to Robinson. It will drive you insane compared to a guy like Brees. I think a huge reason Robinson's production dropped was that of tendency analysis like this.
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#28

(07-28-2017, 10:14 AM)TheAll22 Wrote:
(07-27-2017, 10:44 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: I have to give you some leverage here.  Lee may not be as twitchy-fast off the line, but since his rookie year to 2016 he got much better at being physical and beating the press. He has an edge on Cooks there.  They are similar at the top end speed - but the internet hype gives Cooks an edge there, though Lee's track times at USC put him right in the same category. 

My point is that they are similar enough in skill-sets to suggest that Lee would have similar production with a QB of Brees caliber. 

Seriously - when I set out to do arm-chair-geek all22 research on Bortles' 2016 season --- one thing that stood out glaringly was how often Lee was wide open. I think he'll be a great asset to this team or another one if he stays healthy and has a quality QB to work with.  This is not homer talk. It's honest amateur analysis.

I totally get what you are saying though! I did not mean to offend you by saying homer (I think so many people say homer with a negative connotation)

It's great amateur analysis. I think since Lee is usually the 4th or 5th read. This is a good explanation for a lack of balls going to Lee. I think you are onto something there because Brees sees all of his receivers, I've never studied him but Bree is one of the best at fooling defenses with his tendencies and where he looks pre snap and when a play breaks. The way he manipulates defenses with being able to see all of his reads so quickly. there is a mental way to do this that I can't explain. I'm sure you've heard of QB's that stare down their receivers but it's something along those lines.

Something you should do when you have the time to watch A22 film is something I did at Rutgers. We would break down where the QB checks off. Go through an entire game and watch who Bortles looks at when he breaks the huddle, who his head leans toward and also when the snap breaks, where does his head turn. Many QB's indirectly looking at their first read or intended target, it's human nature to look at your first read before you snap the ball and also during the play. Hips are also a good indication but or a defensive back the only thing you'll be able to see is his head. Notice how often he looks at Robinson and then throws to Robinson. It will drive you insane compared to a guy like Brees. I think a huge reason Robinson's production dropped was that of tendency analysis like this.

Understood.
Thanks. 
And, yes, this last paragraph ^ is a big factor in Bortles' shortcomings. 

It will be interesting to see how the Marrone/Hackett playbook affects this aspect of Blake's game. 

To what degree do they attempt to mitigate his bad habits? 
Or do they instead attempt to make him become better at going through a progression  - and delivering with better timing and less "telegraphing" to the defense? 

Fingers crossed that whatever their plan is  - it works -  and it gets a big boost from the ground game.
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#29

I see they had Blair playing Sam last night. The only reason I stayed as long as I did.
Original Season Ticket Holder - Retired  1995 - 2020


At some point you just have to let go of what you thought should happen and live in what is happening.
 

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#30

@seifertespn "Borderline irresponsible" for #Jaguars to not plan QB competition before now -- @ESPNdirocco. Yep. https://t.co/HfQsKd97IQ?amp=1


so true. Been saying this since January.
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#31
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2018, 05:13 PM by Bullseye.)

I am bumping this because I thought the WR discussion was interesting.  I was way wrong on keeping AR15.

Question:  if the Jaguars were coming off of an AFC championship appearance this time last year, do you think Albert would have quit or not?  I think so.  Sometimesguys hearts just aren't in it.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#32

(05-03-2018, 04:09 PM)Bullseye Wrote: I am bumping this because I thought the WR discussion was interesting.  I was way wrong on Keepin AR15.

Question:  if the Jaguars were coming off of an AFC championship appearance this time last year, do you think Albert would have quit or not?  I think so.  Sometimesguys hearts just aren't in it.

I think he would have quit no matter what.  Takes heart to play football and when you have had it... well you've had it.  Football isn't some part time job anymore and TC is demanding.
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Patience, Persistence, and Piss Poor General Managers.
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#33

(05-03-2018, 04:17 PM)I MoJagFan Wrote:
(05-03-2018, 04:09 PM)Bullseye Wrote: I am bumping this because I thought the WR discussion was interesting.  I was way wrong on Keepin AR15.

Question:  if the Jaguars were coming off of an AFC championship appearance this time last year, do you think Albert would have quit or not?  I think so.  Sometimesguys hearts just aren't in it.

I think he would have quit no matter what.  Takes heart to play football and when you have had it... well you've had it.  Football isn't some part time job anymore and TC is demanding.

Didn’t TC make another player quit back in the “glory days”?
"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."
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#34
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2018, 05:09 PM by Bullseye.)

(05-03-2018, 04:17 PM)MoJagFan Wrote:
(05-03-2018, 04:09 PM)Bullseye Wrote: I am bumping this because I thought the WR discussion was interesting.  I was way wrong on Keepin AR15.

Question:  if the Jaguars were coming off of an AFC championship appearance this time last year, do you think Albert would have quit or not?  I think so.  Sometimesguys hearts just aren't in it.

I think he would have quit no matter what.  Takes heart to play football and when you have had it... well you've had it.  Football isn't some part time job anymore and TC is demanding.
  • I think Marrone had something to do with that too.  
Funny how this time last year, O line was considered the team's weak spot.  Now I would say it is the strength of the offense.  I could only imagine how people would feel about this OL had we drafted Hernandez.  However, if what I learned about Richardson and Adams is true, our opinions of the OL will increase anyway.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#35
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2018, 05:14 PM by Bullseye.)

(05-03-2018, 04:36 PM)knarnn Wrote:
(05-03-2018, 04:17 PM)I MoJagFan Wrote: I think he would have quit no matter what.  Takes heart to play football and when you have had it... well you've had it.  Football isn't some part time job anymore and TC is demanding.

Didn’t TC make another player quit back in the “glory days”?

I remember the first year he chased off Ferric Collons.  Don't ask me how I remember that.  At this point I am amazed I do.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#36
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2018, 06:27 PM by knarnn.)

(05-03-2018, 05:11 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(05-03-2018, 04:36 PM)knarnn Wrote: Didn’t TC make another player quit back in the “glory days”?

I remember the first year he chased off Ferric Collons.  Don't ask me how I remember that.  At this point I am amazed I do.

That may have been who I was thinking of. I believe TC cut him on the spot in the middle of practice at our first ever mini camp.

Why do we remember that? lol
"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."
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#37

(05-03-2018, 06:27 PM)knarnn Wrote:
(05-03-2018, 05:11 PM)Bullseye Wrote: I remember the first year he chased off Ferric Collons.  Don't ask me how I remember that.  At this point I am amazed I do.

That may have been who I was thinking of. I believe TC cut him on the spot in the middle of practice at our first ever mini camp.

Why do we remember that? lol

As I recall, he got into a fight and threw a helmet.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#38

(05-03-2018, 06:44 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(05-03-2018, 06:27 PM)knarnn Wrote: That may have been who I was thinking of. I believe TC cut him on the spot in the middle of practice at our first ever mini camp.

Why do we remember that? lol

As I recall, he got into a fight and threw a helmet.

Yup, he threw his helmet and when told to go get it he declined.  Bye Bye!
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At some point you just have to let go of what you thought should happen and live in what is happening.
 

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