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NFL Tiebreaker Procedures

#1
(This post was last modified: 11-17-2017, 01:11 AM by Bullseye.)

As we proceed through the second half of the season at the very least tied for first place after this weekend, I thought now would be a good time to post the tiebreaker procedures in case when all is said and done, we end up with the same record as the tacks.
The complete tiebreaker procedures can be found here.

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

For the purposes of this discussion I will discuss the most relevant tiebreaker to us, Divisional tiebreaker, two teams.

Quote:TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs
  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

Naturally, it is my hope that the Jaguars have the division sewn up prior to week 17 so this doesn't matter.  If not, naturally we'll need to win to win the division, if not outright, due to tiebreakers.  So which of the tiebreakers could work to the Jaguars' advantage? 

It's impossible to definitively state at this point, given there are still seven games left to play.  Nevertheless, we can start to speculate.

Head to head is obvious.  Will not discuss, other than to say as of now, Tennessee has the edge here if the teams are within a game of each other headed into the final week.

We don't know about divisional record yet, since the NFL scheduling has changed to place a late season emphasis on divisional games.  Currently, the Jaguars divisional record is 2-1 with wins over the Texans and Colts, but a loss to the tacks.  The tacks are 2-1, with wins over the Jaguars and Colts and a loss to the Texans.

The third tiebreaker-best W-L-T percentage within common games-might get interesting.  We beat the Texans while they lost to the Texans.  We beat the Steelers while they lost to the Steelers.  We both beat Baltimore, and Cincinnati and Indy.  There are still common games against the Browns, Rams, Cards and Seahawks remaining, but right now, the Jaguars have the edge in common games.

As it currently stands, the Jaguars have the edge in tiebreaker #4, which is best W-L-T % in conference games.  As of this post, which includes the tack loss in Pukesburgh, the tacks are 5-4 in conference games.  The Jaguars currently sit at 6-2 heading into Sunday's game at Cleveland.

Strength of victory..." refers to the combined winning percentages of the opponents that a particular team has beaten."

Strength of schedule would then refer to the combined winning percentages of the opponents on a particular team's schedule.

The tie breakers that could theoretically benefit the Jaguars the most at this point, the two net points tiebreakers, do not factor in directly until tiebreakers 9 & 10, though could theoretically play factor in 7 & 8 because the lopsided scores we earned/didn't earn will naturally impact the teams rankings in terms of points scored and allowed.  It seems as though the tacks losing 57-14 to the Texans and 40-17 to Pittsburgh could theoretically help boost the ranking among conference/all teams in points scored and points allowed than the 44-7, 29-7, 27-0, and 30-9 wins we earned against the Ravens, Texans, Colts and Steelers, respectively, although because all of these games referenced above represent common games, it would effect both teams .  But it's scary to think a team could somehow be awarded for being blown out of a game and another be penalized for blowing a team out if the blowout games were not to common opponents. To me, tiebreakers 7-8 should be lower in the order than 9 & 10.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#2

Great post as always Bullseye. I think we maintain a game lead over the Tacks until the matchup with them in 17. If we win we win the division and if we lose then we are a wild card team. I think it will be a tough game and probably close then our last game with them. It really might come down to who racks up more injuries between now and then to give one or the other an edge.
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#3
(This post was last modified: 11-18-2017, 08:54 AM by Deacon.)

In the vein of this thread, I thought it might also be handy to have the remaining Schedules for both teams available. I'll try to update this as the season progresses.

Jacksonville (6-3):
@ Cleveland 
@ Arizona
Indianapolis
Seattle
Houston 
@ San Francisco
@ Tennessee

Tennessee (6-4):
@ Pittsburgh L
@ Indianapolis
Houston
@ Arizona
@ San Francisco
Los Angeles Rams
Jacksonville
I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!
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#4

The Tacks are 6 and 4, not 5 and 4.  Although I do support stripping them of a win just for being the Tacks. Banana
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#5

(11-17-2017, 08:36 AM)MyBloodIsTeal Wrote: Great post as always Bullseye.  I think we maintain a game lead over the Tacks until the matchup with them in 17.  If we win we win the division and if we lose then we are a wild card team.  I think it will be a tough game and probably close then our last game with them.  It really might come down to who racks up more injuries between now and then to give one or the other an edge.

I tend to agree with this, though I think there is an increased possibility they could lose another because they host the Rams right before us. 

Not to disrespect the remaining teams on our schedule, but Seattle is the one team remaining on our schedule aside from Tennessee that gives me considerable trepidation, and now that Sherman is out for the year, I am a little less concerned about that game than I otherwise would be.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#6
(This post was last modified: 11-17-2017, 12:57 PM by Bullseye.)

As it stands now, we are currently the 3rd seed over KC and behind NE and Pittsburgh.

Here are the tie breakers for playoff seeding.  Though they are listed as the Wild card tiebreakers, they apply to the division winners/seeding.


Quote:TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

   If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
   If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

   Head-to-head, if applicable.
   Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
   Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
   Strength of victory.
   Strength of schedule.
   Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
   Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
   Best net points in conference games.
   Best net points in all games.
   Best net touchdowns in all games.
   Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

   Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
   Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
   Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
   Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
   Strength of victory.
   Strength of schedule.
   Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
   Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
   Best net points in conference games.
   Best net points in all games.
   Best net touchdowns in all games.
   Coin toss

Applying the above to our current situation, we'd obviously be placed behind New England and Pittsburgh because they have better overall records by a game.  We'd currently be seeded ahead of KC if the playoffs started today, because of a better conference record (# 2 in two team tiebreaker).
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#7

(11-17-2017, 09:06 AM)Deacon Wrote: In the vein of this thread, I thought it might also be handy to have the remaining Schedules for both teams available. I'll try to update this as the season progresses.

Jacksonville (7-3):
@ Cleveland   W
@ Arizona
Indianapolis
Seattle
Houston 
@ San Francisco
@ Tennessee

Tennessee (6-4):
@ Pittsburgh L
@ Indianapolis
Houston
@ Arizona
@ San Francisco
Los Angeles Rams
Jacksonville

Just updated this, Deacon.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#8
(This post was last modified: 11-20-2017, 07:29 PM by Deacon.)

(11-20-2017, 09:13 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(11-17-2017, 09:06 AM)Deacon Wrote: In the vein of this thread, I thought it might also be handy to have the remaining Schedules for both teams available. I'll try to update this as the season progresses.

Jacksonville (7-3):
@ Cleveland  W
@ Arizona
Indianapolis
Seattle
Houston 
@ San Francisco
@ Tennessee

Tennessee (6-4):
@ Pittsburgh L
@ Indianapolis
Houston
@ Arizona
@ San Francisco
Los Angeles Rams
Jacksonville

Just updated this, Deacon.
'Preciate it.
I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!
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#9

(11-17-2017, 09:06 AM)Deacon Wrote: In the vein of this thread, I thought it might also be handy to have the remaining Schedules for both teams available. I'll try to update this as the season progresses.

Jacksonville (7-4):
@ Cleveland   W
@ Arizona       L
Indianapolis
Seattle
Houston 
@ San Francisco
@ Tennessee

Tennessee (7-4):
@ Pittsburgh L
@ Indianapolis  W
Houston
@ Arizona
@ San Francisco
Los Angeles Rams
Jacksonville

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#10

(11-28-2017, 10:06 AM)Bullseye Wrote: Updated

(11-17-2017, 09:06 AM)Deacon Wrote: In the vein of this thread, I thought it might also be handy to have the remaining Schedules for both teams available. I'll try to update this as the season progresses.

Jacksonville (8-4):
@ Cleveland   W
@ Arizona       L
Indianapolis    W
Seattle
Houston 
@ San Francisco
@ Tennessee

Tennessee (8-4):
@ Pittsburgh     L
@ Indianapolis  W
Houston           W
@ Arizona
@ San Francisco
Los Angeles Rams
Jacksonville

I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!
Reply

#11

Thank you Deacon.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#12

(11-17-2017, 09:06 AM)Deacon Wrote: In the vein of this thread, I thought it might also be handy to have the remaining Schedules for both teams available. I'll try to update this as the season progresses.

Jacksonville (9-4):
@ Cleveland W
@ Arizona L
Indianapolis W
Seattle W
Houston 
@ San Francisco
@ Tennessee

Tennessee (8-5):
@ Pittsburgh L
@ Indianapolis W
Houston W
@ Arizona L
@ San Francisco
Los Angeles Rams
Jacksonville



Updated
I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!
Reply

#13

(11-17-2017, 09:06 AM)Deacon Wrote: Updated


In the vein of this thread, I thought it might also be handy to have the remaining Schedules for both teams available. I'll try to update this as the season progresses.

Jacksonville (10 - 4):
@ Cleveland W
@ Arizona L
Indianapolis W
Seattle W
Houston W
@ San Francisco
@ Tennessee

Tennessee (8 - 6):
@ Pittsburgh L
@ Indianapolis W
Houston W
@ Arizona L
@ San Francisco L
Los Angeles Rams
Jacksonville

I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!
Reply

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