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Alabama -- In or Out?

#1

My prediction

Oklahoma - in with win.  Bama in with an Oklahoma loss

SEC Champion - IN
ACC Champion - IN
BIG Ten Champion - IN (even if OSU beats Wisconsin)

IF the committee selects Bama over OSU, they are totally discounting the Big 10 which is a critical conference for TV ratings.  This would essentially narrow the BCS map to the Southeast and Oklahoma.  Adding OSU or Wisconsin to the mix would be a very non-confrontational move that is easily justified by representation of 4 Big-5 conferences.

Thoughts?  Does the selection committee select Bama over OSU (if OSU beats Wisc by 3) ?  For the reasons stated above, I think OSU is in with a win and Bama only gets in with a TCU victory over Oklahoma.
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#2
(This post was last modified: 11-27-2017, 02:43 PM by rfc17.)

If Oklahoma and Wisconsin win, then the committee will have nothing to think about. SEC champ, ACC champ, Wisconsin, Oklahoma. Saying that, I think there are two scenarios which would create some serious conversation.

1) If Oklahoma wins and Ohio St wins. The point of your thread... do you take a 1 loss Bama over 2 loss Ohio St? The committee's job isn't to pick the four best conference champs, it's to pick the four best teams. My gut tells me they really wouldnt want to put 2 teams in from the same conference if they can avoid it. And Ohio St should be close enough to Bama in the rankings that it'd be easy for the committee to leapfrog them. Plus Bama's resume isn't obviously better. Ohio St's two best wins(Penn St and Wisconsin) would be better than Bama's best win which would help offset the fact Ohio St has more losses including a horrific one to Iowa. I think it'll be really interesting to see where these teams are in the newest ranking. But my gut tells me the committee takes Ohio St. I personally am on the fence. That loss to Iowa is tough for me to overlook.

2)If Oklahoma loses and Ohio St wins. I find this to be far and away the most interesting scenario. I don't see how in the world you take 2 loss Ohio St over 2 loss Oklahoma considering the fact the Sooners beat them pretty easily on the road in Columbus. They'll have just as many top 10 wins, better losses, and obviously the head to head victory on the road. Does Ohio St get a pass due to timing because their second loss was a 30 point drubbing in the regular season while Oklahoma's came in the conference title game in a rematch against what would be a top 10 team they had already beat? Seems crazy to me. The only trump card Ohio St has is they can say they were conference champs but that didnt apply last year obviously. A 2 loss OU deserves to be in over Ohio St. Now lets say reason prevails and you agree Oklahoma is more deserving than Ohio St, what does that mean for Bama? In scenario 1, we already decided Ohio St was in over Bama. Nothing else has changed that would suggest Bama should now get in over Ohio St. So if we've got OU over Ohio St and Ohio St over Bama, shouldnt OU be in over Bama? So now who do you take for the four playoff teams? Would you now include Bama over Ohio St even though nothing at all is different now? Can you include OU and leave out Big 12 champ TCU who also has just two losses and just beat them? It starts to become pretty complicated. And I think the easy way out would be to just take Ohio St and Bama. But that would make a mockery of the system if you're best reasoning for excluding Oklahoma instead of Ohio St has nothing to do with win/loss records, performance, head to head matchup, etc... but instead because it makes this exercise easier for you as the committee.


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#3

(11-27-2017, 02:43 PM)rfc17 Wrote: If Oklahoma and Wisconsin win, then the committee will have nothing to think about.  SEC champ, ACC champ, Wisconsin, Oklahoma.  Saying that, I think there are two scenarios which would create some serious conversation.

1) If Oklahoma wins and Ohio St wins.  The point of your thread... do you take a 1 loss Bama over 2 loss Ohio St?  The committee's job isn't to pick the four best conference champs, it's to pick the four best teams.  My gut tells me they really wouldnt want to put 2 teams in from the same conference if they can avoid it.  And Ohio St should be close enough to Bama in the rankings that it'd be easy for the committee to leapfrog them.  Plus Bama's resume isn't obviously better.  Ohio St's two best wins(Penn St and Wisconsin) would be better than Bama's best win which would help offset the fact Ohio St has more losses including a horrific one to Iowa.  I think it'll be really interesting to see where these teams are in the newest ranking.  But my gut tells me the committee takes Ohio St.  I personally am on the fence.  That loss to Iowa is tough for me to overlook.

2)If Oklahoma loses and Ohio St wins.  I find this to be far and away the most interesting scenario.  I don't see how in the world you take 2 loss Ohio St over 2 loss Oklahoma considering the fact the Sooners beat them pretty easily on the road in Columbus.  They'll have just as many top 10 wins, better losses, and obviously the head to head victory on the road.  Does Ohio St get a pass due to timing because their second loss was a 30 point drubbing in the regular season while Oklahoma's came in the conference title game in a rematch against what would be a top 10 team they had already beat?  Seems crazy to me.  The only trump card Ohio St has is they can say they were conference champs but that didnt apply last year obviously.  A 2 loss OU deserves to be in over Ohio St.  Now lets say reason prevails and you agree Oklahoma is more deserving than Ohio St, what does that mean for Bama?  In scenario 1, we already decided Ohio St was in over Bama.  Nothing else has changed that would suggest Bama should now get in over Ohio St.  So if we've got OU over Ohio St and Ohio St over Bama, shouldnt OU be in over Bama?  So now who do you take for the four playoff teams?  Would you now include Bama over Ohio St even though nothing at all is different now?  Can you include OU and leave out Big 12 champ TCU who also has just two losses and just beat them?  It starts to become pretty complicated.  And I think the easy way out would be to just take Ohio St and Bama.  But that would make a mockery of the system if you're best reasoning for excluding Oklahoma instead of Ohio St has nothing to do with win/loss records, performance, head to head matchup, etc...  but instead because it makes this exercise easier for you as the committee.

Dang, your scenario #2 is quite interesting.  I never thought about the committee having to select 2 teams of the 3 or 4 team scenario that includes OK-OSU-Bama-TCU.  I think in that case, they select Bama & OSU since losing a conference championship could also place Miami in the 2-loss mix as well (assuming Clemson wins)
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#4

Ohio State does NOT deserve to get in- even if they beat Wisconsin. They have 2 BAD losses, especially to Iowa. I would take the following 4:

1. Oklahoma (if they win next game).
2. Auburn vs. GA. winner
3. Clemson
4. Wisconsin (with a win over Ohio State) or Alabama (if Wisconsin loses)
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#5

(11-27-2017, 04:21 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Dang, your scenario #2 is quite interesting.  I never thought about the committee having to select 2 teams of the 3 or 4 team scenario that includes OK-OSU-Bama-TCU.  I think in that case, they select Bama & OSU since losing a conference championship could also place Miami in the 2-loss mix as well (assuming Clemson wins)

I do think that second scenario gets a little easier if you assume a one loss Bama should get in over a 2 loss conference Champ Ohio St.  Then all you'd be deciding is the 4th and final spot.  Do you take 2 loss Ohio St?  2 loss Oklahoma?  2 loss Big12 champ TCU?  2 loss ACC championship game loser?  I still think Ohio St would be out.  I just don't think OU can fall past them in any scenario.  Then do you take OU over a 2 loss TCU team that just beat them?  If Clemson were to lose to Miami, would you take a 2 loss Clemson over both a 2 loss OU and 2 loss TCU?  And would that depend on if Auburn (who Clemson beat this year) wins the SEC?

And does Bama's case change if Auburn wins the SEC?  I'd have to think so.  A one loss Bama whose only defeat is on the road to the SEC champion is a lot more compelling than if it's to a non-champion w/ 3 losses of their own.  Perhaps the Bama/Ohio St question will be determined by the winner of the SEC championship game.


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#6

I agree with every perspective above and do believe Bama is better than OSU but I can't see the committee leaving out a Big 10 team now that their conference has earned an increased level of respectability (versus where they were ~ 7 years ago or so when the SEC dominated)

Conversely, I'm not sure the committee is ready to add a rematch of Clemson vs OSU considering how bad last years BCS semi-final turned out.
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#7

I think this is how it shakes out.
Auburn
Big 10 champ
Clemson
Oklahoma
All 1 loss or better conference champions.

Bama has a shot IMO, IF, TCU wins Big 12, and/or Miami beats Clemson.
A 1 loss Bama team should slide in over a 2 loss Big 12 champion and/or 2 loss Clemson.
Not sure Miami is worthy of a spot even if they win the ACC...


Of course... it could get real crazy if UGA upsets Auburn...

What if UGA wins, OSU wins, Miami and TCU win...

I'd hate to have to try and figure all that out.
Under that scenario I would guess...
OSU/Bama/UGA/TCU?

What if... UCF straight dominates Memphis in the AAC championship and finishes AAC champ with a 12-0 record.... do the slide up enough?
Doubtful... but what if...


I think this is the perfect season to push for a 6-8 team playoff.
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#8

[Image: saban-quotejpg-56159af84c172152.jpg]
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#9

(11-29-2017, 02:26 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [Image: saban-quotejpg-56159af84c172152.jpg]

Nice... I agree with both points though.

You SHOULD have to win your conference to get in the CFP
But if some team wins the Big12 or Pac12 vs lesser opponents and has 2 losses do they really deserve it?

I'm glad it isn't on me to decide... seems stressful lol.

UCF should at least be in the discussion... and sitting at 14 gives them no chance.
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#10

In a 4 team playoff, I think you should need to win your conference championship to get in even though I think Alabama is probably one of the 4 best teams in college football this year. I think it would be more fair if there were just 4 super conferences for those 4 teams to emerge from though. In an 8 team playoff, you could take a non-conference champion or two and an 8 team playoff is more realistic than a 4 super conference environment. I just don't know where they squeeze the extra games in at though. Do they start earlier in December or do they push the championship game back another week?
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#11

This is why college football is the worst. Certain teams (Like UCF) will never have a chance to compete for a national championship even though they're undefeated. Preseason rankings dictate a lot of how the season plays out before any game is even played. The polls clearly love Ohio State and if they win this weekend, you can almost bet the house that they will make the final 4.

College Basketball >>>>>>>> College Football
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#12

(11-30-2017, 12:52 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: In a 4 team playoff, I think you should need to win your conference championship to get in even though I think Alabama is probably one of the 4 best teams in college football this year.  I think it would be more fair if there were just 4 super conferences for those 4 teams to emerge from though.  In an 8 team playoff, you could take a non-conference champion or two and an 8 team playoff is more realistic than a 4 super conference environment.  I just don't know where they squeeze the extra games in at though.  Do they start earlier in December or do they push the championship game back another week?

Those 5-6 win teams that get bowl games would just have to give em up so that the playoff could start sooner, imo.
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#13

Sounds like I'm the contrarian here but I don't think you should have to win your conference to get into the playoffs.  I want the 4 best teams.  Just too plausible that one conference could have two of the best teams in the country.  If you had an 8 team playoff, then it would make more sense to me to guarantee spots for conference champs.  Maybe guarantee the 5 best conferences get their champion in and then take 3 at large teams.  One of which could be guaranteed to a mid tier conference champ like UCF if they go undefeated and play a worthy enough schedule.


And I think this discussion is part of the fear of playoffs in the first place.  4 teams is fun but it'll never be enough.  We move to 8 and people will want 16.  Move to 16 some people will want 32.  It never stops.  Even 8 starts to jeopardize the regular season to a degree.... and any system that guarantees conference champions definitely makes out of conference games a lot more irrelevant.


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#14

(11-30-2017, 01:40 PM)rfc17 Wrote: Sounds like I'm the contrarian here but I don't think you should have to win your conference to get into the playoffs.  I want the 4 best teams.  Just too plausible that one conference could have two of the best teams in the country.  If you had an 8 team playoff, then it would make more sense to me to guarantee spots for conference champs.  Maybe guarantee the 5 best conferences get their champion in and then take 3 at large teams.  One of which could be guaranteed to a mid tier conference champ like UCF if they go undefeated and play a worthy enough schedule.


And I think this discussion is part of the fear of playoffs in the first place.  4 teams is fun but it'll never be enough.  We move to 8 and people will want 16.  Move to 16 some people will want 32.  It never stops.  Even 8 starts to jeopardize the regular season to a degree.... and any system that guarantees conference champions definitely makes out of conference games a lot more irrelevant.
So Bama doesn't deserve a chance to compete for a national championship because they lost 1 game to Auburn? Ohio State has 2 losses and may still get in. They got obliterated at Iowa during the regular season so the regular season clearly doesn't mean that much.

This whole "Jeopardize the regular season" talk is nonsense. CFB regular season means less than preseason rankings and the date when you lose your game. Alabama loses the first game of the season to Auburn and I bet they're in. It's why Clemson is #1. It's why OU is 3rd. If OU had just lost to Iowa State, you still think they'd be 3? Highly doubtful.

I just think college football in general is a joke. Preseason rankings dictate everything and all these randos sitting in a room talking about who they think is best. Imagine if the NFL did this. It would drive people insane.
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#15

Preseason rankings are now irrelevant. Unless you believe the committee makes its choices based on polls which they aren't supposed to do.


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Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.
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#16
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2017, 03:57 PM by HURRICANE!!!.)

(11-30-2017, 12:52 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: In a 4 team playoff, I think you should need to win your conference championship to get in even though I think Alabama is probably one of the 4 best teams in college football this year.  I think it would be more fair if there were just 4 super conferences for those 4 teams to emerge from though.  In an 8 team playoff, you could take a non-conference champion or two and an 8 team playoff is more realistic than a 4 super conference environment.  I just don't know where they squeeze the extra games in at though.  Do they start earlier in December or do they push the championship game back another week?

I agree with having representation from each conference champion.  Regarding the extra game in an 8 team playoff, I'd suggest having the Quarterfinal the week 2 weeks after the conference champion games and having teams 1-4 host their game to reduce fan travel to 3 separate sites.  Each game (Conf Champtionship, Quarterfinal, SemiFinal, and Final) should be 2 weeks apart

(11-30-2017, 02:59 PM)rfc17 Wrote: Preseason rankings are now irrelevant. Unless you believe the committee makes its choices based on polls which they aren't supposed to do.

Crap !!  Are you telling me that FSU and Tennessee are out?
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#17

Cleanest way to do it IMO with the current conferences is to guarantee winners of the SEC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12 and PAC 12 automatic playoff berths. Add 3 at large berths and guarantee one of the 3 to any of the smaller conferences who produce an undefeated team. There’s always going to be an odd man out, but this playoff format guarantees every team has a path to the championship. Right now, UCF has beaten every team they’ve played and deserves a system that gives them an opportunity. I think they’d probably lose against better competition, but they as a team and we as an audience deserve to see how it unfolds.
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#18
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2017, 03:06 PM by HURRICANE!!!.)

(11-30-2017, 04:55 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: Cleanest way to do it IMO with the current conferences is to guarantee winners of the SEC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12 and PAC 12 automatic playoff berths.  Add 3 at large berths and guarantee one of the 3 to any of the smaller conferences who produce an undefeated team.  There’s always going to be an odd man out, but this playoff format guarantees every team has a path to the championship.  Right now, UCF has beaten every team they’ve played and deserves a system that gives them an opportunity.  I think they’d probably lose against better competition, but they as a team and we as an audience deserve to see how it unfolds.

Undefeated AND have beaten at least 2 teams in the Top 25.  This will prevent UCF, USF, and Memphis from scheduling teams like FAMU & Samford as automatic out-of-conference wins.
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#19

(11-30-2017, 04:55 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: Cleanest way to do it IMO with the current conferences is to guarantee winners of the SEC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12 and PAC 12 automatic playoff berths.  Add 3 at large berths and guarantee one of the 3 to any of the smaller conferences who produce an undefeated team.  There’s always going to be an odd man out, but this playoff format guarantees every team has a path to the championship.  Right now, UCF has beaten every team they’ve played and deserves a system that gives them an opportunity.  I think they’d probably lose against better competition, but they as a team and we as an audience deserve to see how it unfolds.
Amen.

Some people would still complain about 8 vs 9 but it would be a lot less complaining than what’s happening now.
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#20

Ohio St has no business being in the playoff.

Last year, Penn St beat them h2h, won the big 10 championship and ohio st still made it in over them. PSU did have two losses to their one, but I thought winning a conference mattered. At least that's what I was told when Ohio St got in two years ago over Baylor/TCU because the big 12 didn't have a championship game.

two losses this year, including getting stomped by freaking Iowa. Wisconsin also stinks, their best win is Northwestern and are only in the top 5 because they are in the big 10. If they got the UCF treatment, they wouldn't be in the top 20 with that schedule.

they have no argument to be in, but the committee seems to change their criteria year to year so they can make it. we'll see.
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