(03-16-2018, 09:23 AM)Bullseye Wrote: There is a long history of good to great QBs dropping to round 2 and beyond.  Joe Montana was a third round pick.  Boomer Esiason was a 2nd round pick after being considered by some experts to be a first rounder.  Brett Favre dropped to the 2nd round in 1991.  Perhaps most famously, Tom Brady was a 5th round pick.

That said, given the circumstances, if scouts see him as a first round talent, I see no way he falls to the 2nd round.  In fact, I maintain the Jaguars would likely need to trade up a great deal to acquire his services.

Let's assume that Allen, Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield all go in the top six picks or so,  leaving Rudolph on the board.

Now let's look at the teams outside of the top ten that could still use a QB.

Miami-Tanneyhill has not been healthy the past few years and Cutler is done.
Buffalo-will likely trade up into the top 5-6 to get their signal caller.
Arizona-does anyone really think they will be content hitching their long term wagon to Sam Bradford?
Batimore-Flacco has won a Super Bowl, but has been average since and is now 33.
L.A. Chargers-Rivers is still a capable QB, but is in his late 30s.
New Orleans-Brees is still a stud, but will be 40 by next year.  The Saints need to find his replacement.
Pittsburgh-Big Ben is still a capable QB, but like Rivers and Brees, is in his late 30s.
New England-Brady is in his 40s now, and they have to find a replacement since they traded Garoppolo.

This does not factor in a team like Green Bay, who has proven they are willing to stockpile talent at the QB position if one falls to them (See 2005 selection of Aaron Rodgers with Brett Favre on the roster) or the unexpected trade from the top of the 2nd to into the bottom of the first.  (i.e. a Colts team that trades with Buffalo out of the 3 spot back up into the first to take a QB to hedge against Luck being finished).

I am not opposed to the Jaguars drafting a guy like Mason Rudolph if, in their opinion, he is worthy to be a first round pick.

But if we decide to go that route, we should not assume or take any chances that he will be there at 29.  The presumption should be that he won't be there.

Those picks 15-17 will be a Bermuda triangle for those wanting Rudolph at the bottom of the first.  If somehow he makes it through those teams, then I could see the Jaguars trying hard to trade up. 

It's entirely possible, however, the Jaguars will have to exceed the price KC and Houston paid to trade up last year to ensure Rudolph is available, and have to trade up higher than 15 to do it.

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I know I am quoting myself here.  Though some of you would hasten to disagree, I'm not crazy.

A discussion in another thread on this same topic came up, and I thought I'd incorporate it here.

With the caveat that you have to take trade value charts with a grain of salt, here is one by drafttek.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

According to that one, the Packers pick #14 is worth 1100 points.

Per the same chart, our pick #29 is worth 640 points, for a difference of 460 points.

To make up the difference, using picks from this year's draft only, the Jaguars would have to give up the 2nd round pick, #61 overall (292 points), the 3rd round pick, #93 overall (128) and a 4th round pick, #129 overall (43 points).

640+292+128+43=1103 points.

Keep in mind, due to the Dareus trade, we don't have a 5th round pick this year.

For additional context, the Chiefs made a similar move last year, trading up from 27th overall to 10th overall, surrendering a 3rd round pick last year and this year's first.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2017/story/...ck-mahomes

The Texans also made a similar move last year, moving up 13 spots from 25 to 12, swapping first round picks last year and giving up this year's first round pick (which wound up being #4 overall).


Making the argument that the team is moving up fewer slots in this scenario-15 slots vs 17 slots- and is not trading into the top ten like the chiefs did last year, perhaps the cost would not be as high.

Examining a more recent trade-also involving the Bills-the Bills traded the 21st overall pick and LT Cordy Glenn to Cincinnati for the #12 overall selection.  So they gave up their first round pick plus a still in his prime LT (a premium position) to move up 9 spots.

Maybe a swap of firsts plus Fowler gets us to 14, with maybe a much later pick thrown in.

(Note-I do not want to see the team trade Fowler if at all possible, but given the Packers' need for a pass rusher, our presumptive desire for a QB for the purposes of this discussion, and the depth and talent at DE, Fowler seemed a logical trade inducement)

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