Okay, back to the stock market.

I am still thinking the stock market has not yet priced in the depth and duration of the oncoming recession.  I think it will be deep and long, and earnings will be severely reduced, and I think there's a better than even chance we are in for a bear market that lasts for several years.

This is my fear.  If I were a betting man, today I'd lean on the fact that our "stay home' mandate will extend through May which is not planned into the market selloff.  My real hope is we get some continued positives related to vaccine, stimulus', and oil.

Monday may be another crash once the weekend death rates are revealed.  Not sure what we can get today to turn around the 300 point hit the market is taking (11:20am)

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The gold market control mechanisms are breaking, which is not good for the US Dollar.

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Okay, back to the stock market.

I am still thinking the stock market has not yet priced in the depth and duration of the oncoming recession.  I think it will be deep and long, and earnings will be severely reduced, and I think there's a better than even chance we are in for a bear market that lasts for several years.

This is my fear.  If I were a betting man, today I'd lean on the fact that our "stay home' mandate will extend through May which is not planned into the market selloff.  My real hope is we get some continued positives related to vaccine, stimulus', and oil.

Monday may be another crash once the weekend death rates are revealed.  Not sure what we can get today to turn around the 300 point hit the market is taking (11:20am)

I am still struggling with the idea that revealing death numbers that were anticipated and frequently below projection is going to keep causing large scale changes. At the same time, employment numbers are going to stabilize and we shouldn't see millions of jobs lost again. The only real uncertainty left is a date that the restrictions will be lifted to allow businesses to reopen. Once we have that firmed up I don't anticipate any additional bad news that would offset with the positives you mentioned.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

This is my fear.  If I were a betting man, today I'd lean on the fact that our "stay home' mandate will extend through May which is not planned into the market selloff.  My real hope is we get some continued positives related to vaccine, stimulus', and oil.

Monday may be another crash once the weekend death rates are revealed.  Not sure what we can get today to turn around the 300 point hit the market is taking (11:20am)

I am still struggling with the idea that revealing death numbers that were anticipated and frequently below projection is going to keep causing large scale changes. At the same time, employment numbers are going to stabilize and we shouldn't see millions of jobs lost again. The only real uncertainty left is a date that the restrictions will be lifted to allow businesses to reopen. Once we have that firmed up I don't anticipate any additional bad news that would offset with the positives you mentioned.

FSG, you've mentioned it previously, but what source are you referencing with regard to death toll projections? Not the Imperial College one that everyone was slamming as alarmist, I hope.

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I'll play you in ping pong. 

This is my fear.  If I were a betting man, today I'd lean on the fact that our "stay home' mandate will extend through May which is not planned into the market selloff.  My real hope is we get some continued positives related to vaccine, stimulus', and oil.

Monday may be another crash once the weekend death rates are revealed.  Not sure what we can get today to turn around the 300 point hit the market is taking (11:20am)

I am still struggling with the idea that revealing death numbers that were anticipated and frequently below projection is going to keep causing large scale changes. At the same time, employment numbers are going to stabilize and we shouldn't see millions of jobs lost again. The only real uncertainty left is a date that the restrictions will be lifted to allow businesses to reopen. Once we have that firmed up I don't anticipate any additional bad news that would offset with the positives you mentioned.

At this point, it's not the death numbers that worry me.  It's the number of jobs lost, many lost permanently as small businesses close their doors for good, plus the amount of additional debt, both public and private, in an already deeply indebted world.   We're looking at 4 to 7 trillion dollars added to the federal debt, and trillions of dollars in additional credit card debt, business debt, all kinds of borrowing and money printing to get ourselves out of this.  

We're going to see a lot of bankruptcies.  Hotels, restaurants, all sorts of small businesses who could not afford even a one week shutdown, much less a 2 or 3 month shutdown.  A lot of businesses exist right on the edge, and the only way they can get through this is to either borrow money or go out of business.  

This is a worldwide disaster, too.  Our customers and suppliers all over the world are going through the same thing.  

You can't just send everyone home for a 2 or 3 month vacation and print or borrow the money to pay for it and then bounce right back like nothing happened.  And even if we lift the restrictions, a large percentage of the populace will decide to stay home anyway, because they don't want to catch this stuff.  A lot of people will decide they aren't going to a restaurant or a sporting event or any crowded place until Covid-19 is gone.  Really gone.  Not just pretend-gone, like lifting the restrictions would imply.  

It's what I have said from day one.  The disease has always worried me, but what has always worried me even more is our reaction to it.  I'm not saying we should or should not have shut down our economy like we have, but the effects of doing that are extremely damaging and will take a very long time to overcome.  

We won't be bouncing back by the end of the year.  It will take several years to dig our way out of this economic disaster.   

And that's why I'm saying, we are going to have a long bear market that could last for years.  The stock market has not yet wrapped its head around what has happened to the world wide economy.

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I am still struggling with the idea that revealing death numbers that were anticipated and frequently below projection is going to keep causing large scale changes. At the same time, employment numbers are going to stabilize and we shouldn't see millions of jobs lost again. The only real uncertainty left is a date that the restrictions will be lifted to allow businesses to reopen. Once we have that firmed up I don't anticipate any additional bad news that would offset with the positives you mentioned.

FSG, you've mentioned it previously, but what source are you referencing with regard to death toll projections? Not the Imperial College one that everyone was slamming as alarmist, I hope.

I've mostly been using the IHME from U of Washington found at https://covid19.healthdata.org/ and Worldometer for raw counts https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ plus the FDoH pdf that B2 posted elsewhere.

That's why I asked about other models, more forecasts bring better analysis.

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I am still struggling with the idea that revealing death numbers that were anticipated and frequently below projection is going to keep causing large scale changes. At the same time, employment numbers are going to stabilize and we shouldn't see millions of jobs lost again. The only real uncertainty left is a date that the restrictions will be lifted to allow businesses to reopen. Once we have that firmed up I don't anticipate any additional bad news that would offset with the positives you mentioned.

At this point, it's not the death numbers that worry me.  It's the number of jobs lost, many lost permanently as small businesses close their doors for good, plus the amount of additional debt, both public and private, in an already deeply indebted world.   We're looking at 4 to 7 trillion dollars added to the federal debt, and trillions of dollars in additional credit card debt, business debt, all kinds of borrowing and money printing to get ourselves out of this.  

We're going to see a lot of bankruptcies.  Hotels, restaurants, all sorts of small businesses who could not afford even a one week shutdown, much less a 2 or 3 month shutdown.  A lot of businesses exist right on the edge, and the only way they can get through this is to either borrow money or go out of business.  

This is a worldwide disaster, too.  Our customers and suppliers all over the world are going through the same thing.  

You can't just send everyone home for a 2 or 3 month vacation and print or borrow the money to pay for it and then bounce right back like nothing happened.  

It's what I have said from day one.  The disease has always worried me, but what has always worried me even more is our reaction to it.  I'm not saying we should or should not have shut down our economy like we have, but the effects of doing that are extremely damaging and will take a very long time to overcome.  

We won't be bouncing back by the end of the year.  It will take several years to dig our way out of this economic disaster.   

And that's why I'm saying, we are going to have a long bear market that could last for years.  The stock market has not yet wrapped its head around what has happened to the world wide economy.

I agree on most of that, but what's the real difference in a 25 or 28 trillion national debt and the 21 we had a month ago?

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

FSG, you've mentioned it previously, but what source are you referencing with regard to death toll projections? Not the Imperial College one that everyone was slamming as alarmist, I hope.

I've mostly been using the IHME from U of Washington found at https://covid19.healthdata.org/ and Worldometer for raw counts https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ plus the FDoH pdf that B2 posted elsewhere.

That's why I asked about other models, more forecasts bring better analysis.

The UWash resource is exceptionally insightful, but it looks like the reverse is true: we're seeing more total deaths and deaths per day than projected, at least using that model and cross referencing with worldometer's data aggregation. 

Are you seeing the opposite somewhere? Just curious as to why/how you're seeing us coming frequently under projections. If that were the case, I could see the market beginning to stabilize a bit more in line with recovery

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I'll play you in ping pong. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20...-estimate/

On the subject of forecasting:

"Leading disease forecasters, whose research the White House used to conclude 100,000 to 240,000 people will die nationwide from the coronavirus, were mystified when they saw the administration’s projection this week.

"The experts said they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity but that they don’t know how the White House arrived at them.

"White House officials have refused to explain how they generated the figure — a death toll bigger than the United States suffered in the Vietnam War or the 9/11 terrorist attacks. They have not provided the underlying data so others can assess its reliability or provided long-term strategies to lower that death count.

"At a task force meeting this week, according to two officials with direct knowledge of it, Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told others there are too many variables at play in the pandemic to make the models reliable: “I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models.”

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We're going to see a lot of bankruptcies.  Hotels, restaurants, all sorts of small businesses who could not afford even a one week shutdown, much less a 2 or 3 month shutdown.  A lot of businesses exist right on the edge, and the only way they can get through this is to either borrow money or go out of business.  

If one is contemplating opening up a restaurant business, 2021 may be a good time as a lot of existing owners will tank and not come back, freeing up commercial locations at a discounted lease rate.

A lot more food trucks may be popping up around the country as it presents less risk

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Okay, back to the stock market.

I am still thinking the stock market has not yet priced in the depth and duration of the oncoming recession.  I think it will be deep and long, and earnings will be severely reduced, and I think there's a better than even chance we are in for a bear market that lasts for several years.

I both agree and disagree with your opinion.  I agree that earnings are going to be ugly, however it's pretty much expected when the economy is forced to shut down.  Lower than expected earnings should not be a surprise.  What is going to hurt the most is many small businesses will probably not be able to recover from this.

I do hope and think that market will resist testing or breaching the lows.  We briefly exited "bear territory" (20% above the lows and specifically in the case of the DOW around 21855) and are flirting in that range.  The volatility is not there and we're not seeing any wild swings one way or the other.  Even after today's news regarding the jobs report the DOW is only down around 1.5%.  With that being said it certainly could change.

My guess is that once we do see a flattening of "the curve" regarding the virus and people are able to get back to work we will see the market turn around rather quickly.  My thought is that will probably happen sometime towards the end of May barring anything unforeseen happening.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

I do hope and think that market will resist testing or breaching the lows.  We briefly exited "bear territory" (20% above the lows and specifically in the case of the DOW around 21855) and are flirting in that range.  The volatility is not there and we're not seeing any wild swings one way or the other.  Even after today's news regarding the jobs report the DOW is only down around 1.5%.  With that being said it certainly could change.

My guess is that once we do see a flattening of "the curve" regarding the virus and people are able to get back to work we will see the market turn around rather quickly.  My thought is that will probably happen sometime towards the end of May barring anything unforeseen happening.

I may have posted this recently but cannot recall.  Anyway, one of the brokers on CNBC stated that there are a lot of investors sitting on the sidelines, waiting to jump back in the market.  They followed that statement by also noting that this was not the case in 2008 since most were not certain when the recession would end.

Can't wait for the day when we have a week of positive numbers.

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I've mostly been using the IHME from U of Washington found at https://covid19.healthdata.org/ and Worldometer for raw counts https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ plus the FDoH pdf that B2 posted elsewhere.

That's why I asked about other models, more forecasts bring better analysis.

The UWash resource is exceptionally insightful, but it looks like the reverse is true: we're seeing more total deaths and deaths per day than projected, at least using that model and cross referencing with worldometer's data aggregation. 

Are you seeing the opposite somewhere? Just curious as to why/how you're seeing us coming frequently under projections. If that were the case, I could see the market beginning to stabilize a bit more in line with recovery

The number this morning for Total Deaths on WOM was 6,070 so it must have been before they tallied in New Deaths. The IHME projection was from 5,809 yesterday to a little over 7,000 deaths today. Depending on when the numbers update I'm seeing some variation that a few additional models would help to reduce.

And we're still definitely on the upslope, but the models had very broad ranges of variation in every graphic I've seen. Some of them have a range of +/- 100,000 deaths.

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I do hope and think that market will resist testing or breaching the lows.  We briefly exited "bear territory" (20% above the lows and specifically in the case of the DOW around 21855) and are flirting in that range.  The volatility is not there and we're not seeing any wild swings one way or the other.  Even after today's news regarding the jobs report the DOW is only down around 1.5%.  With that being said it certainly could change.

My guess is that once we do see a flattening of "the curve" regarding the virus and people are able to get back to work we will see the market turn around rather quickly.  My thought is that will probably happen sometime towards the end of May barring anything unforeseen happening.

I may have posted this recently but cannot recall.  Anyway, one of the brokers on CNBC stated that there are a lot of investors sitting on the sidelines, waiting to jump back in the market.  They followed that statement by also noting that this was not the case in 2008 since most were not certain when the recession would end.

Can't wait for the day when we have a week of positive numbers.

Your lips to God's ears brother.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

I do hope and think that market will resist testing or breaching the lows.  We briefly exited "bear territory" (20% above the lows and specifically in the case of the DOW around 21855) and are flirting in that range.  The volatility is not there and we're not seeing any wild swings one way or the other.  Even after today's news regarding the jobs report the DOW is only down around 1.5%.  With that being said it certainly could change.

My guess is that once we do see a flattening of "the curve" regarding the virus and people are able to get back to work we will see the market turn around rather quickly.  My thought is that will probably happen sometime towards the end of May barring anything unforeseen happening.

I may have posted this recently but cannot recall.  Anyway, one of the brokers on CNBC stated that there are a lot of investors sitting on the sidelines, waiting to jump back in the market.  They followed that statement by also noting that this was not the case in 2008 since most were not certain when the recession would end.

Can't wait for the day when we have a week of positive numbers.

Hopefully that day will come soon.  I'm just glad to see more "normal" swings in the market.  Volume in the DOW is pretty close to average right now (actually trending a bit low).  It will be interesting to see how the market moves on Monday.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

Futures up nearly 800 points and VIX flirting with going under 40. 

Adjust accordingly.

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Futures up nearly 800 points and VIX flirting with going under 40. 

Adjust accordingly.

4pm (ET) can't come soon enough

Still going up .... 4pm can wait.

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Futures up nearly 800 points and VIX flirting with going under 40. 

Adjust accordingly.

Futures this morning did look good and the VIX also looked really good.  The rally today was a welcome sight, but the sharp up turn doesn't give me much confidence (yet).  I still would like to see some more stability (moves around 100-200 points on the DOW in a day).  A 1000 point plus move to me while welcome is not a comforting sign.  I still feel confident that we won't test the lows and perhaps we will stay out of "bear market" territory (DOW around 21855).

A gradual move up would be nice to see this week.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

Futures up nearly 800 points and VIX flirting with going under 40. 

Adjust accordingly.

Futures this morning did look good and the VIX also looked really good.  The rally today was a welcome sight, but the sharp up turn doesn't give me much confidence (yet).  I still would like to see some more stability (moves around 100-200 points on the DOW in a day).  A 1000 point plus move to me while welcome is not a comforting sign.  I still feel confident that we won't test the lows and perhaps we will stay out of "bear market" territory (DOW around 21855).

A gradual move up would be nice to see this week.

I want a sharp V to allow for a cushion in case there are any setbacks.

I was pretty stoked yesterday about the back to back upswings but the 500+ point gain was all wiped out in the final 2 hours of trading.  We're back to the same place today (500+) but I'll hold off on any celebration until 4:00pm (ET).

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Man, I wish Bernie could drop out of the race every day for the next 3 weeks.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

Man, I wish Bernie could drop out of the race every day for the next 3 weeks.

Bernie looked at his investments and wished he could too, while also cursing "rich corporate awligawrks".

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Man, I wish Bernie could drop out of the race every day for the next 3 weeks.

Bernie looked at his investments and wished he could too, while also cursing "rich corporate awligawrks".

I'm sure the DNC sent him a nice house as a parting gift again this time.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato