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Stock Market Under Trump
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(04-03-2020, 11:45 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote:(04-03-2020, 11:18 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: This is my fear. If I were a betting man, today I'd lean on the fact that our "stay home' mandate will extend through May which is not planned into the market selloff. My real hope is we get some continued positives related to vaccine, stimulus', and oil. At this point, it's not the death numbers that worry me. It's the number of jobs lost, many lost permanently as small businesses close their doors for good, plus the amount of additional debt, both public and private, in an already deeply indebted world. We're looking at 4 to 7 trillion dollars added to the federal debt, and trillions of dollars in additional credit card debt, business debt, all kinds of borrowing and money printing to get ourselves out of this. We're going to see a lot of bankruptcies. Hotels, restaurants, all sorts of small businesses who could not afford even a one week shutdown, much less a 2 or 3 month shutdown. A lot of businesses exist right on the edge, and the only way they can get through this is to either borrow money or go out of business. This is a worldwide disaster, too. Our customers and suppliers all over the world are going through the same thing. You can't just send everyone home for a 2 or 3 month vacation and print or borrow the money to pay for it and then bounce right back like nothing happened. And even if we lift the restrictions, a large percentage of the populace will decide to stay home anyway, because they don't want to catch this stuff. A lot of people will decide they aren't going to a restaurant or a sporting event or any crowded place until Covid-19 is gone. Really gone. Not just pretend-gone, like lifting the restrictions would imply. It's what I have said from day one. The disease has always worried me, but what has always worried me even more is our reaction to it. I'm not saying we should or should not have shut down our economy like we have, but the effects of doing that are extremely damaging and will take a very long time to overcome. We won't be bouncing back by the end of the year. It will take several years to dig our way out of this economic disaster. And that's why I'm saying, we are going to have a long bear market that could last for years. The stock market has not yet wrapped its head around what has happened to the world wide economy. |
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