(04-03-2020, 11:51 AM)Gabe Wrote:

(04-03-2020, 11:45 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: I am still struggling with the idea that revealing death numbers that were anticipated and frequently below projection is going to keep causing large scale changes. At the same time, employment numbers are going to stabilize and we shouldn't see millions of jobs lost again. The only real uncertainty left is a date that the restrictions will be lifted to allow businesses to reopen. Once we have that firmed up I don't anticipate any additional bad news that would offset with the positives you mentioned.

FSG, you've mentioned it previously, but what source are you referencing with regard to death toll projections? Not the Imperial College one that everyone was slamming as alarmist, I hope.

I've mostly been using the IHME from U of Washington found at https://covid19.healthdata.org/ and Worldometer for raw counts https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ plus the FDoH pdf that B2 posted elsewhere.

That's why I asked about other models, more forecasts bring better analysis.

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(04-03-2020, 11:59 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:

(04-03-2020, 11:45 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: I am still struggling with the idea that revealing death numbers that were anticipated and frequently below projection is going to keep causing large scale changes. At the same time, employment numbers are going to stabilize and we shouldn't see millions of jobs lost again. The only real uncertainty left is a date that the restrictions will be lifted to allow businesses to reopen. Once we have that firmed up I don't anticipate any additional bad news that would offset with the positives you mentioned.

At this point, it's not the death numbers that worry me.  It's the number of jobs lost, many lost permanently as small businesses close their doors for good, plus the amount of additional debt, both public and private, in an already deeply indebted world.   We're looking at 4 to 7 trillion dollars added to the federal debt, and trillions of dollars in additional credit card debt, business debt, all kinds of borrowing and money printing to get ourselves out of this.  

We're going to see a lot of bankruptcies.  Hotels, restaurants, all sorts of small businesses who could not afford even a one week shutdown, much less a 2 or 3 month shutdown.  A lot of businesses exist right on the edge, and the only way they can get through this is to either borrow money or go out of business.  

This is a worldwide disaster, too.  Our customers and suppliers all over the world are going through the same thing.  

You can't just send everyone home for a 2 or 3 month vacation and print or borrow the money to pay for it and then bounce right back like nothing happened.  

It's what I have said from day one.  The disease has always worried me, but what has always worried me even more is our reaction to it.  I'm not saying we should or should not have shut down our economy like we have, but the effects of doing that are extremely damaging and will take a very long time to overcome.  

We won't be bouncing back by the end of the year.  It will take several years to dig our way out of this economic disaster.   

And that's why I'm saying, we are going to have a long bear market that could last for years.  The stock market has not yet wrapped its head around what has happened to the world wide economy.

I agree on most of that, but what's the real difference in a 25 or 28 trillion national debt and the 21 we had a month ago?

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