(04-03-2020, 12:05 PM)Gabe Wrote:

(04-03-2020, 11:59 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: I've mostly been using the IHME from U of Washington found at https://covid19.healthdata.org/ and Worldometer for raw counts https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ plus the FDoH pdf that B2 posted elsewhere.

That's why I asked about other models, more forecasts bring better analysis.

The UWash resource is exceptionally insightful, but it looks like the reverse is true: we're seeing more total deaths and deaths per day than projected, at least using that model and cross referencing with worldometer's data aggregation. 

Are you seeing the opposite somewhere? Just curious as to why/how you're seeing us coming frequently under projections. If that were the case, I could see the market beginning to stabilize a bit more in line with recovery

The number this morning for Total Deaths on WOM was 6,070 so it must have been before they tallied in New Deaths. The IHME projection was from 5,809 yesterday to a little over 7,000 deaths today. Depending on when the numbers update I'm seeing some variation that a few additional models would help to reduce.

And we're still definitely on the upslope, but the models had very broad ranges of variation in every graphic I've seen. Some of them have a range of +/- 100,000 deaths.

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(04-03-2020, 12:19 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:

(04-03-2020, 12:09 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: I do hope and think that market will resist testing or breaching the lows.  We briefly exited "bear territory" (20% above the lows and specifically in the case of the DOW around 21855) and are flirting in that range.  The volatility is not there and we're not seeing any wild swings one way or the other.  Even after today's news regarding the jobs report the DOW is only down around 1.5%.  With that being said it certainly could change.

My guess is that once we do see a flattening of "the curve" regarding the virus and people are able to get back to work we will see the market turn around rather quickly.  My thought is that will probably happen sometime towards the end of May barring anything unforeseen happening.

I may have posted this recently but cannot recall.  Anyway, one of the brokers on CNBC stated that there are a lot of investors sitting on the sidelines, waiting to jump back in the market.  They followed that statement by also noting that this was not the case in 2008 since most were not certain when the recession would end.

Can't wait for the day when we have a week of positive numbers.

Your lips to God's ears brother.

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