(04-08-2020, 04:25 PM)jagibelieve Wrote:

(04-08-2020, 02:36 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: I am sticking to my belief that the market has not priced in the long term damage that has been done to the economy by shutting it down and printing the money to pay for so many people sitting at home.  

There is a large swath of people who think the key to market recovery is flattening the curve, and while that is important, there has been long term damage done and the longer we sit at home the worse that long term damage will be.  

There's no free lunch.  You can't just tell everyone to go on vacation and print the money to pay for it without consequences.

I somewhat agree with you, though I do believe that investors are anticipating bad earnings numbers, bad unemployment numbers, etc.  While I like seeing the market put up numbers like it has so far this week and while I wish for more of a "V shaped" recovery I do think that it's going to be more of a "U shape".

Having said that I don't think that the market overall will test the lows, and the gains over the last few days might be short lived.

For the most part I personally have been sitting on the sidelines with the exception of small portions in a couple of stocks and ETF's that I like.  So far they are doing well, but it's a very small portion of my portfolio.  I'm still basically 90% cash and 10% in equities so even the small gains that I am making right now doesn't really reflect on my YTD returns number.

It's just my opinion but I think if someone is looking at the long term many stocks, funds, ETF's, etc. are still basically "on sale" right now.  Imagine what the price is going to be a year from now vs. right now.

Investing is emotional as much as it is numbers.  You have to do what's comfortable for you.  The unknown can bring anxiety, as we've seen during this shut in.  If anxiety of a downturn causes you to sell (and always, ALWAYS remember that you don't lose or gain a single penny until you hit the SELL button) then you're better off waiting for smoother sailing.

As I stated earlier in the thread, there are funds that can make you money even in down times.  Timing markets rarely works.  No one knows for certain: in too soon and you may have to ride out the bottom if we're not there yet.  In to late after the upturn and you've lost a portion of the gains.

Even so, if you're investing over the long haul now isn't a bad time to up your contribution to investments in historically strong EFTs.  If you are in good funds you will have plenty of time for the market to return unless you're close to retirement age now.

Since it's been dissolved due to market volatility and replaced with a new fund, I can share what was my "bell cow": GASX.  I share this to show I'm not talking out of my behind like so many here do about politics.  My words are true, though I don't want anyone to take this as investment advice.  It's just sharing my story.

The combination of the China virus and Russia getting into an oil production war caused this ETF to spike.  I was fortunate enough to have my "play" money in it as it's a fund that was taking frequent 10-20% swings (like the ebb and tide of the sea) where I would get in, grab 5-20%, and get out.  This time, I rode it because I was hearing on social media from contacts about how the oil industry was shedding jobs and no one was talking about it.  This, is how I fared during the economic downturn with that "play" money:








I sold well before where it peaked (I think around 500.00?) so even though I made a killing, I still left some gains on the table.  You have to have nerves of steel and ice in your veins for this type of trading.

I recently converted about 25% of a handful of positive or near positive funds to cash.  I plan on looking for another bell cow EFT where I can grab a fast 10-20% to help climb out of this faster as we emerge from this.

If someone is looking for something relatively "safe," an EFT I really like is FTEC.  Technology stocks are flexing their muscle as they have weathered this well and are positioned for a strong future as businesses seek new ways of doing business.  Buffett bought a 2-3% stake in Kroger prior to the China virus.  They have accelerated innovation of their supply chain and pickup infrastructure.  I do not recommend investing in single stocks, I was just sharing that as another positive story while much of the market has taken a beating.

Again, always remember that you don't lose or gain a single penny until you press the sale button.  Buy low, sell high.  Try to hold until your underperformers come around.

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