Here's the thing...he missed the entire season...nobody's fault but he did.
If he's here next year, it should be because he wants to be....not because he was forced.

FWIW...I don't really want him under those circumstances....especially if he doesn't want to be.
We'll be just fine.

You can see in those videos of him working out that he wants to be here. He's also a player, and out of respect to other players he should try to get every penny he can. 

Btw, the tag route gets really expensive. I recall back when he tagged Darius in back-to-back years how tempting that can be, but with the new CBA the additional tagged years go up quite a bit. You can tag a player up to three consecutive years, so I did the math using estimated 2018 numbers to see how much it would cost to tag ARob every year through 2020...

• 2018 - $16.05 mil
  
• 2019 - $19.25 mil
  
• 2020 - $27.7 mil
  
• TOTAL - $63 mil
  

It's basically a 3-year deal averaging $21 mil per.


I'd like to see the Jaguars and ARob come together quickly once they actually do start talking. We really do need him.

Some here are suggesting the transition tag which is a little lower, however teams often know just how to work a contract so the former team can't really match. The tag works like maybe half the time, and it's not that much lower. The transition tag for 2018 is projected to be nearly $14 mil, so you're only saving $2 mil.

---

'02

A month ago I posted that ARob probably signs for $12 to $12.5 mil per, but I'm starting to think he might want to test the market at that number.

I'm now thinking we offer him a take-it-or-leave-it deal...

• 4-years for $55 mil
  

That's a nice $13.75 mil per year which is actually really close to the projected transition tag number which is fair market value for a starting split-end. The transition tag takes the top 10 players at the position and takes the average of their average salary for the past five years.

Another way I looked at it was to say the Jaguars are thinking 4-years for $50 mil, which is $12.5 mil per year like I had been saying... Meanwhile A-Rob may be thinking 4-years for $60 mil which puts him at a nice round $15 mil per year... so you split the difference and you end up with 4-years for $55 mil.
 

---

'02

A month ago I posted that ARob probably signs for $12 to $12.5 mil per, but I'm starting to think he might want to test the market at that number.

I'm now thinking we offer him a take-it-or-leave-it deal...

• 4-years for $55 mil
  

That's a nice $13.75 mil per year which is actually really close to the projected transition tag number which is fair market value for a starting split-end. The transition tag takes the top 10 players at the position and takes the average of their average salary for the past five years.

Another way I looked at it was to say the Jaguars are thinking 4-years for $50 mil, which is $12.5 mil per year like I had been saying... Meanwhile A-Rob may be thinking 4-years for $60 mil which puts him at a nice round $15 mil per year... so you split the difference and you end up with 4-years for $55 mil.
 

Also have to take into consideration that Fl. has no state tax.

---

A month ago I posted that ARob probably signs for $12 to $12.5 mil per, but I'm starting to think he might want to test the market at that number.

I'm now thinking we offer him a take-it-or-leave-it deal...

• 4-years for $55 mil
  

That's a nice $13.75 mil per year which is actually really close to the projected transition tag number which is fair market value for a starting split-end. The transition tag takes the top 10 players at the position and takes the average of their average salary for the past five years.

Another way I looked at it was to say the Jaguars are thinking 4-years for $50 mil, which is $12.5 mil per year like I had been saying... Meanwhile A-Rob may be thinking 4-years for $60 mil which puts him at a nice round $15 mil per year... so you split the difference and you end up with 4-years for $55 mil.
 

I think he atleast gets what Devante Adams got, 4 yr 58 mil.  A Rob is better than Adams imo.  I say he gets a 4 year 58.5 mil 32 mil guaranteed

---

AJ Green got a 4 year 60 mil 3 years ago. I dont think A rob is on Greens level but he is close and the number goes up every year so a 4 year 60 mil wouldnt shock me. I think at minimum it will be 4 year 55 mil and at max 4 year 60.

---

I dont think the injury will really come in to affect seeing how players come back after the ACL now days. Keenan Allens's year will really help A Rob in the contract talks

---

Arob should get around 35 million guaranteed.

---

AJ Green got a 4 year 60 mil 3 years ago.  I dont think A rob is on Greens level but he is close and the number goes up every year so a 4 year 60 mil wouldnt shock me.  I think at minimum it will be 4 year 55 mil and at max 4 year 60.

---

I dont think the injury will really come in to affect seeing how players come back after the ACL now days.  Keenan Allens's year will really help A Rob in the contract talks

Although that was 3 years ago.

After these last couple posts I'm starting to think we might have to offer 4-years at $60 mil. 

---

'02

I could see a 4 year 60 mil 35 mil guaranteed. That would be my ceiling though

---

Hey guys, new to the site. Enjoying what I am reading so far. A lot more civil than that other place.

ARob has me a little worried. I am not as worried about coming back from the injury in and of itself. However, AROB was not good in 2016, at least by 2015 standards. He had several drops and wasn't nearly as productive. Of course part of that was Blake, but not all of it. ARob had two drops right into interceptions - one was in the end zone. So, when you take into account that the last season he actually played was not good AND he is coming off an injury like an ACL, it gives me pause to sign him long-term. I have been of the opinion that we tag him and see what he has. If he performs like we think he can, you reward him with a big fat long-term deal. If he doesn't, hey, he was paid like one of the top 5 wide receivers in the league and both sides can move on.

---

Hey guys, new to the site. Enjoying what I am reading so far. A lot more civil than that other place.

ARob has me a little worried. I am not as worried about coming back from the injury in and of itself. However, AROB was not good in 2016, at least by 2015 standards. He had several drops and wasn't nearly as productive. Of course part of that was Blake, but not all of it. ARob had two drops right into interceptions - one was in the end zone. So, when you take into account that the last season he actually played was not good AND he is coming off an injury like an ACL, it gives me pause to sign him long-term. I have been of the opinion that we tag him and see what he has. If he performs like we think he can, you reward him with a big fat long-term deal. If he doesn't, hey, he was paid like one of the top 5 wide receivers in the league and both sides can move on.

I get it. Panic mode here. The Jags don't have a proven #1, and it seems like ARob is the missing puzzle piece. The problem with this sentiment is we don't know what ARob we're getting moving forward. Positive training reports and videos are agent puffery, but one thing we know is that his ACL tear will not contribute to him jumping higher or running faster than he did before. He wants to be paid like a top-5 receiver, but he was not a top-5 receiver before. He arguably was top-5 in terms of potential, but all that's out the door with his injury in addition to his lackluster 2016 when he started getting doubled. 

I'd draw a line in the sand. If he doesn't sign a reasonable deal, then tag him and play him 100% of snaps in 2018-2019 like a rented mule. Also, draft a receiver in round 1 or 2 so his replacement can emerge from the trio of Westbrook, Cole, and drafted guy. If ARob/his agent aren't being realistic with his value, treat him like a hired mercenary and let another team gamble on him next year.

---

"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

I hope ARob doesn't want to be the highest paid WR in the division. I just noticed that DeAndre Hopkins is entering year two of a 5-year, $81 mil contract that averages $16.2 mil per.

We just might be looking at 4 years, $65 mil for ARob.

Compare that to Telvin Smith who signed a 4-year, $45 mil contract.

---

'02

Would make me sick to see A Rob in clots jersey

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2018/02/2...ee-agency/

---

Would make me sick to see A Rob in clots jersey

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2018/02/2...ee-agency/

I don't think we'd want to witness Andrew Luck throwing to both TY Hilton and Allen Robinson.

---

'02

Would make me sick to see A Rob in clots jersey

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2018/02/2...ee-agency/

I don't think we'd want to witness Andrew Luck throwing to both TY Hilton and Allen Robinson.

I don't think we are going to, unless its on the all-IR squad.

---

Yes, it's improvement, but it's Blaine Gabbert 2012 level improvement. - Pirkster

http://youtu.be/ouGM3NWpjxk The Home Hypnotist!

http://youtu.be/XQRFkn0Ly3A Media on the Brain Link!
 

Peyton must store oxygen in that forehead of his. No way I'd still be alive after all that choking.

 

So, here something to think about. The best two WR in the FA class this year will probably be Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins.

Who is will get a bigger and/or a longer deal? Who is a better player when healthy? Who would you rather have on the Jags?

---

So, here something to think about. The best two WR in the FA class this year will probably be Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins.

Who is will get a bigger and/or a longer deal? Who is a better player when healthy? Who would you rather have on the Jags?

Both will be vastly overpaid based on potential. I’d choose Robinson only because Blake needs a jump ball specialist to overcompensate for his inaccuracy. Otherwise Watkins would represent a decent savings without too much drop off.

---

"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

Let Robinson find his fortune somewhere else. He's coming off ACL reconstruction. There is no knowledge he will be the same player he once was.

The dumbest thing is can somebody show me where Robinson consistently makes yards after the catch. He just jumps up and falls down.

His size is naturally eliminated as any kind of physical advantage. He hardly ever catches the ball in stride and never has a foot or two of separation from a defender. What kind of an offense is that?

As it is, he stands to make much more money than we should risk.

Aaron Kampman.

Let that sink in for a while.

---

Let Robinson find his fortune somewhere else. He's coming off ACL reconstruction. There is no knowledge he will be the same player he once was.

The dumbest thing is can somebody show me where Robinson consistently makes yards after the catch. He just jumps up and falls down.

His size is naturally eliminated as any kind of physical advantage. He hardly ever catches the ball in stride and never has a foot or two of separation from a defender. What kind of an offense is that?

As it is, he stands to make much more money than we should risk.

Aaron Kampman.

Let that sink in for a while.

Most players are better these days after coming off an ACL injury.  Keenan Allen most recent example.  I A Rob was in his 30s one might wonder.  Their repaired leg is stronger after the surgery

---

Yes, a 31 year-old DE is a perfect comparison to Robinson.

Let that sink in.

---

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/hot...on-surgery

---

Add Keenan Allen, and others

---

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/hot...on-surgery

Add Fowler and others

---