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Roster Prediction Time

#61

(08-14-2018, 11:14 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(08-14-2018, 10:04 PM)Jags02 Wrote: It's not everyone... just Rico and O-Line.

Fine, $9.6 million. I'm not good at math. Whatever it was, it was too much.


It was just pointed out to me that his entire contract is guaranteed and not just his $4 mil signing bonus. With that in mind, you can forget about even the slightest possibility he might be cut. He's either on the roster, on IR or traded to another team, but he clearly cannot be cut. If for any reason he goes on IR, I'd expect a designation to return so there's at least a chance for him to earn some of the money late in the season.
'02
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#62

(08-14-2018, 08:27 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(08-14-2018, 09:11 AM)Rico Wrote: So pissing away 12 mil is a good idea?  And, who, prey tell would be this receiver that's going to get cut that has a long term future ahead of him?

We pissed away $12 million when we signed Moncrief. One year or not, it was too much money for a guy with a history of injuries and drops. Kendall Wright signed a 1 yr. $1 million deal with Minnesota and I see him and Moncrief finishing the year with similar production. There were cheaper options. 

I don't know. Well have to see who gets cut.

The Jags were looking for a young player with freakish size and speed to potentially add another dimension to the offense.

Kendall Wright would have been a great fit if we were looking to add a small and slow WR with no upside to our offense.
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#63

Moncrief is the most physically gifted reciever on our roster,and he just turned 25 last week. There's a much better chance of him having a future on our roster rather than people like Shane Wynn, Rashad green, or jaydon mickens.
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#64

(08-10-2018, 01:21 AM)Jags02 Wrote: There are still a few more games that could change things, but with the first game in the books, I'm ready to predict the 53-man roster...

OFFENSE: 25
QB: Blake Bortles, Cody Kessler
RB: Leonard Fournette, Corey Grant (KR), TJ Yeldon
FB: Tommy Bohanon
WR1: Keelan Cole, Dante Moncrief
WR2: Marqise Lee, DJ Chark
WR3: Dante Westbrook, Shane Wynn (PR)
TE1: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Niles Paul
TE2: Ben Koyack, DeAndre Goolsby
LT: Cam Robinson, Josh Wells
LG: Andrew Norwell
OC: Brandon Linder, Tyler Shatley
RG: AJ Cann, Josh Walker
RT: Jermey Parnell, Will Richardson

DEFENSE (25)
RDE: Yannick Ngakoue, Dante Fowler, Larentee McCray
DT: Malik Jackson, Michael Bennett
NT: Marcell Dareus, Abry Jones
LDE: Calais Campbell, Taven Bryan, Dawuane Smoot
WLB: Telvin Smith, Blair Brown
MLB: Myles Jack, Andrew Matuapuaka
SLB: Leon Jacobs
CB1: Jalen Ramsey, Tre Hurndon
CB2: AJ Bouye, Tyler Patmon
CB3: DJ Hayden
FS: Tashaun Gipson, Jarrod Wilson, Cody Davis
SS: Barry Church, Ronnie Harrison

SPECIAL TEAMS: 3
K: Josh Lambo
P/H: Logan Cooke
LS: Carson Tinker

PRACTICE SQUAD: 10
  • Scott Orndoff
  • Allen Lazard
  • Tim Cook
  • William Poehls
  • Tony Adams
  • Quenton Meeks
  • Hunter Dimick
  • Manase Hungalu
  • Deon King
  • Eli Ankou
TOUGH CUTS: Donald Payne, Brooks Ellis, Jalen Myrick, Don Carey III, CJ Reavis, Lyndon Johnson, Carroll Phillips, Sealver Siliga, Brandon Wilds, Chris Reed, James O'Shaughnessy, Jaydon Mickens, Rashad Greene, Brandon Smith

EASY CUTS: Tanner Lee, DeAndre Smelter, Dorren Miller, Montay Crockett, Michael Dunn,  KC McDermott, David Grinnage, Reggie Hunter, Charlie Miller, Sammy Seamster, Dexter McDougle, Dee Delaney


A few changes after watching the Vikings game...
  • James O'Shaughnessy makes it at TE over DeAndre Goolsby.
  • I considered if Niles Paul should be cut, but his contract is fully guaranteed with him counting $2.22 mil if kept, and $2.47 mil if cut. They'll look to keep him, and I suspect he'll figure things out soon enough. He's a talented vet and may have simply not had enough reps. He did ok if you ignore his two penalties, and on his drop, that would have been sensational had he caught it. He had his hands on the ball, but the DB had a hand right up in between the TE's hands. That was no easy catch.
  • As mentioned above, I'm now thinking Brooks Ellis makes at the backup SLB over Matuapuaka at MLB who instead makes the PS over Hungalu. I don't recall either player from this game, but it makes more sense from a depth perspective since Brown can also backup MLB.
  •  On the OL it looks like Chris Reed will make it over Josh Walker as the backup G, but the backup OT spots are trickier. Will Richardson isn't seeing any early action as of yet, but I have to think the draft pick sticks. But what about William Poehls who started at RT? I'm almost wondering if Poehls might replace Josh Wells who we kept seen getting burnt for sacks. All I know is, Cam Robinson can't get hurt.
  • Shane Wynn's hold on that last WR spot looks even shakier with Greene showing up vs the Vikings and with Dede now looking like their best return guy. I might have to put Greene in their over Wynn, but it's too close to call.
  • On defense, I'm trying to think if we can add a DB. It might mean replacing Michael Bennett, but I'd like to get Meeks and/or Myrick on the roster. 
  • On the PS, replace Cook with Wilds.

'02
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#65

What's up with Smoot? At this point could see him being IR'd.
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#66
(This post was last modified: 08-19-2018, 01:43 AM by JUNGLE CAT 2017.)

MOCK 53-Man Roster 

A few changes. I am locking some players. (TEAL/BOLD) This means not much can happen to change their roster status. The list is NOT organized for depth.

OFFENSE (26):

QB (2) Blake Bortles, Cody Kessler
RB (3) Leonard Fournette, T.J. Yeldon, Corey Grant
FB (1) Tommy Bohanon 
WR (6) Marqise Lee, D.J. Chark, Donte Moncrief, Shane Wynn, Rashad Greene, Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole
TE (4) Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Scott Orndoff, Ben Koyack, James O'Shaughnessy
OT (4) Cam Robinson, Jeremy Parnell, Will Richardson, William Poehls
OG (4) Andrew Norwell, A. J. Cann, Chris Reed, Josh Wells
C (2) Brandon Linder, Tyler Shatley

DEFENSE (24):

DE (4) Calais Campbell, Yannick Nagkoue, Hunter Dimick, Dawuane Smoot, Lerentee McCray
DT (6) Malik Jackson, Marcell Dareus, Abry Jones, Taven Bryan, Sealver Siliga, Eli Ankou
LB (5) Telvin Smith, Myles Jack, Leon Jacobs, Blair Brown, Brooks Ellis
CB (5) Jalen Ramsey, A. J. Boyue, Tyler Patmon, Quenton Meeks, Jalen Myrick, Tre Herndon 
S (4) Barry Church, Tashaun Gibson, Cody Davis, Ronnie Harrison

SPECIALISTS (3):

K Josh Lambo
P Logan Cooke
LS Carson Tinker
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#67
(This post was last modified: 08-19-2018, 02:02 AM by brianmsbc.)

Greene is a lock but Moncrief is not? Siliga, Orndoff, Meeks are also surprising locks. Kessler and Cody Davis are surprising no-locks.
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#68

(08-15-2018, 06:32 PM)Predator Wrote:
(08-14-2018, 08:27 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: We pissed away $12 million when we signed Moncrief. One year or not, it was too much money for a guy with a history of injuries and drops. Kendall Wright signed a 1 yr. $1 million deal with Minnesota and I see him and Moncrief finishing the year with similar production. There were cheaper options. 

I don't know. Well have to see who gets cut.

The Jags were looking for a young player with freakish size and speed to potentially add another dimension to the offense.

Kendall Wright would have been a great fit if we were looking to add a small and slow WR with no upside to our offense.

Body type means nothing if the player doesn't produce on the field. As a comparison, look at the careers of both players. Wright averages 47 yards receiving a game in his career. Moncrief averages 35.4. Wright averages 11.4 yards per reception in his career and Moncrief averages 12.3. Finally, they both have the exact same amount of 40+ yard gains in their careers with 5 each. Is there really a difference? For a player with such size and speed, Moncrief has not separated himself from the supposedly, "small, slow" Wright. You can have all the size and speed in the world, but if you are injury prone, can't run crisp routes or cannot get off the press to get separation consistently, you're just a guy. Is size and speed that much of a factor to give Moncrief $9.6 million when you could have had a player who would give equal production for $1 million?
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#69
(This post was last modified: 08-21-2018, 11:08 PM by TheO-LineMatters.)

I made a couple of changes on my prediction. I believe we will only keep 3 TE's instead of 4 and with that said, I believe Ben Koyack will be the odd man out. He's a decent blocker, but offers little else. I still believe Wells will be the backup LT, but he looks awful and we may be looking to replace him with someone cut from another team. There will be some veterans, who have to be an upgrade over what Wells has shown so far. Despite him playing "wildly and out of control" at times, Donald Payne looks to have a hold on the final LB position. I think we will be sending Andrew Motuapuaka to the PS. By keeping only 3 TE's, that opens another roster spot and I believe it should go to Quenton Meeks. He has flashed and I'd like to keep him around for depth and to see what he can develop into. I still believe Carey makes it over Herndon for his special teams play. Orndorff and Wilds should be the favorites to make the PS. I believe we will add a young QB to the PS off another roster and another OT as well. From there, the rest of the spots are up for grabs. Some young QB's I'd be looking at for the PS would be Kevin Hogan of WASH, Tim Boyle of GB, Jake Rudock of DET, Mike White of Dallas and Josh Woodrum of BALT. All would be better options than Tanner Lee.

OFFENSE (26):

QB (2) Blake Bortles, Cody Kessler
RB (3) Leonard Fournette, T.J. Yeldon, Corey Grant
FB (1) Tommy Bohanon
WR (6) Marqise Lee, D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole, Shane Wynn, Jaydon Mickens
TE (4) Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Niles Paul, James O'Shaughnessy
OT (4) Cam Robinson, Jeremy Parnell, Will Richardson, Josh Wells
OG (4) Andrew Norwell, A. J. Cann, Chris Reed
C (2) Brandon Linder, Tyler Shatley, Tony Adams (OG/C)

DEFENSE (24):

DE (4) Calais Campbell, Yannick Nagkoue, Dante Fowler Jr., Dawuane Smoot
DT (5) Malik Jackson, Marcell Dareus, Abry Jones, Taven Bryan, Michael Bennett
LB (5) Telvin Smith, Myles Jack, Leon Jacobs, Blair Brown, Donald Payne, Lerentee McCray
CB (5) Jalen Ramsey, A. J. Boyue, Tyler Patmon, D.J. Hayden, Quenton Meeks, Tre Herndon 
S (4) Barry Church, Tashaun Gibson, Jarrod Wilson, Ronnie Harrison

SPECIALISTS (3):

K Josh Lambo
P Logan Cooke
LS Carson Tinker



Practice Squad

Allen Lazard WR
Scott Orndorff TE
Brandon Wilds RB
Andrew Motuapuaka LB
Carroll Phillips, DE
QB off another team
OT off another team
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#70

(08-19-2018, 04:10 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(08-15-2018, 06:32 PM)Predator Wrote: The Jags were looking for a young player with freakish size and speed to potentially add another dimension to the offense.

Kendall Wright would have been a great fit if we were looking to add a small and slow WR with no upside to our offense.

Body type means nothing if the player doesn't produce on the field. As a comparison, look at the careers of both players. Wright averages 47 yards receiving a game in his career. Moncrief averages 35.4. Wright averages 11.4 yards per reception in his career and Moncrief averages 12.3. Finally, they both have the exact same amount of 40+ yard gains in their careers with 5 each. Is there really a difference? For a player with such size and speed, Moncrief has not separated himself from the supposedly, "small, slow" Wright. You can have all the size and speed in the world, but if you are injury prone, can't run crisp routes or cannot get off the press to get separation consistently, you're just a guy. Is size and speed that much of a factor to give Moncrief $9.6 million when you could have had a player who would give equal production for $1 million?

Body type, speed, and youth mean everything in this sport. Freak athletes like Moncrief can open up the passing game without the ball even being thrown to them. Moncrief is also a much greater redzone threat. He has 1 less career TDs than Wright while playing almost 30 fewer games. That is a significant advantage especially when the team is trying to replace the TD production of a guy like Robinson

If the jags were looking for journeyman production with their signing, they would have saved money and gone with someone like Wright. What you fail to understand is that the Jags were looking for someone who has the potential to be much more than a journeyman and Moncrief has boatloads more potential to be that than Wright.
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#71

OLine.

Are these predictions what you want to happen or what you think will happen? Because if you continue to cut Moncrief because you think it will actually happen, then please find some evidence of a team giving someone 10 million and then cutting them. I’m generally curious.

Moncrief has actually looked good and Wynn is nothing special. Moncrief will make the opening day roster and I’ll bet you anything you want. He may not be a top 3 WR on this team but he’s going to make it so you might as well get over it.
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#72
(This post was last modified: 08-19-2018, 08:09 AM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(08-19-2018, 06:31 AM)Predator Wrote:
(08-19-2018, 04:10 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: Body type means nothing if the player doesn't produce on the field. As a comparison, look at the careers of both players. Wright averages 47 yards receiving a game in his career. Moncrief averages 35.4. Wright averages 11.4 yards per reception in his career and Moncrief averages 12.3. Finally, they both have the exact same amount of 40+ yard gains in their careers with 5 each. Is there really a difference? For a player with such size and speed, Moncrief has not separated himself from the supposedly, "small, slow" Wright. You can have all the size and speed in the world, but if you are injury prone, can't run crisp routes or cannot get off the press to get separation consistently, you're just a guy. Is size and speed that much of a factor to give Moncrief $9.6 million when you could have had a player who would give equal production for $1 million?

Body type, speed, and youth mean everything in this sport. Freak athletes like Moncrief can open up the passing game without the ball even being thrown to them. Moncrief is also a much greater redzone threat. He has 1 less career TDs than Wright while playing almost 30 fewer games. That is a significant advantage especially when the team is trying to replace the TD production of a guy like Robinson

If the jags were looking for journeyman production with their signing, they would have saved money and gone with someone like Wright. What you fail to understand is that the Jags were looking for someone who has the potential to be much more than a journeyman and Moncrief has boatloads more potential to be that than Wright.

That's where you are wrong. Moncrief is what he is. He's peaked. He's not a star and he never will be. He's just an average player.

(08-19-2018, 07:21 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: OLine.

Are these predictions what you want to happen or what you think will happen? Because if you continue to cut Moncrief because you think it will actually happen, then please find some evidence of a team giving someone 10 million and then cutting them. I’m generally curious.

Moncrief has actually looked good and Wynn is nothing special. Moncrief will make the opening day roster and I’ll bet you anything you want. He may not be a top 3 WR on this team but he’s going to make it so you might as well get over it.

I'm judging simply by on the field play.
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#73

(08-19-2018, 08:07 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(08-19-2018, 06:31 AM)Predator Wrote: Body type, speed, and youth mean everything in this sport. Freak athletes like Moncrief can open up the passing game without the ball even being thrown to them. Moncrief is also a much greater redzone threat. He has 1 less career TDs than Wright while playing almost 30 fewer games. That is a significant advantage especially when the team is trying to replace the TD production of a guy like Robinson

If the jags were looking for journeyman production with their signing, they would have saved money and gone with someone like Wright. What you fail to understand is that the Jags were looking for someone who has the potential to be much more than a journeyman and Moncrief has boatloads more potential to be that than Wright.

That's where you are wrong. Moncrief is what he is. He's peaked. He's not a star and he never will be. He's just an average player.

(08-19-2018, 07:21 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: OLine.

Are these predictions what you want to happen or what you think will happen? Because if you continue to cut Moncrief because you think it will actually happen, then please find some evidence of a team giving someone 10 million and then cutting them. I’m generally curious.

Moncrief has actually looked good and Wynn is nothing special. Moncrief will make the opening day roster and I’ll bet you anything you want. He may not be a top 3 WR on this team but he’s going to make it so you might as well get over it.

I'm judging simply by on the field play.

So do you think Moncrief will make the team? lol
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#74

(08-19-2018, 08:33 AM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(08-19-2018, 08:07 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: That's where you are wrong. Moncrief is what he is. He's peaked. He's not a star and he never will be. He's just an average player.


I'm judging simply by on the field play.

So do you think Moncrief will make the team? lol

I have no idea. Judging strictly by play on the field, I see better WR's on the roster who should make it over him.
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#75

(08-19-2018, 04:54 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I made a couple of changes on my prediction. I believe we will only keep 3 TE's instead of 4 and with that said, I believe Ben Koyack will be the odd man out. He's a decent blocker, but offers little else. I still believe Wells will be the backup LT, but he looks awful and we may be looking to replace him with someone cut from another team. There will be some veterans, who have to be an upgrade over what Wells has shown so far. Despite him playing "wildly and out of control" at times, Donald Payne looks to have a hold on the final LB position. I think we will be sending Andrew Motuapuaka to the PS. By keeping only 3 TE's, that opens another roster spot and I believe it should go to Quenton Meeks. He has flashed and I'd like to keep him around for depth and to see what he can develop into. I still believe Carey makes it over Herndon for his special teams play. Orndorff and Wilds should be the favorites to make the PS. I believe we will add a young QB to the PS off another roster and another OT as well. From there, the rest of the spots are up for grabs. Some young QB's I'd be looking at for the PS would be Kevin Hogan of WASH, Tim Boyle of GB, Jake Rudock of DET, Mike White of Dallas and Josh Woodrum of BALT. All would be better options than Tanner Lee.

OFFENSE (26):

QB (2) Blake Bortles, Cody Kessler
RB (3) Leonard Fournette, T.J. Yeldon, Corey Grant
FB (1) Tommy Bohanon
WR (6) Marqise Lee, D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole, Shane Wynn, Jaydon Mickens
TE (4) Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Niles Paul, James O'Shaughnessy
OT (4) Cam Robinson, Jeremy Parnell, Will Richardson, Josh Wells
OG (4) Andrew Norwell, A. J. Cann, Chris Reed
C (2) Brandon Linder, Tyler Shatley, Tony Adams (OG/C)

DEFENSE (24):

DE (4) Calais Campbell, Yannick Nagkoue, Dante Fowler Jr., Dawuane Smoot
DT (5) Malik Jackson, Marcell Dareus, Abry Jones, Taven Bryan, Michael Bennett
LB (5) Telvin Smith, Myles Jack, Leon Jacobs, Blair Brown, Donald Payne, Lerentee McCray
CB (5) Jalen Ramsey, A. J. Boyue, Tyler Patmon, D.J. Hayden, Don Carey, Quenton Meeks
S (4) Barry Church, Tashaun Gibson, Jarrod Wilson, Ronnie Harrison

SPECIALISTS (3):

K Josh Lambo
P Logan Cooke
LS Carson Tinker



Practice Squad

Tre Herndon CB
Allen Lazard WR
Scott Orndorff TE
Brandon Wilds RB
Andrew Motuapuaka LB
Carroll Phillips, DE
QB off another team
OT off another team

Not bad.


I agree with the others that Moncrief will make the team (over Wynn). They wouldn't pay someone $9.6M and then cut him unless he was really terrible, and from what I read Moncrief looked good in camp.

You named only three guards. I'd guess Poehls would take a spot since he can play OG or OT, move Adams to the PS, and add a seventh WR (justified by calling Mickens a return specialist), in which case Greene has probably won the spot over Wynn.

I haven't seen anything from Brown to justify keeping him other than the rest of the backup LBs not excelling either. So Brown keeps a roster slot by default.

To summarize, I'd add Poehls, Moncrief and Greene, and subtract Wynn and Adams from your list. 

Of course there will probably be two more slots opened by injuries. I just hope Linder isn't already one of them.



                                                                          

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"
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#76

(08-19-2018, 09:09 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(08-19-2018, 08:33 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: So do you think Moncrief will make the team? lol

I have no idea. Judging strictly by play on the field, I see better WR's on the roster who should make it over him.
I have an idea. He will make the team no mater what.
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#77

(08-19-2018, 08:07 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(08-19-2018, 06:31 AM)Predator Wrote: Body type, speed, and youth mean everything in this sport. Freak athletes like Moncrief can open up the passing game without the ball even being thrown to them. Moncrief is also a much greater redzone threat. He has 1 less career TDs than Wright while playing almost 30 fewer games. That is a significant advantage especially when the team is trying to replace the TD production of a guy like Robinson

If the jags were looking for journeyman production with their signing, they would have saved money and gone with someone like Wright. What you fail to understand is that the Jags were looking for someone who has the potential to be much more than a journeyman and Moncrief has boatloads more potential to be that than Wright.

That's where you are wrong. Moncrief is what he is. He's peaked. He's not a star and he never will be. He's just ...

So Moncrief has peaked and has no chance to improve at 25 years old? 
I guess we’re all just drinking the kool-aid and hallucinating when we see that 26 year old QB getting better, huh?
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#78

(08-19-2018, 11:32 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(08-19-2018, 08:07 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: That's where you are wrong. Moncrief is what he is. He's peaked. He's not a star and he never will be. He's just ...

So Moncrief has peaked and has no chance to improve at 25 years old? 
I guess we’re all just drinking the kool-aid and hallucinating when we see that 26 year old QB getting better, huh?
Moncrief has peaked at 25 but not Shane Wynn... at 25.
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#79
(This post was last modified: 08-19-2018, 02:49 PM by JUNGLE CAT 2017.)

(08-19-2018, 02:01 AM)brianmsbc Wrote: Greene is a lock but Moncrief is not? Siliga, Orndoff, Meeks are also surprising locks. Kessler and Cody Davis are surprising no-locks.

Well? There has to be some suspense. We're only half way through pre-season.
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#80

(08-19-2018, 08:07 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(08-19-2018, 06:31 AM)Predator Wrote: Body type, speed, and youth mean everything in this sport. Freak athletes like Moncrief can open up the passing game without the ball even being thrown to them. Moncrief is also a much greater redzone threat. He has 1 less career TDs than Wright while playing almost 30 fewer games. That is a significant advantage especially when the team is trying to replace the TD production of a guy like Robinson

If the jags were looking for journeyman production with their signing, they would have saved money and gone with someone like Wright. What you fail to understand is that the Jags were looking for someone who has the potential to be much more than a journeyman and Moncrief has boatloads more potential to be that than Wright.

That's where you are wrong. Moncrief is what he is. He's peaked. He's not a star and he never will be. He's just an average player.


25 years old and has peaked? LOL! You have a lot to learn about football.

Wright is the only one that you can make a case for as having peaked and on top of that he wouldn't even be considered an average player. He is a fringe player at best which is proven by his tiny contract.
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