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A Draft Strategy Question

#1
(This post was last modified: 01-06-2019, 01:15 PM by Bullseye.)

In one of the best lines from "The Untouchables," Sean Connery is the grizzled Chicago beat cop who constantly asks the vastly overrated Kevin Costner "What are you prepared to do?"

Today I pose that question to you.


It is a given our Jaguars are a QB starved team.  Even with the salary cap departures sure to come, many of us have the sense we could still potentially be a playoff team if we can find a good young signal caller in the draft.  Dwayne Haskins has been a favorite subject of speculation, with a few indicating we should "give up the farm" to get him.

Indeed, even though many of the teams picking ahead of us drafted/acquired young QBs last year, QB is always a high demand position.  The Raiders at 4, Bucs at 5, Giants at 6 could potentially target a QB.  Below us, teams like Denver, Cincinnati, and as low as Washington at 15 could be interested in acquiring a signal caller and may be willing to deal up ahead of us to land him.

But should we "give up the farm" to trade up for Haskins?

That depends upon what constitutes the farm...specifically draft pick consideration.

Absent trading away established players, we may be asked to give up a future first round pick to move up.  If that's the case, I'm not sure I pull the trigger.

Next year is supposedly a stronger and deeper QB class.  Justin Herbert, who many speculated would have been the first QB taken in this year's crop.  Add in Tua, Fromm, and others, it appears the 2020 crop may rival the 2018 draft class.

Though that win over Miami cost us at least two draft spots, we are still in "reasonable" range to take Haskins.  As desperate as we are at QB, if I look at a long term approach, I'm inclined to take my chances with next year's class if the cost for trading up for Haskins involves a 2020 first round pick.    There is a chance we could move up without giving up next year's first or someone too valuable and still land Haskins.  If we wanted Haskins, got him, and still kept our 2020 first round pick, we could have a lot of draft capital next year if we understandably struggle with a rookie signal caller with our schedule.  If we hit on Haskins, with the strength of our schedule, we could still struggle and finish with a high pick.  In that scenario, we could finally pull off one of those blockbuster trades down that so many have wanted.

Of course there is considerable risk for that approach.  For Caldwell, Coughlin and Marrone, putting off finding a QB for another year could cost the team another winning season and them their jobs.  Without a young stud signal caller, we could see another underachieving and losing season.  A new GM/Coach combo would likely institute new schemes with new personnel requirements.  Furthermore, we are talented enough such that we could win enough games to put us out of range for one of the QBs next year.  With the quality of the signal callers in next year's class, teams within the top 5 or 10 may be more reluctant to deal down, and the cost of moving up may be more costly than it is this year, and at the end of the day, we may not have a QB this year OR next year.



If the cost for trading up involves next year's first round pick, I don't think I make the move up.

So what are you prepared to do...and why?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#2

I think you're right about the QB class being stronger in a year or two from now. As much as I like Haskins. I really think the Giants are going to take him ahead of us. And I can't see this staff rolling the dice with a rookie QB knowing they'll be starring down the barrel of unemployment in 2019 if everything goes to hell.

I could see us using a combination of those 3rd RD picks to trade for either Foles, Mullins or possibly Manning and Taylor (unless he's a free agent?). I would rather them focus on beefing up the offensive line and bolstering the skill positions some more on offense and look to the future in Fromm or Tua if they have to give up the farm to land Haskins. I wouldn't be opposed to them drafting a guy like Finley or Grier on day two as well.

Just to have added insurance. But it's a major, major concern going into 2019. Not having a QB in the NFL is terrifying. We don't even have a guy that can register in the top half of the NFL at the moment. Could be in for a long, long 2019 campaign.

Perfect scenario though. We don't have to move up at all. We just luck out and land Haskins with the 7th overall pick and the teams in front of us go in a different direction at the QB position. But IMHO, once the combine starts rolling and teams actually get to sit down with Haskins and pick his brain for his football I.Q. He'll end up being a top five pick after a team moves up to get him.
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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."
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#3

I'm not on the "Haskins or no one" train regarding this draft class, so I'd be fine sitting at #7 and waiting it out.
I'm actually open to trading down a bit and selecting Grier or Lock - though I know that's probably not a popular opinion.

Whether they decide to be be ropers in the rodeo for QBs like Foles, Flacco, Bridgewater, Tannehill etc will be a major determining factor as well.

Which of those FA quarterbacks they do or do not pursue, and which "bridge" QB ends up appearing to be the guy prior to the draft may hint as to how aggressive they might be in the draft.

All of that said - I wouldn't hate moving up for Haskins but I'd be very trepidatious about how much capital they'd give up to do so.

I just hope they don't take a pass because it's perceived a weak class. Take a flyer on one of these guys even if it doesn't work out. Just put your money on the table and make an attempt to upgrade the position. (even if it's outside the first round)
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#4

(01-06-2019, 01:22 PM)Caldrac Wrote: I think you're right about the QB class being stronger in a year or two from now. As much as I like Haskins. I really think the Giants are going to take him ahead of us. And I can't see this staff rolling the dice with a rookie QB knowing they'll be starring down the barrel of unemployment in 2019 if everything goes to hell.

I could see us using a combination of those 3rd RD picks to trade for either Foles, Mullins or possibly Manning and Taylor (unless he's a free agent?). I would rather them focus on beefing up the offensive line and bolstering the skill positions some more on offense and look to the future in Fromm or Tua if they have to give up the farm to land Haskins. I wouldn't be opposed to them drafting a guy like Finley or Grier on day two as well.

Just to have added insurance. But it's a major, major concern going into 2019. Not having a QB in the NFL is terrifying. We don't even have a guy that can register in the top half of the NFL at the moment. Could be in for a long, long 2019 campaign.

Perfect scenario though. We don't have to move up at all. We just luck out and land Haskins with the 7th overall pick and the teams in front of us go in a different direction at the QB position. But IMHO, once the combine starts rolling and teams actually get to sit down with Haskins and pick his brain for his football I.Q. He'll end up being a top five pick after a team moves up to get him.

Missing at QB puts a team in a very bad spot.

That is the lesson we have learned from missing on BL, Gabbert, and now Bortles.

We always seem to be a year or two off from the great QBs.

In 2003, we picked BL, and as a result, bypassed Big Ben in 2004 and Rogers in 2005.

In 2011 we picked Gabbert, and bypassed J.J. Watt, Robert Quinn, Mike Pouncey, Ryan Kerrigan and Nate Solder that year, and missing out on Luck in 2012.

In 2014, we picked Bortles, and as a result, bypassed Watson and Mahomes in 2017.

We aren't desperate to draft a QB.

We are desperate to draft the right QB.

That makes the decision particularly tough.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#5

We have too many needs on the O to commit trading the farm for Haskins.

We realistically need a starting WR, OT, OG,TE and QB.
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#6
(This post was last modified: 01-06-2019, 01:45 PM by Bullseye.)

(01-06-2019, 01:31 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: I'm not on the "Haskins or no one" train regarding this draft class, so I'd be fine sitting at #7 and waiting it out.
I'm actually open to trading down a bit and selecting Grier or Lock - though I know that's probably not a popular opinion.

Whether they decide to be be ropers in the rodeo for QBs like Foles, Flacco, Bridgewater, Tannehill etc will be a major determining factor as well.

Which of those FA quarterbacks  they do or do not pursue, and which "bridge" QB ends up appearing to the guy prior to the draft may hint as to how aggressive they might be in the draft.

All of that said - I wouldn't hate moving up for Haskins but I'd be very trepidatious about how much capital they'd give up to do so.

I just hope they don't take a pass because it's perceived a weak class. Take a flyer on one of these guys even if it doesn't work out. Just put your money on the table and make an attempt to upgrade the position.

I'm open to the idea of trading down for Lock or Grier.

But I wouldn't get too cute about it.

Denver, Cincinnati Miami. Green Bay and Washington could all take QBs.

Denver signed Keenum, but the deal was not cost prohibitive.  Besides they will have a new coach, and new coaches like their own QBs.

After 16 years, the Bengals got rid of Marvin Lewis.  I think they have a decent QB in Andy Dalton, but he hasn't won a playoff game.  Another new coach will likely want his own guy. 

Miami?  Rinse and repeat.  A new coach will likely want his own guy, and Tannehill can't stay healthy.

With two first round picks and a past history of taking Rogers with Favre still on the roster, sitting Rogers for a few years behind a Hall of Famer, then transitioning to the new guy, I could easily see the Packers taking Grier.

Alex Smith's career may be over with that horrific broken leg he suffered a while back.  There was serious speculation his leg could have been amputated.  Fortunately he avoided that, but at his age, can he come back from the Theismann-esque injury.

The more I think about it, the more I hate the position we are in.

(01-06-2019, 01:36 PM)BlueEyedJag Wrote: We have too many needs on the O to commit trading the farm for Haskins.

We realistically need a  starting WR, OT, OG,TE and QB.

A perfectly reasonable take.

Assuming no trades up or down and Haskins, Lock, Grier, et al are still on the board at 7, which of those positions do you take?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#7

(01-06-2019, 01:44 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(01-06-2019, 01:31 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: I'm not on the "Haskins or no one" train regarding this draft class, so I'd be fine sitting at #7 and waiting it out.
I'm actually open to trading down a bit and selecting Grier or Lock - though I know that's probably not a popular opinion.

Whether they decide to be be ropers in the rodeo for QBs like Foles, Flacco, Bridgewater, Tannehill etc will be a major determining factor as well.

Which of those FA quarterbacks  they do or do not pursue, and which "bridge" QB ends up appearing to the guy prior to the draft may hint as to how aggressive they might be in the draft.

All of that said - I wouldn't hate moving up for Haskins but I'd be very trepidatious about how much capital they'd give up to do so.

I just hope they don't take a pass because it's perceived a weak class. Take a flyer on one of these guys even if it doesn't work out. Just put your money on the table and make an attempt to upgrade the position.

I'm open to the idea of trading down for Lock or Grier.

But I wouldn't get too cute about it.

Denver, Cincinnati Miami. Green Bay and Washington could all take QBs.

Denver signed Keenum, but the deal was not cost prohibitive.  Besides they will have a new coach, and new coaches like their own QBs.

After 16 years, the Bengals got rid of Marvin Lewis.  I think they have a decent QB in Andy Dalton, but he hasn't won a playoff game.  Another new coach will likely want his own guy. 

Miami?  Rinse and repeat.  A new coach will likely want his own guy, and Tannehill can't stay healthy.

With two first round picks and a past history of taking Rogers with Favre still on the roster, sitting Rogers for a few years behind a Hall of Famer, then transitioning to the new guy, I could easily see the Packers taking Grier.

Alex Smith's career may be over with that horrific broken leg he suffered a while back.  There was serious speculation his leg could have been amputated.  Fortunately he avoided that, but at his age, can he come back from the Theismann-esque injury.

The more I think about it, the more I hate the position we are in.

(01-06-2019, 01:36 PM)BlueEyedJag Wrote: We have too many needs on the O to commit trading the farm for Haskins.

We realistically need a  starting WR, OT, OG,TE and QB.

A perfectly reasonable take.

Assuming no trades up or down and Haskins, Lock, Grier, et al are still on the board at 7, which of those positions do you take?

Haskins no doubt if he is there...I just dont want to sacrifice 2nd/3rd round this year and possibly next year 1st to get him.

If they aren't sold on Grier/Lock at 7 I would look to trade down for someone wanting one of the DL prospects.

Maybe you even go something crazy like OL in the 1st...WR in the 2nd...TE in the 3rd and take a flyer on Tyree Jackson with the second 3rd rounder or grab him later.
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#8

IMO, Haskins has the chance to be special. Herbert looked very average this past season and I'm still on the fence about Tua, besides, he might stay in for the 2020 class. Next year's draft class doesn't get me too excited. I really, really like Haskins though and if we trade #6, next years first round pick, one of our 3rds, I do it it without hesitation.
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#9

(01-06-2019, 02:28 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: IMO, Haskins has the chance to be special. Herbert looked very average this past season and I'm still on the fence about Tua, besides, he might stay in for the 2020 class. Next year's draft class doesn't get me too excited. I really, really like Haskins though and if we trade #6, next years first round pick, one of our 3rds, I do it it without hesitation.

2020 IS next year's draft.  Are you saying he may not come out until 2021?

We have the #7, not 6.

I really like what I've seen with Haskins.

I have a couple concerns:

1.  one year's starting experience
2.  Urban Meyer's system/OSU's QB history
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#10

There is no one in this draft I would trade up for. Especially not giving up next years first. I've made my opinions about Haskins known in a couple other threads so no need to harp on them. Although I will say if more analysis on him comes out, I could be swayed to move up to grab him. I'm happy with staying put and taking Haskins at 7. He is the best QB prospect in this draft and we need to take someone. If we dont grab Haskins at 7, I'd be intrigued with trading back. I'd like to grab Grier in that scenario. Ideally we could get him with our 2nd rounder. Not sure if he'd be there.

I feel like every year we think the next year is going to be even better for QBs. But then as we see with a lot of hyped QBs, the more they play the more their weaknesses come to light and they get exposed. It's the rationale behind wanting to draft a guy with 30+ starts. As far as next year, Herbert didnt take the step forward you thought he would this year; will he next year. Tua may not have the size or arm. Fromm, while seemed to take a step above game manager this year, doesnt seem to do anything extraordinary at this point. I don't think it's a given next year will be a lot better. The only elite level QB prospect that played college football this past year is Trevor Lawrence and obviously he is two years away. And he only has one year under his belt as well. Lets wait to see where he is two years from now.


________________________________________________
Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.
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#11

(01-06-2019, 02:39 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(01-06-2019, 02:28 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: IMO, Haskins has the chance to be special. Herbert looked very average this past season and I'm still on the fence about Tua, besides, he might stay in for the 2020 class. Next year's draft class doesn't get me too excited. I really, really like Haskins though and if we trade #6, next years first round pick, one of our 3rds, I do it it without hesitation.

2020 IS next year's draft.  Are you saying he may not come out until 2021?

We have the #7, not 6.

I really like what I've seen with Haskins.

I have a couple concerns:

1.  one year's starting experience
2.  Urban Meyer's system/OSU's QB history
There’s concerns with every prospect that has ever come out. Haskins is no different.

However, I’m not sold the 2020 draft will be some world beater. Does Tua come out? Does Fromm come out? Is Herbert actually good? I think Haskins would have been the #1 QB had Herbert stayed in the 2019 draft.

So much can happen in a year and if the Jags have a shot at Haskins, I believe they need to take it. He has all the arm tools. He keeps his eyes downfield, moves well in the pocket but most of all, he seems to stay cool and calm at all times.

I think if the Jags drafted Haskins and get a TE in the draft, they can be a 10 win team next season.
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#12
(This post was last modified: 01-06-2019, 03:39 PM by JackCity.)

If you can get Haskins this year you do it, even if it means giving up next years 1st.

if we can't get Haskins I really don't know what to do. Lock and Jones do nothing for me and I know if we take them we won't take someone next year regardless of how he plays.
I'd probably take Grier or Jackson in the 2nd, evaluate them for a year and then take a QB next year too if needs be
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#13
(This post was last modified: 01-06-2019, 03:54 PM by roycee.)

Someones mentioned trading down for him. But I'm Not sold on Lock at all. But I'm also not in the front office.

I think Grier could be a good 1st round target Haskins in my opinion is option 1. Then best lineman (offense or defense) available is option 2. Then #3 trade down and snag Grier.

I honestly think a surprise high QB pick may be Daniel Jones to the Giants. He seems like a guy Gettleman, Shula, and Shurmur would love.

(01-06-2019, 03:39 PM)JackCity Wrote: If you can get Haskins this year you do it, even if it means giving up next years 1st.  

if we can't get Haskins I really don't know what to do. Lock and Jones do nothing for me and I know if we take them we won't take someone next year regardless of how he plays.  
I'd probably take Grier or Jackson in the 2nd, evaluate them for a year and then take a QB next year too if needs be

Tyree Jackson in the 2nd?
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#14

(01-06-2019, 02:28 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: IMO, Haskins has the chance to be special. Herbert looked very average this past season and I'm still on the fence about Tua, besides, he might stay in for the 2020 class. Next year's draft class doesn't get me too excited. I really, really like Haskins though and if we trade #6, next years first round pick, one of our 3rds, I do it it without hesitation.

I'm in total agreement with you on this one. Of course, our front office and scouts need to be convinced that Haskins can be an elite quarterback. If he does become elite, nobody will care that they gave up 2020's 1st rounder.  Haskins will still need to sit for a while due to his lack of experience. They should be able to find a veteran "bridge" quarterback who can win, especially if the defense and running games perform at the level they did in 2017-18.
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#15

This is a bad QB class, but it does have one special player at the top. Haskins would very possibly be the #1 QB in next years class too. Trevor Lawrence in 2021 is the only guy I would rather have than Haskins right now. If we can get him, do it. Give up a lot to do it too.

If we can't, then just take Tyree Jackson as a devvy QB that isn't depended on and then get your guy in 2020. Lock/Jones/Grier is just going to lead us to mediocrity.
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#16

(01-06-2019, 03:53 PM)roycee Wrote: Someones mentioned trading down for him. But I'm Not sold on Lock at all. But I'm also not in the front office.

I think Grier could be a good 1st round target Haskins in my opinion is option 1. Then best lineman (offense or defense) available is option 2. Then #3 trade down and snag Grier.

I honestly think a surprise high QB pick may be Daniel Jones to the Giants. He seems like a guy Gettleman, Shula, and Shurmur would love.

(01-06-2019, 03:39 PM)JackCity Wrote: If you can get Haskins this year you do it, even if it means giving up next years 1st.  

if we can't get Haskins I really don't know what to do. Lock and Jones do nothing for me and I know if we take them we won't take someone next year regardless of how he plays.  
I'd probably take Grier or Jackson in the 2nd, evaluate them for a year and then take a QB next year too if needs be

Tyree Jackson in the 2nd?

Yeah Tyree Jackson in the 2nd.
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#17
(This post was last modified: 01-06-2019, 05:15 PM by Jags.)

Honestly, I think it all depends on how FA shakes out.  Surely, the Jags will sign someone.  How confident they are in rolling with the stop gap can affect how much they can relax in the draft and take a guy that falls or take one in rd2.   But, the FO’s jobs are on the line. I really wouldnt be surprised by a huge trade or a big signing.
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#18

(01-06-2019, 05:14 PM)Jags Wrote: Honestly, I think it all depends on how FA shakes out.  Surely, the Jags will sign someone.  How confident they are in rolling with the stop gap can affect how much they can relax in the draft and take a guy that falls or take one in rd2.   But, the FO’s jobs are on the line. I really wouldnt be surprised by a huge trade or a big signing.

What they do in the draft definitely hinges on what they do at QB in free agency. 
It's the million dollar question. 

Do they sign a probable starter?
A bridge? 
Or just a viable back-up to compete with a rookie? 
Or *gulp* do they roll with Bortles as one of those latter options?
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#19
(This post was last modified: 01-06-2019, 05:30 PM by roycee.)

(01-06-2019, 05:09 PM)JackCity Wrote:
(01-06-2019, 03:53 PM)roycee Wrote: Someones mentioned trading down for him. But I'm Not sold on Lock at all. But I'm also not in the front office.

I think Grier could be a good 1st round target Haskins in my opinion is option 1. Then best lineman (offense or defense) available is option 2. Then #3 trade down and snag Grier.

I honestly think a surprise high QB pick may be Daniel Jones to the Giants. He seems like a guy Gettleman, Shula, and Shurmur would love.


Tyree Jackson in the 2nd?

Yeah Tyree Jackson in the 2nd.

I get the hype surrounding him. But I'm not buying into it. To me dudes a mid round pick.

Apparently he got a "stay in school" from the draft advisory board which is 3rd round or later.
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#20

(01-06-2019, 05:18 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(01-06-2019, 05:14 PM)Jags Wrote: Honestly, I think it all depends on how FA shakes out.  Surely, the Jags will sign someone.  How confident they are in rolling with the stop gap can affect how much they can relax in the draft and take a guy that falls or take one in rd2.   But, the FO’s jobs are on the line. I really wouldnt be surprised by a huge trade or a big signing.

What they do in the draft definitely hinges on what they do at QB in free agency. 
It's the million dollar question. 

Do they sign a probable starter?
A bridge? 
Or just a viable back-up to compete with a rookie? 
Or *gulp* do they roll with Bortles as one of those latter options?

It’s certainly going to be an exciting/eventful off season.  At this point, Tom, Dave and Doug need to figure out the best option and go for broke to make it happen more than likely.  If they knew they had 2 years, that even could change how it is approached.  I’m glad I’m not making the decision.
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