Personally, I think about rookie QBs in regards to one question: do they have a chance to be elite?

In this draft class I would suggest Haskins is clearly the top option because he has a high ceiling as an accurate pocket passer. He also has a pretty high floor because he has all the tools a QB needs and has shown a high level of play in big games in college, it would be a big surprise to see him be a total bust. Therefore I'd give him a 25% chance of being elite, a 5% chance of being a total bust. That gives him a 70% chance of being a somewhere around average QB in the NFL. For comparisons sake, most starters in the NFL fall into this category, for example Blake would be in there on the low side of average, maybe someone like Cousins in there on the high side of average.

Murray is a lot more difficult to project, and as such must have a much higher bust %. With his height and frame being almost unprecedented in the NFL, and coming from a lower standard of competition in college, let's say Murray has a 30% chance of being a total bust. However, even the people that would never draft him because of his size, most of them would admit that there is at least a chance that he becomes special. He has shown enough in his play that makes your jaw-drop, great athleticism, amazing arm talent, intelligent play. I'd say his chances of becoming elite are the same as Haskins at about 25%. That leaves him with a 45% chance of being about average.

As for the rest of the QBs in the draft, it's really hard to give anyone more than a 5% chance of becoming an elite QB in this league. You have guys like Jones and Lock who might have the intangibles and the physical profile, but for them to become elite requires them to take a massive leap in their talent level over the next few years, which isn't something you can rely on. Jones and Lock both might have a relatively small bust potential, which might make them appealing to some people (especially considering the Jags are the kind of team that just needs steady QB play to have success), but really if you draft them the best you can hope for is for them to develop into an above average NFL QB.

It comes down to risk vs. reward, do you want to protect yourself by drafting a QB who will probably be a reasonable NFL QB is 4 years time, or do you want to go for the guy who could set the league on fire, but equally likely could be out the league entirely in 2 years time? I'm going for that guy, let's be pioneers for a change! (or just trade up and make sure you get Haskins, best of both worlds lol).

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