(03-13-2019, 10:38 AM)JAGFAN88 Wrote:

(03-13-2019, 10:36 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: To be fair this isn't rigorous statistical evaluation.

If we wanted to be anal about it first we'd have to determine what average means. If it's based on statistics it would have to all be rate based. Then we'd have to figure out what a standard deviation is in that stat, then we could figure up the likelihood of an "average" QB having that statistical performance. Doesn't really seem worth the time. We already know he was good enough to be minutes and a defensive nosedive from the Superbowl. If he's truly below average it's probably not that far.

Wouldnt you also have to figure in the massive amount of drops??

That could certainly be done, but assuming a large enough sample size for figuring the average and also for evaluating Bortles stats it's likely unnecessary.

The real issue is determining what average means. If it means everyone that has ever picked up a football professional or not then Bortles is statistically indistinguishable from Tom Brady. If it means among NFL starters that have thrown more than 2000 passes in the last five seasons it would show heavily against him because most of the time when a QB plays badly they don't get multiple seasons uninterrupted to build up that many attempts.

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