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Jags' Offensive Tackle Draft Pattern

#1

Was checking out an interesting article that outlines the Jags drafting tendencies for OT.
(link below)

While I think Coughlin's presence at EVP renders this extensive analysis of Caldwell's work a roll of the dice moving forward, it's fun to look at the tackles that match Caldwells history of preferred physical traits.

Notable prospects ranked prior to the fifth round who match that standard well include:

Jawaan Taylor
Oli Udoh
Greg Little
Dalton Risner
Tytus Howard

Matching prospects projected to go late or undrafted include:

Isaiah Prince
Joshua Miles
Martez Ivey
William Sweet
Matt Kaufman
Michael Jordan

Remember - these are simply prospects that have traits resembling those that Caldwell and company have appeared to value. 

https://www.lockedonjaguars.com/jaguars/...hresholds/
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#2

Big shocker that the (not a match) tier is the tier w/ the good players. We emphasize the stuff that doesn't correlate to NFL success and we reap the non rewards.
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#3

(04-09-2019, 05:17 PM)Upper Wrote: Big shocker that the (not a match) tier is the tier w/ the good players. We emphasize the stuff that doesn't correlate to NFL success and we reap the non rewards.

What was the three cone number  short shuttle  you said you like to target for these guys?

Risner ran a 4.52
Little 4.72
Howard 4.87

I'm curious if any of these players fit Caldwells tendencies as well as the threshold you value for shuttle times.
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#4
(This post was last modified: 04-09-2019, 06:41 PM by Upper.)

(04-09-2019, 05:45 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(04-09-2019, 05:17 PM)Upper Wrote: Big shocker that the (not a match) tier is the tier w/ the good players. We emphasize the stuff that doesn't correlate to NFL success and we reap the non rewards.

What was the three cone number  short shuttle  you said you like to target for these guys?

Risner ran a 4.52
Little 4.72
Howard 4.87

I'm curious if any of these players fit Caldwells tendencies as well as the threshold you value for shuttle times.

Norris' chart says 4.47 is the "don't double count" elite mark that makes you almost a guaranteed long term starter. Dillard is the only one that achieved that this year with his bonkers 4.40. Justis says 4.75 is the low end of the threshold, taken from reverse engineering the Packers tendencies and results. Any team that has found Bulaga, Bakhtiari, Sitton, Lang, Linsley, and Tretter (the last 5 all round 4 or later!) is who I want to emulate.

Risner is the one dude from the first two tiers of the article you posted that I'd be very happy with. But I fear he's almost a lock to be gone in the 20s, very possibly to the Texans. In another thread I asked if you would be willing to give up our Rams 3rd rounder to trade up to the late 20s if Risner happened to fall there but I don't think you saw it. I think I'd be ok with doing that.
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#5

(04-09-2019, 05:45 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(04-09-2019, 05:17 PM)Upper Wrote: Big shocker that the (not a match) tier is the tier w/ the good players. We emphasize the stuff that doesn't correlate to NFL success and we reap the non rewards.

What was the three cone number  short shuttle  you said you like to target for these guys?

Risner ran a 4.52
Little 4.72
Howard 4.87

I'm curious if any of these players fit Caldwells tendencies as well as the threshold you value for shuttle times.
Laughing
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#6
(This post was last modified: 04-09-2019, 07:48 PM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(04-09-2019, 05:06 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: Was checking out an interesting article that outlines the Jags drafting tendencies for OT.
(link below)

While I think Coughlin's presence at EVP renders this extensive analysis of Caldwell's work a roll of the dice moving forward, it's fun to look at the tackles that match Caldwells history of preferred physical traits.

Notable prospects ranked prior to the fifth round who match that standard well include:

Jawaan Taylor
Oli Udoh
Greg Little
Dalton Risner
Tytus Howard

Matching prospects projected to go late or undrafted include:

Isaiah Prince
Joshua Miles
Martez Ivey
William Sweet
Matt Kaufman
Michael Jordan

Remember - these are simply prospects that have traits resembling those that Caldwell and company have appeared to value. 

https://www.lockedonjaguars.com/jaguars/...hresholds/

I can't imagine Udoh going that high. He has measurables, but he is a small school project who got absolutely "lit up" at the East/West Shrine game. I thought he looked awful. He had very slow feet.
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#7

(04-09-2019, 06:36 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(04-09-2019, 05:45 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: What was the three cone number  short shuttle  you said you like to target for these guys?

Risner ran a 4.52
Little 4.72
Howard 4.87

I'm curious if any of these players fit Caldwells tendencies as well as the threshold you value for shuttle times.
Laughing
please make a point

(04-09-2019, 07:47 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(04-09-2019, 05:06 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: Was checking out an interesting article that outlines the Jags drafting tendencies for OT.
(link below)

While I think Coughlin's presence at EVP renders this extensive analysis of Caldwell's work a roll of the dice moving forward, it's fun to look at the tackles that match Caldwells history of preferred physical traits.

Notable prospects ranked prior to the fifth round who match that standard well include:

Jawaan Taylor
Oli Udoh
Greg Little
Dalton Risner
Tytus Howard

...

I can't imagine Udoh going that high. He has measurables, but he is a small school project who got absolutely "lit up" at the East/West Shrine game. I thought he looked awful. He had very slow feet.

Yeah - maybe.

I'm just listing guys that have been projected prior to the fifth by more than one of the four boards I referenced. 
Udoh was higher than 140 on two of them.
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#8

(04-09-2019, 06:32 PM)Upper Wrote:
(04-09-2019, 05:45 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: What was the three cone number  short shuttle  you said you like to target for these guys?

Risner ran a 4.52
Little 4.72
Howard 4.87

I'm curious if any of these players fit Caldwells tendencies as well as the threshold you value for shuttle times.

Norris' chart says 4.47 is the "don't double count" elite mark that makes you almost a guaranteed long term starter. Dillard is the only one that achieved that this year with his bonkers 4.40. Justis says 4.75 is the low end of the threshold, taken from reverse engineering the Packers tendencies and results. Any team that has found Bulaga, Bakhtiari, Sitton, Lang, Linsley, and Tretter (the last 5 all round 4 or later!) is who I want to emulate.

Risner is the one dude from the first two tiers of the article you posted that I'd be very happy with. But I fear he's almost a lock to be gone in the 20s, very possibly to the Texans. In another thread I asked if you would be willing to give up our Rams 3rd rounder to trade up to the late 20s if Risner happened to fall there but I don't think you saw it. I think I'd be ok with doing that.

Thank you.

Yes, I like Risner enough to do that even though I think there will be good RB and WR talent available with that pick.  I value his versatility more than some might.

What is your take on Greg Little as a RT prospect?  His shuttle time is pretty good.   I've seen him on big boards anywhere from #38 to #107.  Where do you think he falls?  I'm guessing mid-to-late second round.

Tytus Howard's time is also pretty impressive for a guy over 320 pounds.
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#9

I'm not a Little fan. He does barely make the minimum threshold for shuttle, but I don't like what I watched of him. I would much prefer McGary at 38. I guess if he's there in the 3rd it wouldn't be so bad though.

I haven't watched Tytus so I don't really want to comment too much on him. He has a very poor athletic profile other than his weight and 40 yard dash, which is like the least important drill for an OL. I think he might be interesting if he were moved to guard, but I really can't say too strongly.
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#10

(04-10-2019, 01:46 PM)Upper Wrote: I'm not a Little fan. He does barely make the minimum threshold for shuttle, but I don't like what I watched of him. I would much prefer McGary at 38. I guess if he's there in the 3rd it wouldn't be so bad though.

I haven't watched Tytus so I don't really want to comment too much on him. He has a very poor athletic profile other than his weight and 40 yard dash, which is like the least important drill for an OL. I think he might be interesting if he were moved to guard, but I really can't say too strongly.

Tytus Howard may have tested poorly, but he had a great Senior Bowl week and was fantastic against the best players in the NCAA in the game as well.
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#11
(This post was last modified: 04-10-2019, 01:58 PM by Upper.)

Don't overthink it Jags, if you must go OT at 7 take Dillard. Easy choice to protect your new franchise QB, not the one who will help cement the stone age offense.

(also, try to do what you can to get Risner even if you have to trade up some)

https://twitter.com/PFF_Mike/status/1116010372648009728
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#12

(04-10-2019, 01:57 PM)Upper Wrote: Don't overthink it Jags, if you must go OT at 7 take Dillard. Easy choice to protect your new franchise QB, not the one who will help cement the stone age offense.

(also, try to do what you can to get Risner even if you have to trade up some)

https://twitter.com/PFF_Mike/status/1116010372648009728

You can check my post history... I've been banging the Risner drum for awhile (RG, RT, and C)

I even said "DO NOT REACH" for guys like Taylor and Williams and slightly tongue in cheek said if you're gonna reach, take Ford or Risner at 7 lol

If Risner somehow lasts to the 2nd round he'll be a helluva steal.
I wouldn't mind trading our 2nd and a 3rd to move up to 20 and nab him...
That would mean the first rounder was likely Hock (or Fant)
And the other 3rd could still be used for WR/RB/FS/QB

I'd pee myself a little if we end up with Hock and Risner with our first two picks.
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#13
(This post was last modified: 04-10-2019, 06:25 PM by flgatorsandjags.)

I'd be good with Risner in the 2nd. I don't think any Jags fans wanted Taylor at 7, only the talking heads.

1. Hockenson
2. Oliver
3. Metcalf

My top 3
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#14

Mike Kaye interview w/ Risner:

https://www.nj.com/eagles/2019/04/nfl-dr...am-qa.html
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#15

Hock in the first, Risner in the second = very happy me.

Also, this twitter thread from one of the PFF guys makes interesting reading. Should be taken with a pinch of salt as usual. https://twitter.com/PFF_Mike/status/1116010159019560966
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#16

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/dr...caa-to-nfl

I'm liking Risner more and more.
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#17

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/dr...king-grade
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/dr...king-grade

Risner ranks first in run blocking grade, tied first in pass blocking grade. He lit up the Senior Bowl and looked good at the combine. I'm not entirely sure he's not the best tackle in this draft...
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#18

(04-11-2019, 01:31 PM)JagJohn Wrote: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/dr...king-grade
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/dr...king-grade

Risner ranks first in run blocking grade, tied first in pass blocking grade. He lit up the Senior Bowl and looked good at the combine. I'm not entirely sure he's not the best tackle in this draft...

Man. Now I am wanting us to draft him, lol.
[Image: images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSIM9bZmkezB9B4qD2qAtT...IGQHCZIPuA]
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#19

(04-11-2019, 01:33 PM)Dimson Wrote:
(04-11-2019, 01:31 PM)JagJohn Wrote: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/dr...king-grade
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/dr...king-grade

Risner ranks first in run blocking grade, tied first in pass blocking grade. He lit up the Senior Bowl and looked good at the combine. I'm not entirely sure he's not the best tackle in this draft...

Man. Now I am wanting us to draft him, lol.

Risner bandwagon filling up. I very much doubt he'll be there for our 2nd rounder. Ideal situation is trading back a few spots from 7, picking up a few extra picks, and then packaging something to move up into the back end of the 1st round for Risner. Then BAP from there on out. Lovely jubbly.
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#20
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2019, 09:07 AM by Kane.)

(04-11-2019, 01:31 PM)JagJohn Wrote: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/dr...king-grade
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/dr...king-grade

Risner ranks first in run blocking grade, tied first in pass blocking grade. He lit up the Senior Bowl and looked good at the combine. I'm not entirely sure he's not the best tackle in this draft...

IMO, he's the best RT in the draft.
The other guys are LTs that aren't great LTs so they'll be moved to RT...... which, I mean, I guess?
Also, he's played 3 positions and probably is a top 5 RG in this draft.
Can play Center if (when) Linder gets dinged.

I think Risner is a top 20 selection when all is said and done.
Which means we're probably missing out unless we trade back to the teens and take him there.
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