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Offseason evaluation

#1
(This post was last modified: 04-29-2019, 04:30 PM by jaglou53. Edit Reason: changed post-season to offseason )

The Jaguars entered the offseason with needs in several areas. Now that the draft is over, how did they do? I give the team an overall grade of A- which should enable them to compete with the Colts for first place in the AFC South. My grade is based on how they addressed the following positions of need:

1. Quarterback: Greatest need and they landed the best guy to help them immediately. Foles is not elite, but he has proven he's a winner when he has a good supporting cast.

2. Right Tackle: Getting Taylor in the 2nd round was the biggest steal of the draft. Most had him going in the 1st half of round 1. Day 1 starter.

3. Tight end: No Hockenson, but Oliver and Swaim are a big upgrade. Most draftniks had Oliver in the 2nd wave of tight ends after the big 3. He is a very athletic guy who should eventually
                   become a safety valve for Foles.

4. Pass rusher: Josh Allen was another steal. No quarterback wants to face Yannick, Allen, Campbell and Dareus on passing downs.

5. Safety: This area was neglected other than the re-signing of Wilson. Obviously, our brass felt this wasn't a strong need. I'm not so sure about that.


Bottom line, the team did a very good job in addressing their greatest needs in the post-season. They felt safety and wide receiver will be ok going into next season without adding upgrades to 
these positions. As is the case every season, it will all come down to which teams avoid crippling injuries to their roster. It wouldn't surprise me if both the Colts and Jaguars make it to the post-season next year which is all we can ask for after such a disappointing 2018 season.

Sorry for the bad typing. Still working on that.
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#2

Agree with most of your takes.

I think Safety though is a spot they still need to address but there was a lot of safety turnover across the league this off season. I can easily see some veterans being cut to save money elsewhere. And the issue there is mostly depth, or if Wilson does not live up to expectations.
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#3

Biggest resrvation I have is that the team may not have done enough to fill out the RB ranks. If Fournette is hurt (again), we are left with a rookie, and a bunch of reserve/older guys. I have a feeling they may be scavenging through the dumpsters when teams start whittling rosters down to 53 before the season starts.
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#4

They needed an upgrade at QB. Foles was the best available player in the market and we had to make a move. Whether it pans out or not remains to be seen. But they deserve credit for going after him. Hopefully he's the guy for years to come. 

They needed a RT. They stole one potentially with the 35th overall selection in Jawaan Taylor. I like it. 

They needed a receiving type TE in order for this system to get moving and for Foles and Flip to gameplan. Oliver with the 69th pick may be the answer to that part of the offense. 

They needed more depth at RB. They addressed it by taking that "small school" guy from Temple in the 5th RD. Was hoping for a guy like Justice Hill or Miles Sanders instead but this kid might be alright. Remains to be seen. 

All in all. They did enough to patch up some holes that were pretty damn glaring and obvious to the local and national pundits. And of course us folks in the fanbase. They just have to figure out a way to make it all work. Stay healthy. Limit mistakes, etc. I don't expect a 2017 type season where the defense destroys weak offenses and feasts on turnover after turnover after turnover. But I do expect a much more balanced football team with the additions they've made on the offensive side of the football which in turn should allow the defense to breath a little bit more. 

I applaud them for taking Allen and not reaching for a need and letting that value slip right through their hands. You cannot [BLEEP] up that selection. And if Quincy Williams ends up being a better version of Telvin Smith or a solid rotational player by 2020? I can live with them dropping a 98th overall selection on a truly small school prospect. But I still feel fairly good about what they've done on offense. I think this is a 6 - 10 squad at the minimum with a few injuries here and there. And they're potentially a 9 - 7 club if everything runs perfectly. Which gives them a shot at the play-offs. 

Somewhere in between 6 - 9 wins is fair this season. At least to me it is.
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#5

(04-29-2019, 04:40 PM)Mikey Wrote: Biggest resrvation I have is that the team may not have done enough to fill out the RB ranks. If Fournette is hurt (again), we are left with a rookie, and a bunch of reserve/older guys. I have a feeling they may be scavenging through the dumpsters when teams start whittling rosters down to 53 before the season starts.

While far from world beaters, they did add Alfred Blue, Thomas Rawls, and Benny Cunningham.
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#6

I'm praying UDFA Bunchy Stallings makes the team. He was a very good player in college and I'm shocked he wasn't drafted. I believe he will push Cann in training camp and the preseason, because he is a much better run blocker than Cann. Pushing A.J. Cann to the bench would make me much more confident in this offense, because we still lack interior O-Line depth. Josh Allen is gonna be a stud. He was my top player in the draft. I'm not a fan of Jawaan Taylor, but hopefully he proves me wrong. At least he's another body on the O-Line. Everyone knows I wanted Hockenson, but we simply could not pass on Allen. Getting a really good pass catching TE was paramount and I believe Oliver was one of the better pass catchers in this draft. I could even see him leading this team in receiving, based on how much Foles uses the TE position. Saivion Smith is an interesting UDFA pickup. I don't see him as a CB prospect, but I believe he could be a good starting FS if given the time to develop. Wilson will probably start this year, but I'm o.k. with that since our secondary is loaded with great players around him. I also like the addition of RB Ryquell Armstead. He'll surprise some people.
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#7

Hays Carlyon on the offseason grading:

https://www.1010xl.com/2019/04/29/jaguar...e-success/
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#8

(04-29-2019, 04:29 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: The Jaguars entered the post-season with needs in several areas. Now that the draft is over, how did they do? I give the team an overall grade of A- which should enable them to compete with the Colts for first place in the AFC South. My grade is based on how they addressed the following positions of need:

1. Quarterback: Greatest need and they landed the best guy to help them immediately. Foles is not elite, but he has proven he's a winner when he has a good supporting cast.

2. Right Tackle: Getting Taylor in the 2nd round was the biggest steal of the draft. Most had him going in the 1st half of round 1. Day 1 starter.

3. Tight end: No Hockenson, but Oliver and Swaim are a big upgrade. Most draftniks had Oliver in the 2nd wave of tight ends after the big 3. He is a very athletic guy who should eventually
                   become a safety valve for Foles.

4. Pass rusher: Josh Allen was another steal. No quarterback wants to face Yannick, Allen, Campbell and Dareus on passing downs.

5. Safety: This area was neglected other than the re-signing of Wilson. Obviously, our brass felt this wasn't a strong need. I'm not so sure about that.


Bottom line, the team did a very good job in addressing their greatest needs in the post-season. They felt safety and wide receiver will be ok going into next season without adding upgrades to 
these positions. As is the case every season, it will all come down to which teams avoid crippling injuries to their roster. It wouldn't surprise me if both the Colts and Jaguars make it to the post-season next year which is all we can ask for after such a disappointing 2018 season.

Sorry for the bad typing. Still working on that.

Good takes.

I believe we're okay at WR though I think we could have used one kin this past draft.  But with Chark having a year under his belt, with a more accurate QB operating behind a healthy offensive line, Chark should be much better.  Furthermore, Cole showed his capability his rookie year.  I think he will benefit from the same things Chark will benefit from.  Westbrook looked like a burgeoning star last year.  I'm not counting too much on Lee or Conley.  Conley has considerable physical gifts, but for whatever reason, he couldn't put it all together in KC.  Maybe Foles and DeFilippo can get more out of him.

I love what Allen adds to this defense.  I think Allen can make Calais have another productive year.

As for Wilson, I liked what little I saw, but like you, I am not quite sold on him as a starter.

I just hope we can get Telvin Smith back here and happy, and the FO happy with him, and he has a bounce back year.  He has made a lot of good plays for s over the year and, if focused, can provide very good coverage underneath.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#9
(This post was last modified: 04-30-2019, 06:23 AM by The Real Marty.)

Looking at the big picture, it looks a lot like the 2017 team with an upgraded QB.   The strength of the team is still in the defensive line and defensive backfield.  

I'm throwing out 2018 as a lost season due to a massive injury list, especially on the offensive line.  

Allen replaces Fowler, Taylor replaces Parnell.   But then the big difference is Foles replacing Bortles.  So basically, I see the 2019 Jaguars as the 2017 Jaguars with an upgraded QB.
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#10

(04-30-2019, 06:22 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Looking at the big picture, it looks a lot like the 2017 team with an upgraded QB.   The strength of the team is still in the defensive line and defensive backfield.  

I'm throwing out 2018 as a lost season due to a massive injury list, especially on the offensive line.  

Allen replaces Fowler, Taylor replaces Parnell.   But then the big difference is Foles replacing Bortles.  So basically, I see the 2019 Jaguars as the 2017 Jaguars with an upgraded QB.

Do you think Allen upgraded Fowler?

Taylor/Parnell?

I'm pretty sure we upgraded TE.

Does Filippo upgrade Hackett?  I'm not sure we didn't get worse with the coaching staff overall with the dismissals we had.  It hurt like hell to lose our OL coach and DL coach.

I would love to think we are better than that 2017 team.  If we are, watch out AFC.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#11

(04-30-2019, 07:19 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(04-30-2019, 06:22 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Looking at the big picture, it looks a lot like the 2017 team with an upgraded QB.   The strength of the team is still in the defensive line and defensive backfield.  

I'm throwing out 2018 as a lost season due to a massive injury list, especially on the offensive line.  

Allen replaces Fowler, Taylor replaces Parnell.   But then the big difference is Foles replacing Bortles.  So basically, I see the 2019 Jaguars as the 2017 Jaguars with an upgraded QB.

Do you think Allen upgraded Fowler?

Taylor/Parnell?

I'm pretty sure we upgraded TE.

Does Filippo upgrade Hackett?  I'm not sure we didn't get worse with the coaching staff overall with the dismissals we had.  It hurt like hell to lose our OL coach and DL coach.

I would love to think we are better than that 2017 team.  If we are, watch out AFC.

Allen/Fowler: consider also the tension twixt Fowler and Ngakoue (takes 2 to tango/tangle, I know) but there were issues nonetheless which are now eliminated.

Taylor/Parnell: interesting. Parnell was pretty steady and a solid guy in the LR. He was also relatively injury-free in his time here, wasn't he? If Taylor can replace all of that and provide better play at RT, then yes, it's an upgrade. It's a little bigger task there than initially meets the eye IMO.

Coaching: too many layers to this for me to make a judgement on but I'm still not sold on Marrone or Wash. I don't think DM has complete control of the team. As to the question, Deflip/Hackett, the bond between Foles and Deflip should elevate the OC position to a clear upgrade over Hack-man.
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#12

The Jags are definitely better now than in 2018 and if they play up to their potential, they can be better than 2017.

The issue is that the AFC South is so much better than in 2017. The Colts are the class of the South and then the Texans. The Jags can’t seem to beat those guys when they’re healthy. Not to mention they still can’t beat the titans for some odd reason.

I think they have done a fantastic job of adding the right pieces this off season but I think the other teams have done well too. Especially the Colts.
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#13

(04-29-2019, 05:50 PM)Upper Wrote:
(04-29-2019, 04:40 PM)Mikey Wrote: Biggest resrvation I have is that the team may not have done enough to fill out the RB ranks. If Fournette is hurt (again), we are left with a rookie, and a bunch of reserve/older guys. I have a feeling they may be scavenging through the dumpsters when teams start whittling rosters down to 53 before the season starts.

While far from world beaters, they did add Alfred Blue, Thomas Rawls, and Benny Cunningham.

If we had to start a game with any one of those guys as the primary RB, you have confidence in the run game? For the record, that bunch are the reserve/older guys in my post.
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#14

Now that the draft is over, the rosters are pretty much set going into training camp. There are still some lingering free agents out there for teams who, for whatever reason, did not fill in the holes at a particular position.


Tyreek Hill could be kicked out of the league.


Telvin Smith may or may not be on the team by the start of the season.


Players may retire before going through another training camp.


But as a whole the teams are pretty much set. Are any of you prepared to make predictions on the season, record wise or individually?


Here are some of my thoughts:


Given that DeFillippo often clashed with Mike Zimmer over not running the ball enough, and that Marrone and TC believe in pounding the rock, with run/pass balance be an issue here? I know TC and Marrone have said they want a more balanced team -ostensibly between offense and defense, but every indication from the offseason to date showed a determination to improve the balance between run and pass. They signed Foles. Until Allen fell into our laps, the draft emphasis appeared to be upgrading TE and RT in the first round. As it stands, we got the same guy at RT in the 2nd round many thought we'd take in the first, and TE seems upgraded but perhaps not to the extent it would have been had we drafted Hockenson or Fant. I think some will be pleasantly surprised over the improved passing, but this isn't going to be an air raid attack, or even the TC offense from 1996. I still think this iteration of the team will be run the ball, ball control.



Of the UDFAs, I'm thinking 2-3 have a shot of making this team. My early money is on G Bunchy Stallings, the WR from Boston College, and Savion Smith.


I'm curious as to why they brought in Corey Liuget. Not that I don't think he's had a good career. But we seem pretty set at DT, considering Campbell should see snaps there on many passing downs. Had they signed him, who would they have replaced on the roster for him? I think THIS is a classic reason why the Bortles extension hurt this team. If Bortles' cap figure were not on this team, I believe Liuget would be a Jaguar.

My game by game thoughts on the schedule...

1. KC-I think their DL, with Frank Clark acquired from Seattle, pro bowler Chris Jones moving inside to DT, and with rookie Khalen Saunders at the other DT spot, their DL will be certainly more effective against the run, but I still think their transition to the 4-3 is not complete. I still think they have weakness at LB and the secondary. Add that to the likely absence of Tyreek Hill, KC, while still a formidable team, is looking far more winnable to start the season.

2. With that defense, Houston will always be tough. But I don't see any significant upgrade in their disastrous OL. The two guys they drafted have some promise, but they reached for both players. Getting reps against studs like Watt, Clowney and Mercilus will help, but Houston could have a tough time this year-both against us and throughout their schedule.

3. I hate Thursday night games, especially when we are playing against the tacks. It never seems to go well for us. It'll be interesting to see Allen go up against those tackles. A very good test for him. Given it's a short week and we're at home

4. After being tested against the likes of Watt, Clowney and Mercilus, Landry and Casey, the Jaguars' OL gets no breaks in Dever, where Von Miller and Chubb offer an outstanding pass rush duo. As long as I can remember, Denver has always been tough at home, but I see this as a winnable game if we stay out of long yardage and don't turn the ball over. I don't see their offense having too much success against our defense, though Fant is a concern.

5. Another winnable game in Carolina. They are switching to a 3-4, which is usually a tricky transition. Though he is a great player, I wonder how much Kuechly will be impacted by having to take on guards as opposed to having DTs in front of him allowing him to move freely.

6. New Orleans is the most complete team on our schedule. But is Brees on the decline? Their offense sputtered some down the stretch last year. Glad this one is at home.

7. At Cincinnati. Bengals crowd should be pumped up for the rematch between Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Green. After this draft, the Bengals certainly have no shortage of RBs. But I don't see how the Bengals win this game.

8. Darnold will be in the middle of his second year by the time the Jets come to town. He will have Leveon Bell toting the rock, which will help some, but how much help did they give him otherwise? All but one of their draft picks were on defense, and the one guy on offense they drafted is an undersized third round pick in USC T Chuma Edoga. A likely win for us.

9. Houston-The game is in London, so hopefully the change in routine and long travel will be enough to limit their effectiveness. A tough divisional battle.

10. We match up well with Indy. Despite being in Indy, and despite Indy's improvement last year, this is another game I feel confident in winning.

11. Conversely, though I feel better about our chances against Tennessee than I did before the draft, I still don't feel confident against them at all. I wonder what the feeling in Tennessee will be about Mariota by this stage?

12. The first time we played tampa at home in 1998 stands out as one of the most exciting atmospheres ever at a Jaguars game, and the game itself was just as exciting. Good, contending teams. Big plays.
While I think we match up well with them, I do not underestimate Bruce Arians. Remember, he torched us in 2017 with Blaine freaking Gabbert.

13. In 2017, I was very concerned about facing Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. While we controlled him far better in that game than we had in past games and inexplicably won a game we should have lost, I was concerned about them last year if we met in the playoffs, and the matchup this year still concerns me.

14. At Oakland? I think we win this game, even though we suck going out west. I wonder what the atmosphere will be like there, considering it's the last game they will play in Oakland, barring the playoffs, which I don't see them making.

15. An interesting interconference game. I think Atlanta has a formidable passing game with Ryan, julio Jones, Calvin ridley and Sanu. On top of that, they added two big, physical and nasty tempered offensive linemen that many Jaguars fans coveted in Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary. Their running game should be better by this time of the year. I see this as a very tough matchup for our defense, but if any team can slow that Falcons attack down, it's us.

16. Home against the Colts to close the regular season? Chance to at least play spoiler, or catapult into the postseason with some momentum? Again, I like our chances.


Somewhere between 9-7 and 11-5 is what I see for this team assuming good health.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#15

(04-30-2019, 07:19 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(04-30-2019, 06:22 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Looking at the big picture, it looks a lot like the 2017 team with an upgraded QB.   The strength of the team is still in the defensive line and defensive backfield.  

I'm throwing out 2018 as a lost season due to a massive injury list, especially on the offensive line.  

Allen replaces Fowler, Taylor replaces Parnell.   But then the big difference is Foles replacing Bortles.  So basically, I see the 2019 Jaguars as the 2017 Jaguars with an upgraded QB.

Do you think Allen upgraded Fowler?

Taylor/Parnell?

I'm pretty sure we upgraded TE.

Does Filippo upgrade Hackett?  I'm not sure we didn't get worse with the coaching staff overall with the dismissals we had.  It hurt like hell to lose our OL coach and DL coach.

I would love to think we are better than that 2017 team.  If we are, watch out AFC.

Long term, Allen probably upgraded Fowler, and long term, Taylor probably upgraded Parnell.   But for this season, they are rookies.  I'm hoping we upgraded at TE, but rookie TEs rarely do much.  

You also have to be realistic, we have some veteran stars who might decline this year.  And we probably downgraded at FS.  On the other hand, last year's rookies hopefully take a big jump, and it is also hoped that Fournette will learn from last season and go back to what he was in 2017.  

I just think by far the biggest upgrade, and the one that could possibly push a 10-6 playoff team upward, was at QB.
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#16

(04-30-2019, 08:31 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: The Jags are definitely better now than in 2018 and if they play up to their potential, they can be better than 2017.

The issue is that the AFC South is so much better than in 2017. The Colts are the class of the South and then the Texans. The Jags can’t seem to beat those guys when they’re healthy. Not to mention they still can’t beat the titans for some odd reason.

I think they have done a fantastic job of adding the right pieces this off season but I think the other teams have done well too. Especially the Colts.

Compounding that is the  schedule rotation overall.  Games against New Orleans, Atlanta, the Chargers, and Cleveland will make matters tougher for the teams in the South.

I am not sold on what the Texans have done this offseason, but with their defense-especially their front seven- they are a tough matchup for anyone.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#17

(04-30-2019, 08:51 AM)Mikey Wrote:
(04-29-2019, 05:50 PM)Upper Wrote: While far from world beaters, they did add Alfred Blue, Thomas Rawls, and Benny Cunningham.

If we had to start a game with any one of those guys as the primary RB, you have confidence in the run game? For the record, that bunch are the reserve/older guys in my post.

If the line is blocking well it won't matter. And if it isn't its doubtful Fournette is doing much as it is
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#18

offseason evaluation from PFF - Sims and Florio:
 (video at top of Fournette blurb)

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...-the-past/
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#19

We did our best this off season and hopefully it's good enough to retain that contender status. I truly feel that some, not all of the acquisitions will help propel us to notoriety.

Time Will Tell.

NH3...
"AZANE"
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#20

We need instant super bowl caliber play from three rookies to have a shot. Our defense sans Telvin, Malik, and Gipson is still quality but has a razor thin margin for error as far as drop offs or health go. One of the major reasons 2017 worked out so well is because we had insane luck in the injury department, we're going to need that again.

I think we are probably about the same team talent wise w/ the rookie additions and veteran losses, so it'll come down to Foles. Does he improve on Blake by enough to leap the rest of the division which is much, much stronger now than in 2017?
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