(05-10-2019, 04:49 AM)Bullseye Wrote: My thoughts ion this situation...

I hope that as a person, Telvin Smith is okay.  Based upon everything we've publicly  known about Telvin Smith as a Jaguar, he's been a solid citizen for us and a good player.  Hopefully whatever issue(s) has/have turned his world asunder can be overcome by him and make him a better person.  As fans, we all have our wants for the team and our expectations for players on the team, and when someone doesn't meet those expectations, it can be easy for us to get angry at the player.  But as I always say, players are public figures, not public property.  They are more than their jersey number.  They are human beings with human weaknesses and problems.  Sadly, the contracts that so many of us seem to begrudge do not insulate them from those weaknesses or problems.  Whatever it is he's facing, I'm rooting for Telvin Smith the person to beat it, whether he actually plays another down of football for us or not.

While it's possible this is a substance abuse/dependence related issue, part of me thinks this is something else.  Even if his positive marijuana test at the combine back in '14 put him in the NFL's substance abuse program, if substance abuse were the issue, his suspension (assuming he was facing one) would only last 4 games since he hasn't been suspended since then...

• If he's suspended, going on NFI for the year won't help because the suspension would be suspended until he's ready to play. In other words, he'd be sitting out the year with intentions to play in 2020. If a 4-game suspension was handed down, then Telvin would still have to miss the first four games of the 2020 season. So, I don't think it's a suspension.
  

...If that were the case, why would he choose to sit out the whole year and lose all of that money and risk his roster spot in the future?

• Keep in mind he's not necessarily walking away from any money unless this results in him being waived. If he's sitting out the year, his base salary is suspended for the year as his yearly base salaries would all move forward a year and he'd automatically be under contract for an additional year. The team is would see the cap relief from his base salary ($9.75 mil) not counting this year as only his signing bonus hit ($2.81 mil) would count.
  

...Furthermore, were he facing suspension from the league, the team would have known about it before yesterday.  But based upon the press release, they were caught off guard by his announcement.  On the other hand, Smith had never done anything like this before, and Caldwell's ominous "we'll see" approach to Telvin being on the roster this year seemed to come out of nowhere.  If it is substance abuse/dependence and he is being proactive about getting treatment, then that speaks well to his character, in my estimation.  But the feeling I'm getting is this is something more.  While part of me thinks it unseemly to speculate the way I am, the circumstances make the speculation a very difficult temptation to resist.

• While I don't believe he's facing a suspension, if he was, the team wouldn't necessarily know. The league is very strict about not releasing suspension findings until officially announced, and that includes releasing the information to teams. Generally speakig, the only way a team knows is if the player tells them.
  

On the subject of advance notice, even assuming the Jaguars had some suspicions something was wrong before the draft, I don't think they approach the draft any differently.  I have no idea how their board was arranged, but I could not imagine the team taking any LB above Allen (who is listed in part as a LB).  Telvin's absence would not or should not have moved, say Devin Bush, above Allen.  The need at RT plus the apparent value that Taylor represented at 35 precluded a LB being taken there.  Telvin Smith's issues would not have changed those first two picks.  Smith's absence would not mitigate the need at TE either.  While ideally, Smith would have been in communication with the team and given them advance notice something was amiss with him, I can't definitively state that any pick before round five would have been any different.  Perhaps the most that would have changed is the Jaguars don't trade up from 38 to 35 and keep the 4th round pick, but again, given the need at RT and the value, I don't think anything changes.

• It's possible they somehow knew, or knew enough to presume, Telvin might not play. We don't know, for instance, if Bush would have been the pick had Josh Allen not been there, but it was very apparent that Allen was easily the top player on their board.  The Quincy Williams pick possibly speaks volumes seeing as they actually reached for a guy whose skill-set, metrics and game very much resemble Telvin's. It's hard to say that Quincy could just take over for one of the best OLBs and playmakers in the game as a 3rd round reach in the draft, but if what he did in college were to transcend to the NFL, he just might come close enough to make things work. I half suspect that had Telvin showed up to the OTAs, Will Grier would have been our late 3rd round pick.
  

While I am not a capologist, I believe the Jaguars will  take steps to obtain some cap relief from Smith's absence.   Of course the temptation is to as quickly as humanly possible, to allocate the cap savings to re-signing Yannick Ngakoue.  But unless it (Yannick's new deal) is structured very creatively, I'm not sure how Telvin's cap figure would be high enough to induce Ngakoue to sign another deal.  It seems too small to be a signing bonus.  Maybe shifting the money to him would be a show of good faith by the team, but then it sets a dangerous precedent of sorts.  Certainly every other player who needs a new contract would want the same good faith shown to them, with no guarantee they ever agree to terms with the team.

• It just might be enough to extend Ngakou. Consider that the team is about $13.75 mil under the cap. Add on $9.75 mil in savings, and suddenly the team is $23.5 mil under. That's plenty of money to work with. Heck, they could probably extend a couple key players.