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Cognitive dissonance and Expectations

#56
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2019, 09:55 PM by Bullseye.)

(09-11-2019, 12:57 AM)LMD Wrote:
(09-10-2019, 08:55 PM)Bullseye Wrote:

(Emphasis added)

Gutting talent from a 2-14 team?!?

1.  Come on, you're better than that Bullseye.

Just because the team was 2-14 doesn't mean there wasn't some talent there. The offense was horrendous overall, but the defense had a lot of NFL-caliber talent (not SB-winning talent, but at least mediocrity). Caldwell took care of that though (and somehow managed to carve out a legacy as the man who, through no fault of his own, inherited a roster worse than Matt Millen's Lions, apparently.).

With all credit to the ever-reliable wikipedia, the "Notable Departures" from 2012 - 2013 (with my edits removing the worthwhile losses, like Guy Whimper... Sick ):
Remember, Caldwell made little to no effort to re-sign most of those "declared free agents," so these weren't cases where Caldwell got outbid or anything.  



And, for completeness purposes, his draft that year:

1. Luke Joeckel
2. Jonathan Cyprien
3. Dwayne Gratz
4. Ace Sanders
5. Denard Robinson
6. Josh Evans
7. Jeremy Harris
8. Demetrius McCray

He did sign Abry Jones, Carson Tinker, and to a lesser extent LaRoy Reynolds as UDFAs though.

2.  But he also traded Eugene Monroe during the season.

Did he inherit a SB-ready team? Obviously not; don't misconstrue my argument. But I tend to agree with JagsFan06 that Caldwell removed almost every bit of mediocre NFL play from the Jags in his first off-season and generally replaced the talent with below-average talent, while stockpiling cap room. Yet now, for some reason, despite not actually winning anything, other than one year in the playoffs, Caldwell gets to reap the rewards of taking that 2013 team and turning it into the competitor that we saw in 2017, as though he had no hand in causing the 2013-and-on mess.  

3.  Caldwell chose not to pay for talent in his first years so he could play with house money for years, making big free agent splash after big free agent splash in the years after. Now that he has expectations to win, but doesn't have the endless cap room, I think you're seeing more people get frustrated with some of the moves that he used to be able to mask by just throwing the bank at a top-tier free agent. I think some of the complaints he's getting are fair (the 5th rounder for Hyde last year, given the team's refusal to use him after, being one, and now trading another 5th round draft pick this year--except this time for a 3rd string QB being a bigger example, in my opinion), though, obviously, others are not ("He should have told the coaches to coach better during the AFCCG.").

All that said, I lay most of the blame for this team on Marrone and his staff. But I am getting increasingly uneasy with the way Caldwell's managing the team with the depleted checkbook...

(Numbering added)

1.  For the purposes of this post, I do not disparage the above referenced players as a general proposition.  All (or at least most) of those players had decent to good careers overall and were assets to their respective teams while in their primes.  In fact, I point out that Caldwell himself admitted to underestimating the value of experience when he first began to shape the roster.  That said, those players at that stage in their careers were of little value to the Jaguars at that stage in the team's development.  First off, their presence on the team in 2012 did nothing to avoid a league worst 2-14 record.  While perhaps they could have been key contributors on more talent laden rosters, surrounded by sub par talent, their impact was mitigated.  At that stage of their careers, they couldn't even sensibly be considered building blocks upon which the new roster could be constructed.  Rashean Mathis was drafted in 2003 and by the time Caldwell arrived, was going into his ELEVENTH season at age 33.  There were already conversations beyond the whispering stage that Mathis was well past his prime.  Darryl Smith and Greg Jones were drafted the following year and were going into their tenth seasons, ages 31 and 32 respectively.  Dawan Landry was going into his EIGHTH year and was 31 when he left after one year with us.  Mosley was 30 by 2013.  Mincey was 30 as of 2013, while Jennings was a 28 year old RB (admittedly without a lot of mileage).  You also referenced Eugene Monroe, who was 26 years old when traded by the team in 2013.  You don't undergo a comprehensive roster rebuild while retaining players that age (26 year old Monroe excepted).  At most, retaining all of those guys would have resulted in another win or two per season, tops, while potentially lowering our draft position and missing out on guys like Ramsey, Jack, Ngakoue, Allen Robinson and Cam Robinson.   Furthermore, each and every one of those guys you listed were out of the league before the 2017 season, so it isn't as if keeping those players was the difference between us winning the AFCCG or not that year.  Their presence would not have turned those teams around, (leaving us still firmly into the "suck mightily" category), leaving us in a worse position to improve the roster through the draft, and potentially taking snaps away from younger players who could develop.

2.  Yes, Caldwell had a hand in making the roster worse before making it better.  That's typically what happens when you try to rebuild a roster that produced the worst record in the league.  When Jimmy Johnson took over Dallas, he took over a team that finished 3-13 in 1988, and finished 1-15 in 1989.  That year, he jettisoned older vets like Steve Pelleur, Randy White, traded away Herschel Walker, and phased out Ed Jones.  Without question, Johnson made the roster better after getting rid of vets who might have contributed to another win.  Now Caldwell didn't have the wild success that Johnson did, but without question, the roster now is dramatically better than it was when he took over.  He drafted/signed its first 1000 yard receivers since Smith and McCardell were brought aboard in the MID 1990s!!! He drafted  Ngakoue the team's first double digit sacker since Bobby McCray in 2004, and first truly productive DE since Brackens in 1996.  He drafted the team's first Pro Bowler at OLB in Telvin Smith since Kevin Hardy was drafted in 1996.  He drafted Jalen Ramsey the team's first Pro bowl CB since Rashean Mathis in 2003, and the teams first All Pro DB.

3.  You're blaming him for improving the roster to the point where the team has made a Super Bowl run, with several players earning post season honors, second contracts with the team, and fans wishing several other players are/were treated similarly, actually signing productive free agents like Campbell, Jackson, Bouye and Parnell, and as a result, having less cap money?  Seriously?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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RE: Cognitive dissonance and Expectations - by Bullseye - 09-11-2019, 08:24 PM



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