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London (play) Calling: Good or Bad?

#1

Given how many posters have been blaming DeFilippo's play calling for the offensive failure in London I thought I'd look at the all 22 and point out the number of missed opportunities and well defended attempts to go downfield. 

Opportunities From First Possession :

2nd Dwn - Oliver runs a deep cross 16 yards down field but just before he cuts to come open, Minshew is pressured from the RT position and dumps it to the shallow crossing Chark. 
 same drive later -

3rd and 4 -  Oliver and Conley sent deep, Cole sent beyond sticks, Chark does a quick comeback, pressure from right side behind the pocket moves Minshew forward where he throws a tough to grab ball to Fournette incomplete. 
If 15 could buy a half second longer he has Cole for the first down and big gain, or if the pass to the back is a little better it's a first down. 

This drive featured only ONE PASS PLAY that didn't feature multiple receivers running beyond the sticks and only two plays that didn't involve multiple receivers deep. Minshew can be observed trying to look to the receivers downfield but gets hurried during those plays.  This scripted first series was not conservative at all. 



Second Possession  -  synopsis of opportunities and conservative calls:

1st down Play Action Pass -
Chark and Conley go deep (post route double move and deep in), 27 and DeValve run to flats after chipping. Deep routes get good safety help and 15 checks to TE for 6 yards. NOT A DESIGNED short pass. He was looking deep and he actually looked deep too long to take advantage of the wide open TE and the LB stopped him for only 6. 

(good run by 27 - 7 yards - followed by quick pass to 27 which was poorly timed and well defended - this was the first "conservative call"  that I've really seen and it was poorly executed and well defended)

Now they call a run up the middle and it features good design and blocking except for Koyack completely ignoring a blitzing LB who stops LF for 1 yard when it could have been at least 5 or 6. BIG running lane was opened by design between C and RG. LF caught instead from behind before hitting the hole. Why Koyack helped Cam instead of picking up the guy RIGHT in front of him is a mystery to me. 

False start on 3rd and 10 hurts the drive. 

3rd and 15 - Minshew has a shot to exploit zone coverage here with Keelan Cole getting open between the LB and Safety but chooses to hit LF in space instead. Fournette dances around rather than getting north and south and it's Logan Cooke time. Not a conservative call, but a conservative decision at QB and a poor play by 27 IMO. 



3rd possession:

1st down: TE Oliver in motion from left to right leaks into flat to accept a 4 yard pass. The DB was supposed to follow Conley who was clearing out the area, but the DB doesn't bite and tackles Oliver for short gain. 
If Jags are smart they keep this in the book and fake the TE pass but go to the slant that comes open as a result of the motion TE. 

2nd down:
Designed short pass to Chark. Two other receivers effectively clear the are and Chark would have one guy to beat and had space to do it.  Pass is tipped by pass rusher.   Could have been a nice gain up the left sideline for Chark otherwise. 

3rd and 6:  Big gain but also a missed opportunity. Minshew has a pretty clean pocket but moves too far up and right when he's got lots of room to his left. Meanwhile, Chark is running free over the middle deep and Oliver is deep with some healthy cushion from the safety. Nonetheless Minshew does his thing and buys time to hit Armstead for a bug gain.

1st down: Oliver and Conley running beyond the sticks well covered - Chark and Cole run just shy of sticks. Incomplete pass to Chark. 

( 11 yard run, followed by 1 yard run)

2nd and 9:  Four receivers run beyond the sticks on curls/comebacks and LF is the checkdown. Minshew hits Conley for 12 yds and a conversion. 

1st down:  Looking for a shot to the endzone here, but Chark is doubled there and Minshew overthrows DeValve instead. Interesting note here - the TE's are crossing one another over the middle here and Koyack's route kind of screws up the timing for both of them by getting in DeValve's path. 

(27 runs left for 4 yards)

3rd and 6:  Cole, Conley and Chark all going to end zone. Play is spoiled by pressure from RT and Minshew doesn't see his outlet underneath in Armstead. Incomplete pass. 



Bottom line here is that:
* there were a small number of conservative calls but not many. Nothing unusual at all. 
*There were a couple of  conservative decisions from the QB.
*There were a couple of missed opportunities by the QB.
*There were a number of protection failures made by TEs and linemen that spoiled plays.
*There were some good plays by the defense. 

Putting the offensive woes of the Jags in the first half of that game on conservative play design or play calling doesn't make any sense to me. Especially now with this review. 
Of course we know they weren't conservative in the second half as they had to play catch up.
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#2

The 1st Int he was going for (I think) Oliver over the middle. The safety or LB chucked him as he broke and completely knocked him off the route. I don't know if the throw would've been caught because it looked like it sailed, but the TE has to push through that traffic when the throw was on time.
"It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office." - H. L. Mencken

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#3

Great great analysis NYC! I trust your judgement on this more than any other source.

On the defensive side of the game, do you think our scheme was poor or was it more Watson doing his thing?
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#4

(11-05-2019, 12:07 PM)Corriewf Wrote: Great great analysis NYC! I trust your judgement on this more than any other source.

On the defensive side of the game, do you think our scheme was poor or was it more Watson doing his thing?

Well thanks, but don't put too much trust in me! I'm no X's and O's guru. Just an armchair analyst. 


I'll have to look at the defensive struggles later when I have time. I think it's going to be a lot of Watson doing his thing and a fair amount of our DTs and LBs not getting it done vs the run / being fooled into getting out of position.
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#5

Any chance we could get a screen grab of the 3rd possession 3rd and 6 just before Minshew lowers his eyes away from Chark and begins to scramble.

I want to say this is the play where Minshew needed to stay in his throwing stance and let it rip to his first read Chark on the right side. For whatever reason he came off that read and came out of his throwing stance to scramble eventually finding Armstead.
Just want to see what the safeties were doing.
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#6

(11-05-2019, 12:44 PM)jagshype Wrote: Any chance we could get a screen grab of the 3rd possession 3rd and 6 just before Minshew lowers his eyes away from Chark and begins to scramble.

I want to say this is the play where Minshew needed to stay in his throwing stance and let it rip to his first read Chark on the right side. For whatever reason he came off that read and came out of his throwing stance to scramble eventually finding Armstead.
Just want to see what the safeties were doing.

I think he looked first to Cole at the goal line and got pressure as soon as he had a chance to even look to Chark.
 It was all improvised from there to no avail.   Only chance would have been dumping to Armstead who worked his way underneath eventually  - would have been a tough play while on the run. 

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#7

(11-05-2019, 01:06 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(11-05-2019, 12:44 PM)jagshype Wrote: Any chance we could get a screen grab of the 3rd possession 3rd and 6 just before Minshew lowers his eyes away from Chark and begins to scramble.

I want to say this is the play where Minshew needed to stay in his throwing stance and let it rip to his first read Chark on the right side. For whatever reason he came off that read and came out of his throwing stance to scramble eventually finding Armstead.
Just want to see what the safeties were doing.

I think he looked first to Cole at the goal line and got pressure as soon as he had a chance to even look to Chark.
 It was all improvised from there to no avail.   Only chance would have been dumping to Armstead who worked his way underneath eventually  - would have been a tough play while on the run. 

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Ah was thinking of a different play
Thanks nonetheless
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#8

I honestly don't know what the play calls were, because Minshew held the ball so long, that he had to check down on almost every play.
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#9
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2019, 01:44 PM by SeldomRite.)

Thanks for taking the time to compile this, NYC. After some thought about the game I started thinking the biggest problem Sunday was Westbrook's absence.
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#10

(11-05-2019, 10:56 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: Given how many posters have been blaming DeFilippo's play calling for the offensive failure in London I thought I'd look at the all 22 and point out the number of missed opportunities and well defended attempts to go downfield. 

Opportunities From First Possession :

2nd Dwn - Oliver runs a deep cross 16 yards down field but just before he cuts to come open, Minshew is pressured from the RT position and dumps it to the shallow crossing Chark. 
 same drive later -

3rd and 4 -  Oliver and Conley sent deep, Cole sent beyond sticks, Chark does a quick comeback, pressure from right side behind the pocket moves Minshew forward where he throws a tough to grab ball to Fournette incomplete. 
If 15 could buy a half second longer he has Cole for the first down and big gain, or if the pass to the back is a little better it's a first down. 

This drive featured only ONE PASS PLAY that didn't feature multiple receivers running beyond the sticks and only two plays that didn't involve multiple receivers deep. Minshew can be observed trying to look to the receivers downfield but gets hurried during those plays.  This scripted first series was not conservative at all. 



Second Possession  -  synopsis of opportunities and conservative calls:

1st down Play Action Pass -
Chark and Conley go deep (post route double move and deep in), 27 and DeValve run to flats after chipping. Deep routes get good safety help and 15 checks to TE for 6 yards. NOT A DESIGNED short pass. He was looking deep and he actually looked deep too long to take advantage of the wide open TE and the LB stopped him for only 6. 

(good run by 27 - 7 yards - followed by quick pass to 27 which was poorly timed and well defended - this was the first "conservative call"  that I've really seen and it was poorly executed and well defended)

Now they call a run up the middle and it features good design and blocking except for Koyack completely ignoring a blitzing LB who stops LF for 1 yard when it could have been at least 5 or 6. BIG running lane was opened by design between C and RG. LF caught instead from behind before hitting the hole. Why Koyack helped Cam instead of picking up the guy RIGHT in front of him is a mystery to me. 

False start on 3rd and 10 hurts the drive. 

3rd and 15 - Minshew has a shot to exploit zone coverage here with Keelan Cole getting open between the LB and Safety but chooses to hit LF in space instead. Fournette dances around rather than getting north and south and it's Logan Cooke time. Not a conservative call, but a conservative decision at QB and a poor play by 27 IMO. 



3rd possession:

1st down: TE Oliver in motion from left to right leaks into flat to accept a 4 yard pass. The DB was supposed to follow Conley who was clearing out the area, but the DB doesn't bite and tackles Oliver for short gain. 
If Jags are smart they keep this in the book and fake the TE pass but go to the slant that comes open as a result of the motion TE. 

2nd down:
Designed short pass to Chark. Two other receivers effectively clear the are and Chark would have one guy to beat and had space to do it.  Pass is tipped by pass rusher.   Could have been a nice gain up the left sideline for Chark otherwise. 

3rd and 6:  Big gain but also a missed opportunity. Minshew has a pretty clean pocket but moves too far up and right when he's got lots of room to his left. Meanwhile, Chark is running free over the middle deep and Oliver is deep with some healthy cushion from the safety. Nonetheless Minshew does his thing and buys time to hit Armstead for a bug gain.

1st down: Oliver and Conley running beyond the sticks well covered - Chark and Cole run just shy of sticks. Incomplete pass to Chark. 

( 11 yard run, followed by 1 yard run)

2nd and 9:  Four receivers run beyond the sticks on curls/comebacks and LF is the checkdown. Minshew hits Conley for 12 yds and a conversion. 

1st down:  Looking for a shot to the endzone here, but Chark is doubled there and Minshew overthrows DeValve instead. Interesting note here - the TE's are crossing one another over the middle here and Koyack's route kind of screws up the timing for both of them by getting in DeValve's path. 

(27 runs left for 4 yards)

3rd and 6:  Cole, Conley and Chark all going to end zone. Play is spoiled by pressure from RT and Minshew doesn't see his outlet underneath in Armstead. Incomplete pass. 



Bottom line here is that:
* there were a small number of conservative calls but not many. Nothing unusual at all. 
*There were a couple of  conservative decisions from the QB.
*There were a couple of missed opportunities by the QB.
*There were a number of protection failures made by TEs and linemen that spoiled plays.
*There were some good plays by the defense


Putting the offensive woes of the Jags in the first half of that game on conservative play design or play calling doesn't make any sense to me. Especially now with this review. 
Of course we know they weren't conservative in the second half as they had to play catch up.

Very well put. This is exactly the problem. It's not ONE thing like Minshew, it's on one play Minshew missed a guy, on that play the RG got beat. Its how we turn 2nd and 8 into 3rd and 7. Those are the plays that never got going.

On one hand I think that stuff is fixable, on the other I'm thinking we will always find a way to screw a play up.
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#11

(11-05-2019, 01:44 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: Thanks for taking the time to compile this, NYC. After some thought about the game I started thinking the biggest problem Sunday was Westbrook's absence.

I've been thinking about this. Chark has had a great year but Dede seems to be Minshews security blanket if you know what I mean. Houston took away Chark, Cole had an ok day, 5 for 80yds I think, and Conley had some drops but the pass game didn't seem to have Houston reacting to it.

They did a good job making Minshew hold the ball, and he got a bit too locked on receivers and was waiting for them to get open which they wanted him to do but I think we had 40yds rushing from Fournette. He didn't get a lot of help.
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#12

(11-05-2019, 01:36 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I honestly don't know what the play calls were, because Minshew held the ball so long, that he had to check down on almost every play.

1st possession:  One checkdown due to pressure
2nd possession:  1 due to coverage, 1 checkdown because he doesn't try for Cole downfield, not sure why
3rd possession:  1 improvised checkdown for 1st down - should have thrown downfield prior

So that's 4 checkdowns in three possessions - half of which were on him. 
Definitely not "almost every play" in that first half at least.
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#13
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2019, 02:44 PM by Talented Kalamari.)

Interesting analysis.. however, just because you’ve proven that maybe the play calls weren’t as conservative as we may have thought, that still doesn’t mean that they were good playcalls. In my opinion I don’t believe that Flip called many plays that played to minshews strength. Would have liked to see more designed bootlegs and rollouts to get him moving around.
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#14

(11-05-2019, 02:44 PM)Talented Kalamari Wrote: Interesting analysis.. however, just because you’ve proven that maybe the play calls weren’t as conservative as we may have thought, that still doesn’t mean that they were good playcalls. In my opinion I don’t believe that Flip called many plays that played to minshews strength. Would have liked to see more designed bootlegs and rollouts to get him moving around.

This playbook has very, very little of that stuff in it because it was designed for a pocket passer that doesn't really do that stuff. 

When the backup is forced to start they can't just change the whole playbook. 
They tweak it a bit and use what works best for the backup that the rest of the offense spent the offseason learning with someone else behind center. 

The rookie QB had several opportunities to go deep in the first half of this ballgame and they were either well covered, spoiled by pressure, or simply not executed by the QB.
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#15

(11-05-2019, 02:44 PM)Talented Kalamari Wrote: Interesting analysis.. however, just because you’ve proven that maybe the play calls weren’t as conservative as we may have thought, that still doesn’t mean that they were good playcalls. In my opinion I don’t believe that Flip called many plays that played to minshews strength. Would have liked to see more designed bootlegs and rollouts to get him moving around.

That kind of stuff is fine... occasionally.  Do it often in the NFL and you will have another QB injured.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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#16

Minshew is a rookie. There are going to be times when his pre-snap post-snap reads dont match and sometimes he hesitates cutting it loose. Th that's part of being a rookie. He's way ahead of most rookies, but u can't substitute starting experience.

Foles has more experience and that's going to lead to more efficiency in the short term because he's going to be fooled less. 18 months from now? Minshew could be ready to be THE GUY but he's still in need of some seasoning.
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#17

I think most of the problems were they were trying to protect the OL too much. Missing Westbrook hurt, but they needed to expand the field and kill them with quick passing if they were going to blitz. The routes didn't have enough combinations to get WRs open underneath, so they were able to cover the deeper routes and then that just left the hot routes.

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#18

(11-05-2019, 09:19 PM)jj82284 Wrote: Minshew is a rookie.  There are going to be times when his pre-snap post-snap reads dont match and sometimes he hesitates cutting it loose.  Th that's part of being a rookie.  He's way ahead of most rookies, but u can't substitute starting experience.  

Foles has more experience and that's going to lead to more efficiency in the short term because he's going to be fooled less.  18 months from now?  Minshew could be ready to be THE GUY but he's still in need of some seasoning.

The bolded accounts for a pretty big number of passing downs we've seen in weeks 6-9. 
Great point.
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#19

The Jaguars are currently last in the league in playaction attempts.

Only 43 playaction pass attempts despite Minshew having these stays while doing it : 33/43 76.7% completion rate 534 yards 3 TDs 0 picks, 141 passer rating(!)
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#20

(11-06-2019, 12:08 PM)JackCity Wrote: The Jaguars are currently last in the league in playaction attempts.

Only 43 playaction pass attempts despite Minshew having these stats while doing it : 33/43 76.7% completion rate  534 yards 3 TDs 0 picks, 141 passer rating(!)

They should do it more. Many of us have said it for 5 weeks now. I'd have liked them to double the number of 1st and 2nd down play action passes with Minshew. 

That's one aspect of the offense I agree they could be more aggressive about. (that and some of the run-play design)

The general amount of actual play-calls with receivers being looked to well beyond the sticks however, is not conservative after all, which was the point of the thread.
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