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Poll: What to do with AJ Bouye?
Keep Bouye around
Release him and draft a CB early
Try to restructure
Corn
Blank #2
[Show Results]
 
 
AJ Bouye, Farewell?

#1

I've been speculating for two years now that Bouye could become a cap casualty and it's never seemed more imminent than it does right now.  And now his contract has reached a place where they'd save 11 million by releasing him.

How do you play this if you're the GM?
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#2

I've seen a few people saying hes probably gone this off season. Yes hes not playing great and is probably getting overpaid but hes also our best DB and most experienced by far.

I want him to stay, I want us to add more experience but we put ourselves in a hole with Bortles dead money which hurt adding depth and with Foles, we seem to be in the same spot again. 

Breaks my heart seeing the DB position go from what we had in 2017 to 4 completely different guys. We only needed to replace Church!
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#3

We gotta do what we gotta do to make the cap work...
I gotta think we won't know how to make this move until post draft.... If Brown and Thomas are gone at 9 and Okudah is available Or if Diggs is picked at 20, I'd feel OK cutting AJ and rocking with Herndon and a rookie for a season.

But if we don't get a first round talent at CB I just don't see us going into 2020 with Herndon and a 2nd or 3rd round rookie...
Maybe we could get a guy in free agency that is cheaper... but I wouldn't feel great about that being an unknown either.
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#4
(This post was last modified: Yesterday, 03:34 PM by Talented Kalamari.)

(Yesterday, 03:16 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: I've seen a few people saying hes probably gone this off season. Yes hes not playing great and is probably getting overpaid but hes also our best DB and most experienced by far.

I want him to stay, I want us to add more experience but we put ourselves in a hole with Bortles dead money which hurt adding depth and with Foles, we seem to be in the same spot again. 

Breaks my heart seeing the DB position go from what we had in 2017 to 4 completely different guys. We only needed to replace Church!

Bro you are dumb if you think he’s worth $11M.... adios
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#5

Try to restructure, if not go young early.
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#6

And replace him with who? Herndon's a dime corner, Hayden is really solid at nickel but washed out on the outside. If you keep Bouye, you need one starter. If you cut him, you need two, and any corner better than Bouye on the FA market is going to cost more than Bouye does.




"Let's throw something at it."
-Me

"Only one way to find out."
-Also me

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#7

(Yesterday, 03:33 PM)Talented Kalamari Wrote:
(Yesterday, 03:16 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: I've seen a few people saying hes probably gone this off season. Yes hes not playing great and is probably getting overpaid but hes also our best DB and most experienced by far.

I want him to stay, I want us to add more experience but we put ourselves in a hole with Bortles dead money which hurt adding depth and with Foles, we seem to be in the same spot again. 

Breaks my heart seeing the DB position go from what we had in 2017 to 4 completely different guys. We only needed to replace Church!

Bro you are dumb if you think he’s worth $11M.... adios

I did say hes not playing well and would be overpaid. Actually hes earning '$15.5m next year, $11m would be our savings. 

I have no issue with paying our best CB that much from a $208m salary cap. And when we are paying Norwell  $16m, Lee $9m, it's not like we're being super smart with our contracts.

We can save cap making cuts elsewhere, if letting Bouye go would help address other issues and we go CB at #9 then it may work out but I'm tired of just releasing our better guys as we can save cap to try and bring in 2 less talented guys. 

That's just diminishing returns.
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#8

(Yesterday, 03:43 PM)Hard_Eight Wrote: Try to restructure, if not go young early.

This sounds all fine and dandy... but I feel like we're saying it a lot this offseason "maybe this guy will restructure"

Usually guys do that for teams that they want to be on because they are winning and they'll sacrifice a little ched to chase a ring.
We're not even close, so I'm not sure Campbell or Bouye will want to restructure. Nor am I sure that Dareus will want to resign on a cheaper deal.

If they're going to take less $ they can go to KC, Tenn, Houston, GB, Minny, Nola, etc after being released.
We gave out these hefty contracts, not sure they're trying to do us any favors.
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#9

(Yesterday, 03:50 PM)TJBender Wrote: And replace him with who? Herndon's a dime corner, Hayden is really solid at nickel but washed out on the outside. If you keep Bouye, you need one starter. If you cut him, you need two, and any corner better than Bouye on the FA market is going to cost more than Bouye does.

Word on the street (twitter and local radio) is that the team likes Herndon at CB2 but will likely give him competition even if it's not an early pick or top tier FA. 

The projection if they release Bouye is :

CB1 -  Early Pick
CB2 - Herndon or mid tier FA
Nickel - DJ Hayden 

(Many expect them to add competition at FS for Wilson and roll with Harrison at SS)
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#10

You have to keep him. To many other positions need help.
Looking to troll? Don't bother, we supply our own.

 

 
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#11
(This post was last modified: Yesterday, 04:24 PM by Kane.)

(Yesterday, 04:08 PM)Jagwired Wrote: You have to keep him. To many other positions need help.

This is what I'm thinking.... we can't cut everyone (AJ, Calais, Dareus, Lee, Norwell) and trot out a JV squad next year full of rookies and cheap free agents... too reminiscent of 2013

We gotta trim excess fat this year (Dareus, Calais maybe, Lee) and probably trim the rest next year
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#12

(Yesterday, 03:50 PM)TJBender Wrote: And replace him with who? Herndon's a dime corner, Hayden is really solid at nickel but washed out on the outside. If you keep Bouye, you need one starter. If you cut him, you need two, and any corner better than Bouye on the FA market is going to cost more than Bouye does.

He’s not worth $11M. Not even close. You can find a corner in FA or the draft for 1/4 of the cost who plays just as well. I love AJ, but he’s showing signs of age on the outside, he’s not as good as he used to be. Dave signed these guys to backloaded contracts because he knew they would ultimately become cap casualties. It’s time to move on, and we will.
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#13

(Yesterday, 04:32 PM)Talented Kalamari Wrote:
(Yesterday, 03:50 PM)TJBender Wrote: And replace him with who? Herndon's a dime corner, Hayden is really solid at nickel but washed out on the outside. If you keep Bouye, you need one starter. If you cut him, you need two, and any corner better than Bouye on the FA market is going to cost more than Bouye does.

He’s not worth $11M. Not even close. You can find a corner in FA or the draft for 1/4 of the cost who plays just as well. I love AJ, but he’s showing signs of age on the outside, he’s not as good as he used to be. Dave signed these guys to backloaded contracts because he knew they would ultimately become cap casualties. It’s time to move on, and we will.

But Tom and Dave haven't drafted very well in order to replace these guys.

You will not find a cheaper option in FA that plays as well as AJ Bouye. Perhaps you can find a younger guy for similar money, but you won't be saving money, and you'll be kicking the can down the road.
Yeah there are 2-3 DBs that as rookies probably can come in and give you similar production or better on a rookie contract, but what position suffers because of it? NT? OL?

I don't think cutting Bouye is as simple of a decision as you'd like it to be.
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#14

(Yesterday, 04:32 PM)Talented Kalamari Wrote:
(Yesterday, 03:50 PM)TJBender Wrote: And replace him with who? Herndon's a dime corner, Hayden is really solid at nickel but washed out on the outside. If you keep Bouye, you need one starter. If you cut him, you need two, and any corner better than Bouye on the FA market is going to cost more than Bouye does.

He’s not worth $11M. Not even close. 


His cap hit is 15.4 million, not 11.
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#15

(Yesterday, 04:23 PM)Kane Wrote:
(Yesterday, 04:08 PM)Jagwired Wrote: You have to keep him. To many other positions need help.

This is what I'm thinking.... we can't cut everyone (AJ, Calais, Dareus, Lee, Norwell) and trot out a JV squad next year full of rookies and cheap free agents... too reminiscent of 2013

We gotta trim excess fat this year (Dareus, Calais maybe, Lee) and probably trim the rest next year

This is where I am. The young guys really struggled this year and to give them all the responsibility while adding more youth and inexperience just seems a recipe for disaster.

The coaches have been complaining that they need better players, I just dont see the route of cutting all the salary fat as the way to do that.
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#16

(Yesterday, 04:32 PM)Talented Kalamari Wrote:
(Yesterday, 03:50 PM)TJBender Wrote: And replace him with who? Herndon's a dime corner, Hayden is really solid at nickel but washed out on the outside. If you keep Bouye, you need one starter. If you cut him, you need two, and any corner better than Bouye on the FA market is going to cost more than Bouye does.

He’s not worth $11M. Not even close. You can find a corner in FA or the draft for 1/4 of the cost who plays just as well. I love AJ, but he’s showing signs of age on the outside, he’s not as good as he used to be. Dave signed these guys to backloaded contracts because he knew they would ultimately become cap casualties. It’s time to move on, and we will.

You're not going to find a starting corner in free agency for $3M/yr, period. You're going to struggle even finding a solid nickel at that price. It's not ideal, but unless the plan is to go full-on tank mode, cutting Bouye and rolling with Herndon and a rookie is not a recipe for success.




"Let's throw something at it."
-Me

"Only one way to find out."
-Also me

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#17

(Yesterday, 04:42 PM)JagFan81 Wrote:
(Yesterday, 04:23 PM)Kane Wrote: This is what I'm thinking.... we can't cut everyone (AJ, Calais, Dareus, Lee, Norwell) and trot out a JV squad next year full of rookies and cheap free agents... too reminiscent of 2013

We gotta trim excess fat this year (Dareus, Calais maybe, Lee) and probably trim the rest next year

This is where I am. The young guys really struggled this year and to give them all the responsibility while adding more youth and inexperience just seems a recipe for disaster.

The coaches have been complaining that they need better players, I just dont see the route of cutting all the salary fat as the way to do that.

Using Spotrac I cut Dareus, Lee, Swaim, Jake Ryan, Abry Jones, and traded Foles.
Which would give us 42m in cap space. Most of those cuts are guys we're not relying on at all for the coming season (this assuming we draft a NT early enough to plug into the DL)
Perhaps Campbell restructures which would free up some more... perhaps he is cut too (15m in savings...)


Not a cap expert but I'd like to think 45-50m in cap space allows us to do what we need to to keep Yan or at least tag him and get our draft guys signed and then reasses the cap situation after 2020

This means guys like Norwell, Conley, and Bouye don't have to be cut and would be less dead money if cut next year when we have another draft and FA period to add talent to actually replace these guys.
Can't replace them all in one draft and if you draft their replacement beyond the 2nd round, expecting them to be day 1 starters is a tall task for most.
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#18

(Yesterday, 03:51 PM)Kane Wrote: Nor am I sure that Dareus will want to resign on a cheaper deal.

This is the one restructure I really want to see. I think the Jaguars would offer more to tack a year or two onto the deal than he'd get in FA.

(Yesterday, 03:55 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(Yesterday, 03:50 PM)TJBender Wrote: And replace him with who? Herndon's a dime corner, Hayden is really solid at nickel but washed out on the outside. If you keep Bouye, you need one starter. If you cut him, you need two, and any corner better than Bouye on the FA market is going to cost more than Bouye does.

Word on the street (twitter and local radio) is that the team likes Herndon at CB2 but will likely give him competition even if it's not an early pick or top tier FA. 

The projection if they release Bouye is :

CB1 -  Early Pick
CB2 - Herndon or mid tier FA
Nickel - DJ Hayden 

(Many expect them to add competition at FS for Wilson and roll with Harrison at SS)

Wilson is awful, so, yeah, good. Harrison's got potential and looked really good at times and lost at others, but he really wasn't getting much help from the corners after Ramsey [BLEEP] his way out.

I still don't like Herndon. He got burned more often than Freddy Krueger last year, and I'm not sure if the staff really believes in him or if he's just a cheap stopgap while they draft multiple corners this year and see who survives. Bouye to a rookie would be a drop. Herndon to a rookie might not be.




"Let's throw something at it."
-Me

"Only one way to find out."
-Also me

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#19

I think some may be overvaluing Bouye's current level of performance.

In 2017 he had 6 INTs and 18 passes defensed.

In 2019 it was 1 INT and 8 passes defensed (66 DBs had more passes defensed in 2019)

He also allowed a 65.2% completion rate when targeted in 2019.
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#20
(This post was last modified: Yesterday, 05:04 PM by Kane.)

(Yesterday, 04:54 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: I think some may be overvaluing Bouye's current level of performance.

In 2017 he had 6 INTs and 18 passes defensed.

In 2019 it was 1 INT and 8 passes defensed (66 DBs had more passes defensed in 2019)

He also allowed a 65.2% completion rate when targeted in 2019.

I think we all know his play slipped (or is slipping) it's the fact that you can't just cut everyone.
And it's relevant to how the draft falls (cuts don't have to be made until june 1st iirc) so if the draft goes in such a way we can get Okudah or Diggs, yeah Bouye is expendable.
But if not... You want Herndon and a guy like Bryce Hall as our starting CBs next year? 

Also.... in 2017 Bouye got more targets (thus more passes defensed and intercepted) due to who was opposite of him
This year, Herndon got more targets after the Ramsey debacle.... Now giving up 65% isn't good... I don't think anyone is saying he's so good we gotta keep him but the plan was to have Ramsey here, and we could cut Bouye and draft a #2... we no longer have that luxury.

(just saw that Bouye rec'd the same amount of targets in 2017 as 2019, so I got that wrong... but my general perception on the roster remains unchanged)
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