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Dave's Second Round Strategy

#1
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2020, 07:55 PM by Bullseye.)

Given the Jaguars lack of success, it comes as no surprise that a majority of Jaguars fans wanted the team to clean house, including Dave Caldwell.  Most of his detractors point to the overall record and the number of first round misses as the reasoning for wanting him out.  While I am among those few who do NOT want him out, I readily concede he is not without his flaws.  He committed two of the cardinal sins of a GM-missing on his head coach and missing on his highly drafted QB.  I would also add in the inability to acquire a stud OL and the inability to retain key players as legitimate criticisms.  Some have lamented his reluctance/refusal to trade down as a reason to bash him.  That said, I do believe he has his merits.  Contrary to popular belief, he has not been completely dependent upon highly drafted players to build the team.  He has proven over time he can find contributors in the mid to late draft with Yannick Ngakoue, Linder and Telvin Smith as examples.  However, one critical aspect of his stewardship has escaped scrutiny-or at least discussion- on the boards:  his second round strategy.

As I have mentioned above, Caldwell has not traded back in the draft to accumulate picks very often.  In fact, I can only recall him trading away our seventh round pick last year in exchange for Seattle's 6th round pick this year as an example of Caldwell trading down in a draft.  But Caldwell has not traded up in the first round to go after a player he has targeted.  He has let the draft fall to him and it has worked for him at the top of recent drafts.  In 2016, he sat at 5 and wound up with Jalen Ramsey.  Last year, he stood pat at 7 and inexplicably wound up with Josh Allen.  However, history has demonstrated considerably less reticence in trading up in the second round.

In 2014, he traded up into the bottom of the 2nd round to acquire WR Allen Robinson.  2016 saw Caldwell trade up in the second round to draft LB Myles Jack.  The very next year, Caldwell again traded up in the second round in an attempt to solidify LT with Cam Robinson.  Finally last year, the Jaguars traded up again in the second round to draft RT Jawaan Taylor.  A look back on the board shows the trades and subsequent players drafted were overwhelmingly applauded by those on the board.  I can scarcely recall anyone panning the picks at the time.  The most I can recall was last year's drafting of Taylor, most of which focused on him not being worth a top ten pick in the first round.  I recall one poster who wanted Ford from Oklahoma (who was also acquired via a trade up, IIRC.  But nobody really panned the trades up in the second round, though historically, this board has been averse to trading up as a general proposition.

However, the resulting players drafted with the improved draft position has yielded mixed results.  Acquiring Allen Robinson gave the Jaguars their first 1000 yard WR since Jimmy Smith some ten years earlier.  But the team could not convince him to stay after 2017, and he left for Chicago as a free agent.  The Myles Jack pick was lauded by the board, and Baltimore was slated to draft him had the Jaguars not traded up above them.  He has stayed healthy, added a healthy amount of athleticism to the LB corps, and the team felt good enough about him to grant him a second contract.  However, he got little playing time in 2016, played at SAM in 2017 (which typically reduced his playing time), inherited the Mike position upon Poz's retirement, and has been less than consistent since moving there.  Cam Robinson started at LT his rookie year and instantly provided improvement to the position being part of a line that allowed the fewest sacks on any Jaguars OL over a single season.  Yet people point out he was one of the lowest rated LTs in that year, and his level of play subsequent to that has decreased, to the point where many fans would be happy with the Jaguars drafting his replacement at 9 this year.  Finally, Jawaan Taylor showed promise to some last year, but to me he struggled mightily.

This leads me to wonder about the soundness and efficacy of the strategy of trading up in the second round.  On the one hand, I like the Jaguars being aggressive in acquiring talent, especially to players who fall into the second round.  The prospect of getting a bargain with a first round grade in the second round is certainly appealing.  Trading up in the second round as opposed to the first is a way of mitigating the cost associated with such a move.  However, with the players acquired not having the desired impact, it's natureal to have second thoughts.  Coupled with Caldwell's proven ability to find contributors in later rounds, there is also an argument that the potential contribution of players found in later round picks that were traded away to move up in the second actually does not mitigate the cost of moving up, but actually inflates the cost beyond the point of prudence.

So what do you guys think?  Given the circumstances involved, is trading up in the second a sound strategy or not?  Is it a matter of a sound strategy botched by the poor execution of drafting the "wrong" players?  Does the fact a second round pick, statistically speaking, has a low percentage of becoming a quality starter in any way influence your position?  Looking back to those trades, given the needs of the team and the players selected, would you do them again and pick the same players, do it again abd pick different players?  If so, who would you have picked instead and why?  Or would you not trade up at all, risk missing out on what you may consider to be a second round bargain, and keep the later mid round pick?  If this is your choice, if you are among those who do not trust Caldwell to properly evaluate talent, why would keeping the pick have been more beneficial the team? than trading up?  Is there a player in this draft for whom you would be willing to trade up to draft if he somehow fell to the second round (realistically)?
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#2
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2020, 08:02 PM by anonymous2112.)

How are you doing, Bullseye? Glad to see your post.



On Topic, I'm a big fan of the second round, and the Jags have historically done a great job with 2nd rounders. I'm a fan of trading down from #20 and getting a couple more 2nd rounders.
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#3
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2020, 08:23 PM by Bullseye.)

(02-12-2020, 07:58 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: How are you doing, Bullseye?

Thank you for asking.

I am doing better, but not out of the woods yet.

When I announced my retirement, I was literally days from going blind.  (insert Police Academy reference here) Undoubtedly, many of you reading this would say that would explain a lot of my football takes.   Laughing  For perspective, I am using a 37" flat screen as my monitor, and the day I posted that message, I could not see well enough to type the message without the use of a magnifying glass.  Naturally, not knowing whether or not I would be able to see in the future, I figured I would post while I still could and announce me absence.  How could I comment on games I could not see, much less see well enough to type my thoughts on it?

Since then, thanks to my docs, my vision in my right eye has improved, my left eye stabilized with obstructed vision.  I have laser and physical surgeries to come, with improvement in my left eye in my future. 

My eyesight restored to functionality if not perfection, the docs have yet to devise a treatment for football withdrawal.  Given the eventful past three months or so since I left, here I am.

Now enough about me and my medical condition.  I'd love to hear the collective's thoughts about the OP.

Quote:On Topic, I'm a big fan of the second round, and the Jags have historically done a great job with 2nd rounders. I'm a fan of trading down from #20 and getting a couple more 2nd rounders.


I have been considering that too, especially if Kinlaw, Ruggs, Higgins and Henderson are all off the board.

But what of trading up in the 2nd?

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#4

I'm not against the idea of trading up in the 2nd, but that's just if the right player is falling. Like you pointed out, Caldwell somehow landed Ramsey at 5 and Allen at 7, so if something like that happened, it would be awesome. DJ Chark falling to 61 in 2018? Not bad.

As for last years trade up to grab Taylor, I was all for it. Hasn't worked out as a home run yet, but I loved the value. If a top 20 value is there in the second, I trust Caldwell's judgement. I'm probably one of the few to do so, but after a 6th round Minshew last year when he could've grabbed Will Grier in the 5th, I'm gonna give him benefit of the doubt.

So yeah, nothing definitive yet. Depends on who falls.
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#5

(02-12-2020, 08:56 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: I'm not against the idea of trading up in the 2nd, but that's just if the right player is falling.  Like you pointed out, Caldwell somehow landed Ramsey at 5 and Allen at 7, so if something like that happened, it would be awesome.  DJ Chark falling to 61 in 2018?  Not bad.

As for last years trade up to grab Taylor, I was all for it.  Hasn't worked out as a home run yet, but I loved the value.  If a top 20 value is there in the second, I trust Caldwell's judgement.  I'm probably one of the few to do so, but after a 6th round Minshew last year when he could've grabbed Will Grier in the 5th, I'm gonna give him benefit of the doubt.

So yeah, nothing definitive yet.  Depends on who falls.

So your willingness to trade up depends on who falls out of round 1?

Hypothetical.  Suppose the first round generally goes as predicted, with all of the guys expected/projected to go in the first round actually go in the first round.  Woould you trade up in round 2?  If so, under what circumstances?
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#6

(02-12-2020, 08:56 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: I'm not against the idea of trading up in the 2nd, but that's just if the right player is falling.  Like you pointed out, Caldwell somehow landed Ramsey at 5 and Allen at 7, so if something like that happened, it would be awesome.  DJ Chark falling to 61 in 2018?  Not bad.

As for last years trade up to grab Taylor, I was all for it.  Hasn't worked out as a home run yet, but I loved the value.  If a top 20 value is there in the second, I trust Caldwell's judgement.  I'm probably one of the few to do so, but after a 6th round Minshew last year when he could've grabbed Will Grier in the 5th, I'm gonna give him benefit of the doubt.

So yeah, nothing definitive yet.  Depends on who falls.

Grier went in the 3rd
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#7
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2020, 09:30 PM by anonymous2112.)

If Kinlaw or Henderson are on the board, and they are still considered high picks in a couple months, it might be worth moving a few picks to lock one in.

I've seen Henderson mocked as far back as 56. We pick at 42, and top of 2nd round is 33. We'd only be moving 9 spots, worst case scenario, unless we're talking trading 3rd and later picks to get back into the 2nd somewhere south of 42. I don't have anyone targeted right now, so I couldn't say who I'd try moving to, say, pick 55 for.

(02-12-2020, 09:27 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-12-2020, 08:56 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: I'm not against the idea of trading up in the 2nd, but that's just if the right player is falling.  Like you pointed out, Caldwell somehow landed Ramsey at 5 and Allen at 7, so if something like that happened, it would be awesome.  DJ Chark falling to 61 in 2018?  Not bad.

As for last years trade up to grab Taylor, I was all for it.  Hasn't worked out as a home run yet, but I loved the value.  If a top 20 value is there in the second, I trust Caldwell's judgement.  I'm probably one of the few to do so, but after a 6th round Minshew last year when he could've grabbed Will Grier in the 5th, I'm gonna give him benefit of the doubt.

So yeah, nothing definitive yet.  Depends on who falls.

Grier went in the 3rd

See, I'd have done even worse...
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#8

It depends on who falls for me as we. If a guy falls to the top of the 2nd and we had a mid 1st round grade on a position of need I would do it. I'm sure we had at least a mid 1st grade on Taylor and Jack
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#9

I pretty much agree with your take on Caldwell. 

Other than maybe Linder, who quickly leveled off once Marrone became OL coach, I have seen no improvement of OL draft picks or free agent acquisitions. Most have declined, even all-pro Norwell. To me that's a problem with coaching, not the draft. If I'm right, then trading up to draft Cam Robinson and Taylor were smart draft moves that were ruined by the coaching staff. Marrone in particular, as a former OL coach, should get the blame whether or not he had a hand in (mis)developing them.

Miles Jack is a WLB who has always played out of position, so it's hard to give an accurate evaluation on whether or not he's worth the trade up. An argument could be made that he shouldn't have been the pick given the lack of need at WLB with Telvin Smith entrenched. Jack was a highly regarded top half of the 1st round prospect who dropped only because of a concern about his knee. So far his knee has not been the reason for his disappointing play.

The Allen Robinson pick was clearly right. I'm not sure who gets the blame for his leaving. Probably it was partly the uncertainty after his injury, coupled with the tight cap space and maybe Coughlin's bad chemistry with the players, or even not wanting to be on the receiving end from Bortles (although Trubisky isn't any better).

So yeah, I think trading up in the second round is a sound strategy, at least as it has been done under Caldwell so far with good value in the trades, slot-wise.



                                                                          

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#10

I'd of traded of for Metcal last year when he fell to the bottom of the 2nd.
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#11

I tend to think the extra 1st round pick will eliminate need/desire to trade up later.

Haven’t always been thrilled about the trade ups, but most were fairly inexpensive.

I am thrilled to see a Bullseye thread, however!!
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#12

Doesn't this depend on how you grade a draft? As in do you just judge the players you selected and their results, or include the players who were missed?

Also, the risk of the draft is how much your coaches can develop a guy and have him fit your scheme. How much blame falls to Caldwell for players who flashed but hated their coaches or regressed?
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#13
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2020, 11:04 PM by Last42min.)

Hire Shaq Harris. He can only contribute to the second round pick.
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#14

(02-12-2020, 09:31 PM)MalabarJag Wrote: I pretty much agree with your take on Caldwell. 

Other than maybe Linder, who quickly leveled off once Marrone became OL coach, I have seen no improvement of OL draft picks or free agent acquisitions. Most have declined, even all-pro Norwell. To me that's a problem with coaching, not the draft. If I'm right, then trading up to draft Cam Robinson and Taylor were smart draft moves that were ruined by the coaching staff. Marrone in particular, as a former OL coach, should get the blame whether or not he had a hand in (mis)developing them.

Miles Jack is a WLB who has always played out of position, so it's hard to give an accurate evaluation on whether or not he's worth the trade up. An argument could be made that he shouldn't have been the pick given the lack of need at WLB with Telvin Smith entrenched. Jack was a highly regarded top half of the 1st round prospect who dropped only because of a concern about his knee. So far his knee has not been the reason for his disappointing play.

The Allen Robinson pick was clearly right. I'm not sure who gets the blame for his leaving. Probably it was partly the uncertainty after his injury, coupled with the tight cap space and maybe Coughlin's bad chemistry with the players, or even not wanting to be on the receiving end from Bortles (although Trubisky isn't any better).

So yeah, I think trading up in the second round is a sound strategy, at least as it has been done under Caldwell so far with good value in the trades, slot-wise.
Your take on the coaching is fully consistent with your prior assessments of Jaguars coaching, and is even more intriguing in this context.  I am not sold that coaching may have hindered the development of Linder or the rest of the OL.  The year before he arrived, the Jaguars allowed 71 sacks.  Marrone came aboard in 2015 and the team allowed 51 sacks, twenty fewer than the year before..  The next year, the sacks allowed dropped by 1/3 down to 34 sacks allowed. By 2017, the Marrone coached OL allowed 24 sacks.  I am not sure how the OL as a whole can show that dramatic improvement over three years if the individuals on that line were not being developed properly during that time. Now I can buy the argument that the development may have plateaued/peaked, but that happens with all players at some point and I am unsure if blame can be assigned to Marrone during that time.  However, I was NOT fond of Jawaan Taylor's development under Warhop.  I preferred the old OL coach (I can't recall his name). 

I think we pretty much see eye to eye everywhere else.
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#15

(02-12-2020, 09:50 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: I tend to think the extra 1st round pick will eliminate need/desire to trade up later.

Haven’t always been thrilled about the trade ups, but most were fairly inexpensive.

I am thrilled to see a Bullseye thread, however!!

Good point about the extra first round pick.  That didn't factor into my deliberation for the purposes of this discussion, though it presumes that after that #20 pick is chosen, no other scheme fit player with a first round grade falls into the second round.  But absolutely it could serve to mitigate that itch to trade up in round 2. 

I'm thrilled to post another thread and you guys are willing to read & participate.
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#16
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2020, 11:44 PM by Bullseye.)

(02-12-2020, 10:56 PM)rpr52121 Wrote: Doesn't this depend on how you grade a draft? As in do you just judge the players you selected and their results, or include the players who were missed?

Also, the risk of the draft is how much your coaches can develop a guy and have him fit your scheme. How much blame falls to Caldwell for players who flashed but hated their coaches or regressed?

As for your first question, I would pose it back to you?  Does trading up in round two depend upon how you grade a draft?  I definitely think so, though it would not be a total shock to see someone against trading up in any circumstance.  In the case of a particularly shallow draft, or one in which there are maybe 25 or so players that carry a true first round grade and picks 26-60 are all graded equally, I think there would be less incentive to trade up in round 2 as a general proposition.  But even that depends upon whether there is a particular player or position you are targeting with that second round pick, and the needs of the teams ahead of you in the draft order, and the teams reasonably close behind you with similar needs.  In this past draft, there were about 3-4 tackles that were discussed throughout the offseason as potential first round picks that fell to the second, and there were 2-3 teams that traded up in the second to get them.  This followed a first round that saw Philadelphia jump ahead of Houston to draft a T coveted by Houston, who wound up reaching for Tytus Howard, and then later wound up trading for Miami's Laremy Tunsil.  There is always competition for good players.

As to your closing question, I'm not sure what, if any blame should fall to a GM under those circumstances.  If Caldwell believes in a player, but doesn't believe in the position coach to develop the player he values, should he NOT draft the player he covets?  If he identifies the position coach as a problem, does he bring that up to the head coach?  Coaches have been known to be loyal to their assistants, and have been known to quit because ownership or management mandated change in the coaching staff.  If the discussion results in a head coaching change, there are invariable scheme changes that come along with it, and with those changes are possible paradigm shifts on the types of player to fit that scheme.  That would take some adjustment and a ton of communication.

(02-12-2020, 11:01 PM)Last42min Wrote: Hire Shaq Harris. He can only contribute to the second round pick.

He had a knack for those second rounders, didn't he?  Almost as if he needed a round to "warm up."

(02-12-2020, 09:32 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: I'd of traded of for Metcal last year when he fell to the bottom of the 2nd.

I started calling for that as Metcalf fell.
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#17

My simplified response is that the entire draft is a gamble. People like to post that blah blah player is a sure thing, but no one is. Even Burrow is a gamble. Hindsight is always 20/20. You play the percentages and don’t look back when the percentage played in the houses favor.

Successful people don’t let past failures dictate their future success. If your guy drops to 2nd and won’t be there when you pick, trade up.
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#18

(02-13-2020, 12:29 AM)Corriewf Wrote: My simplified response is that the entire draft is a gamble. People like to post that blah blah player is a sure thing, but no one is. Even Burrow is a gamble. Hindsight is always 20/20. You play the percentages and don’t look back when the percentage played in the houses favor.

Successful people don’t let past failures dictate their future success. If your guy drops to 2nd and won’t be there when you pick, trade up.

Succinctly put,

My main caveat to the whole trade up in the 2nd thing is to not give up a future first round pick to do so, like the Skins and Chargers often did under Beathard.
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#19

(02-12-2020, 11:17 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(02-12-2020, 09:31 PM)MalabarJag Wrote: I pretty much agree with your take on Caldwell. 

Other than maybe Linder, who quickly leveled off once Marrone became OL coach, I have seen no improvement of OL draft picks or free agent acquisitions. Most have declined, even all-pro Norwell. To me that's a problem with coaching, not the draft. If I'm right, then trading up to draft Cam Robinson and Taylor were smart draft moves that were ruined by the coaching staff. Marrone in particular, as a former OL coach, should get the blame whether or not he had a hand in (mis)developing them.

Miles Jack is a WLB who has always played out of position, so it's hard to give an accurate evaluation on whether or not he's worth the trade up. An argument could be made that he shouldn't have been the pick given the lack of need at WLB with Telvin Smith entrenched. Jack was a highly regarded top half of the 1st round prospect who dropped only because of a concern about his knee. So far his knee has not been the reason for his disappointing play.

The Allen Robinson pick was clearly right. I'm not sure who gets the blame for his leaving. Probably it was partly the uncertainty after his injury, coupled with the tight cap space and maybe Coughlin's bad chemistry with the players, or even not wanting to be on the receiving end from Bortles (although Trubisky isn't any better).

So yeah, I think trading up in the second round is a sound strategy, at least as it has been done under Caldwell so far with good value in the trades, slot-wise.
Your take on the coaching is fully consistent with your prior assessments of Jaguars coaching, and is even more intriguing in this context.  I am not sold that coaching may have hindered the development of Linder or the rest of the OL.  The year before he arrived, the Jaguars allowed 71 sacks.  Marrone came aboard in 2015 and the team allowed 51 sacks, twenty fewer than the year before..  The next year, the sacks allowed dropped by 1/3 down to 34 sacks allowed. By 2017, the Marrone coached OL allowed 24 sacks.  I am not sure how the OL as a whole can show that dramatic improvement over three years if the individuals on that line were not being developed properly during that time. Now I can buy the argument that the development may have plateaued/peaked, but that happens with all players at some point and I am unsure if blame can be assigned to Marrone during that time.  However, I was NOT fond of Jawaan Taylor's development under Warhop.  I preferred the old OL coach (I can't recall his name). 

I think we pretty much see eye to eye everywhere else.

There were upgrades to the OL in both 2015 (Parnell, Cann, Wisnewski) and 2016 (Beachum, Linder back from injury, Beadles cut). In 2017 Marrone was no longer the OL coach, he was the head coach, and Fournette had a lot to do with the drop in sacks that year, probably more than Robinson replacing Beachum.

Robinson's best year was his rookie year. Same with Cann. Linder is really the only draft pick on the OL who might have improved at all after his rookie year, and his improvement hasn't been significant. IIRC, he was one of the top graded guards by PFF in 2014.


Maybe the hiring of Warhop was Marrone admitting that his predecessor (I can't recall the old coach's name either) wasn't doing a good job. I have heard that the Bucs fans hated Warhop. We can only hope they were wrong. I remember reading an article with Taylor saying he's learned a lot from Warhop, and that his play has improved over the year. If that's true he still has a lot of room for improvement.



                                                                          

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#20

The best our line during this era has been was 2017 when Pat Flaherty took charge, he has long a track record of making lines into good units. Then in 2018 everyone was injured and he was scapegoated albeit there was likely personality clashes involved as Pat isn't the tamest soul around and he was let go in a matter of months by the Dolphins just last year.

Warhop has been a pretty unimpressive offensive line coach and multiple stops but was hired because he's friends with Doug and Doug rates his ability to develop players. He was quite poor last year imo, even with Taylor developing as the season went on
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