(02-28-2020, 10:55 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: It's funny how every year people always think this guy or that guy wont be there lol.  Every year it happens lol.  Got Jawan Taylor in the 2nd when a lot of talking heads said we were going to take him in the 1st.  Dillard went 22.  We got Josh Allen at 7.   I'd say it's better than a 50/50 chance one of the top 5 tackles will be there at 20

I agree completely with you here.

Every year, players drop further than expected.

I remember pre draft discussions where nobody thought John Henderson would be there on the board when we picked, but he was.  The year before, people were shocked that RT Kenyatta Walker would be on the board when we picked. 

Allen, Taylor, and Jack all were expected to be long gone when our picks arrived.

It's not just for us, either.  Warren Sapp was supposed to be a top 5 pick in 1995.  Randy Moss and Emmitt Smith were supposed to be top 5-10 talents.  Both were available in the late teams and early 20s in their respective drafts.

Are there "chalk" picks every year?  Sure.  That's the nature of player evaluation.

But based upon team needs, the available draft pools, etc., players you don't expect to drop will drop.

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