If I were a GM, these would be my guidelines.

1. Separate into tiers all players with rounds 1-2 grades. This connects BAP with NEED to increase the likelihood of selecting immediate starters.
   
2. If picking in the top half of round 1, target only premium spots -- QB, LT, DE, all-around DT, or CB -- unless a surefire elite non-premium-position player falls (e.g., Calvin Johnson)
   
3. Rounds 1-2 caveat (stolen from another poster): If a massively higher-rated player falls (like Allen last year), you pick him regardless of NEED. 
   
4. For rounds 3-4, go pure BAP: graciously receive the gifts of players you have graded much higher who fall into your lap.
   
5. For rounds 5-7, swing for the fence. Seek boom/bust projects with high upside, players who fell because of injury (e.g., Colvin), and players who fell because of character concerns (e.g., Westbrook). 
   
6. Always be looking for potential starters in each round, even in 5-7. Never "mail it in" by viewing the last rounds as the place to shore up special teams or add camp competition even if that's statistically likely the case. 
   
7. Always entertain trade-down offers to amass more picks. That's your base instinct. Trade up only for a blue-chip QB prospect or surefire generational talent at a premium position of glaring NEED. 
   

Non-premium-position rules:

1. Avoid drafting limited, obvious sub-package players. They can be found in free agency or among undrafted free agency. For example, smallish nickel-only corners should be avoided because failed outside guys can be moved inside (e.g., Hayden, Dennard). This complements rule #6 above.  
   
2. Special teams is not built through the draft. Therefore, never draft a kicker/punter/one-dimensional returnman, etc. If you're lacking a gunner/returnman/kicker/punter, sign one in free agency or undrafted free agency. 
   
3. De-value G in rounds 1-2. Only draft projected 10-year starters/Pro Bowlers. Failed tackles can be moved guard. 
   
4. De-value C in rounds 1-2. Only draft projected 10-year starters/Pro Bowlers. Failed guards can be moved to center.
   
5. De-value TE in rounds 1-2. Only draft projected 10-year starters/Pro Bowlers. Many take most of their rookie contract to develop. Sign a proven vet if one's not on the roster and fill in the rest of the TE group with developmental guys, hoping one will emerge. 
   
6. De-value SS in rounds 1-3. A necessary but non-premium position.
   
7. De-value ILB in rounds 1-3. A necessary but non-premium position.  
   

QB rules:

1. If your starting QB is Mahomes/Rogers in his prime, don't draft a QB in the first two rounds, even developmentally. Your Super Bowl window is wide open and you're probably drafting late because of your stellar QB play; therefore, surround your franchise guy with weapons. If a blue-chip QB prospect falls to you, try to trade out and net additional picks.  
   
2. If your starting QB is not top 10 or clearly ascending to the top 10 (either subpar, inconsistent, or declining), draft a QB in the first two rounds every draft until you get it right. If you don't like the top QB prospects or you're simply not in range to draft them without mortgaging the future, bring in strong veteran competition (e.g., Nick Foles to compete/supplant Trubisky). 
   
3. Final QB rule: Bradys and Minshews are rare. Don't draft backup QBs. Proven serviceable backups are fairly bountiful in free agency, and several former starters fall from grace every year (e.g., Bortles, Mariota). If a developmental QB falls in rounds 3-7, only draft him if you think he's a potential starter one day - i.e., you see some elite traits that everyone else is blind to for some reason. 
   

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"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

Wow this is a great detailed list that you’ve put up. I agree with it all. Especially the QB bits. I’d add One important thing. History.

1. If someone has a track record of doing something over the course of their young lifetime, they’re likely to repeat it. Brady was a 6th round pick sure, but he won in College, and was a huge competitor that didn’t change once he was in the NFL. People don’t tend to change.
Background check like crazy, get an idea of who this person is, not just how talented they are.

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I agree with almost everything in the OP, except maybe this one:

"Failed tackles can be moved guard."

I'm not sure about that. Maybe some examples of failed tackles being successfully moved to guard could help me with that one. I just think tackles and guards are different. Different body types, different skill sets.

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1. Develop your grading system for prospects well enough that you trust it.

2. If the highest graded player available is redundant on your roster look to similarly rated prospects that you need.

3. You will know if any of those players are a reach as a opposed to a "value decision" because you trust your grading system. You can set a limit as to how much grade to sacrifice to find value, but it should be obvious.

4. Don't reach (QB is often an outlier to this rule when you need one unfortunately - most GMs reach for them)

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Interesting list. I think I’m all about value. When I see a player falling in the draft, I’m jumping on them. (Josh Allen, Myles Jack) but the main aspect of being a good drafter is being fluid. Being able to change your mindset quickly. It’s not a direct correlation but this is how I draft in fantasy football as well. If you go in dead set on certain players and positions, you’ve already failed.

I heard an interesting nugget yesterday on Sirius. One analysts believes a lot of GMs are going totally against their natural thought process. He thinks you’ll see high character guys go much higher this year due to the uncertainty of other players. GMs can’t meet with players this year so they don’t want to take gambles. On the flip side, highly skilled players but with some questions will fall much much further in the draft so you’ll see 5t 6th and even 7th rounders with great skill sets drafted.

This was only one mans opinion (old Jets GM) but I found it interesting. GMs going safer this year more than ever completely changes the dynamics of this draft. Going to be super interesting.

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I agree with almost everything in the OP, except maybe this one:

"Failed tackles can be moved guard."

I'm not sure about that.  Maybe some examples of failed tackles being successfully moved to guard could help me with that one.  I just think tackles and guards are different.  Different body types, different skill sets.

There are dozens of examples out there. 

Joe Bitonio, Kelechi Osemele, T.J. Lang all played tackle before guard and a good number of the best guard prospects in each year's draft had at least a year at tackle in college if not more. 

Certainly there are guys that don't have the coordination to make the switch, but many do. From a draft perspective, you'll want to know which prospects project to be flexible.

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I saw someone post this rule for their draft rankings a while ago and it really resonated with me:

In the early rounds, if you are looking at an oline or dline and their first bullet on the scouting report is run blocking or run stopping...just move on. If you're looking at WR and the first bullet on the scouting report is contested catch ability...just move on.

Pass blocking, disrupting the passer, and creating separation are the premier skills in the NFL right now.

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I saw someone post this rule for their draft rankings a while ago and it really resonated with me:

In the early rounds, if you are looking at an oline or dline and their first bullet on the scouting report is run blocking or run stopping...just move on. If you're looking at WR and the first bullet on the scouting report is contested catch ability...just move on.

Pass blocking, disrupting the passer, and creating separation are the premier skills in the NFL right now.

You dont want a bunch of one trick ponies and your team would be full of them.

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I saw someone post this rule for their draft rankings a while ago and it really resonated with me:

In the early rounds, if you are looking at an oline or dline and their first bullet on the scouting report is run blocking or run stopping...just move on. If you're looking at WR and the first bullet on the scouting report is contested catch ability...just move on.

Pass blocking, disrupting the passer, and creating separation are the premier skills in the NFL right now.

I'll have to add that to my guidelines.

This is why I'm now souring on Derrick Brown in the top 10. He might be a one-trick pony. How does he compare to Marcel Dareus coming out of college? Was Dareus known primarily as a run-stuffer with only a bull-rush? I think Dareus took a little while to develop in the pros. I don't want that in the top 10, unless it's a QB. I want a plug and play starter. I don't want to be a farm system for other teams to nab my guys after they've been arduously trained for four years. If another team nabs my guys, I want to at least be able to say we got four solid years out of them on a rookie contract. 

For now, if I'm Caldwell I take Wirfs or Becton (unless Okudah falls) and move on. Wirfs has the lowest risk. Let him compete at LT; if he can't beat out Cam move him to RG his rookie year. Becton is a risk only because his weight needs to be monitored. Assign him a dietitian to nag him everyday and make him do weigh-ins to gain permission to practice.

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"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

I saw someone post this rule for their draft rankings a while ago and it really resonated with me:

In the early rounds, if you are looking at an oline or dline and their first bullet on the scouting report is run blocking or run stopping...just move on. If you're looking at WR and the first bullet on the scouting report is contested catch ability...just move on.

Pass blocking, disrupting the passer, and creating separation are the premier skills in the NFL right now.

You dont want a bunch of one trick ponies and your team would be full of them.

You just draft those guys later. When you get an elite pick you need to use it on a guy who excels in one of the coveted skills, aka not run blocking or run stopping. If they can do that too then that's great but if that's what they hang their hat on then you goofed.

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I saw someone post this rule for their draft rankings a while ago and it really resonated with me:

In the early rounds, if you are looking at an oline or dline and their first bullet on the scouting report is run blocking or run stopping...just move on. If you're looking at WR and the first bullet on the scouting report is contested catch ability...just move on.

Pass blocking, disrupting the passer, and creating separation are the premier skills in the NFL right now.

I'll have to add that to my guidelines.

This is why I'm now souring on Derrick Brown in the top 10. He might be a one-trick pony. How does he compare to Marcel Dareus coming out of college? Was Dareus known primarily as a run-stuffer with only a bull-rush? I think Dareus took a little while to develop in the pros. I don't want that in the top 10, unless it's a QB. I want a plug and play starter. I don't want to be a farm system for other teams to nab my guys after they've been arduously trained for four years. If another team nabs my guys, I want to at least be able to say we got four solid years out of them on a rookie contract. 

For now, if I'm Caldwell I take Wirfs or Becton (unless Okudah falls) and move on. Wirfs has the lowest risk. Let him compete at LT; if he can't beat out Cam move him to RG his rookie year. Becton is a risk only because his weight needs to be monitored. Assign him a dietitian to nag him everyday and make him do weigh-ins to gain permission to practice.

Wirfs has the lowest risk at what position? If you are talking about the lowest risk at LT I dont see how you can say that when he has played like 3 games at LT. Thomas has been an All American the last 2 years in the best conference and a unanimous this past years. Id say he is easily the safest pick if you want a LT and not even close

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You dont want a bunch of one trick ponies and your team would be full of them.

You just draft those guys later. When you get an elite pick you need to use it on a guy who excels in one of the coveted skills, aka not run blocking or run stopping. If they can do that too then that's great but if that's what they hang their hat on then you goofed.

Most of those one trick ponies always fail to live up to their draft positon because defenses or offenses know what they need to keen in on.  When you have a guy that is well rounded and can beat you in multiple ways it is much harder to stop and those guys more often than not live up to there drafting or over achieve

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Great post!

All seems well thought out.

Might disagree a bit about what constitutes premium positions tho. Will post about it when I have time later.

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I'll have to add that to my guidelines.

This is why I'm now souring on Derrick Brown in the top 10. He might be a one-trick pony. How does he compare to Marcel Dareus coming out of college? Was Dareus known primarily as a run-stuffer with only a bull-rush? I think Dareus took a little while to develop in the pros. I don't want that in the top 10, unless it's a QB. I want a plug and play starter. I don't want to be a farm system for other teams to nab my guys after they've been arduously trained for four years. If another team nabs my guys, I want to at least be able to say we got four solid years out of them on a rookie contract. 

For now, if I'm Caldwell I take Wirfs or Becton (unless Okudah falls) and move on. Wirfs has the lowest risk. Let him compete at LT; if he can't beat out Cam move him to RG his rookie year. Becton is a risk only because his weight needs to be monitored. Assign him a dietitian to nag him everyday and make him do weigh-ins to gain permission to practice.

Wirfs has the lowest risk at what position?  If you are talking about the lowest risk at LT I dont see how you can say that when he has played like 3 games at LT.  Thomas has been an All American the last 2 years in the best conference and a unanimous this past years.  Id say he is easily the safest pick if you want a LT and not even close

I'm warming up to Thomas after I read an analysis of him. I think he's a clear notch above Cam coming out of college. In terms of value, I'd love to see a team trade up for Jordan Love so the Jags could slide back a few spots and still grab Thomas, Wirfs, or Becton. That would be my dream.

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"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

1) Don't fall in love with any single player, unless you have Rd1 Pick1 in your pocket.
2) Consider depth of position when determining value/grade. If the class is weak at TE, you may have to sacrifice value if you wish to come out of the darft with a talented TE. If the class is deep, passing on a player now may be able to find similar talent later in the draft.
3) BAP/Need is a venn diagram. Aim for the spot where best available overlaps with need and value at the pick.
4) Be prepared. Someone in front of you will make a headscratcher of a pick, or a run will start at a position. Be ready, be flexible.
5) Trust your board.

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If I were a GM, these would be my guidelines.

1. Separate into tiers all players with rounds 1-2 grades. This connects BAP with NEED to increase the likelihood of selecting immediate starters.
   
2. If picking in the top half of round 1, target only premium spots -- QB, LT, DE, all-around DT, or CB -- unless a surefire elite non-premium-position player falls (e.g., Calvin Johnson)
   
3. Rounds 1-2 caveat (stolen from another poster): If a massively higher-rated player falls (like Allen last year), you pick him regardless of NEED. 
   
4. For rounds 3-4, go pure BAP: graciously receive the gifts of players you have graded much higher who fall into your lap.
   
5. For rounds 5-7, swing for the fence. Seek boom/bust projects with high upside, players who fell because of injury (e.g., Colvin), and players who fell because of character concerns (e.g., Westbrook). 
   
6. Always be looking for potential starters in each round, even in 5-7. Never "mail it in" by viewing the last rounds as the place to shore up special teams or add camp competition even if that's statistically likely the case. 
   
7. Always entertain trade-down offers to amass more picks. That's your base instinct. Trade up only for a blue-chip QB prospect or surefire generational talent at a premium position of glaring NEED. 
   

Massively agree with all your points, especially continuing to look for high-potential starters in the later rounds that carry risk. You can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket. It'll be especially interesting to see if, as another poster suggested, GMs are much more wary on 'risk' players this year due to the lack of contact... Could be some guys falling that represent real boom/bust potential.

Also, I agree on the trading down front. Ultimately, draft pick success evens out across most teams... Even the teams that are generally perceived as good drafters have a massive amount of misses (Pats, Steelers). Having extra picks each year simply increases your potential of hitting on one of them. An argument could be made that, despite having 12 picks, the Jags shouldn't be looking to trade up and instead stay put, pick 12 players, and let the odds work in their favour.

One thing I would add, and I know full well that many will disagree, is that WR should also be considered a premium position that can be drafted at the top of the first round. Obviously, that only applies to truly elite prospects. I just feel that in today's NFL, the way to win is increasingly with a dynamic passing offense. Getting an elite talent at WR can be a massive advantage to that end. (Cue multiple posters bringing up the Titans and 49ers last year... I still stand by my point that in today's NFL, and even more so in tomorrow's NFL, the best way to consistently win is with a strong passing game).

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One thing I would add, and I know full well that many will disagree, is that WR should also be considered a premium position that can be drafted at the top of the first round. Obviously, that only applies to truly elite prospects. I just feel that in today's NFL, the way to win is increasingly with a dynamic passing offense. Getting an elite talent at WR can be a massive advantage to that end. (Cue multiple posters bringing up the Titans and 49ers last year... I still stand by my point that in today's NFL, and even more so in tomorrow's NFL, the best way to consistently win is with a strong passing game).

With regard to this, I won't necessarily cite the tacks (come on, man!) or niners, but I will say that it takes a verrrrrrrry special prospect to warrant a top of the first pick. Very often the class is so deep that either you can get similar guys later in the first, or early in the second (look at our last two hits at WR). Someone like Andre Johnson, Megatron, Larry Fitz, sure. Elite talent, capable of completely changing the dynamics of an offense. There have been a LOT of flops though with early WR picks when teams either drafted for need more than value, or misdiagnosed a player's ability. Troy Williamson, Reggie Williams come to mind immediately.

So a lot of times a WR not going until 15 is not as much a knock on that player, as it is a sign that either other positions are harder to find similar quality of play, or teams don't see the position as such a great need as to take the guy earlier.

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One thing I would add, and I know full well that many will disagree, is that WR should also be considered a premium position that can be drafted at the top of the first round. Obviously, that only applies to truly elite prospects. I just feel that in today's NFL, the way to win is increasingly with a dynamic passing offense. Getting an elite talent at WR can be a massive advantage to that end. (Cue multiple posters bringing up the Titans and 49ers last year... I still stand by my point that in today's NFL, and even more so in tomorrow's NFL, the best way to consistently win is with a strong passing game).

With regard to this, I won't necessarily cite the tacks (come on, man!) or niners, but I will say that it takes a verrrrrrrry special prospect to warrant a top of the first pick. Very often the class is so deep that either you can get similar guys later in the first, or early in the second (look at our last two hits at WR). Someone like Andre Johnson, Megatron, Larry Fitz, sure. Elite talent, capable of completely changing the dynamics of an offense. There have been a LOT of flops though with early WR picks when teams either drafted for need more than value, or misdiagnosed a player's ability. Troy Williamson, Reggie Williams come to mind immediately.

So a lot of times a WR not going until 15 is not as much a knock on that player, as it is a sign that either other positions are harder to find similar quality of play, or teams don't see the position as such a great need as to take the guy earlier.

Williams and Williamson were obvious reaches at the time, John Ross another example.

I agree with you though, it does need to be close to guaranteed that the player is gonna be elite to take one that early...

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