(05-27-2020, 06:30 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: (05-26-2020, 05:18 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: For any of you that are buying this "Gruden's offense was bad in 2019, and Minshew struggled after the saints game, so the jags offense will suck in 2020" nonsense:
Two QBs have had success in Gruden's system. Dalton and Cousins.
Dalton had seasons under Gruden that went 9-7, 10-6, and 11-5.
Cousins had three seasons that produced 4000+ yards and 25+ TDs under Gruden.
If you compare the rookie seasons of Dalton, Cousins and Minshew, then you'll find that Minshew performed better as a rookie with:- higher completion percentage
- more touchdowns
- fewer interceptions
- better QBR
- higher adjusted YPA
- higher yards per game
I think a Gruden playbook tailored to suit Minshew will make for better offensive production than the Jags 2019 output regardless of any tape teams have on Minshew now.
I guess I'm burned out with going down this path every single offseason; optimism that our new OC will make this offense great again. I mean, didn't we just have the OC/QB coach that made Foles great again in Philly and then coach Cousins (Vikings). We just don't have the talent on offense for "anybody" to make this anything more than a 20th ranked or less offense. We have no team speed on O. Couple that with the fact that I really don't see any creativity with Gruden's past offenses (e.g. going 4 wide, etc.) so I think we're set up to see a lot of what we saw last season --- prediction 27th ranked in Points For and 30th ranked in Points Allowed. Not sure which teams could be worse so I may be a bit optimistic with my prediction.
It should be noted Gruden had 3 pro bowl players on that 2012 team with the Bengals (Green WR, Gresham TE, and Whitworth LT). Whitworth, who was drafted in 2006, actually made 3 more pro bowls a few years after Gruden left.
There's certainly no guarantee that it gets better just because it's better "on paper" as we like to say.
I'll not argue that, nor will I deny the precedent we've set for pessimism.
We've set the table the past two years to expect struggles.
The only rebuttal I'll give you to this post is that we do have speedy receivers by league standards.
Westbrook, Chark and Conley are all considered "fast" and they've shown it quite a few times even if we've been largely bad at taking advantage of it most of the time.
(Chark 4.34 forty time - Conley - 4.35 - Westbrook - 4.34)
Beyond that - the reasons why I'm optimistic include:
- Minshew is in year 2 after what is considered a very promising rookie year
- It's Minshew's offense, designed for him, and he'll have a full offseason to fine tune it to HIS skillset, not someone else's like his rookie year.
- One thing Gruden did more consistently than OC's we've seen here in recent years is force mismatches on opponents by moving guys around. He did it with Desean Jackson and Jordan Reed to great success at times. Moving them around in formations until he found Jackson vs a DB that couldn't keep up and Reed vs a LB.
- Gruden has guys on this roster in Chark, Conley, Oliver, Eifert and maybe Shenault that can be similar types of chess pieces to create mismatches with size and/or speed.
- Gruden has steered a more creative tack with his running backs usage than every other OC we've had under Marrone thus far. Hackett started to do some good things w/ Grant and Fournette but went away from it. Flip got #27 involved in the pass game but ultimately ran him up the gut on early downs too often with no attempt to disguise intention. Gruden has shown usage of his TE's as H-Backs lead blocking and receiving out of the backfield, he's shown willingness to put two RBs on the field simultaneously - sometimes with one of them lined up in the slot - sometimes both in the backfield. He should shake up the run game monotony.
Reasons I'm less optimistic:
- The O-line hasn't been addressed to my satisfaction and Minshew did not have enough time in the pocket consistently last year. Hopefully a fourth round D3 rookie supplants Cann and Cam takes a step removed from injury. Meh. Not too hopeful.
- Every OC under Marrone seems to bend to his "we're gonna run it down your throat and we dare you to stop it" philosophy. I'm completely over that [BLEEP]. Gruden had better have the freedom to implement his own run game philosophy.
- Minshew's development in the pocket and ability to see lanes. He is limited by his stature when throwing from between the tackles and Gruden will need to address this with play design and drills to aide his sightlines to receivers. He does have a tendency to want to rollout a beat too prematurely at times instead of getting through his progression quickly and getting the ball out from the pocket on time. Protection would help this, but some of it falls on #15.
