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Change in Trade Dynamic?

#1

Never did I think a blowout loss could be such a breath and a breath of fresh air, but that's exactly what happened today with our loss to the Ravens and the Jets win over the Rams, because with those events, the Jaguars are now slated to have the top overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Assuming this holds true, the question goes from what do we do with the 2nd overall pick, to what do we do with our second first round pick and other picks?

Do you...

1.  Stand pat with our pick in the mid 20s and just take the best players on the board for the remainder of the draft?

2.  Package some picks and try to trade up to get a player you covet but would not be available to you at that point in the draft?  If so, who would you target, and how much would you be willing to move to get that player?

3.  Would you move down from 26?  Is there a position of need for the Jaguars where the draft depth is sufficient in 2nd through 4th rounds?  How many starters do you think we could realistically get in this draft class?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#2
(This post was last modified: 12-20-2020, 11:00 PM by Cleatwood.)

If Pitts or an elite tackle are falling (think Wirfs Wills Becton last year), I think I try to trade up.

But honestly, I think I stand pat. Take the FA money and go after OLine. If the Jags get Lawerence, they need to protect him at all costs. Taylor and Robinson are scrubs.
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#3

If we land Lawrence, I'm loading up on offensive lineman. Haven't looked at prospects outside of QB so not sure if its loaded at OL or not. Regardless I'd be hesitant to trade up with the rams pick unless you identify a great lineman, preferably tackle, that is worth moving up for. Id like to keep as many picks as possible.


________________________________________________
Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.
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#4

If we remain at #1, we absolutely take Lawrence.

As for the other picks, we stay where we are slotted and take the BAP - as we have to address many deficiencies at many positions. I'd be ok with trading around once we get in the later rounds like Rd.5 and onward.

Lawrence + o-line, d-line, corner, safety, TE - and I'm a happy camper. I think we will see starters emerge pretty deep into the draft - especially with our draft capital.

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#5

(12-20-2020, 10:59 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: If Pitts or an elite tackle are falling (think Wirfs Wills Becton last year), I think I try to trade up.

But honestly, I think I stand pat. Take the FA money and go after OLine. If the Jags get Lawerence, they need to protect him at all costs. Taylor and Robinson are scrubs.

I think my answer may hinge on whether the Jets win another game or not.  As I observed in another thread, if we and the Jets lose out, we'll have the top overall pick, but the Jets would have the top pick in every other round, while we'd have the second pick in every other round.  But if the Jets managed one more win this year, then we'd have the top pick in every round, and have the opportunity to stockpile more mid round picks.

With the high demand that usually accompanies the top pick on day 2, I might be more inclined to try to make a major move up to get another top tier talent from 26, because we could recoup some of the draft capital spent to get that top talent by trading back from that top pick in the second round.  But then again, a new GM may be inclined to accumulate as many picks as possible-or at least keep the ones they have.

I haven't studied OL much, but based upon many of the mocks I've seen, it seems there are tackles like Cosmi, the kid from Notre Dame or Leatherwood that might be available in the mid to late first that could be there with our picks from the Rams.  But how good are they?  I've seen Bama and Notre Dame this year, but haven't really studied those guys yet.  There seems a huge drop from Pitts to the other TEs.  I'm kind of torn on this point.  Pitts is a good prospect who would pose all kinds of matchup problems.  But good GMS have been able to find good TEs in the 3rd round.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#6
(This post was last modified: 12-20-2020, 11:33 PM by Bullseye.)

(12-20-2020, 10:59 PM)rfc17 Wrote: If we land Lawrence, I'm loading up on offensive lineman. Haven't looked at prospects outside of QB so not sure if its loaded at OL or not. Regardless I'd be hesitant to trade up with the rams pick unless you identify a great lineman, preferably tackle, that is worth moving up for. Id like to keep as many picks as possible.

I posed this question in part of my greed for a LT to protect Lawrence's blind side, though as I think more of it, if the Jets end up with the 2nd overall pick, there is no way Sewell ends up dropping past the Jets at two or Cincy at three.  Though LT is one of the most important positions, I am left to wonder that even if the Jets or Bengals were interested in trading out of those positions when they have the chance for Sewell, whether it would be worth it to trade up to get him.  I might be convinced to trade our 26 and next year's first overall with another pick or two inducement to get Sewell.

(12-20-2020, 11:03 PM)enigma Wrote: If we remain at #1, we absolutely take Lawrence.

As for the other picks, we stay where we are slotted and take the BAP - as we have to address many deficiencies at many positions. I'd be ok with trading around once we get in the later rounds like Rd.5 and onward.

Lawrence + o-line, d-line, corner, safety, TE - and I'm a happy camper. I think we will see starters emerge pretty deep into the draft - especially with our draft capital.

You specifically mentioned deficiencies.

What if there is a stud WR on the board?

While you did not mention WR as a deficiency, I submit we are not quite as secure in that position as it may seem.

I think the addition of Lawrence would vastly rejuvenate Chark.  But is Shenault a true game breaker?  Can he stay healthy enough to be dependable?  Conley is likely gone, and Collin Johnson is huge and has made strides, but is that enough?  If somehow a speed guy is available like Waddle or Chase from LSU, I would be tempted to take him, especially if I weren't satisfied with the Ts at or so.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#7

I don't think I would trade up. Darrisaw appears to be separating from the pack at OT2, but he's going to go too high for us to realistically trade up for. Maybe Vera-Tucker if he falls to around 20 and we only have to trade up a few spots at a decent price.
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#8

(12-20-2020, 10:59 PM)ICleatwood Wrote: If Pitts or an elite tackle are falling (think Wirfs Wills Becton last year), I think I try to trade up.

But honestly, I think I stand pat. Take the FA money and go after OLine. If the Jags get Lawerence, they need to protect him at all costs. Taylor and Robinson are scrubs.

Absolutely 10000000% agree and I’m so thankful that Caldwell won’t be the one picking the o line guys because his evaluation of o line was arguably his worst of all positions.
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#9
(This post was last modified: 12-21-2020, 12:05 AM by enigma.)

(12-20-2020, 11:28 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(12-20-2020, 11:03 PM)enigma Wrote: If we remain at #1, we absolutely take Lawrence.

As for the other picks, we stay where we are slotted and take the BAP - as we have to address many deficiencies at many positions. I'd be ok with trading around once we get in the later rounds like Rd.5 and onward.

Lawrence + o-line, d-line, corner, safety, TE - and I'm a happy camper. I think we will see starters emerge pretty deep into the draft - especially with our draft capital.

You specifically mentioned deficiencies.

What if there is a stud WR on the board?

While you did not mention WR as a deficiency, I submit we are not quite as secure in that position as it may seem.

I think the addition of Lawrence would vastly rejuvenate Chark.  But is Shenault a true game breaker?  Can he stay healthy enough to be dependable?  Conley is likely gone, and Collin Johnson is huge and has made strides, but is that enough?  If somehow a speed guy is available like Waddle or Chase from LSU, I would be tempted to take him, especially if I weren't satisfied with the Ts at or so.

The only way I'd give WR a look is if a player like Chase/Waddle falls to our second, 2nd-round pick and that's about it. I truly believe we can snag some real QUALITY starters all the way through our 3rd-round pick - so I'm of the notion where we should hopefully fill positions like o-line, d-line, cornerback, and safety at least through our first four picks (including Lawrence, obviously).

I'm with you though, I don't think our WR group is as solid as it can be, but I would ideally like to address this position through the middle-late rounds. Chark is definitely the bell-cow and I think Shenault will add a dynamic edge from the slot/WR2. Don't forget, we can also address certain positions through the FA with our available capital.

As an example, some of the available WRs are: Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson (wouldn't it be poetic?), Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller V, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and others. However, I think we could stick with the draft for WR in the later rounds and use our FA money to target someone like Justin Simmons (FS/SS).

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#10

By the way, updating the draft order, if my guess is right, the results to day would give us picks 1 and about 21 or so on the first round, and pick 34 at the top of the 2nd round.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#11

I am in the same camp as many who have indicated the need to find a reliable left tackle to protect Lawrence. Darrisaw will be gone too early, but Cosmi would likely be my next choice. I'd even be willing to part with a 4th rounder to move up a few spots to get him. After that, I hope to get a quality tight end, defensive tackle and safety. These are the positions of greatest need, however I'd pretty much stick with getting the BAP throughout the draft.
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#12

I’m 1000000% on the O line train, I would not want what happened to Burrow to happen to our guy. Ofcourse injuries can happen no matter what, but it was just a matter of time for Burrow he was getting battered game after game. Felt so bad for him when he got hurt, Cincy provided no Oline help.

I have said I absolutely hate Cam and Taylor at tackle. Both are just too damn slow and heavy footed. Some around here been throwing out the idea like moving them to guard where they might succeed. I’m starting to come around to that idea. It would eliminate two positions to upgrade on the line. Move both Cam and Taylor to guard and draft two new tackles. I think both of them could actually turn out to be real good players at guard.
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#13
(This post was last modified: 12-21-2020, 02:28 AM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(12-20-2020, 10:56 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Never did I think a blowout loss could be such a breath and a breath of fresh air, but that's exactly what happened today with our loss to the Ravens and the Jets win over the Rams, because with those events, the Jaguars are now slated to have the top overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Assuming this holds true, the question goes from what do we do with the 2nd overall pick, to what do we do with our second first round pick and other picks?

Do you...

1.  Stand pat with our pick in the mid 20s and just take the best players on the board for the remainder of the draft?

2.  Package some picks and try to trade up to get a player you covet but would not be available to you at that point in the draft?  If so, who would you target, and how much would you be willing to move to get that player?

3.  Would you move down from 26?  Is there a position of need for the Jaguars where the draft depth is sufficient in 2nd through 4th rounds?  How many starters do you think we could realistically get in this draft class?

I'm normally against doing this, but if we get Lawrence, I'd be inclined to move up with that other first rounder and select OT Christian Darrisaw of Virginia Tech. I know we'd have to give up a lot in order to move high enough to get him, but PFF gave him a blocking score that was exactly the same as they did Penei Sewell in 2019. It was the highest score they had given since 2014. If we get a true franchise QB, you better protect him. We don't wanna end up like the Bengals and Joe Burrow.
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#14

QB/ OL

If we have to trade up a few spots for a decent lineman I'd do it.
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#15

One thing to keep in mind is that Cam Robinson is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the salary cap is going down next season, so there may be a lot of free agents available, some that we don't expect, and we have lots of cap room.

I'm in the camp that says, if you draft a franchise QB, do everything possible to help him succeed, even if it means we have no defense at all next season. I've seen too many top prospects go out there and get sacked to the point where it ruins their career, either because they have no pass protection, or because they can't find an open receiver.
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#16

(12-21-2020, 05:46 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: One thing to keep in mind is that Cam Robinson is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year.  

Another thing to keep in mind is that the salary cap is going down next season, so there may be a lot of free agents available, some that we don't expect, and we have lots of cap room.    

I'm in the camp that says, if you draft a franchise QB, do everything possible to help him succeed, even if it means we have no defense at all next season.  I've seen too many top prospects go out there and get sacked to the point where it ruins their career, either because they have no pass protection, or because they can't find an open receiver.

Good observation.  I was thinking about what to do with Cam Robinson and the OL generally.

I think I would be inclined to keep Cam Robinson if it's reasonably possible to do so. 

Not because he can't be upgraded.  He certainly can't be.

But I will want insurance just in case the draft doesn't go the way we want in terms of OL availability after taking Trevor Lawrence first overall.  For that matter, I keep Norwell too.  Now even keeping those two, if the draft still goes the way we hope, I still invest in OL.  It would create competition and quality depth going forth.

With this in mind, what is the minimum amount of picks you would allocate towards the OL in this upcoming draft?

For me, even assuming Cam and Norwell are retained, that number would be 2-3.

This board has wanted Cann upgraded for how long?  Linder has been steady throughout his tenure, but he has missed time in almost every season, and while OL can play effectively into their 30s, Linder will be 29 going into next year.  RT Jawan Taylor was considered to be a fortunate find in the 2nd round, he is still maddeningly inconsistent after starting off decently this year.  Now keep in mind, there is no rule that states we have to spend all of our draft capital on the offensive line to try and fix it in its entirety within one season, if it's even possible to do so.  But if we have Trevor Lawrence, we MUST protect him.  I would love for Lawrence to be the equivalent of Andrew Luck in terms of quality, but if he's a Jaguars QB, I want him to have a much longer career than Luck (along with more Super Bowls than Luck).
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#17

Need someone with more time on their hands to look up possible tackles headed towards FA. Actually.... all good OLinemen.
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#18

(12-21-2020, 09:24 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(12-21-2020, 05:46 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: One thing to keep in mind is that Cam Robinson is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year.  

Another thing to keep in mind is that the salary cap is going down next season, so there may be a lot of free agents available, some that we don't expect, and we have lots of cap room.    

I'm in the camp that says, if you draft a franchise QB, do everything possible to help him succeed, even if it means we have no defense at all next season.  I've seen too many top prospects go out there and get sacked to the point where it ruins their career, either because they have no pass protection, or because they can't find an open receiver.

Good observation.  I was thinking about what to do with Cam Robinson and the OL generally.

I think I would be inclined to keep Cam Robinson if it's reasonably possible to do so. 

Not because he can't be upgraded.  He certainly can't be.

But I will want insurance just in case the draft doesn't go the way we want in terms of OL availability after taking Trevor Lawrence first overall.  For that matter, I keep Norwell too.  Now even keeping those two, if the draft still goes the way we hope, I still invest in OL.  It would create competition and quality depth going forth.

With this in mind, what is the minimum amount of picks you would allocate towards the OL in this upcoming draft?

For me, even assuming Cam and Norwell are retained, that number would be 2-3.

This board has wanted Cann upgraded for how long?  Linder has been steady throughout his tenure, but he has missed time in almost every season, and while OL can play effectively into their 30s, Linder will be 29 going into next year.  RT Jawan Taylor was considered to be a fortunate find in the 2nd round, he is still maddeningly inconsistent after starting off decently this year.  Now keep in mind, there is no rule that states we have to spend all of our draft capital on the offensive line to try and fix it in its entirety within one season, if it's even possible to do so.  But if we have Trevor Lawrence, we MUST protect him.  I would love for Lawrence to be the equivalent of Andrew Luck in terms of quality, but if he's a Jaguars QB, I want him to have a much longer career than Luck (along with more Super Bowls than Luck).

While I wouldn't keep Cam Robinson, because both OT's have been awful this season, I definitely keep the interior intact. Norwell has played very well this season, Linder always has seemed to play pretty well when healthy and Cann has even stepped his game up. I like the depth we have on the interior as well. I would definitely re-sign Shatley, because he has been pretty decent when needed and we may not get a chance to add a Center of the future in this draft. I'd still try to add one in the draft if we can though. I liked Landon Dickerson of Alabama quite a bit, but he just suffered a knee injury. If we can't trade up to get OT Darrisaw, I really like Oklahoma's Center, Creed Humphrey. He might be there when we make our second pick in round 1. 

With that said our OT's have been awful in pass protection. I'd rather let Robinson go, find a older, yet reliable LT in free agency who would take a short term deal to compete with a player we take with our second pick in round 1 or at the top of round 2. As I said before, I'd trade up, whatever it takes to get Darrisaw, even if that means overpaying to get into the top 5. If we can't though, I take Liam Eichenberg of Notre Dame. He would be a significant upgrade over Robinson. When you FINALLY get a franchise QB, protect him at all cost. I'd also add another OT in the middle rounds as well, because as bad as Robinson has looked, Taylor may be worse. Unless he makes a significant step forward in 2021, he should not be starting we gotta find good competition for the RT spot and make that an open competition in 2021. Make it open to every O-Lineman on the team. We cannot go into 2021 expecting Robinson and Taylor to be our starting OT's. I would be devastated to have us finally have a franchise QB after 25 years, only to see him get destroyed like Burrow did a few weeks ago. One way or another upgrades to the OT position have to be made.
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#19
(This post was last modified: 12-21-2020, 11:03 AM by The Real Marty.)

(12-21-2020, 09:24 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(12-21-2020, 05:46 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: One thing to keep in mind is that Cam Robinson is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year.  

Another thing to keep in mind is that the salary cap is going down next season, so there may be a lot of free agents available, some that we don't expect, and we have lots of cap room.    

I'm in the camp that says, if you draft a franchise QB, do everything possible to help him succeed, even if it means we have no defense at all next season.  I've seen too many top prospects go out there and get sacked to the point where it ruins their career, either because they have no pass protection, or because they can't find an open receiver.

Good observation.  I was thinking about what to do with Cam Robinson and the OL generally.

I think I would be inclined to keep Cam Robinson if it's reasonably possible to do so. 

Not because he can't be upgraded.  He certainly can't be.

But I will want insurance just in case the draft doesn't go the way we want in terms of OL availability after taking Trevor Lawrence first overall.  For that matter, I keep Norwell too.  Now even keeping those two, if the draft still goes the way we hope, I still invest in OL.  It would create competition and quality depth going forth.

With this in mind, what is the minimum amount of picks you would allocate towards the OL in this upcoming draft?

For me, even assuming Cam and Norwell are retained, that number would be 2-3.

This board has wanted Cann upgraded for how long?  Linder has been steady throughout his tenure, but he has missed time in almost every season, and while OL can play effectively into their 30s, Linder will be 29 going into next year.  RT Jawan Taylor was considered to be a fortunate find in the 2nd round, he is still maddeningly inconsistent after starting off decently this year.  Now keep in mind, there is no rule that states we have to spend all of our draft capital on the offensive line to try and fix it in its entirety within one season, if it's even possible to do so.  But if we have Trevor Lawrence, we MUST protect him.  I would love for Lawrence to be the equivalent of Andrew Luck in terms of quality, but if he's a Jaguars QB, I want him to have a much longer career than Luck (along with more Super Bowls than Luck).

In a normal year, I would always allocate at least one draft pick to an OL.  It's that important.  A team must have a pipeline of OLs to develop for future starting roles.  And in a year where we draft a franchise QB, and we have 10 other picks, I would want to spend at least one high pick on an OL and another later pick on a developmental guy.  

But one thing I would reiterate, a lot of young QBs and for that matter a lot of QBs in general, get sacked from holding the ball too long, and they do that because they can't find an open receiver.  So in addition to getting the new QB great protection, you also have to give him reliable weapons so he doesn't sit back there holding the ball.
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#20

(12-20-2020, 10:56 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Never did I think a blowout loss could be such a breath and a breath of fresh air, but that's exactly what happened today with our loss to the Ravens and the Jets win over the Rams, because with those events, the Jaguars are now slated to have the top overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Assuming this holds true, the question goes from what do we do with the 2nd overall pick, to what do we do with our second first round pick and other picks?

Do you...

1.  Stand pat with our pick in the mid 20s and just take the best players on the board for the remainder of the draft?

2.  Package some picks and try to trade up to get a player you covet but would not be available to you at that point in the draft?  If so, who would you target, and how much would you be willing to move to get that player?

3.  Would you move down from 26?  Is there a position of need for the Jaguars where the draft depth is sufficient in 2nd through 4th rounds?  How many starters do you think we could realistically get in this draft class?

I think the holes on this roster are too numerous to do much trading up, unless someone freefalls to the point where you'd be foolish not to make the jump and get them.

This may be the ideal draft just to sit back and grab the top guy on your board at every pick. April gonna be fun!
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