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Trade Up Hypothetical

#1

Warning:  The mock draft simulator triggered this line of questioning.


As you know we currently have some 10-11 picks in this draft, including the first overall pick, which presumably would land us Trevor Lawrence, the franchise signal caller this team has lacked since its inception.  Due to trades, we have two picks in the first (1, 25) and second rounds (33, 45).

If you assume the Jaguars decide to bolster the defense at 25, there is still presumably a need to bolster the offensive line and TE to help protect Lawrence and give him a security blanket over the middle.  On the board at 33, there are players at each area (Cosmi, Leatherwood, et al) at OL and one at TE (Friermuth) that would seem to fit perfectly.  However, none of those guys would seemingly project to be available at 45. 

Would you be willing to trade our 3rd round pick, (#65 overall) along with our #45 to say Atlanta at 35 to ensure we got the players at both positions?

Adhering to the trade value chart, there is a 100 point difference between pick 35 and 45.

So a somewhat equitable deal might look like this:

Atlanta sends

#35  (550 points)
#98 (108 points)
#131 (41 points)=699 points

We send

#45 (450 points)
#65 (265 points)=715 points

Keep in mind, you have to give Atlanta some incentive to deal down, so it is numerically weighted towards them.  Besides, Atl has no 7th round pick this year that would make up the difference.

Questions:

Would you do the trade as listed above?  Why?

If not, why not?

Do you think the difference between 35 and 45 is worth giving up our 3rd round pick, even if it means the difference between landing a T or a TE that may help Trevor Lawrence maximize his production early in his career?  Does it matter that the trade would leave us with threee (3) 4th round picks and still 2 5th round picks, giving us plenty of capital to move back up into the 3rd round to target a player, if needed?

Do you think the players we would target at 33 and 35 (assuming the trade is viable) would also be available at 45?

Should we continue to pursue defense instead of offense with those picks?

If you would oppose the deal under the circumstances laid out above, is there a player or players you would think would make such a deal worth it?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#2

I don't trade up under any circumstances. We need to keep that #25 pick, because we must get a very good OT and they are gonna go very quickly. The elite OT's will go in round 1 and the good ones are gonna go pretty high in round 2. I know people are clamoring for help on the defensive interior, but that need will be determined by which scheme we end up running. If we stick with a 4-3 base, it remains a top need. If we switch to a 3-4 base, that need goes way down, because Hamilton would play the NT with Costin on the outside at 5 Technique and possibly, a re-signed Smoot at the other 5 technique position. Even if Smoot isn't re-signed, it's a lot easier to find 5 techniques later in the draft, than it is to find pass rushing 3 techniques. The level of that need should be determined when the team announces what kind of defense we're gonna run. IMO, a 3-4 base would be a lot more effective, given our current personnel and creates one less immediate need at the top end of the draft.

I also have the philosophy that I would never trade up in the draft, unless it's for a franchise QB or perhaps a franchise LT. Obviously, we're getting our QB with the first pick, so there is no need to trade up there. Penei Sewell is the trophy of the LT position in this draft and we'd have to somehow get ahead of the Bengals at #5 to get him. That isn't happening. I live in the Cincinnati area and everything I'm hearing is that the Bengals are locked in on him. The other OT's I'm interested in are Eichenberg, Darrisaw, Jenkins and Radunz. All could be gone by the #33 pick, but all should be gone by the end of the second round. Slater and Vera Tucker will likely be gone before we pick at #25 and that is fine by me, because I see them as OG's in the NFL. I'm also not high on Mayfield, because I don't like starting college RT's at LT in the NFL. I believe we can find competition for the RT spot later in the draft. I want nothing to do with Cosmi either. He's way too raw and is too up and down in pass protection. I don't see him as a major upgrade over Robinson. Leatherwood should definitely move inside to OG as well, but may be decent as a RT. He not an NFL LT though.

I also target a starting CB in round 2. We have Henderson on one side, but we must upgrade the other starting CB spot and we are most definitely going to have a new starting Nickel as well. That is a high priority. Safety is a HUGE issue and although there is no "elite" Safeties in this draft, the position is very deep in the middle rounds. I believe we could find a very good starter in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Hopefully, we address at least one Safety spot in free agency.

I am totally against trading up in any way for a TE. Typically, rookie TE's take a long while to develop. I believe this is one position that must be addressed in free agency. As I have said before, I believe Jonnu Smith would be a really good fit for our offense. If not and we are forced to draft one, there are several under the radar type players who can probably be drafted in the 4th or 5th rounds that we could develop.

As I said before, the DT position will be the key. Once we find out the defensive scheme, we can make a true draft plan, but we have a ton of needs and we'll need all of those first and second day picks to address those critical positions. If we are smart in drafting and are able to bring in some good free agents at crucial spots, we can turn this team around possibly one year faster than we anticipated.
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#3

Unfortunately, the philosophical portion of the question can't be answered until we know who's on the board.

That aside, I think that the math is going to be off for your deal. ATL is in just as dire straits as we are, from a roster perspective. They have a few blocks in place, but those blocks are getting older, and draft picks are likely to be a premium for them. Getting them to move off of 35 is probably going to take more than a 16-point differential in their favor. I don't even know if dropping 131 from the deal is enough to get them to move. That early in the draft, it's unlikely that trades are going to break even. And if we have to do a deal for say, 35 and 131 for our 45 and 65, the guy we take at 35 better be a fantastic value because we'd be losing out on a deal like that.

This is where the GMs earn their paychecks, that is for certain.
Reply

#4
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021, 10:06 AM by Bullseye.)

(02-02-2021, 02:37 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I don't trade up under any circumstances. We need to keep that #25 pick, because we must get a very good OT and they are gonna go very quickly. The elite OT's will go in round 1 and the good ones are gonna go pretty high in round 2. I know people are clamoring for help on the defensive interior, but that need will be determined by which scheme we end up running. If we stick with a 4-3 base, it remains a top need. If we switch to a 3-4 base, that need goes way down, because Hamilton would play the NT with Costin on the outside at 5 Technique and possibly, a re-signed Smoot at the other 5 technique position. Even if Smoot isn't re-signed, it's a lot easier to find 5 techniques later in the draft, than it is to find pass rushing 3 techniques. The level of that need should be determined when the team announces what kind of defense we're gonna run. IMO, a 3-4 base would be a lot more effective, given our current personnel and creates one less immediate need at the top end of the draft.

I also have the philosophy that I would never trade up in the draft, unless it's for a franchise QB or perhaps a franchise LT. Obviously, we're getting our QB with the first pick, so there is no need to trade up there. Penei Sewell is the trophy of the LT position in this draft and we'd have to somehow get ahead of the Bengals at #5 to get him. That isn't happening. I live in the Cincinnati area and everything I'm hearing is that the Bengals are locked in on him. The other OT's I'm interested in are Eichenberg, Darrisaw, Jenkins and Radunz. All could be gone by the #33 pick, but all should be gone by the end of the second round. Slater and Vera Tucker will likely be gone before we pick at #25 and that is fine by me, because I see them as OG's in the NFL. I'm also not high on Mayfield, because I don't like starting college RT's at LT in the NFL. I believe we can find competition for the RT spot later in the draft. I want nothing to do with Cosmi either. He's way too raw and is too up and down in pass protection. I don't see him as a major upgrade over Robinson. Leatherwood should definitely move inside to OG as well, but may be decent as a RT. He not an NFL LT though.

I also target a starting CB in round 2. We have Henderson on one side, but we must upgrade the other starting CB spot and we are most definitely going to have a new starting Nickel as well. That is a high priority. Safety is a HUGE issue and although there is no "elite" Safeties in this draft, the position is very deep in the middle rounds. I believe we could find a very good starter in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Hopefully, we address at least one Safety spot in free agency.

I am totally against trading up in any way for a TE. Typically, rookie TE's take a long while to develop. I believe this is one position that must be addressed in free agency. As I have said before, I believe Jonnu Smith would be a really good fit for our offense. If not and we are forced to draft one, there are several under the radar type players who can probably be drafted in the 4th or 5th rounds that we could develop.

As I said before, the DT position will be the key. Once we find out the defensive scheme, we can make a true draft plan, but we have a ton of needs and we'll need all of those first and second day picks to address those critical positions. If we are smart in drafting and are able to bring in some good free agents at crucial spots, we can turn this team around possibly one year faster than we anticipated.
To be clear, the above hypothetical presumes we kept the #25 overall pick and spent it on the Alabama NT, and that we are switching to a 3-4.  Admittedly, I did not make the part about the 3-4 clear.  Although a NT is key to having an effective 3-4 and I like Barmore as a player, I do not advocate taking him at 25.  But as long as we're talking 3-4, I think Hamilton, if healthy, has the build to play NT and the up field quickness and pass rush ability to play DE in that alignment.  More on the 3-4 later.

As for your no anti trade up philosophy, under this scenario, while nobody is saying the tackles likely to be available to us at the top of the 2nd would ever be mistaken for an in his prime Boselli, getting the right one could substantially upgrade the position for us and our QB.  History demonstrates most LTs are found in round 1, there have been rare instances where solid LTs have been found lower in the draft (Roos, Bakhtiari).  OI.  If, for whatever reason, the new brass decided to prioritize defense at 25, and the team was unwilling/unable to sign Trent Williams in free agency (another part of the hypothetical I left out), I would submit LT becomes even more of a priority.  Conversely, if we sign T. Williams, the hypothetical becomes largely moot in my mind.  Sub question:  are any of the Ts you like above potential franchise LTs in your mind, or at least worth trading up from 25 to ensure?  Consider there are a slew of teams picking right in front of us that have a potential need at LT (Was, Chi, Indy, Ten, Pit).

I understand your reticence to trade up for a TE.  In this scenario, a trade up for Friermuth may not be necessary.  The scenario posits acquiring the ability to address TE and LT.  We could take Friermuth at 33 in this scenario.  Though TEs are generally found in the middle rounds by good drafting teams, there is a drop off between Pitts and Friermuth, and then another dropoff between Friermuth and the other TEs.

We are in agreement about DB availability in this draft.  If we play our cards right, I think our draft would look something like this

1.  Lawrence
25.  LT
33.  Friermuth
45.  CB/NT
65.  IOL, WR, NT, LB, S
100.  IOL, NT, LB, S
124.  IOL, NT, LB, S, RB
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





Reply

#5

(02-02-2021, 09:35 AM)Mikey Wrote: Unfortunately, the philosophical portion of the question can't be answered until we know who's on the board.

That aside, I think that the math is going to be off for your deal. ATL is in just as dire straits as we are, from a roster perspective. They have a few blocks in place, but those blocks are getting older, and draft picks are likely to be a premium for them. Getting them to move off of 35 is probably going to take more than a 16-point differential in their favor. I don't even know if dropping 131 from the deal is enough to get them to move. That early in the draft, it's unlikely that trades are going to break even. And if we have to do a deal for say, 35 and 131 for our 45 and 65, the guy we take at 35 better be a fantastic value because we'd be losing out on a deal like that.

This is where the GMs earn their paychecks, that is for certain.

This, It all depends on who is there
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#6
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021, 11:27 AM by Bullseye.)

(02-02-2021, 11:04 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 09:35 AM)Mikey Wrote: Unfortunately, the philosophical portion of the question can't be answered until we know who's on the board.

That aside, I think that the math is going to be off for your deal. ATL is in just as dire straits as we are, from a roster perspective. They have a few blocks in place, but those blocks are getting older, and draft picks are likely to be a premium for them. Getting them to move off of 35 is probably going to take more than a 16-point differential in their favor. I don't even know if dropping 131 from the deal is enough to get them to move. That early in the draft, it's unlikely that trades are going to break even. And if we have to do a deal for say, 35 and 131 for our 45 and 65, the guy we take at 35 better be a fantastic value because we'd be losing out on a deal like that.

This is where the GMs earn their paychecks, that is for certain.

This, It all depends on who is there

So who would have to be there for you to make the move?

(02-02-2021, 09:35 AM)Mikey Wrote: Unfortunately, the philosophical portion of the question can't be answered until we know who's on the board.

That aside, I think that the math is going to be off for your deal. ATL is in just as dire straits as we are, from a roster perspective. They have a few blocks in place, but those blocks are getting older, and draft picks are likely to be a premium for them. Getting them to move off of 35 is probably going to take more than a 16-point differential in their favor. I don't even know if dropping 131 from the deal is enough to get them to move. That early in the draft, it's unlikely that trades are going to break even. And if we have to do a deal for say, 35 and 131 for our 45 and 65, the guy we take at 35 better be a fantastic value because we'd be losing out on a deal like that.

This is where the GMs earn their paychecks, that is for certain.

So who would have to be on the board in order for you to make that move?

Not sure they are quite in such dire straits as us.

They had huge leads in many of their games, only to bloqw those leads like they did in the Super Bowl.

But if you like, you could switch the hypothetical to Dallas' pick instead of Atlanta's.

Jerry Jones likes to pretend he's smart by trading down a bit.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





Reply

#7
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021, 11:44 AM by flgatorsandjags.)

(02-02-2021, 11:24 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 11:04 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: This, It all depends on who is there

So who would have to be there for you to make the move?

(02-02-2021, 09:35 AM)Mikey Wrote: Unfortunately, the philosophical portion of the question can't be answered until we know who's on the board.

That aside, I think that the math is going to be off for your deal. ATL is in just as dire straits as we are, from a roster perspective. They have a few blocks in place, but those blocks are getting older, and draft picks are likely to be a premium for them. Getting them to move off of 35 is probably going to take more than a 16-point differential in their favor. I don't even know if dropping 131 from the deal is enough to get them to move. That early in the draft, it's unlikely that trades are going to break even. And if we have to do a deal for say, 35 and 131 for our 45 and 65, the guy we take at 35 better be a fantastic value because we'd be losing out on a deal like that.

This is where the GMs earn their paychecks, that is for certain.

So who would have to be on the board in order for you to make that move?

Not sure they are quite in such dire straits as us.

They had huge leads in many of their games, only to bloqw those leads like they did in the Super Bowl.

But if you like, you could switch the hypothetical to Dallas' pick instead of Atlanta's.

Jerry Jones likes to pretend he's smart by trading down a bit.

Pitts or if Waddle falls because of injury.  If we don't get a DT in FA i would also think about it for Barmore. Michael Parsons would be another, highly likely any of them fall but its happened before

Sertain Jr would be another I'd move up for
Reply

#8
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021, 11:55 AM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(02-02-2021, 10:00 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 02:37 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I don't trade up under any circumstances. We need to keep that #25 pick, because we must get a very good OT and they are gonna go very quickly. The elite OT's will go in round 1 and the good ones are gonna go pretty high in round 2. I know people are clamoring for help on the defensive interior, but that need will be determined by which scheme we end up running. If we stick with a 4-3 base, it remains a top need. If we switch to a 3-4 base, that need goes way down, because Hamilton would play the NT with Costin on the outside at 5 Technique and possibly, a re-signed Smoot at the other 5 technique position. Even if Smoot isn't re-signed, it's a lot easier to find 5 techniques later in the draft, than it is to find pass rushing 3 techniques. The level of that need should be determined when the team announces what kind of defense we're gonna run. IMO, a 3-4 base would be a lot more effective, given our current personnel and creates one less immediate need at the top end of the draft.

I also have the philosophy that I would never trade up in the draft, unless it's for a franchise QB or perhaps a franchise LT. Obviously, we're getting our QB with the first pick, so there is no need to trade up there. Penei Sewell is the trophy of the LT position in this draft and we'd have to somehow get ahead of the Bengals at #5 to get him. That isn't happening. I live in the Cincinnati area and everything I'm hearing is that the Bengals are locked in on him. The other OT's I'm interested in are Eichenberg, Darrisaw, Jenkins and Radunz. All could be gone by the #33 pick, but all should be gone by the end of the second round. Slater and Vera Tucker will likely be gone before we pick at #25 and that is fine by me, because I see them as OG's in the NFL. I'm also not high on Mayfield, because I don't like starting college RT's at LT in the NFL. I believe we can find competition for the RT spot later in the draft. I want nothing to do with Cosmi either. He's way too raw and is too up and down in pass protection. I don't see him as a major upgrade over Robinson. Leatherwood should definitely move inside to OG as well, but may be decent as a RT. He not an NFL LT though.

I also target a starting CB in round 2. We have Henderson on one side, but we must upgrade the other starting CB spot and we are most definitely going to have a new starting Nickel as well. That is a high priority. Safety is a HUGE issue and although there is no "elite" Safeties in this draft, the position is very deep in the middle rounds. I believe we could find a very good starter in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Hopefully, we address at least one Safety spot in free agency.

I am totally against trading up in any way for a TE. Typically, rookie TE's take a long while to develop. I believe this is one position that must be addressed in free agency. As I have said before, I believe Jonnu Smith would be a really good fit for our offense. If not and we are forced to draft one, there are several under the radar type players who can probably be drafted in the 4th or 5th rounds that we could develop.

As I said before, the DT position will be the key. Once we find out the defensive scheme, we can make a true draft plan, but we have a ton of needs and we'll need all of those first and second day picks to address those critical positions. If we are smart in drafting and are able to bring in some good free agents at crucial spots, we can turn this team around possibly one year faster than we anticipated.
To be clear, the above hypothetical presumes we kept the #25 overall pick and spent it on the Alabama NT, and that we are switching to a 3-4.  Admittedly, I did not make the part about the 3-4 clear.  Although a NT is key to having an effective 3-4 and I like Barmore as a player, I do not advocate taking him at 25.  But as long as we're talking 3-4, I think Hamilton, if healthy, has the build to play NT and the up field quickness and pass rush ability to play DE in that alignment.  More on the 3-4 later.

As for your no anti trade up philosophy, under this scenario, while nobody is saying the tackles likely to be available to us at the top of the 2nd would ever be mistaken for an in his prime Boselli, getting the right one could substantially upgrade the position for us and our QB.  History demonstrates most LTs are found in round 1, there have been rare instances where solid LTs have been found lower in the draft (Roos, Bakhtiari).  OI.  If, for whatever reason, the new brass decided to prioritize defense at 25, and the team was unwilling/unable to sign Trent Williams in free agency (another part of the hypothetical I left out), I would submit LT becomes even more of a priority.  Conversely, if we sign T. Williams, the hypothetical becomes largely moot in my mind.  Sub question:  are any of the Ts you like above potential franchise LTs in your mind, or at least worth trading up from 25 to ensure?  Consider there are a slew of teams picking right in front of us that have a potential need at LT (Was, Chi, Indy, Ten, Pit).

I understand your reticence to trade up for a TE.  In this scenario, a trade up for Friermuth may not be necessary.  The scenario posits acquiring the ability to address TE and LT.  We could take Friermuth at 33 in this scenario.  Though TEs are generally found in the middle rounds by good drafting teams, there is a drop off between Pitts and Friermuth, and then another dropoff between Friermuth and the other TEs.

We are in agreement about DB availability in this draft.  If we play our cards right, I think our draft would look something like this

1.  Lawrence
25.  LT
33.  Friermuth
45.  CB/NT
65.  IOL, WR, NT, LB, S
100.  IOL, NT, LB, S
124.  IOL, NT, LB, S, RB

If we are switching to a 3-4 defense, I already have Hamilton penciled in as our starting NT. We started the season out pretty poorly in run defense, but once Abry Jones got hurt and Hamilton got more playing time as the starter, our run defense improved quite a bit and even looked competent. He even graded out among the best DT's in the league during that time. It was only after Hamilton got hurt, that the run defense fell to pieces. In my mind, I saw enough to make him the 2021 starting NT no matter what scheme we run. I don't see an immediate need for a DT, unless we are sticking with a 4-3 scheme. In that case, I'd probably address the position with the #33 pick, as I would definitely take a LT at #25. We simply cannot risk losing out on the best OT's, when we're bringing in a rookie QB who is the #1 pick and we have a massive hole at both OT spots. 

Personally, I think it's a long shot that we sign Trent Williams in free agency. I truly believe the Niners will do whatever they have to do to get him re-signed before free agency. This is an unusual year for me as I like multiple OT's in this class. Normally, I get fixated on one, maybe two, but this year there are several really good players who imo, would be significant upgrades over Cam Robinson. The problem is that there has been such a scarcity of talent at LT in the last few drafts and teams are gonna select these players rather quickly. With that said, I still believe one or more of the LT's I talked about will be on the board at #25, so I have no desire to trade up. I think we are in a very good position. As for RT, no matter how poorly Jawaan Taylor played last season, I don't think the team is gonna part with him just yet. I believe the best we can do is bring in some good competition for the starting RT spot. Luckily, Taylor set the bar so low, it should be fairly easy to find a better RT in the 3rd to 4th round area of the draft. 

As for TE, I'm in the minority. I just don't consider it a need that is big enough to spend a high round pick on. Plenty of good NFL teams can survive without outstanding play from the TE position. Buffalo is a good example. They have competent TE's, but they are nothing that stands out. Kansas City and Travis Kelce is more of an anomaly than what we normally see. Gronk is another example. I believe a good QB, like we're getting in Lawrence, can make decent TE's look much better than they would otherwise be. He didn't even utilize the TE that much at Clemson and he was outstanding. I know we haven't had great play for the TE spot for many years, but we've never really had consistently good QB play since Mark Brunell was here. I believe those two are directly related. As I also said, rookie TE's usually take a long while to develop. Would we really wanna spend that #33 pick on a TE that might take 2-3 years to come into his own or wouldn't we be better off spending that pick that on a defensive player that might make an impact in the first season or two? I'll take the defensive player every time. That doesn't mean I ignore the position. I make TE a priority in free agency. 

I'm not really a fan of waiting until #45 to take a CB, but if we stick with a 4-3 scheme, that is most likely going to be the scenario, since getting a 3 technique would be a must. This is a down year for the CB position and to be honest, the real impact guys are gonna either be gone or very thinned out by #45. I consider it a much bigger need than TE and I'd have to see who is left on the board at #33 to decide between CB and 3 technique (if we stuck to a 4-3 base.) I specifically would prefer a CB with size, as Caldwell brought in a bunch of smaller, mid to late round corners last season, which infuriated me. NFL WR's are getting bigger and faster and we need bigger, physical corners to match up with them. 

What I would do in round 2 on, is based solely what we intend to use as our base defense and who we sign in free agency, but no matter what, I wanna keep all or as many picks as we have now. We have a ton of needs. I specifically am against trading any first or second day picks. That is gonna be where we should find most of our starters.

(02-02-2021, 11:43 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 11:24 AM)Bullseye Wrote: So who would have to be there for you to make the move?


So who would have to be on the board in order for you to make that move?

Not sure they are quite in such dire straits as us.

They had huge leads in many of their games, only to bloqw those leads like they did in the Super Bowl.

But if you like, you could switch the hypothetical to Dallas' pick instead of Atlanta's.

Jerry Jones likes to pretend he's smart by trading down a bit.

Pitts or if Waddle falls because of injury.  If we don't get a DT in FA i would also think about it for Barmore.  Michael Parsons would be another, highly likely any of them fall but its happened before

Sertain Jr would be another I'd move up for

Where would you play Parsons? We are stuck with Schobert, at least through next season and Jack is definitely penciled in as either the WLB or the other ILB, depending on whether we switch to a 3-4 scheme. You'd basically be trading up to provide depth at LB. We need immediate starters.
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#9
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021, 12:18 PM by flgatorsandjags.)

(02-02-2021, 11:50 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 10:00 AM)Bullseye Wrote: To be clear, the above hypothetical presumes we kept the #25 overall pick and spent it on the Alabama NT, and that we are switching to a 3-4.  Admittedly, I did not make the part about the 3-4 clear.  Although a NT is key to having an effective 3-4 and I like Barmore as a player, I do not advocate taking him at 25.  But as long as we're talking 3-4, I think Hamilton, if healthy, has the build to play NT and the up field quickness and pass rush ability to play DE in that alignment.  More on the 3-4 later.

As for your no anti trade up philosophy, under this scenario, while nobody is saying the tackles likely to be available to us at the top of the 2nd would ever be mistaken for an in his prime Boselli, getting the right one could substantially upgrade the position for us and our QB.  History demonstrates most LTs are found in round 1, there have been rare instances where solid LTs have been found lower in the draft (Roos, Bakhtiari).  OI.  If, for whatever reason, the new brass decided to prioritize defense at 25, and the team was unwilling/unable to sign Trent Williams in free agency (another part of the hypothetical I left out), I would submit LT becomes even more of a priority.  Conversely, if we sign T. Williams, the hypothetical becomes largely moot in my mind.  Sub question:  are any of the Ts you like above potential franchise LTs in your mind, or at least worth trading up from 25 to ensure?  Consider there are a slew of teams picking right in front of us that have a potential need at LT (Was, Chi, Indy, Ten, Pit).

I understand your reticence to trade up for a TE.  In this scenario, a trade up for Friermuth may not be necessary.  The scenario posits acquiring the ability to address TE and LT.  We could take Friermuth at 33 in this scenario.  Though TEs are generally found in the middle rounds by good drafting teams, there is a drop off between Pitts and Friermuth, and then another dropoff between Friermuth and the other TEs.

We are in agreement about DB availability in this draft.  If we play our cards right, I think our draft would look something like this

1.  Lawrence
25.  LT
33.  Friermuth
45.  CB/NT
65.  IOL, WR, NT, LB, S
100.  IOL, NT, LB, S
124.  IOL, NT, LB, S, RB

If we are switching to a 3-4 defense, I already have Hamilton penciled in as our starting NT. We started the season out pretty poorly in run defense, but once Abry Jones got hurt and Hamilton got more playing time as the starter, our run defense improved quite a bit and even looked competent. He even graded out among the best DT's in the league during that time. It was only after Hamilton got hurt, that the run defense fell to pieces. In my mind, I saw enough to make him the 2021 starting NT no matter what scheme we run. I don't see an immediate need for a DT, unless we are sticking with a 4-3 scheme. In that case, I'd probably address the position with the #33 pick, as I would definitely take a LT at #25. We simply cannot risk losing out on the best OT's, when we're bringing in a rookie QB who is the #1 pick and we have a massive hole at both OT spots. 

Personally, I think it's a long shot that we sign Trent Williams in free agency. I truly believe the Niners will do whatever they have to do to get him re-signed before free agency. This is an unusual year for me as I like multiple OT's in this class. Normally, I get fixated on one, maybe two, but this year there are several really good players who imo, would be significant upgrades over Cam Robinson. The problem is that there has been such a scarcity of talent at LT in the last few drafts and teams are gonna select these players rather quickly. With that said, I still believe one or more of the LT's I talked about will be on the board at #25, so I have no desire to trade up. I think we are in a very good position. As for RT, no matter how poorly Jawaan Taylor played last season, I don't think the team is gonna part with him just yet. I believe the best we can do is bring in some good competition for the starting RT spot. Luckily, Taylor set the bar so low, it should be fairly easy to find a better RT in the 3rd to 4th round area of the draft. 

As for TE, I'm in the minority. I just don't consider it a need that is big enough to spend a high round pick on. Plenty of good NFL teams can survive without outstanding play from the TE position. Buffalo is a good example. They have competent TE's, but they are nothing that stands out. Kansas City and Travis Kelce is more of an anomaly than what we normally see. Gronk is another example. I believe a good QB, like we're getting in Lawrence, can make decent TE's look much better than they would otherwise be. He didn't even utilize the TE that much at Clemson and he was outstanding. I know we haven't had great play for the TE spot for many years, but we've never really had consistently good QB play since Mark Brunell was here. I believe those two are directly related. As I also said, rookie TE's usually take a long while to develop. Would we really wanna spend that #33 pick on a TE that might take 2-3 years to come into his own or wouldn't we be better off spending that pick that on a defensive player that might make an impact in the first season or two? I'll take the defensive player every time. That doesn't mean I ignore the position. I make TE a priority in free agency. 

I'm not really a fan of waiting until #45 to take a CB, but if we stick with a 4-3 scheme, that is most likely going to be the scenario, since getting a 3 technique would be a must. This is a down year for the CB position and to be honest, the real impact guys are gonna either be gone or very thinned out by #45. I consider it a much bigger need than TE and I'd have to see who is left on the board at #33 to decide between CB and 3 technique (if we stuck to a 4-3 base.) I specifically would prefer a CB with size, as Caldwell brought in a bunch of smaller, mid to late round corners last season, which infuriated me. NFL WR's are getting bigger and faster and we need bigger, physical corners to match up with them. 

What I would do in round 2 on, is based solely what we intend to use as our base defense and who we sign in free agency, but no matter what, I wanna keep all or as many picks as we have now. We have a ton of needs. I specifically am against trading any first or second day picks. That is gonna be where we should find most of our starters.

(02-02-2021, 11:43 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Pitts or if Waddle falls because of injury.  If we don't get a DT in FA i would also think about it for Barmore.  Michael Parsons would be another, highly likely any of them fall but its happened before

Sertain Jr would be another I'd move up for

Where would you play Parsons? We are stuck with Schobert, at least through next season and Jack is definitely penciled in as either the WLB or the other ILB, depending on whether we switch to a 3-4 scheme. You'd basically be trading up to provide depth at LB. We need immediate starters.
I'd play him in the middle and move Schobert to Sam in 4-3 packages.  I'm not gonna let a Schoberts contract affect me from getting a elite LB.  I'm not drafting position lm, I'm drafting the best players.
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#10

Passing on a great player because you fill the need to fill in a position is one of the reasons we are in a position we are in now
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#11

Put the team in the best position to win.

If the value of Player A is greater than the Value of Players B + C (+ So on) then you make the trade.  If not, then you don't.  The question becomes is it better to have Player A than having both Player B and Player C (and so forth).
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#12

(02-02-2021, 11:50 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 10:00 AM)Bullseye Wrote: To be clear, the above hypothetical presumes we kept the #25 overall pick and spent it on the Alabama NT, and that we are switching to a 3-4.  Admittedly, I did not make the part about the 3-4 clear.  Although a NT is key to having an effective 3-4 and I like Barmore as a player, I do not advocate taking him at 25.  But as long as we're talking 3-4, I think Hamilton, if healthy, has the build to play NT and the up field quickness and pass rush ability to play DE in that alignment.  More on the 3-4 later.

As for your no anti trade up philosophy, under this scenario, while nobody is saying the tackles likely to be available to us at the top of the 2nd would ever be mistaken for an in his prime Boselli, getting the right one could substantially upgrade the position for us and our QB.  History demonstrates most LTs are found in round 1, there have been rare instances where solid LTs have been found lower in the draft (Roos, Bakhtiari).  OI.  If, for whatever reason, the new brass decided to prioritize defense at 25, and the team was unwilling/unable to sign Trent Williams in free agency (another part of the hypothetical I left out), I would submit LT becomes even more of a priority.  Conversely, if we sign T. Williams, the hypothetical becomes largely moot in my mind.  Sub question:  are any of the Ts you like above potential franchise LTs in your mind, or at least worth trading up from 25 to ensure?  Consider there are a slew of teams picking right in front of us that have a potential need at LT (Was, Chi, Indy, Ten, Pit).

I understand your reticence to trade up for a TE.  In this scenario, a trade up for Friermuth may not be necessary.  The scenario posits acquiring the ability to address TE and LT.  We could take Friermuth at 33 in this scenario.  Though TEs are generally found in the middle rounds by good drafting teams, there is a drop off between Pitts and Friermuth, and then another dropoff between Friermuth and the other TEs.

We are in agreement about DB availability in this draft.  If we play our cards right, I think our draft would look something like this

1.  Lawrence
25.  LT
33.  Friermuth
45.  CB/NT
65.  IOL, WR, NT, LB, S
100.  IOL, NT, LB, S
124.  IOL, NT, LB, S, RB

If we are switching to a 3-4 defense, I already have Hamilton penciled in as our starting NT. We started the season out pretty poorly in run defense, but once Abry Jones got hurt and Hamilton got more playing time as the starter, our run defense improved quite a bit and even looked competent. He even graded out among the best DT's in the league during that time. It was only after Hamilton got hurt, that the run defense fell to pieces. In my mind, I saw enough to make him the 2021 starting NT no matter what scheme we run. I don't see an immediate need for a DT, unless we are sticking with a 4-3 scheme. In that case, I'd probably address the position with the #33 pick, as I would definitely take a LT at #25. We simply cannot risk losing out on the best OT's, when we're bringing in a rookie QB who is the #1 pick and we have a massive hole at both OT spots. 

Personally, I think it's a long shot that we sign Trent Williams in free agency. I truly believe the Niners will do whatever they have to do to get him re-signed before free agency. This is an unusual year for me as I like multiple OT's in this class. Normally, I get fixated on one, maybe two, but this year there are several really good players who imo, would be significant upgrades over Cam Robinson. The problem is that there has been such a scarcity of talent at LT in the last few drafts and teams are gonna select these players rather quickly. With that said, I still believe one or more of the LT's I talked about will be on the board at #25, so I have no desire to trade up. I think we are in a very good position. As for RT, no matter how poorly Jawaan Taylor played last season, I don't think the team is gonna part with him just yet. I believe the best we can do is bring in some good competition for the starting RT spot. Luckily, Taylor set the bar so low, it should be fairly easy to find a better RT in the 3rd to 4th round area of the draft. 

As for TE, I'm in the minority. I just don't consider it a need that is big enough to spend a high round pick on. Plenty of good NFL teams can survive without outstanding play from the TE position. Buffalo is a good example. They have competent TE's, but they are nothing that stands out. Kansas City and Travis Kelce is more of an anomaly than what we normally see. Gronk is another example. I believe a good QB, like we're getting in Lawrence, can make decent TE's look much better than they would otherwise be. He didn't even utilize the TE that much at Clemson and he was outstanding. I know we haven't had great play for the TE spot for many years, but we've never really had consistently good QB play since Mark Brunell was here. I believe those two are directly related. As I also said, rookie TE's usually take a long while to develop. Would we really wanna spend that #33 pick on a TE that might take 2-3 years to come into his own or wouldn't we be better off spending that pick that on a defensive player that might make an impact in the first season or two? I'll take the defensive player every time. That doesn't mean I ignore the position. I make TE a priority in free agency. 

I'm not really a fan of waiting until #45 to take a CB, but if we stick with a 4-3 scheme, that is most likely going to be the scenario, since getting a 3 technique would be a must. This is a down year for the CB position and to be honest, the real impact guys are gonna either be gone or very thinned out by #45. I consider it a much bigger need than TE and I'd have to see who is left on the board at #33 to decide between CB and 3 technique (if we stuck to a 4-3 base.) I specifically would prefer a CB with size, as Caldwell brought in a bunch of smaller, mid to late round corners last season, which infuriated me. NFL WR's are getting bigger and faster and we need bigger, physical corners to match up with them. 

What I would do in round 2 on, is based solely what we intend to use as our base defense and who we sign in free agency, but no matter what, I wanna keep all or as many picks as we have now. We have a ton of needs. I specifically am against trading any first or second day picks. That is gonna be where we should find most of our starters.

Regarding the 3-4, I would think when we draft DL would depend on the overarching philosophy the team adopts.  I know most teams use mid to late round picks to stock DL in a 3-4. but that is not a universal rule.  Belichick and the Patriots typically placed a high value on DL in the 3-4.  Early in their dynasty, they had three first rounders in their starting DL-Seymour, Warren and Wilfork on the nose.  I know Meyer has a relationship with Belichick and perhaps he may adopt that philosophy.  . There are other teams who, while they have not gone as far as those Patriots teams to stock their 3-4 DL, has used 1st rounders to stock at least one of the three positions.  Houston used the 1st round pick for J.J. Watt.  In the 80s, Buffalo spent the #1 overal on Bruce Smith, while KC spent a high 1 on Neil Smith., and the Steelers drafted Heyward.   Again, I agree that Hamilton could play NT, but the new brass may not share that view.   Or perhaps out of concern about the weakness at DT in this draft class, they may spend the first on Barmore.

Might signing Trent Williams be a long shot?  Sure.  But I think if the 49ers are unable to retain him (a decent possibility), signing him should be our top free agent priority.  Doing so would free up our entire draft after Lawrence.  There would be no worry about a run on T above our pick at 25, eliminating the need to trade up, and increasing the chance a stud player at another position falls to us.  As for Taylor, I agree the team does not give up on him if giving up means cutting him.  But I could see the team looking to be more economical with its draft resources, being willing to draft a RT and possibly move Taylor inside to G, especially considering Bevell's time with the Seahawks was marked by big RTs being moved in to G (James Carpenter and, though Bevell was gone, most recently DJ Fluker). 

Would you gamble on O.J Howard?  He was a disappointment in Tampa and is now recuperating from a torn achilles.  But if healthy, he could have the athletic ability to possibly make a difference, and has gone through the early development phase you referenced.  Again, I know TEs can be found in the mid rounds, but that doesn't mean  you ignore a potentially better one earlier.  I am unpersuaded with Lawrence's lack use of the TE at Clemson.  It may or may not have been the result of a negative preference against the TE on his part.  In their scheme, the TE may have been mostly lower in the read progression.

IMO, to realize the goal of keeping as many picks as possible, signing Trent Williams is a must.  I do not think Villenueva has much left in the tank and accordingly would not be much of an upgrade over Robinson, if at all.  Not signing him would put the team in the position of hoping a group of T hungry teams picking above them somehow all pass on the guy they need to upgrade the position.  If the goal is to improve the protection for Trevor Lawrence, that is not a tenable strategy.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#13
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021, 01:06 PM by Bullseye.)

(02-02-2021, 12:41 PM)The Eleventh Doctor Wrote: Put the team in the best position to win.

If the value of Player A is greater than the Value of Players B + C (+ So on) then you make the trade.  If not, then you don't.  The question becomes is it better to have Player A than having both Player B and Player C (and so forth).

That's always the goal.

So what combination of possible players puts the team in the best position to win given where you think the players will fall in the draft and what you think this team's needs are?

(02-02-2021, 12:17 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 11:50 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: If we are switching to a 3-4 defense, I already have Hamilton penciled in as our starting NT. We started the season out pretty poorly in run defense, but once Abry Jones got hurt and Hamilton got more playing time as the starter, our run defense improved quite a bit and even looked competent. He even graded out among the best DT's in the league during that time. It was only after Hamilton got hurt, that the run defense fell to pieces. In my mind, I saw enough to make him the 2021 starting NT no matter what scheme we run. I don't see an immediate need for a DT, unless we are sticking with a 4-3 scheme. In that case, I'd probably address the position with the #33 pick, as I would definitely take a LT at #25. We simply cannot risk losing out on the best OT's, when we're bringing in a rookie QB who is the #1 pick and we have a massive hole at both OT spots. 

Personally, I think it's a long shot that we sign Trent Williams in free agency. I truly believe the Niners will do whatever they have to do to get him re-signed before free agency. This is an unusual year for me as I like multiple OT's in this class. Normally, I get fixated on one, maybe two, but this year there are several really good players who imo, would be significant upgrades over Cam Robinson. The problem is that there has been such a scarcity of talent at LT in the last few drafts and teams are gonna select these players rather quickly. With that said, I still believe one or more of the LT's I talked about will be on the board at #25, so I have no desire to trade up. I think we are in a very good position. As for RT, no matter how poorly Jawaan Taylor played last season, I don't think the team is gonna part with him just yet. I believe the best we can do is bring in some good competition for the starting RT spot. Luckily, Taylor set the bar so low, it should be fairly easy to find a better RT in the 3rd to 4th round area of the draft. 

As for TE, I'm in the minority. I just don't consider it a need that is big enough to spend a high round pick on. Plenty of good NFL teams can survive without outstanding play from the TE position. Buffalo is a good example. They have competent TE's, but they are nothing that stands out. Kansas City and Travis Kelce is more of an anomaly than what we normally see. Gronk is another example. I believe a good QB, like we're getting in Lawrence, can make decent TE's look much better than they would otherwise be. He didn't even utilize the TE that much at Clemson and he was outstanding. I know we haven't had great play for the TE spot for many years, but we've never really had consistently good QB play since Mark Brunell was here. I believe those two are directly related. As I also said, rookie TE's usually take a long while to develop. Would we really wanna spend that #33 pick on a TE that might take 2-3 years to come into his own or wouldn't we be better off spending that pick that on a defensive player that might make an impact in the first season or two? I'll take the defensive player every time. That doesn't mean I ignore the position. I make TE a priority in free agency. 

I'm not really a fan of waiting until #45 to take a CB, but if we stick with a 4-3 scheme, that is most likely going to be the scenario, since getting a 3 technique would be a must. This is a down year for the CB position and to be honest, the real impact guys are gonna either be gone or very thinned out by #45. I consider it a much bigger need than TE and I'd have to see who is left on the board at #33 to decide between CB and 3 technique (if we stuck to a 4-3 base.) I specifically would prefer a CB with size, as Caldwell brought in a bunch of smaller, mid to late round corners last season, which infuriated me. NFL WR's are getting bigger and faster and we need bigger, physical corners to match up with them. 

What I would do in round 2 on, is based solely what we intend to use as our base defense and who we sign in free agency, but no matter what, I wanna keep all or as many picks as we have now. We have a ton of needs. I specifically am against trading any first or second day picks. That is gonna be where we should find most of our starters.


Where would you play Parsons? We are stuck with Schobert, at least through next season and Jack is definitely penciled in as either the WLB or the other ILB, depending on whether we switch to a 3-4 scheme. You'd basically be trading up to provide depth at LB. We need immediate starters.
I'd play him in the middle and move Schobert to Sam in 4-3 packages.  I'm not gonna let a Schoberts contract affect me from getting a  elite LB.  I'm not drafting position lm, I'm drafting the best players.

Parsons is physically imposing.  But does he have the instincts to be a top LB yet?  It's not as if he has played the position his entire life.  He switched from RB, IIRC.  I've seen footage where he runs himself out of plays.  That limits his effectiveness.  Do you think it's simply a matter of coaching and experience, or does he truly lack the instincts for the position and will never really excel?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#14

Very good and intriguing post, and well thought out answers. My answer would be if there is someone that you believe can make an impact in a big way without giving up a kings ransom, get him. One thing that worries me about using all 11 picks on players is that we will have 11 players including a franchise QB reaching the end of their rookie contracts at the same time and looking for a big payday, plus whoever else is in a contract year which would mean we have to dump some seasoned vets for cap room. Presumably, not all 11 players will warrant a huge 2nd contract, and some of them that get a big contract between now and the end of this years rookie class will be allowed to leave via free agency/cut/traded so the front office has to be on their toes looking for creative ways to structure contracts so we dont end up in cap hell again and have to purge the roster again and end up being too young and inexperienced again...
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#15
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021, 02:23 PM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(02-02-2021, 12:17 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 11:50 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: If we are switching to a 3-4 defense, I already have Hamilton penciled in as our starting NT. We started the season out pretty poorly in run defense, but once Abry Jones got hurt and Hamilton got more playing time as the starter, our run defense improved quite a bit and even looked competent. He even graded out among the best DT's in the league during that time. It was only after Hamilton got hurt, that the run defense fell to pieces. In my mind, I saw enough to make him the 2021 starting NT no matter what scheme we run. I don't see an immediate need for a DT, unless we are sticking with a 4-3 scheme. In that case, I'd probably address the position with the #33 pick, as I would definitely take a LT at #25. We simply cannot risk losing out on the best OT's, when we're bringing in a rookie QB who is the #1 pick and we have a massive hole at both OT spots. 

Personally, I think it's a long shot that we sign Trent Williams in free agency. I truly believe the Niners will do whatever they have to do to get him re-signed before free agency. This is an unusual year for me as I like multiple OT's in this class. Normally, I get fixated on one, maybe two, but this year there are several really good players who imo, would be significant upgrades over Cam Robinson. The problem is that there has been such a scarcity of talent at LT in the last few drafts and teams are gonna select these players rather quickly. With that said, I still believe one or more of the LT's I talked about will be on the board at #25, so I have no desire to trade up. I think we are in a very good position. As for RT, no matter how poorly Jawaan Taylor played last season, I don't think the team is gonna part with him just yet. I believe the best we can do is bring in some good competition for the starting RT spot. Luckily, Taylor set the bar so low, it should be fairly easy to find a better RT in the 3rd to 4th round area of the draft. 

As for TE, I'm in the minority. I just don't consider it a need that is big enough to spend a high round pick on. Plenty of good NFL teams can survive without outstanding play from the TE position. Buffalo is a good example. They have competent TE's, but they are nothing that stands out. Kansas City and Travis Kelce is more of an anomaly than what we normally see. Gronk is another example. I believe a good QB, like we're getting in Lawrence, can make decent TE's look much better than they would otherwise be. He didn't even utilize the TE that much at Clemson and he was outstanding. I know we haven't had great play for the TE spot for many years, but we've never really had consistently good QB play since Mark Brunell was here. I believe those two are directly related. As I also said, rookie TE's usually take a long while to develop. Would we really wanna spend that #33 pick on a TE that might take 2-3 years to come into his own or wouldn't we be better off spending that pick that on a defensive player that might make an impact in the first season or two? I'll take the defensive player every time. That doesn't mean I ignore the position. I make TE a priority in free agency. 

I'm not really a fan of waiting until #45 to take a CB, but if we stick with a 4-3 scheme, that is most likely going to be the scenario, since getting a 3 technique would be a must. This is a down year for the CB position and to be honest, the real impact guys are gonna either be gone or very thinned out by #45. I consider it a much bigger need than TE and I'd have to see who is left on the board at #33 to decide between CB and 3 technique (if we stuck to a 4-3 base.) I specifically would prefer a CB with size, as Caldwell brought in a bunch of smaller, mid to late round corners last season, which infuriated me. NFL WR's are getting bigger and faster and we need bigger, physical corners to match up with them. 

What I would do in round 2 on, is based solely what we intend to use as our base defense and who we sign in free agency, but no matter what, I wanna keep all or as many picks as we have now. We have a ton of needs. I specifically am against trading any first or second day picks. That is gonna be where we should find most of our starters.


Where would you play Parsons? We are stuck with Schobert, at least through next season and Jack is definitely penciled in as either the WLB or the other ILB, depending on whether we switch to a 3-4 scheme. You'd basically be trading up to provide depth at LB. We need immediate starters.
I'd play him in the middle and move Schobert to Sam in 4-3 packages.  I'm not gonna let a Schoberts contract affect me from getting a  elite LB.  I'm not drafting position lm, I'm drafting the best players.

I don't really consider what I'm doing drafting for position, since we have so many positions that we need. I'm just anticipating which guys will be left by the time we pick how they would line up on my value board. As for Parson's, apparently you see way more value in him then I do. I just think this is a pretty weak linebacker class. I have Zaven Collins on top with a big dropoff to the next guy. I'm not saying Parson's is a bad player by any means. I just don't think he's gonna be impactful enough to give him a first round grade. I know someone will draft him in the first round, maybe even top 10, but I don't value him that high.

(02-02-2021, 12:23 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Passing on a great player because you fill the need to fill in a position is one of the reasons we are in a position we are in now

Agreed. I just don't see Parson's as a "great" player. I don't even think he's the best Linebacker in this class.

(02-02-2021, 12:41 PM)The Eleventh Doctor Wrote: Put the team in the best position to win.

If the value of Player A is greater than the Value of Players B + C (+ So on) then you make the trade.  If not, then you don't.  The question becomes is it better to have Player A than having both Player B and Player C (and so forth).

Agreed.
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#16

I agree with those who would NOT trade up in this draft. The only position worth giving up high draft picks (top 3 rounds) is quarterback, which thankfully the Jaguars won't need. As far as some of the suggestions stated above, these are my reactions:

1. Take an offensive tackle with pick 25. I agree with this and like the possibilities mentioned by O-Line Matters. Darrisaw, Jenkins and Radunz would be my 3 favorites. After reading about Radunz, I have a gut feeling that he is an Urban Meyer type of player and will be the choice with Jenkins a very close second. Eichenberg lacks the athletic ability of the others so his upside is limited, although he would be the most ready to play right away.

2. Everybody seems to love Trent Williams as the number 1 free agent target. Due to his age (I know he was top rated OT last season) and very high price tag, I would pass on him.

3. I love the idea of taking Freirmuth with pick 33 (Bullseye). I'll even go a step further and add Jonnu Smith in free agency. We all know it takes rookie tight ends time to develop and there's nothing wrong with having 2 very good tight ends on the roster. Smith will not break the bank and his acquisition will weaken a division opponent.

4. The team does need to draft a cornerback no later than pick 65. However, they should pay Sidney Jones to remain with the team. He played at a high level when healthy and he can be signed at a very reasonable price due to his history of injuries.

5. The defensive line outlook is hardest to project due to not knowing the scheme they will be playing. It wouldn't shock me if they consider signing Leonard Williams since he is still young and can play in any scheme. He will be expensive, but would be a valuable addition to the defensive line.

6. In addition to signing Jonnu Smith and possibly Leonard Williams, I'd definitely go aggressively after one of the many safeties available- John Johnson or Marcus Williams are my favorites. The other free agent to target
would be Jaylen Samuel. He has improved each year, is still young and has an Urban connection. He'd also cost much less than Godwin, Golliday or AROB.

7. Finally, I'd put the Franchise tag on Cam Robinson. I know he's not Tony Boselli, but I'd trust him much more than a rookie left tackle. Who knows, Robinson may finally meet the high expectations the Jaguars had of him after drafting him in the 2nd round. If he continues to be mediocre, the rookie they draft at pick 25 can replace him at some point this season (once they are ready).
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#17

I'm fine with trading up if it's for the right guy. If it's for someone who slipped a little like Mayfield/Jenkins/Dickerson etc then I'd do that deal. If it's for a TE hell no.
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#18

(02-02-2021, 12:55 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 11:50 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: If we are switching to a 3-4 defense, I already have Hamilton penciled in as our starting NT. We started the season out pretty poorly in run defense, but once Abry Jones got hurt and Hamilton got more playing time as the starter, our run defense improved quite a bit and even looked competent. He even graded out among the best DT's in the league during that time. It was only after Hamilton got hurt, that the run defense fell to pieces. In my mind, I saw enough to make him the 2021 starting NT no matter what scheme we run. I don't see an immediate need for a DT, unless we are sticking with a 4-3 scheme. In that case, I'd probably address the position with the #33 pick, as I would definitely take a LT at #25. We simply cannot risk losing out on the best OT's, when we're bringing in a rookie QB who is the #1 pick and we have a massive hole at both OT spots. 

Personally, I think it's a long shot that we sign Trent Williams in free agency. I truly believe the Niners will do whatever they have to do to get him re-signed before free agency. This is an unusual year for me as I like multiple OT's in this class. Normally, I get fixated on one, maybe two, but this year there are several really good players who imo, would be significant upgrades over Cam Robinson. The problem is that there has been such a scarcity of talent at LT in the last few drafts and teams are gonna select these players rather quickly. With that said, I still believe one or more of the LT's I talked about will be on the board at #25, so I have no desire to trade up. I think we are in a very good position. As for RT, no matter how poorly Jawaan Taylor played last season, I don't think the team is gonna part with him just yet. I believe the best we can do is bring in some good competition for the starting RT spot. Luckily, Taylor set the bar so low, it should be fairly easy to find a better RT in the 3rd to 4th round area of the draft. 

As for TE, I'm in the minority. I just don't consider it a need that is big enough to spend a high round pick on. Plenty of good NFL teams can survive without outstanding play from the TE position. Buffalo is a good example. They have competent TE's, but they are nothing that stands out. Kansas City and Travis Kelce is more of an anomaly than what we normally see. Gronk is another example. I believe a good QB, like we're getting in Lawrence, can make decent TE's look much better than they would otherwise be. He didn't even utilize the TE that much at Clemson and he was outstanding. I know we haven't had great play for the TE spot for many years, but we've never really had consistently good QB play since Mark Brunell was here. I believe those two are directly related. As I also said, rookie TE's usually take a long while to develop. Would we really wanna spend that #33 pick on a TE that might take 2-3 years to come into his own or wouldn't we be better off spending that pick that on a defensive player that might make an impact in the first season or two? I'll take the defensive player every time. That doesn't mean I ignore the position. I make TE a priority in free agency. 

I'm not really a fan of waiting until #45 to take a CB, but if we stick with a 4-3 scheme, that is most likely going to be the scenario, since getting a 3 technique would be a must. This is a down year for the CB position and to be honest, the real impact guys are gonna either be gone or very thinned out by #45. I consider it a much bigger need than TE and I'd have to see who is left on the board at #33 to decide between CB and 3 technique (if we stuck to a 4-3 base.) I specifically would prefer a CB with size, as Caldwell brought in a bunch of smaller, mid to late round corners last season, which infuriated me. NFL WR's are getting bigger and faster and we need bigger, physical corners to match up with them. 

What I would do in round 2 on, is based solely what we intend to use as our base defense and who we sign in free agency, but no matter what, I wanna keep all or as many picks as we have now. We have a ton of needs. I specifically am against trading any first or second day picks. That is gonna be where we should find most of our starters.

Regarding the 3-4, I would think when we draft DL would depend on the overarching philosophy the team adopts.  I know most teams use mid to late round picks to stock DL in a 3-4. but that is not a universal rule.  Belichick and the Patriots typically placed a high value on DL in the 3-4.  Early in their dynasty, they had three first rounders in their starting DL-Seymour, Warren and Wilfork on the nose.  I know Meyer has a relationship with Belichick and perhaps he may adopt that philosophy.  . There are other teams who, while they have not gone as far as those Patriots teams to stock their 3-4 DL, has used 1st rounders to stock at least one of the three positions.  Houston used the 1st round pick for J.J. Watt.  In the 80s, Buffalo spent the #1 overal on Bruce Smith, while KC spent a high 1 on Neil Smith., and the Steelers drafted Heyward.   Again, I agree that Hamilton could play NT, but the new brass may not share that view.   Or perhaps out of concern about the weakness at DT in this draft class, they may spend the first on Barmore.

Might signing Trent Williams be a long shot?  Sure.  But I think if the 49ers are unable to retain him (a decent possibility), signing him should be our top free agent priority.  Doing so would free up our entire draft after Lawrence.  There would be no worry about a run on T above our pick at 25, eliminating the need to trade up, and increasing the chance a stud player at another position falls to us.  As for Taylor, I agree the team does not give up on him if giving up means cutting him.  But I could see the team looking to be more economical with its draft resources, being willing to draft a RT and possibly move Taylor inside to G, especially considering Bevell's time with the Seahawks was marked by big RTs being moved in to G (James Carpenter and, though Bevell was gone, most recently DJ Fluker). 

Would you gamble on O.J Howard?  He was a disappointment in Tampa and is now recuperating from a torn achilles.  But if healthy, he could have the athletic ability to possibly make a difference, and has gone through the early development phase you referenced.  Again, I know TEs can be found in the mid rounds, but that doesn't mean  you ignore a potentially better one earlier.  I am unpersuaded with Lawrence's lack use of the TE at Clemson.  It may or may not have been the result of a negative preference against the TE on his part.  In their scheme, the TE may have been mostly lower in the read progression.

IMO, to realize the goal of keeping as many picks as possible, signing Trent Williams is a must.  I do not think Villenueva has much left in the tank and accordingly would not be much of an upgrade over Robinson, if at all.  Not signing him would put the team in the position of hoping a group of T hungry teams picking above them somehow all pass on the guy they need to upgrade the position.  If the goal is to improve the protection for Trevor Lawrence, that is not a tenable strategy.

I keep hearing about the weakness of the DT class and I just don't see it at all. I'd love to have guys like Dayvion Nixon, Christian Barmore, Jaylen Twyman, Jay Tufele, Levi Onwuzurike, Darius Stills, Cameron Sample, Bobby Brown III or Osa Odighizuwa on this team. I even have a late round sleeper from Charleston, Kenny Randall that I like a lot. IMO, this is a very good DT class. 


I totally agree about Trent Williams. If he becomes available, you do everything you can to sign him, but that still doesn't stop me from drafting an OT at #25. I believe we need 2 new OT's and this class is loaded with too many really good OT's to pass on one. Who knows the next time we'd be in a position to get a potential franchise OT? Personally, I don't think Taylor would benefit from moving inside. I just think he is a subpar player with heavy feet and bad leverage. I didn't like him when we drafted him and I like him even less now. In fact, I think Cam Robinson is a better OT and I can't wait to get rid of him. 

Maybe I would gamble on O.J. Howard. It would depend on the price tag. My first option is still to go hard after Jonnu Smith though. I know Bevell didn't seem to utilize the TE position that much during his time as the Seattle OC. We'll just have to see how things play out. 

I absolutely do not want Villanueva. In fact, when I see the available free agent OT class, I believe Williams is our only legitimate long term option unless some cap strapped team makes a surprise cut. That is why I believe drafting a LT is so crucial and thankfully, this is the deepest class I've seen in years. I place the LT position second only to QB, in terms of importance to the team. We have to get this one right.
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#19
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021, 03:01 PM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(02-02-2021, 02:23 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: I agree with those who would NOT trade up in this draft. The only position worth giving up high draft picks (top 3 rounds) is quarterback, which thankfully the Jaguars won't need. As far as some of the suggestions stated above, these are my reactions:

1. Take an offensive tackle with pick 25. I agree with this and like the possibilities mentioned by O-Line Matters. Darrisaw, Jenkins and Radunz would be my 3 favorites. After reading about Radunz, I have a gut feeling that he is an Urban Meyer type of player and will be the choice with Jenkins a very close second. Eichenberg lacks the athletic ability of the others so his upside is limited, although he would be the most ready to play right away.

2. Everybody seems to love Trent Williams as the number 1 free agent target. Due to his age (I know he was top rated OT last season) and very high price tag, I would pass on him.

3. I love the idea of taking Freirmuth with pick 33 (Bullseye). I'll even go a step further and add Jonnu Smith in free agency. We all know it takes rookie tight ends time to develop and there's nothing wrong with having 2 very good tight ends on the roster. Smith will not break the bank and his acquisition will weaken a division opponent.

4. The team does need to draft a cornerback no later than pick 65. However, they should pay Sidney Jones to remain with the team. He played at a high level when healthy and he can be signed at a very reasonable price due to his history of injuries.

5. The defensive line outlook is hardest to project due to not knowing the scheme they will be playing. It wouldn't shock me if they consider signing Leonard Williams since he is still young and can play in any scheme. He will be expensive, but would be a valuable addition to the defensive line.

6. In addition to signing Jonnu Smith and possibly Leonard Williams, I'd definitely go aggressively after one of the many safeties available- John Johnson or Marcus Williams are my favorites. The other free agent to target
would be Jaylen Samuel. He has improved each year, is still young and has an Urban connection. He'd also cost much less than Godwin, Golliday or AROB.

7. Finally, I'd put the Franchise tag on Cam Robinson. I know he's not Tony Boselli, but I'd trust him much more than a rookie left tackle. Who knows, Robinson may finally meet the high expectations the Jaguars had of him after drafting him in the 2nd round. If he continues to be mediocre, the rookie they draft at pick 25 can replace him at some point this season (once they are ready).

I wish I could say that, but I don't trust him at all and I trust Jawaan Taylor even less. What kills me is that I really wanted to draft Tristan Wirfs last season.
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#20
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021, 03:42 PM by Upper.)

There are like 8 OTs in this class that I would 100% trust to protect Tlaw over Cam from day 1. Well, I should say over Cam or Jawaan cause a few of them should be RTs.
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