(02-02-2021, 10:00 AM)Bullseye Wrote:

(02-02-2021, 02:37 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I don't trade up under any circumstances. We need to keep that #25 pick, because we must get a very good OT and they are gonna go very quickly. The elite OT's will go in round 1 and the good ones are gonna go pretty high in round 2. I know people are clamoring for help on the defensive interior, but that need will be determined by which scheme we end up running. If we stick with a 4-3 base, it remains a top need. If we switch to a 3-4 base, that need goes way down, because Hamilton would play the NT with Costin on the outside at 5 Technique and possibly, a re-signed Smoot at the other 5 technique position. Even if Smoot isn't re-signed, it's a lot easier to find 5 techniques later in the draft, than it is to find pass rushing 3 techniques. The level of that need should be determined when the team announces what kind of defense we're gonna run. IMO, a 3-4 base would be a lot more effective, given our current personnel and creates one less immediate need at the top end of the draft.

I also have the philosophy that I would never trade up in the draft, unless it's for a franchise QB or perhaps a franchise LT. Obviously, we're getting our QB with the first pick, so there is no need to trade up there. Penei Sewell is the trophy of the LT position in this draft and we'd have to somehow get ahead of the Bengals at #5 to get him. That isn't happening. I live in the Cincinnati area and everything I'm hearing is that the Bengals are locked in on him. The other OT's I'm interested in are Eichenberg, Darrisaw, Jenkins and Radunz. All could be gone by the #33 pick, but all should be gone by the end of the second round. Slater and Vera Tucker will likely be gone before we pick at #25 and that is fine by me, because I see them as OG's in the NFL. I'm also not high on Mayfield, because I don't like starting college RT's at LT in the NFL. I believe we can find competition for the RT spot later in the draft. I want nothing to do with Cosmi either. He's way too raw and is too up and down in pass protection. I don't see him as a major upgrade over Robinson. Leatherwood should definitely move inside to OG as well, but may be decent as a RT. He not an NFL LT though.

I also target a starting CB in round 2. We have Henderson on one side, but we must upgrade the other starting CB spot and we are most definitely going to have a new starting Nickel as well. That is a high priority. Safety is a HUGE issue and although there is no "elite" Safeties in this draft, the position is very deep in the middle rounds. I believe we could find a very good starter in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Hopefully, we address at least one Safety spot in free agency.

I am totally against trading up in any way for a TE. Typically, rookie TE's take a long while to develop. I believe this is one position that must be addressed in free agency. As I have said before, I believe Jonnu Smith would be a really good fit for our offense. If not and we are forced to draft one, there are several under the radar type players who can probably be drafted in the 4th or 5th rounds that we could develop.

As I said before, the DT position will be the key. Once we find out the defensive scheme, we can make a true draft plan, but we have a ton of needs and we'll need all of those first and second day picks to address those critical positions. If we are smart in drafting and are able to bring in some good free agents at crucial spots, we can turn this team around possibly one year faster than we anticipated.

To be clear, the above hypothetical presumes we kept the #25 overall pick and spent it on the Alabama NT, and that we are switching to a 3-4.  Admittedly, I did not make the part about the 3-4 clear.  Although a NT is key to having an effective 3-4 and I like Barmore as a player, I do not advocate taking him at 25.  But as long as we're talking 3-4, I think Hamilton, if healthy, has the build to play NT and the up field quickness and pass rush ability to play DE in that alignment.  More on the 3-4 later.

As for your no anti trade up philosophy, under this scenario, while nobody is saying the tackles likely to be available to us at the top of the 2nd would ever be mistaken for an in his prime Boselli, getting the right one could substantially upgrade the position for us and our QB.  History demonstrates most LTs are found in round 1, there have been rare instances where solid LTs have been found lower in the draft (Roos, Bakhtiari).  OI.  If, for whatever reason, the new brass decided to prioritize defense at 25, and the team was unwilling/unable to sign Trent Williams in free agency (another part of the hypothetical I left out), I would submit LT becomes even more of a priority.  Conversely, if we sign T. Williams, the hypothetical becomes largely moot in my mind.  Sub question:  are any of the Ts you like above potential franchise LTs in your mind, or at least worth trading up from 25 to ensure?  Consider there are a slew of teams picking right in front of us that have a potential need at LT (Was, Chi, Indy, Ten, Pit).

I understand your reticence to trade up for a TE.  In this scenario, a trade up for Friermuth may not be necessary.  The scenario posits acquiring the ability to address TE and LT.  We could take Friermuth at 33 in this scenario.  Though TEs are generally found in the middle rounds by good drafting teams, there is a drop off between Pitts and Friermuth, and then another dropoff between Friermuth and the other TEs.

We are in agreement about DB availability in this draft.  If we play our cards right, I think our draft would look something like this

1.  Lawrence
25.  LT
33.  Friermuth
45.  CB/NT
65.  IOL, WR, NT, LB, S
100.  IOL, NT, LB, S
124.  IOL, NT, LB, S, RB

If we are switching to a 3-4 defense, I already have Hamilton penciled in as our starting NT. We started the season out pretty poorly in run defense, but once Abry Jones got hurt and Hamilton got more playing time as the starter, our run defense improved quite a bit and even looked competent. He even graded out among the best DT's in the league during that time. It was only after Hamilton got hurt, that the run defense fell to pieces. In my mind, I saw enough to make him the 2021 starting NT no matter what scheme we run. I don't see an immediate need for a DT, unless we are sticking with a 4-3 scheme. In that case, I'd probably address the position with the #33 pick, as I would definitely take a LT at #25. We simply cannot risk losing out on the best OT's, when we're bringing in a rookie QB who is the #1 pick and we have a massive hole at both OT spots. 

Personally, I think it's a long shot that we sign Trent Williams in free agency. I truly believe the Niners will do whatever they have to do to get him re-signed before free agency. This is an unusual year for me as I like multiple OT's in this class. Normally, I get fixated on one, maybe two, but this year there are several really good players who imo, would be significant upgrades over Cam Robinson. The problem is that there has been such a scarcity of talent at LT in the last few drafts and teams are gonna select these players rather quickly. With that said, I still believe one or more of the LT's I talked about will be on the board at #25, so I have no desire to trade up. I think we are in a very good position. As for RT, no matter how poorly Jawaan Taylor played last season, I don't think the team is gonna part with him just yet. I believe the best we can do is bring in some good competition for the starting RT spot. Luckily, Taylor set the bar so low, it should be fairly easy to find a better RT in the 3rd to 4th round area of the draft. 

As for TE, I'm in the minority. I just don't consider it a need that is big enough to spend a high round pick on. Plenty of good NFL teams can survive without outstanding play from the TE position. Buffalo is a good example. They have competent TE's, but they are nothing that stands out. Kansas City and Travis Kelce is more of an anomaly than what we normally see. Gronk is another example. I believe a good QB, like we're getting in Lawrence, can make decent TE's look much better than they would otherwise be. He didn't even utilize the TE that much at Clemson and he was outstanding. I know we haven't had great play for the TE spot for many years, but we've never really had consistently good QB play since Mark Brunell was here. I believe those two are directly related. As I also said, rookie TE's usually take a long while to develop. Would we really wanna spend that #33 pick on a TE that might take 2-3 years to come into his own or wouldn't we be better off spending that pick that on a defensive player that might make an impact in the first season or two? I'll take the defensive player every time. That doesn't mean I ignore the position. I make TE a priority in free agency. 

I'm not really a fan of waiting until #45 to take a CB, but if we stick with a 4-3 scheme, that is most likely going to be the scenario, since getting a 3 technique would be a must. This is a down year for the CB position and to be honest, the real impact guys are gonna either be gone or very thinned out by #45. I consider it a much bigger need than TE and I'd have to see who is left on the board at #33 to decide between CB and 3 technique (if we stuck to a 4-3 base.) I specifically would prefer a CB with size, as Caldwell brought in a bunch of smaller, mid to late round corners last season, which infuriated me. NFL WR's are getting bigger and faster and we need bigger, physical corners to match up with them. 

What I would do in round 2 on, is based solely what we intend to use as our base defense and who we sign in free agency, but no matter what, I wanna keep all or as many picks as we have now. We have a ton of needs. I specifically am against trading any first or second day picks. That is gonna be where we should find most of our starters.

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(02-02-2021, 11:43 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:

(02-02-2021, 11:24 AM)Bullseye Wrote: So who would have to be there for you to make the move?

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So who would have to be on the board in order for you to make that move?

Not sure they are quite in such dire straits as us.

They had huge leads in many of their games, only to bloqw those leads like they did in the Super Bowl.

But if you like, you could switch the hypothetical to Dallas' pick instead of Atlanta's.

Jerry Jones likes to pretend he's smart by trading down a bit.

Pitts or if Waddle falls because of injury.  If we don't get a DT in FA i would also think about it for Barmore.  Michael Parsons would be another, highly likely any of them fall but its happened before

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Sertain Jr would be another I'd move up for

Where would you play Parsons? We are stuck with Schobert, at least through next season and Jack is definitely penciled in as either the WLB or the other ILB, depending on whether we switch to a 3-4 scheme. You'd basically be trading up to provide depth at LB. We need immediate starters.

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