(03-28-2021, 08:35 AM)Bullseye Wrote:

(03-28-2021, 06:44 AM)s oSneakers Wrote: Talk about showing your cards............there's no guarantee Fields will even be available!  They have to be willing to take either him or Wilson with that move.  The Jet's #2 just became a lot more intriguing.

To me, the only rational explanation for the move is they have strong positive convictions about three QBs in this draft.  If they were targeting one particular QB, getting up to #3 guaranteed nothing in terms of their availability, as you pointed out. 

As for who is worth such a move, fields may not have been among their top three QBs.  There is speculation that either Lance or Jones are the 49ers intended target.

Because they already have an established QB in Garoppolo, the 49ers were not desperate for a new starter this year.  Because of this, they could get a physically gifted but raw and inexperienced guy like Lance and sit him for a year behind Garoppolo.  Then after the apprenticeship, they could trade away the vet and have Lance for the next few years.

As for Jones, Shanahan had a guy like him in Matt Ryan when he was OC in Atlanta.

But most on these boards who have chimed in have indicated in one form or another the price the 49ers paid was too steep.

How much would you expect to pay in terms of draft choice compensation to trade up for a QB?

Consider in 2001, Atlanta sent the 5th overall pick, their 2001 3rd round pick, their 2002 2nd round pick and KR Tim Dwight to move up to #1 overall for QB Michael Vick.

Consider also in 2004, basically to move up from 4 to 1, the Giants gave up two 1sts (2004-Phillip Rivers and 2005), a 3rd round pick and a 5th round pick.

2017 saw three teams trade up in the draft for QBs in the first round:

• Chicago traded the #3 overall, #67, and #111 to the 49ers to move up one spot for Mitchell Trubisky.
  
• Kansas City traded the #27 overall pick, a 2017 3rd round pick, and a 2018 1st round pick to move to 10th overall for Mahomes
  
• Houston sent a 2018 first round pick to move up from 25 to 12 for Deshaun Watson
  

In 2018, to move from 6th overall to 3rd, the Jets sent the Colts the first round pick (#6) and three 2nd round picks-two in 2018 and one in 2019).

Also in 2018, to move from 12 to 7, the Bills gave up their first and two 2nd round picks (53 and 56-after a lot of other maneuvering to get those picks) for Josh Allen.

It seems that if you are going to move up double digit spots or move into the top spot, you should expect to give up at least two #1s.  But the 49ers moved up from 12 to 3 and gave up 3 #1s and a 3rd.  It would seem as though they overpaid, but trade value charts don't necessarily drive the costs...it's the demand.

I think because there is a glut of QBs at the top of this draft, there has been more chatter about trading up into those top spots, which drives up the cost to move into those spots.

I think if Carolina or Denver were to move up to #2, though they are not moving up as far as San Francisco did, they will end up paying more now that the market was set for the #3 pick and the #6 pick.

You're right, the have to be sold on at least 3 QBs to make that kind of move.  That being said, does it make sense to pay that much, then sit the guy for a year?  

I don't think the early first round  trading is close to done.  The Jets are the wild card, are they happy with Darnold?  For that matter, are the Lions convinced Goff will develop?  Denver needs a QB and Carolina is desperate.  

I can see the #6 changing hands again.  The Dolphins could be make out like bandits in this draft!  Drop back a couple more spots and still get their #1 target.  Could as many as 5 QBs go in the first 9 picks?

One last thought.  What if the Dolphins aren't sold on Tagovailoa.  They could be high on Lance or Jones, but expect him to be 4th or 5th QB taken, which most experts and mocks predict.  If they trade back to 8th or 9th and take a QB, it will be the rope-a-dope of the century.

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