I bet Gene Smith ignored the scouts when he drafted a punter in the third round.

.... and passing on Russell Wilson to draft Bryan Anger 


This was a good draft below -- lol.  Definitely not BAP (4 defensive linemen and 2 kick returners) ...... 1 player from a Big 5 Conference and that was mediocre Cal.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2010 Draft Class
1 - 10 - DT - Tyson Alualu - California
3 - 74 - DT -  D'Anthony Smith - Louisiana Tech
5a -  143 - DE - Larry Hart - Central Arkansas
5b* - 153 - DE - Austen Lane - Murray State
6a - 180 - RB/KR - Deji Karim - Southern Illinois
6b* - 203 - RS/CB - Scotty McGee - James Madison

I wish D'Anthony Smith didn't get injured. I thought he was going to be pretty good. 

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You have to wonder if Belichick would be a hall of fame coach without Tom Brady. Everyone says what a genius he is. IDK... I am not convinced.

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"If you always do what you've always done, You'll always get what you always got"

You have to wonder if  Belichick would be a hall of fame coach without Tom Brady. Everyone says what a genius he is. IDK... I am not convinced.

Boycooooooot

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Just looking over that 2008 draft again. That was a historically bad draft, even for the Jaguars. If I'm not mistaken, the rookies selected spent a COMBINED total of 5 years in Jacksonville.

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I haven't researched it but I am willing to be that at least half of all first round picks ever made were considered flops. The truth is, no matter how much you analyze a good part of the draft is Luck. I have seen guys the "draft gurus" and media pump up as "can't miss prospects" flat out flop. It happens every year.

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I haven't researched it but I am willing to be that at least half of all first round picks ever made were considered flops.  The truth is, no matter how much you analyze a good part of the draft is Luck.  I have seen guys the "draft gurus" and media pump up as "can't miss prospects" flat out flop.  It happens every year.

Former Washington and Houston GM Charley Casserly frequently says the percentage of players that are starters in the league drops by round.  He repeated this recently, and I can't fully remember it, but I think he was saying a second rounder has a 50% chance of becoming a starter, while a 5th or 6th rounder has maybe a 9% chance.  I have looked for a link reflecting these percentages many times but have never found it.  If I find it I will post.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I haven't researched it but I am willing to be that at least half of all first round picks ever made were considered flops.  The truth is, no matter how much you analyze a good part of the draft is Luck.  I have seen guys the "draft gurus" and media pump up as "can't miss prospects" flat out flop.  It happens every year.

Former Washington and Houston GM Charley Casserly frequently says the percentage of players that are starters in the league drops by round.  He repeated this recently, and I can't fully remember it, but I think he was saying a second rounder has a 50% chance of becoming a starter, while a 5th or 6th rounder has maybe a 9% chance.  I have looked for a link reflecting these percentages many times but have never found it.  If I find it I will post.

I'm genuinely awed by your encyclopedic football knowledge and recall, Bullseye.

The NFL Draft: Shotgun Marriages v. Marriages "For Love" – The Sports Economist

"If Phil Miller's Saturday post on the NFL draft is Day 1, then here is a Day 2 examination. NFL writers/analysts love to speculate on draft picks, although a bit of a "draft-grading backlash" has emerged (See PFT on Meaningless Draft Grades.) A particular study of the draft that amounts to more than just hot air is cited by former NFL GM Charley Casserly in a post on Reiss's Pieces (part of Boston.com) and draws from a 10-year study evaluating drafts after four years had passed. Casserly describes the percentage of draft picks, by round, that wind up as NFL starters:

First round – 75 percent
Second round – 50 percent
Third round – 30 percent
Fourth round – 25 percent
Fifth round – 20 percent
Sixth round – 9 percent
Seventh round – 9 percent
The NFL draft is an example of a market "design mechanism" -- the particular decision rights, sequences, and incentives that determine choices and transactions. A subsection of this literature focuses on matching mechanisms -- including two-sided matching like marriage, medical residencies, or the free-agent versus one-sided like the draft (see Google Scholar search for a sampling)..."

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I found the following article.  This doesn't answer the question of whether a player becomes a starter, but it does give information about how many players drafted in each round are on the team that drafted them, by year. 

Link

Quote:  

I decided to go back over a decade and looked at each and every draft pick and tracked whether they were with their team each year for up to five years. I took all this data and created a complete table where I was able to see what percentage of players were on the teams that drafted them at the start of their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th years. By creating this table we are able to get an idea of how long we can expect a given player to stay with the team that drafted them on average.

To read the table the rows represent the round the players were drafted in while the columns show what percentage of players were on the team after that specific year. For example 96.8% of all 2nd round picks are on the team's active roster that drafted them at the start of year one but only 83.9% at the start of year three.

Round Year 1... Year 2...Year 3... Year 4... Year 5
1........ 99.7%.. 93.5% ..83.9% ...77.4%...71.0%
2........ 96.8%.. 96.1%.. 83.9%... 74.2%...41.9%
3........ 96.9%.. 75.1%.. 62.5%... 37.5%... 18.8%
4........ 91.4%.. 74.3%.. 54.3%... 34.3%... 17.2%
5........ 81.1%.. 56.8%.. 37.8%... 24.3%... 16.2%
6........ 70.2%.. 57.5%.. 35.3%... 20.9%... 10.6%
7.........58.3%.. 45.8%.. 31.3%... 21.7%... 16.7%

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Here's another great article on the subject:  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015...c87f797495

Quote: 

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

Round   Percent
1          29.9
2          17.5
3          12.6
4          10.8
5           6.4
6           4.9
7           4.2
Undrafted    13.6

---

Here's another great article on the subject:  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015...c87f797495

Quote: 

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

Round   Percent
1          29.9
2          17.5
3          12.6
4          10.8
5           6.4
6           4.9
7           4.2
Undrafted    13.6

I'm assuming the 13.6% got a fire lit under them since they were overlooked in rounds 5-7..

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It's a danger with "coach-centric" as described by Khan and the Jags when Meyer was hired.  The scouting department is a valuable and expensive tool that should be consulted throughout the personnel acquisition process.  I do believe Meyer does these "deep dives" into players as mentioned, not solely to call a coach with a relationship.

On a side note, Bill Belichick, in his 7 seasons as a head coach without Tom Brady on a team (5 in Cleveland and 2 in NE) is 48 wins and 64 losses, with 6 of the 7 seasons being a losing year.  I know its an argument for another time and place, but I don't hold Belichick and the Pats organizationally in as high regard as I do Brady.

Very this. Coaches and players alike looked better when Tawmy was on the field. Manning did the same thing. Remember Julius Thomas? woof.

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You have to wonder if  Belichick would be a hall of fame coach without Tom Brady. Everyone says what a genius he is. IDK... I am not convinced.

Boycooooooot

Dude, move on. That was 3-5 QB ago.

---

Here's another great article on the subject:  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015...c87f797495

Quote: 

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

Round   Percent
1          29.9
2          17.5
3          12.6
4          10.8
5           6.4
6           4.9
7           4.2
Undrafted    13.6

I'm assuming the 13.6% got a fire lit under them since they were overlooked in rounds 5-7..

I think the reason there are more undrafted free agents than 7th rounders that become starters is because there are more undrafted free agents.  Each team is taking 1 seventh rounder, and 10-12 undrafted free agents.

---

Here's another great article on the subject:  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015...c87f797495

Quote: 

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

Round   Percent
1          29.9
2          17.5
3          12.6
4          10.8
5           6.4
6           4.9
7           4.2
Undrafted    13.6

I'm assuming the 13.6% got a fire lit under them since they were overlooked in rounds 5-7..

That, or GMs use their late picks to swing for the fences rather than go for the easy base hit, and end up striking out from time to time. (IE, we know we have a good shot to land James Robinson as a UDFA, so let's darft Jake Luton, Tyler Davis and Chris Claybrooks with our picks instead.) Robinson will be on the team this year, and of the others, Claybrooks may be the only one who survives training camp.

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I'm assuming the 13.6% got a fire lit under them since they were overlooked in rounds 5-7..

That, or GMs use their late picks to swing for the fences rather than go for the easy base hit, and end up striking out from time to time. (IE, we know we have a good shot to land James Robinson as a UDFA, so let's darft Jake Luton, Tyler Davis and Chris Claybrooks with our picks instead.) Robinson will be on the team this year, and of the others, Claybrooks may be the only one who survives training camp.

No, it's just pure numbers.  Each team with 10-12 undrafted free agents vs. one 7th round pick.

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homebiscuit

Former Washington and Houston GM Charley Casserly frequently says the percentage of players that are starters in the league drops by round.  He repeated this recently, and I can't fully remember it, but I think he was saying a second rounder has a 50% chance of becoming a starter, while a 5th or 6th rounder has maybe a 9% chance.  I have looked for a link reflecting these percentages many times but have never found it.  If I find it I will post.

I

'm genuinely awed by your encyclopedic football knowledge and recall, Bullseye.

The NFL Draft: Shotgun Marriages v. Marriages "For Love" – The Sports Economist

"If Phil Miller's Saturday post on the NFL draft is Day 1, then here is a Day 2 examination. NFL writers/analysts love to speculate on draft picks, although a bit of a "draft-grading backlash" has emerged (See PFT on Meaningless Draft Grades.) A particular study of the draft that amounts to more than just hot air is cited by former NFL GM Charley Casserly in a post on Reiss's Pieces (part of Boston.com) and draws from a 10-year study evaluating drafts after four years had passed. Casserly describes the percentage of draft picks, by round, that wind up as NFL starters:

First round – 75 percent
Second round – 50 percent
Third round – 30 percent
Fourth round – 25 percent
Fifth round – 20 percent
Sixth round – 9 percent
Seventh round – 9 percent
The NFL draft is an example of a market "design mechanism" -- the particular decision rights, sequences, and incentives that determine choices and transactions. A subsection of this literature focuses on matching mechanisms -- including two-sided matching like marriage, medical residencies, or the free-agent versus one-sided like the draft (see Google Scholar search for a sampling)..."

I appreciate the compliment, but I think in this instance you overestimate me.

There are several reasons I happen to recall this.  First, after years of watching football, I had the sense the odds of a player making a team or being a starter diminished by round, but I couldn't quantify it by percentages.  Casserly was the first analyst or NFL figure I had seen quantify it in such a manner and when I first saw it, it stuck with me.  It stuck with me because every year, the debates on the board make the subject relevant.  I've wanted to utilize this numerous times over the years.  Furthermore, I religiously watch NFL Network.  Often when I post, the TV is on as background noise.  The other day, Casserly was on, and he referenced the same point.  So when I posted it this time, it was fresh after annual reinforcement over the years.

But thanks a million for that link and the compliment.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

That, or GMs use their late picks to swing for the fences rather than go for the easy base hit, and end up striking out from time to time. (IE, we know we have a good shot to land James Robinson as a UDFA, so let's darft Jake Luton, Tyler Davis and Chris Claybrooks with our picks instead.) Robinson will be on the team this year, and of the others, Claybrooks may be the only one who survives training camp.

No, it's just pure numbers.  Each team with 10-12 undrafted free agents vs. one 7th round pick.

That's definitely the biggest reason.  Another consideration is that UDFAs get to pick the team they sign with, which may increase the chances they are a good fit, and would definitely increase the chances they're happy to be there.

---

Here's another great article on the subject:  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015...c87f797495

Quote: 

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

Round   Percent
1          29.9
2          17.5
3          12.6
4          10.8
5           6.4
6           4.9
7           4.2
Undrafted    13.6

Great articles, Marty.

Thanks a million for posting.

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I'm assuming the 13.6% got a fire lit under them since they were overlooked in rounds 5-7..

I think the reason there are more undrafted free agents than 7th rounders that become starters is because there are more undrafted free agents.  Each team is taking 1 seventh rounder, and 10-12 undrafted free agents.

I think another factor is that undrafted free agents, as free agents, have the ability to pick the team they for which they will try out-at least greater than the 7th round pick.  This means they can examine the rosters and pick the team that is weakest at their particular position and sign with them, instead of being lowly drafted to a team that is more stacked at their position.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Here's another great article on the subject:  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015...c87f797495

Quote: 

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

Round   Percent
1          29.9
2          17.5
3          12.6
4          10.8
5           6.4
6           4.9
7           4.2
Undrafted    13.6

Great articles, Marty.

Thanks a million for posting.

Nice information, it really shows how important our round 1 to 4 picks are. Drafting is an inexact science and may involve a bit of luck.   All teams miss on selections we should set our expectations accordingly.  It is hard to fathom deciding what players will continue to develop and sacrifice once they have earned more money than you or I will in our lifetimes.  Also, we will never know for sure if a GM followed or did not follow the scouting information.  Maybe from what Urban has been saying is he plans to use all the scouting information as a base tempered by people who actually know the guys.

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A new broom always sweeps clean.

Every year, this board goes through the BAP vs needs debate in the effort to illustrate the best way to draft-or at least avoid draft mistakes.  Invariably, the discussion turns to how the most successful teams do things.  In those discussions, New England is often hailed as the model to emulate, and for good reason.  They've now been to more Super Bowls than any other team, and they have won six Super Bowls over the last two decades.

But they are far from perfect.

Belichick is notorious for being unable to successfully draft WRs.

This article may give us some insight as to why...at least in one instance.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...eal-harry/


According to the article, Belichick ignored the scouts' recommendations as it pertained to available WRs in the 2019 draft.  The scouts were pushing for Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown.  Belichick took N'Keal Harry, in part because of his relationship with Harry''s coach and a non workout visit.  In fairness, teams rely upon these relationships all the time.  Shula relied in a relationship with Pitt's coach in deciding to draft Marino in the 1983 draft when rumors or drug use ran rampant and caused him to drop.

The Patriots are far from the only team where this dynamic of ignoring the scouts played out.  I can remember back in the 1980s, Dallas scouts recommended the team draft DL's Charles Mann and Bill Pickel, and Landry supposedly ignored them, too.  Mann and Pickel became two of the better DL of the 80s, while the Dallas DL continued its deterioration from dominant group to aging and decrepit until Jimmy Johnson was able to infuse talent into the unit in the 1990s.

At least during the free agency period, Meyer indicated the players they would pursue would be players he and his coaches had first hand knowledge about.  While the draft has a different dynamic in that none of the players have played in the league before, the dynamic also has its share of similarities due to Covid based restrictions on the combine, visits and workouts.  Meyer was a college coach as recently as three years ago and has been a college football analyst since then, he may be tempted to keep his own counsel when it comes to taking players this year, or rely more heavily on his relationships with coaches to sort the wheat from the chaff.

But I think completely disregarding the scouts' findings might be a mistake.

The scouts are a resource he should definitely utilize as he works to replenish the roster.

Has no one seen Moneyball?

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