It happens every year.

In advocating a particular draft strategy, fans and experts alike will examine need to help determine where a team will or will not or should/should not go.



However, if Baalke is true to his word that he is a BAP drafter and that he will draft irrespective of need, it may be inevitable that some needs will not be addressed adequately, while positions of lesser needs may get draft attention.

So to the extent a team coming off a 1-15 season could have positions of relative strength, what positions would you not mind or object to the team drafting, especially in the early rounds?

If the team "drafted to strength," under what circumstances would you find it acceptable?  What players would you want at the position?

Under what circumstances would you NOT want these strengths to be bolstered further?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

It happens every year.

In advocating a particular draft strategy, fans and experts alike will examine need to help determine where a team will or will not or should/skould not go.



However, if Baalke is true to his word that he is a BAP drafter and that he will draft irrespective of need, it may be inevitable that some needs will not be addressed adequately, while positions of lesser needs may get draft attention.

So to the extent a team coming off a 1-15 season could have positions of relative strength, what positions would you not mind or object to the team drafting, especially in the early rounds?

If the team "drafted to strength," under what circumstances would you find it acceptable?  What players would you want at the position?

Under what circumstances would you NOT want these strengths to be bolstered further?

This is a great post/question. 

First, I would say the lines are always an acceptable surplus. With the O-line, the company line is that it's a strength, but we all know tackle is a weakness. So I would be OK with more tackles or a guard. Jenkins or Darrisaw (have to trade up) would be more than OK to me. 

Another acceptable surplus would be CB. CJ Henderson in year two, Griffin, and Sydney Jones are a good trio, but I think another blue chip corner could really bolster the sub packages and give the weak pass rush time to get home. Even if another edge rusher is drafted, he'll need time to develop just like Chasson and Allen.
If Caleb Farley falls due to his back surgery, I would love for him to be the pick. 

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"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

Edge Rusher!

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I find it difficult to say that a 1-15 team has any strengths. Therefore, there are no positions I'd pass on if the player is clearly the BAP at the time of the selection. That being said, it is very unlikely I'd take a player in rounds 1 or 2 at wide receiver or running back since these are positions of relative strength for the Jaguars. Once round 3 begins, however, I wouldn't hesitate to grab a Dynami Brown at receiver or Michael Carter at running back if I believed they were the BAP at that time.

The one position I would "reach" for is tight end due to that being the team's greatest weakness. I'm clearly in the minority by wanting them to select Freirmuth at pick 33. That being said, if Eichenberg, Moehrig or Collins also happen to be on the board at that time, I'd have to select them over Freirmuth. If that did happen, I'd have to either take Brevin Jordan or Hunter Long in round 3 or trade a 4th for Njoku. Although I used the term "reach" for Freirmuth, that is based only on his pre-draft rankings which typically make him a mid-2nd rounder. Personally, I believe Freirmuth will prove to be more than worthy of the 33rd pick.

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I find it difficult to say that a 1-15 team has any strengths. Therefore, there are no positions I'd pass on if the player is clearly the BAP at the time of the selection. That being said, it is very unlikely I'd take a player in rounds 1 or 2 at wide receiver or running back since these are positions of relative strength for the Jaguars. Once round 3 begins, however, I wouldn't hesitate to grab a Dynami Brown at receiver or Michael Carter at running back if I believed they were the BAP at that time.

The one position I would "reach" for is tight end due to that being the team's greatest weakness. I'm clearly in the minority by wanting them to select Freirmuth at pick 33. That being said, if Eichenberg, Moehrig or Collins also happen to be on the board at that time, I'd have to select them over Freirmuth. If that did happen, I'd have to either take Brevin Jordan or Hunter Long in round 3 or trade a 4th for Njoku. Although I used the term "reach" for Freirmuth, that is based only on his pre-draft rankings which typically make him a mid-2nd rounder. Personally, I believe Freirmuth will prove to be more than worthy of the 33rd pick.

Dynami is an excellent name for a WR, just as Slaughter is an excellent name for a LB. For QB, I want one named Alpha or Cannon.

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"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

I find it difficult to say that a 1-15 team has any strengths. Therefore, there are no positions I'd pass on if the player is clearly the BAP at the time of the selection. That being said, it is very unlikely I'd take a player in rounds 1 or 2 at wide receiver or running back since these are positions of relative strength for the Jaguars. Once round 3 begins, however, I wouldn't hesitate to grab a Dynami Brown at receiver or Michael Carter at running back if I believed they were the BAP at that time.

The one position I would "reach" for is tight end due to that being the team's greatest weakness. I'm clearly in the minority by wanting them to select Freirmuth at pick 33. That being said, if Eichenberg, Moehrig or Collins also happen to be on the board at that time, I'd have to select them over Freirmuth. If that did happen, I'd have to either take Brevin Jordan or Hunter Long in round 3 or trade a 4th for Njoku. Although I used the term "reach" for Freirmuth, that is based only on his pre-draft rankings which typically make him a mid-2nd rounder. Personally, I believe Freirmuth will prove to be more than worthy of the 33rd pick.

How does Freirmuth compare to past TE prospects with measurables? What are some pro comparisons? 

I hate the idea of reaching for any player just because it's a glaring need. That's how you end up with a mediocre/poor roster. The Jaguars aren't going to the Super Bowl and probably not the playoffs next year even if TE is filled. Why not wait another year if there's a better BAP in round 2 or 3 than the available TE?

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"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

When you are a 3-4 team, you have to keep drafting the tweeners so you can run it effectively. Speed, Speed and more speed.

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The Khan Years

Patience, Persistence, and Piss Poor General Managers.

It happens every year.

In advocating a particular draft strategy, fans and experts alike will examine need to help determine where a team will or will not or should/skould not go.



However, if Baalke is true to his word that he is a BAP drafter and that he will draft irrespective of need, it may be inevitable that some needs will not be addressed adequately, while positions of lesser needs may get draft attention.

So to the extent a team coming off a 1-15 season could have positions of relative strength, what positions would you not mind or object to the team drafting, especially in the early rounds?

If the team "drafted to strength," under what circumstances would you find it acceptable?  What players would you want at the position?

Under what circumstances would you NOT want these strengths to be bolstered further?

This is a great post/question. 

First, I would say the lines are always an acceptable surplus. With the O-line, the company line is that it's a strength, but we all know tackle is a weakness. So I would be OK with more tackles or a guard. Jenkins or Darrisaw (have to trade up) would be more than OK to me. 

Another acceptable surplus would be CB. CJ Henderson in year two, Griffin, and Sydney Jones are a good trio, but I think another blue chip corner could really bolster the sub packages and give the weak pass rush time to get home. Even if another edge rusher is drafted, he'll need time to develop just like Chasson and Allen.
If Caleb Farley falls due to his back surgery, I would love for him to be the pick. 

I don't know that I would consider either line a strength, though Meyer has stated this isn't a blow it up line, and the team spent money to get numbers at the D-Line.  I certainly wouldn't object to a Tackle early on.  Though I might be a little disappointed, I could understand a Barmore pick too. 

If anything, I'd say WR is our strongest position at the moment.  But even I would not object to a WR being taken at the position relatively early, though in fairness, I think better value could be found a little later.

I really like James Robinson, but even with him, I think Etienne would be a tremendous asset.

Farley is an interesting conundrum.  As players, I like him and Newsome.  Because CB is a premium position, I think I could be okay bringing in another CB.  I made the argument  few years back when we had Ramsey and Bouye that there was a strong argument to be made for bringing in Lattimore, and that logic would apply now.  But given Meyer's stated beliefs that you build a defense from the line back, the team would add a DL before another CB given equally ranked players at the positions.  Still, I would hope the Jaguars got a sterling medical prognosis for Farley before pulling the trigger on him.  I still cringe when I think of back injuries that shortened the careers of Michael Cheever and Charles Haley (I know he was never a Jaguar).

We should be cautious when it comes to the edge rushers.  The only ones that really excite me early on are Ojulari and Paye.  I understand there would be a lot of resistance to a pick like that, considering two of our last three first rounders were utilized at the position.

I guess the only thing at the moment that would really irritate me is taking another QB after we took TL.  As long as we're getting good value and good players, and upgrading the team, I could understand just about any position, though my early preference would be for the tools that would help Trevor Lawrence the most.

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Edge Rusher!

Are there guys you like at the position?  How high would you take an edge rusher?

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I find it difficult to say that a 1-15 team has any strengths. Therefore, there are no positions I'd pass on if the player is clearly the BAP at the time of the selection. That being said, it is very unlikely I'd take a player in rounds 1 or 2 at wide receiver or running back since these are positions of relative strength for the Jaguars. Once round 3 begins, however, I wouldn't hesitate to grab a Dynami Brown at receiver or Michael Carter at running back if I believed they were the BAP at that time.

The one position I would "reach" for is tight end due to that being the team's greatest weakness. I'm clearly in the minority by wanting them to select Freirmuth at pick 33. That being said, if Eichenberg, Moehrig or Collins also happen to be on the board at that time, I'd have to select them over Freirmuth. If that did happen, I'd have to either take Brevin Jordan or Hunter Long in round 3 or trade a 4th for Njoku. Although I used the term "reach" for Freirmuth, that is based only on his pre-draft rankings which typically make him a mid-2nd rounder. Personally, I believe Freirmuth will prove to be more than worthy of the 33rd pick.

Although I am not a huge Hunter Long fan, I pretty much agree with this.

I am an Etienne fan, though, and think he would be a big help to TL.  But he would be the only RB I would be okay with before the 3rd round.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I find it difficult to say that a 1-15 team has any strengths. Therefore, there are no positions I'd pass on if the player is clearly the BAP at the time of the selection. That being said, it is very unlikely I'd take a player in rounds 1 or 2 at wide receiver or running back since these are positions of relative strength for the Jaguars. Once round 3 begins, however, I wouldn't hesitate to grab a Dynami Brown at receiver or Michael Carter at running back if I believed they were the BAP at that time.

The one position I would "reach" for is tight end due to that being the team's greatest weakness. I'm clearly in the minority by wanting them to select Freirmuth at pick 33. That being said, if Eichenberg, Moehrig or Collins also happen to be on the board at that time, I'd have to select them over Freirmuth. If that did happen, I'd have to either take Brevin Jordan or Hunter Long in round 3 or trade a 4th for Njoku. Although I used the term "reach" for Freirmuth, that is based only on his pre-draft rankings which typically make him a mid-2nd rounder. Personally, I believe Freirmuth will prove to be more than worthy of the 33rd pick.

Dynami is an excellent name for a WR, just as Slaughter is an excellent name for a LB. For QB, I want one named Alpha or Cannon.

I think his name is "Dyami" like "Miami."  But I absolutely agree I would not hesitate to take him at the top of the 3rd, especially if we haven't already addressed the position before then.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I find it difficult to say that a 1-15 team has any strengths. Therefore, there are no positions I'd pass on if the player is clearly the BAP at the time of the selection. That being said, it is very unlikely I'd take a player in rounds 1 or 2 at wide receiver or running back since these are positions of relative strength for the Jaguars. Once round 3 begins, however, I wouldn't hesitate to grab a Dynami Brown at receiver or Michael Carter at running back if I believed they were the BAP at that time.

The one position I would "reach" for is tight end due to that being the team's greatest weakness. I'm clearly in the minority by wanting them to select Freirmuth at pick 33. That being said, if Eichenberg, Moehrig or Collins also happen to be on the board at that time, I'd have to select them over Freirmuth. If that did happen, I'd have to either take Brevin Jordan or Hunter Long in round 3 or trade a 4th for Njoku. Although I used the term "reach" for Freirmuth, that is based only on his pre-draft rankings which typically make him a mid-2nd rounder. Personally, I believe Freirmuth will prove to be more than worthy of the 33rd pick.

How does Freirmuth compare to past TE prospects with measurables? What are some pro comparisons? 

I hate the idea of reaching for any player just because it's a glaring need. That's how you end up with a mediocre/poor roster. The Jaguars aren't going to the Super Bowl and probably not the playoffs next year even if TE is filled. Why not wait another year if there's a better BAP in round 2 or 3 than the available TE?

People have given him the nickname of Baby Gronk, which is unfortunate because Gronkowski is an all time great.  Besides, the last guy I remember being called anything with "baby"in it was Mike Pearson, who was called Baby Boselli.  Let's just say the name did not fit.

I don't know that I have a ready made comparison to Friermuth because to me he resembles many dependable TEs.  Lindy's compared him to Kyle Rudolph.  I guess that's a good comp as any.  I wouldn't compare him to an elite deep seam attacking guy like Gates or Gonzalez, or a hulking, overpowering guy like Bavaro.  But I think he can find spots in the zone and is a good red zone threat.

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When you are a 3-4 team, you have to keep drafting the tweeners so you can run it effectively.  Speed, Speed and more speed.

I hate giving the Steelers much credit for anything, but one thing they do know is how to find 3-4 edge rushers for their scheme.  They seem to have a knack for finding those guys in the 3-4th rounds (Gildon, Porter, Lloyd).

The Ravens are pretty good at finding those guys.  Hopefully Cullen can help identify those candidates for us as well.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

It happens every year.

In advocating a particular draft strategy, fans and experts alike will examine need to help determine where a team will or will not or should/should not go.



However, if Baalke is true to his word that he is a BAP drafter and that he will draft irrespective of need, it may be inevitable that some needs will not be addressed adequately, while positions of lesser needs may get draft attention.

So to the extent a team coming off a 1-15 season could have positions of relative strength, what positions would you not mind or object to the team drafting, especially in the early rounds?

If the team "drafted to strength," under what circumstances would you find it acceptable?  What players would you want at the position?

Under what circumstances would you NOT want these strengths to be bolstered further?

The problem is we can't know what the positional strength will be after a draft. A team can draft the same position with every pick and still not have talent at the position, because misses happen, and the later on the draft you get the less likely it is that the player you select will be great, anyway. Teams need to just try to take great players. No one ever complains about having three great tackles or four great cornerbacks. The likelihood of even having too many great players at a position to be able to get them in the field together seems pretty low. Teams should just trust their evaluations and take the best player left, understanding about half of the guys they take probably won't be as good as they thought they are, anyway.

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You can never have enough good O-Linemen, Corners and Edge Rushers.

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You can never have enough good O-Linemen, Corners and Edge Rushers.

Well...not too sure about the edge rushers as I think about it.

I just saw your latest mock and 25 and 33 hammered that point about over investment home to me.

Since 2015, we've spent three first round picks on edge rushers-two in the last two drafts, and only one first round pick during that time has been allocated to the offense-Fournette.  So that's six out of the last seven first rounders allocated to the defense.

The truly sad part is we have almost nothing to show for it.

Fowler?  Gone.

Ramsey?  Gone.

Bryan?  a complete bust who may not make the team 3 years after being drafted.

Allen?  a good player who regressed last year due to injury and a complete lack of surrounding help.

Henderson?  Had a very good first game, but was uneven after that

Chaisson?  Didn't like the pick at the time, so far has done nothing.  Hopefully will be more productive in the new scheme.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

No one drafts irrespective of need.

Need and positional value play a role in nearly every decision.

There may be a mid round or some late round picks that are pure BAP but that almost never happens before the fourth round regardless of Baalkes or anyone else’s comments suggesting otherwise.

Especially when a team isn’t already a playoff caliber team.

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No one drafts irrespective of need.

Need and positional value play a role in nearly every decision.

There may be a mid round or some late round picks that are pure BAP but that almost never happens before the fourth round regardless of Baalkes or anyone else’s comments suggesting otherwise.

Especially when a team isn’t already a playoff caliber team.

Be that as it may, the question still stands.  To the extent we have strengths, when would it be acceptable to draft to those strengths?  What strong positions could we fortify and not have you complain about not addressing a need?  (Not painting you as a malcontent..just as a general proposition)

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

It happens every year.

In advocating a particular draft strategy, fans and experts alike will examine need to help determine where a team will or will not or should/should not go.



However, if Baalke is true to his word that he is a BAP drafter and that he will draft irrespective of need, it may be inevitable that some needs will not be addressed adequately, while positions of lesser needs may get draft attention.

So to the extent a team coming off a 1-15 season could have positions of relative strength, what positions would you not mind or object to the team drafting, especially in the early rounds?

If the team "drafted to strength," under what circumstances would you find it acceptable?  What players would you want at the position?

Under what circumstances would you NOT want these strengths to be bolstered further?

It depends on how significant is the difference in value.  I've previously said that if there is a guaranteed future hall of famer at #25, I take him regardless of position (except maybe special teams).  However, how realistic is that?  If the BAP is a non-need and is only 1% better according to my scouts and there is a + or - 10% margin of error, then I'm passing on BAP for the need.  I think that is far more realistic or at least something closer to it than the first scenario.  Also, if there is a significant difference in value and I don't need the position, I look to trade down.  If one player is clearly better than everyone else, why wouldn't teams who need that position offer you an incredible deal for it?  You don't want to reach, but I also don't think players win games by sitting on the bench.  You win it by being on the field and you want the best possible team playing on the field.  Turning a weakness into a strength is the best way to improve a team quickly.  Changing a B into a B+ is a minor upgrade and won't win you many more games.  Changing an F into a B+ is huge and might make a big difference in your record.  If we are picking among B+ rated players, I want the one who upgrades the F.  It's an over simplification, but that's my basic philosophy.

As for positions off the table, I think they are few to none.  After taking Lawrence at #1, I would say for all practical purposes, quarterback would be off the board with an early pick.  Kicker, punter and long snapper are off the table, but that probably goes without saying.

The next consideration would be cornerback.  Our biggest free agent signing was at cornerback and we also have a top 10 pick at the position.  I even like Sidney Jones as a number 3.  I wouldn't go as far as to take cornerback off the table, but there would have to be a clear value difference for me to select it early.

I like our current wide receivers.  However, some are a little unproven, Shenault has a history of injuries and Marvin Jones is 31 so he won't be here forever.  I would be ok with taking one, although I would hope that it is value driving it.  

I like our starting running back.  However, you do need two running backs.  I know that I wrote a message bashing the possible selection of Etienne and maybe I'll scale back my criticism a little.  I watched some of his video and I do like him as a player and think he would be a good compliment to Robinson.  I just think there are other positions that would likely help us win more games, at least at the #25 spot.

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I find it difficult to say that a 1-15 team has any strengths. Therefore, there are no positions I'd pass on if the player is clearly the BAP at the time of the selection. That being said, it is very unlikely I'd take a player in rounds 1 or 2 at wide receiver or running back since these are positions of relative strength for the Jaguars. Once round 3 begins, however, I wouldn't hesitate to grab a Dynami Brown at receiver or Michael Carter at running back if I believed they were the BAP at that time.

The one position I would "reach" for is tight end due to that being the team's greatest weakness. I'm clearly in the minority by wanting them to select Freirmuth at pick 33. That being said, if Eichenberg, Moehrig or Collins also happen to be on the board at that time, I'd have to select them over Freirmuth. If that did happen, I'd have to either take Brevin Jordan or Hunter Long in round 3 or trade a 4th for Njoku. Although I used the term "reach" for Freirmuth, that is based only on his pre-draft rankings which typically make him a mid-2nd rounder. Personally, I believe Freirmuth will prove to be more than worthy of the 33rd pick.

How does Freirmuth compare to past TE prospects with measurables? What are some pro comparisons? 

I hate the idea of reaching for any player just because it's a glaring need. That's how you end up with a mediocre/poor roster. The Jaguars aren't going to the Super Bowl and probably not the playoffs next year even if TE is filled. Why not wait another year if there's a better BAP in round 2 or 3 than the available TE?

The comparisons I've seen are Kyle Rudolph, Hunter Henry and Zach Ertz. While he doesn't have near the upside of Pitts, I believe he will have a long career and be a great red zone threat.

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No one drafts irrespective of need.

Need and positional value play a role in nearly every decision.

There may be a mid round or some late round picks that are pure BAP but that almost never happens before the fourth round regardless of Baalkes or anyone else’s comments suggesting otherwise.

Especially when a team isn’t already a playoff caliber team.

Be that as it may, the question still stands.  To the extent we have strengths, when would it be acceptable to draft to those strengths?  What strong positions could we fortify and not have you complain about not addressing a need?  (Not painting you as a malcontent..just as a general proposition)

Personally - I don’t see a lot of areas of strength, so there’s not many spots I’d see early picks as surplus. Corner would be an odd choice, but still palatable. Receiver would run me the wrong way early given the lack of urgency to add protection for the QB thus far - which I think should take precedence. 

Aside from those two spots and any RB prior to the fourth round, I’m open minded. 
The RB thing is just my personal pet peeve regardless of roster surplus. 
The number of quality backs in mid rounds every year render early picks at the spot unwise.

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No one drafts irrespective of need.

Need and positional value play a role in nearly every decision.

There may be a mid round or some late round picks that are pure BAP but that almost never happens before the fourth round regardless of Baalkes or anyone else’s comments suggesting otherwise.

Especially when a team isn’t already a playoff caliber team.

This. 

I dunno why people still discuss BPA vs need.

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"Treyvon Wallet is elite run defender and better overall than Aidan Hutchinson" 11/11/23

No one drafts irrespective of need.

Need and positional value play a role in nearly every decision.

There may be a mid round or some late round picks that are pure BAP but that almost never happens before the fourth round regardless of Baalkes or anyone else’s comments suggesting otherwise.

Especially when a team isn’t already a playoff caliber team.

Be that as it may, the question still stands.  To the extent we have strengths, when would it be acceptable to draft to those strengths?  What strong positions could we fortify and not have you complain about not addressing a need?  (Not painting you as a malcontent..just as a general proposition)

There is no single, definitive answer.  The relative differences in the team's strength at different positions, value of positions and quality of players available are all factors.  No GM is ever going to automatically take the BAP, regardless of their draft "strategy''.  As a general rule, I always want the player who most improves the team.  

Unless they made public their player rankings, how would we ever know anyway?  Now that would be fun!  Imagine if every team was required to submit a copy of their "board"  just before round 1 started.  Lock them up in a safe, on stage right next to Goodell, to be published after the draft ended.

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When you get into the endzone, act like you've been there before.