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Acceptable Surpluses

#21

I honestly think D-Line is an area of strength now. We've invested a lot into that position via free agency and we have Hamilton coming back from injury. I honestly don't know why we would add another guy to this position, because we are already stacked. In fact, it's the only position I'd say that we are loaded. I think we are good at WR, but we can always add more depth. On the D-Line, we have starters and good depth IMO.
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#22

Once upon a time, the Jags passed on Aaron Rodgers to pick up a much needed wide receiver. No surplus is worth that.

Like a lot of you mentioned, if there is a guy you believe will be hall of fame worthy, other than special teams, you take him regardless of what you already have at the position. If I had my druthers, the Jags would have 2 good QBs on the roster, 3 deep at RB, and have the ability to replace the entire OL with someone equal at the position. Otherwise, business as usual. Still looking for another Pete Mitchell, but hey, that's me.
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#23

(04-10-2021, 08:16 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: Once upon a time, the Jags passed on Aaron Rodgers to pick up a much needed wide receiver.  No surplus is worth that.

Like a lot of you mentioned, if there is a guy you believe will be hall of fame worthy, other than special teams, you take him regardless of what you already have at the position.  If I had my druthers, the Jags would have 2 good QBs on the roster, 3 deep at RB, and have the ability to replace the entire OL with someone equal at the position.  Otherwise, business as usual.  Still looking for another Pete Mitchell, but hey, that's me.

That's the dream.......
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#24

(04-10-2021, 09:22 AM)Bullseye Wrote: It happens every year.

In advocating a particular draft strategy, fans and experts alike will examine need to help determine where a team will or will not or should/should not go.



However, if Baalke is true to his word that he is a BAP drafter and that he will draft irrespective of need, it may be inevitable that some needs will not be addressed adequately, while positions of lesser needs may get draft attention.

So to the extent a team coming off a 1-15 season could have positions of relative strength, what positions would you not mind or object to the team drafting, especially in the early rounds?

If the team "drafted to strength," under what circumstances would you find it acceptable?  What players would you want at the position?

Under what circumstances would you NOT want these strengths to be bolstered further?

I would determine best available player in the following way: 

1) Assign a point value to the player based on talent, production, etc.  Just the pure value of the player regardless of position or team need.   
2) Add fractional points for positional value.  For example, CBs get more value than safeties.  LT gets more value than RG.  And so forth.
3) Add fractional points for team need.  "Team need" can range from "We are weak at that position" to "We want to help TL succeed"  to "this guy fits our system."  


Rank the players using the total points, and pick the highest rated player who is not a QB, punter, kicker, or long snapper.  

This is a hybrid system that combines traditional "best available player" with team needs and positional value. 

Right now, I would rank "positional value" in the following order: 
1) Quarterback.
2) Offensive line
3) Defensive line
4) CB
5) WR, RB, TE.
6) Linebacker
7) Safety

I would rank "team needs" in the following order: 
1) Offensive line (even if they sit on the bench for a year)
2) TE
3) RB (we need more than the one we have)
4) Safety
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#25

Man .. I miss Pete Mitchell and it is true we have never replaced him
The Khan Years

Patience, Persistence, and Piss Poor General Managers.
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#26

Once we draft Trevor Lawrence, we’re headed to some Super Bowls...that’s all I know.
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#27

(04-10-2021, 08:30 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(04-10-2021, 08:16 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: Once upon a time, the Jags passed on Aaron Rodgers to pick up a much needed wide receiver.  No surplus is worth that.

Like a lot of you mentioned, if there is a guy you believe will be hall of fame worthy, other than special teams, you take him regardless of what you already have at the position.  If I had my druthers, the Jags would have 2 good QBs on the roster, 3 deep at RB, and have the ability to replace the entire OL with someone equal at the position.  Otherwise, business as usual.  Still looking for another Pete Mitchell, but hey, that's me.

That's the dream.......

That's not a dream, it's a hallucination.  Nobody can afford to leave that much talent sitting on the bench.  I'd love an offense that could score 40 points every game, but what good is it if the defense gives up 41?

Hypothetical - Assume every player on the team is of average talent.  No difference between starters and back-ups on offense, defense or special teams.  What win-loss record would you anticipate?
When you get into the endzone, act like you've been there before.
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#28

(04-11-2021, 05:53 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Right now, I would rank "positional value" in the following order: 
1) Quarterback.
2) Offensive line
3) Defensive line
4) CB
5) WR, RB, TE.
6) Linebacker
7) Safety

It's debateable between CB and pass rush, I don't think it's fair to put all DL together, but they're both above OL. WR is its own tier, I think 5 is good for them. RB and TE are last with space between them and the others.
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#29

I think DE is more valuable than CB.
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#30

The moment we draft Trevor, the BAP strategy will be defunct since Pitts is the BAP.

@ 25, we need to address LB, Safety, or DT (Barmore only) unless someone unexpectedly drops
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#31
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2021, 08:25 AM by Mikey.)

(04-10-2021, 09:22 AM)Bullseye Wrote: It happens every year.

In advocating a particular draft strategy, fans and experts alike will examine need to help determine where a team will or will not or should/should not go.



However, if Baalke is true to his word that he is a BAP drafter and that he will draft irrespective of need, it may be inevitable that some needs will not be addressed adequately, while positions of lesser needs may get draft attention.

So to the extent a team coming off a 1-15 season could have positions of relative strength, what positions would you not mind or object to the team drafting, especially in the early rounds?

If the team "drafted to strength," under what circumstances would you find it acceptable?  What players would you want at the position?

Under what circumstances would you NOT want these strengths to be bolstered further?

I've made it no secret that I value depth along both lines. The trenches will wear a body down, and it's good to have suitable replacements at the ready. As we've raised in other threads, Urbz has publicly expressed confidence in the current OL, but I think that the combination of depth in this darft and the contract situations of our current guys all but demand we grab at least one lineman in this draft. Not necessarily someone expected to plug in day one, but someone that could be a force within a season, as we will likely be rebuilding the line over the next few years. I do not feel a desperation at either position; however, I figure any DL taken the first two days will have a legit shot to start week 1. I wasn't really impressed with our FA signings on that side.

Along with that, UDFA signings that tend to see the field are the receivers, DBs that usually have a glut of depth in any darft. The dropoff from a 4th round tackle to UDFA is significantly greater than that at WR or even RB.

The only way I deviate would be if there's been a run at the position, and the board presents a choice between the leftovers at one of the lines vs.  players at other positions that have slipped. I won't ever say "We're good, no more picks at this position." If a guy is that great, take him, and figure out what to do with the surplus later. With 10 picks at our disposal, though, I really believe that we can address nearly every position on the field at the end of the month. It will be a challenge for any GM to blow it, I just hope Urbz and Baalke don't see that as a challenge Smile

(04-10-2021, 11:33 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(04-10-2021, 10:53 AM)TheDogCatcher Wrote: How does Freirmuth compare to past TE prospects with measurables? What are some pro comparisons? 

I hate the idea of reaching for any player just because it's a glaring need. That's how you end up with a mediocre/poor roster. The Jaguars aren't going to the Super Bowl and probably not the playoffs next year even if TE is filled. Why not wait another year if there's a better BAP in round 2 or 3 than the available TE?

People have given him the nickname of Baby Gronk, which is unfortunate because Gronkowski is an all time great.  Besides, the last guy I remember being called anything with "baby"in it was Mike Pearson, who was called Baby Boselli.  Let's just say the name did not fit.

I don't know that I have a ready made comparison to Friermuth because to me he resembles many dependable TEs.  Lindy's compared him to Kyle Rudolph.  I guess that's a good comp as any.  I wouldn't compare him to an elite deep seam attacking guy like Gates or Gonzalez, or a hulking, overpowering guy like Bavaro.  But I think he can find spots in the zone and is a good red zone threat.


Glen Davis has a sad. (Big Baby)
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#32
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2021, 01:00 PM by Bullseye.)

(04-11-2021, 04:36 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: The moment we draft Trevor, the BAP strategy will be defunct since Pitts is the BAP.

@ 25, we need to address LB, Safety, or DT (Barmore only)  unless someone unexpectedly drops

You raise an interesting point here.

In years where QBs are projected to go first overall (whether they are "generrational" talents or not, it seems the various draft observers never rate them as the best overall player.  It's always a position player that gets that distinction.

Can a QB be the true BAP?

(04-11-2021, 12:08 PM)JagFanatic24 Wrote: Once we draft Trevor Lawrence, we’re headed to some Super Bowls...that’s all I know.

From your keyboard to God's eyes to reality!
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#33

(04-11-2021, 12:08 PM)JagFanatic24 Wrote: Once we draft Trevor Lawrence, we’re headed to some Super Bowls...that’s all I know.

Headline three years from now:

“Trevor Lawrence requests trade out of Jacksonville; Patriots express interest.”

Sorry. It’s the perennially beaten and vanquished Jaguars fan in me.
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#34

(04-11-2021, 12:08 PM)JagFanatic24 Wrote: Once we draft Trevor Lawrence, we’re headed to some Super Bowls...that’s all I know.

Laughing Laughing Laughing
"Treyvon Wallet is elite run defender and better overall than Aidan Hutchinson" 11/11/23
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#35

(04-12-2021, 01:10 PM)homebiscuit Wrote:
(04-11-2021, 12:08 PM)JagFanatic24 Wrote: Once we draft Trevor Lawrence, we’re headed to some Super Bowls...that’s all I know.

Headline three years from now:

“Trevor Lawrence requests trade out of Jacksonville; Patriots express interest.”

Sorry. It’s the perennially beaten and vanquished Jaguars fan in me.

(04-12-2021, 01:21 PM)iHaunting Raven Wrote:
(04-11-2021, 12:08 PM)JagFanatic24 Wrote: Once we draft Trevor Lawrence, we’re headed to some Super Bowls...that’s all I know.

Laughing Laughing Laughing

I wish our history were such that I could, in no way relate to or understand these responses.

Sadly, that is not the case.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#36

[Image: serious-taking-oath-gesturing-confident-...184778.jpg]

In the future I promise to be a more optimistic Jaguars fan...even when our QB seemingly can't hit the side of a barn when he isn't running for his life And Our DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR CONTINUES CALLING THE SAME INEFFECTUAL SCHEME OVER AND OVER WHILE THE SPORTS WORLD LAUGHS, L-A-U-G-H-S, AT US...(ahem), uphold a winning outlook and remain confident of our success. 

So help me Tom Coughlin. 
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#37

(04-12-2021, 02:09 PM)homebiscuit Wrote: [Image: serious-taking-oath-gesturing-confident-...184778.jpg]

In the future I promise to be a more optimistic Jaguars fan...even when our QB seemingly can't hit the side of a barn when he isn't running for his life And Our DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR CONTINUES CALLING THE SAME INEFFECTUAL SCHEME OVER AND OVER WHILE THE SPORTS WORLD LAUGHS, L-A-U-G-H-S, AT US...(ahem), uphold a winning outlook and remain confident of our success. 

So help me Tom Coughlin. 
Laughing
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#38

(04-11-2021, 12:08 PM)Sneakers Wrote:
(04-10-2021, 08:30 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: That's the dream.......

That's not a dream, it's a hallucination.  Nobody can afford to leave that much talent sitting on the bench.  I'd love an offense that could score 40 points every game, but what good is it if the defense gives up 41?

Hypothetical - Assume every player on the team is of average talent.  No difference between starters and back-ups on offense, defense or special teams.  What win-loss record would you anticipate?

We pretty much saw that last year, so 1-15.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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#39

(04-11-2021, 04:36 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: The moment we draft Trevor, the BAP strategy will be defunct since Pitts is the BAP.

@ 25, we need to address LB, Safety, or DT (Barmore only)  unless someone unexpectedly drops

Most, if not all, pure BAP rankings that I have seen have Trevor Lawrence as the #1 BAP.
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#40

Guys I hope we draft some defensive studs. @Sneakers said it perfectly...what good is a 40 point offense fun and fun type of play style, if our defense is giving up 41.

A strong defense is what we need after we draft our QB.
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