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Your WORST prediction/reaction on a draft pick

#1

With only 12 days until our most anticipated draft class ever, we have all indicated the players we covet as well as the ones we want the Jaguars to avoid. Over the 25 year history of the Jaguars, we all have been able to say, " I told you so" about a high pick the Jaguars chose to pass on as well as those who eventually became busts. However,, if you could name one player that you were TOTALLY WRONG about, who would it be?

Fred Taylor is my easy choice. When the Jaguars passed on Takeo Spikes, my favorite player in the the 1998 draft, to take an over-rated back from Florida I threw a major fit.  I certainly have been correct on many picks over the years (the law of averages), but thankfully Tom Coughlin made the choice he did. Spikes had an injury filled career and was never anything special.
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#2

(04-17-2021, 04:50 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: With only 12 days until our most anticipated draft class ever, we have all indicated the players we covet as well as the ones we want the Jaguars to avoid. Over the 25 year history of the Jaguars, we all have been able to say, " I told you so" about a high pick the Jaguars chose to pass on as well as those who eventually became busts. However,, if you could name one player that you were TOTALLY WRONG about, who would it be?

Fred Taylor is my easy choice. When the Jaguars passed on Takeo Spikes, my favorite player in the the 1998 draft, to take an over-rated back from Florida I threw a major fit.  I certainly have been correct on many picks over the years (the law of averages), but thankfully Tom Coughlin made the choice he did. Spikes had an injury filled career and was never anything special.

Coughlin didn't want Fred either.
[Image: images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSIM9bZmkezB9B4qD2qAtT...IGQHCZIPuA]
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#3

(04-17-2021, 04:51 PM)Dimson Wrote:
(04-17-2021, 04:50 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: With only 12 days until our most anticipated draft class ever, we have all indicated the players we covet as well as the ones we want the Jaguars to avoid. Over the 25 year history of the Jaguars, we all have been able to say, " I told you so" about a high pick the Jaguars chose to pass on as well as those who eventually became busts. However,, if you could name one player that you were TOTALLY WRONG about, who would it be?

Fred Taylor is my easy choice. When the Jaguars passed on Takeo Spikes, my favorite player in the the 1998 draft, to take an over-rated back from Florida I threw a major fit.  I certainly have been correct on many picks over the years (the law of averages), but thankfully Tom Coughlin made the choice he did. Spikes had an injury filled career and was never anything special.

Coughlin didn't want Fred either.

I guess you didn't see his reaction when watching Fred run the 40 during his workout prior to the draft. I'd like to play poker with him, sometime.
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#4

(04-17-2021, 04:55 PM)jaglou53 Wrote:
(04-17-2021, 04:51 PM)Dimson Wrote: Coughlin didn't want Fred either.

I guess you didn't see his reaction when watching Fred run the 40 during his workout prior to the draft. I'd like to play poker with him, sometime.

Yeah well it was widely reported that TC was interested in trading up for Curtis Enis.  Enis fit the mold of a TC power back. 

That year, I wanted them to trade up for Charles Woodson, but the Chargers paying so much to move up one spot for Ryan Leaf all but made that impossible.

In either event, I'm glad no trade ever materialized.  Had we moved up for Enis, we would have been saddled with a huge bust and missed out on Taylor and DD.  Even trading up for Woodson may have been a mistake.  Sure we may have gotten a HOF caliber player at a premium position, but that draft was very deep at CB, and there was a glut of CBs in the second round that were good, including Samari Rolle and Dre Bly.  If anything, we should have traded up in the second round to land one of those guys.  We could have had FT, DD, and one of those good second round CBs.  Instead, we wound up with Cordell Taylor, a forced CB pick at the bottom of the second round that year. and one of the worst picks in team history.  

As for my wrong predictions, I have had so many over the years, it's difficult to rank.  I would have to say two of my most disappointing predictions were for Leftwich and for Justin Blackmon.  Never thought BL would be so universally hated, nor did I think he would have so many health issues.  As for Justin Blackmon, I don't think abyne outside of Oklahoma City knew how much of a problem he had with alcohol.  I knew he had the DUI driving back from a Cowboys game, but that was the only one I knew about.  Just as a football player, he was an absolutely outstanding talent.  Had he been able to control his drinking, he could have been an all time great, and could have owned this town since we had gone so long without a stud at the position. 

On the other side of the miss category is a player I didn't think would be THAT good or a system fit was J.J. Watt.  OMG did he turn out to be absolutely dominant!  I remember reading a guy on the board touting him, but I disagreed and didn't see him as a 4-3 end.  I can't remember who it was, but I wish I could give him credit for that.

I feel comfortable sharing those embarrassing revelations, because even those who work in the NFL have spectacular misses.  Bill Walsh had to be convinced to draft Joe Montana over his college QB Steve Dils.  I also know those weren't the first picks I got wrong, and they won't be the last.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#5

(04-17-2021, 04:51 PM)Dimson Wrote:
(04-17-2021, 04:50 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: With only 12 days until our most anticipated draft class ever, we have all indicated the players we covet as well as the ones we want the Jaguars to avoid. Over the 25 year history of the Jaguars, we all have been able to say, " I told you so" about a high pick the Jaguars chose to pass on as well as those who eventually became busts. However,, if you could name one player that you were TOTALLY WRONG about, who would it be?

Fred Taylor is my easy choice. When the Jaguars passed on Takeo Spikes, my favorite player in the the 1998 draft, to take an over-rated back from Florida I threw a major fit.  I certainly have been correct on many picks over the years (the law of averages), but thankfully Tom Coughlin made the choice he did. Spikes had an injury filled career and was never anything special.

Coughlin didn't want Fred either.

I had forgotten about Coughlin's wanting to trade up for Enis, until Bullseye's reminder. Enis would have been good if not for his injury, but not in Freddy T.'s class. Often the best moves are the ones which teams DON'T make.
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#6
(This post was last modified: 04-17-2021, 07:25 PM by TheO-LineMatters.)

Easily, Byron Leftwich. I really liked him in college. He was accurate and had a strong arm. I thought the touch pass would eventually develop, but it never did and that was his downfall. No matter if he was throwing a long, bomb or a simple 5 yard screen pass, he would fire the ball like a cannon with that long, windup. A lot of times his passes would bounce off the receivers hands or even their helmets and get picked off. I just don't understand why he couldn't take something off his passes when a little touch was needed? I thought sure he was gonna be a good NFL QB. I was extremely wrong.

Another guy I was off on to a lesser extent was Jalen Ramsey. I did not like the guy at all. I was praying we either took Ronnie Stanley or Laremy Tunsil. I desperately wanted to trade back a little, get one of those guys and add picks. Ramsey turned out to be a shutdown corner, but I still don't like him as a human being though. At least if we would've drafted Stanley or Tunsil, they might still be on the team, so I should get half credit on that one. LOL.
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#7

(04-17-2021, 07:23 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: Easily, Byron Leftwich. I really liked him in college. He was accurate and had a strong arm. I thought the touch pass would eventually develop, but it never did and that was his downfall. No matter if he was throwing a long, bomb or a simple 5 yard screen pass, he would fire the ball like a cannon with that long, windup. A lot of times his passes would bounce off the receivers hands or even their helmets and get picked off. I just don't understand why he couldn't take something off his passes when a little touch was needed? I thought sure he was gonna be a good NFL QB. I was extremely wrong.

Another guy I was off on to a lesser extent was Jalen Ramsey. I did not like the guy at all. I was praying we either took Ronnie Stanley or Laremy Tunsil. I desperately wanted to trade back a little, get one of those guys and add picks. Ramsey turned out to be a shutdown corner, but I still don't like him as a human being though. At least if we would've drafted Stanley or Tunsil, they might still be on the team, so I should get half credit on that one. LOL.

Laughing

Take every ounce of credit you can get, because when you get it wrong-and you will-you will certainly hear about it.  I think fans on this board are too passionate and memories are too long for it not to happen...and I think it makes for a better board in many instances.

As far Ramsey, I didn't know about him as a human being to comment on him at FSU,

I think that's the biggest thing to misevaluate-character.

As I think about it, character has been the biggest factor among all of the Jaguars busts.  Soward had speed and quickness for days, but egads was he dysfunctional!

Reggie Williams and Matt Jones back to back both had character issues...and then there was Blackmon.  Ugh.

Ramsey certainly was no bust, but his career with the Jaguars ended way too prematurely and in disappointment in part because of his character.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#8

In 2008, I thought the Jags had an unbelievable duo that would terrorize QBs in the league for a decade or more, in Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves. OOps.
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#9

(04-17-2021, 07:38 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(04-17-2021, 07:23 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: Easily, Byron Leftwich. I really liked him in college. He was accurate and had a strong arm. I thought the touch pass would eventually develop, but it never did and that was his downfall. No matter if he was throwing a long, bomb or a simple 5 yard screen pass, he would fire the ball like a cannon with that long, windup. A lot of times his passes would bounce off the receivers hands or even their helmets and get picked off. I just don't understand why he couldn't take something off his passes when a little touch was needed? I thought sure he was gonna be a good NFL QB. I was extremely wrong.

Another guy I was off on to a lesser extent was Jalen Ramsey. I did not like the guy at all. I was praying we either took Ronnie Stanley or Laremy Tunsil. I desperately wanted to trade back a little, get one of those guys and add picks. Ramsey turned out to be a shutdown corner, but I still don't like him as a human being though. At least if we would've drafted Stanley or Tunsil, they might still be on the team, so I should get half credit on that one. LOL.

Laughing

Take every ounce of credit you can get, because when you get it wrong-and you will-you will certainly hear about it.  I think fans on this board are too passionate and memories are too long for it not to happen...and I think it makes for a better board in many instances.

As far Ramsey, I didn't know about him as a human being to comment on him at FSU,

I think that's the biggest thing to misevaluate-character.

As I think about it, character has been the biggest factor among all of the Jaguars busts.  Soward had speed and quickness for days, but egads was he dysfunctional!

Reggie Williams and Matt Jones back to back both had character issues...and then there was Blackmon.  Ugh.

Ramsey certainly was no bust, but his career with the Jaguars ended way too prematurely and in disappointment in part because of his character.

Agree 1000%. Since we are not privy to the one on one interviews or the background checks on prospects, we can only go on what we see and hear in the media. On that front, I really like what I've seen and read on Lawrence. He seems like a very happy, content guy, but also a player who wants to be the best at his position and works hard at it. Hopefully, this translates to the next level. 

Ramsey ended up being a much, much better player than I gave him credit for. I just wish he wasn't such an ego-maniac. Maybe he would still be here and our secondary wouldn't be so atrocious!
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#10

Gabbert. Easy.

There was talk of him going #1 to Carolina and when the Jags traded up for him, I was so excited. Big fail.
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#11

(04-17-2021, 07:46 PM)ATLjag Wrote: In 2008, I thought the Jags had an unbelievable duo that would terrorize QBs in the league for a decade or more, in Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves.   OOps.

I was so hopeful that duo...or at least ibe if them...would put us over the top.

Damn.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#12

(04-17-2021, 07:47 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(04-17-2021, 07:38 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Laughing

Take every ounce of credit you can get, because when you get it wrong-and you will-you will certainly hear about it.  I think fans on this board are too passionate and memories are too long for it not to happen...and I think it makes for a better board in many instances.

As far Ramsey, I didn't know about him as a human being to comment on him at FSU,

I think that's the biggest thing to misevaluate-character.

As I think about it, character has been the biggest factor among all of the Jaguars busts.  Soward had speed and quickness for days, but egads was he dysfunctional!

Reggie Williams and Matt Jones back to back both had character issues...and then there was Blackmon.  Ugh.

Ramsey certainly was no bust, but his career with the Jaguars ended way too prematurely and in disappointment in part because of his character.

Agree 1000%. Since we are not privy to the one on one interviews or the background checks on prospects, we can only go on what we see and hear in the media. On that front, I really like what I've seen and read on Lawrence. He seems like a very happy, content guy, but also a player who wants to be the best at his position and works hard at it. Hopefully, this translates to the next level. 

Ramsey ended up being a much, much better player than I gave him credit for. I just wish he wasn't such an ego-maniac. Maybe he would still be here and our secondary wouldn't be so atrocious!
(emphasis added)

I hated seeing Ramsey go for any number of reasons.  But right now I see it as a blessing in disguise.  His presence here may have changed the result in one game (though I can't think of a specific one at the moment), and we wouldn't be in a position to draft Trevor Lawrence.

But moving forward, this team has to do a much better job of drafting AND retaining as many of its star players as possible.  Now assuming we hit on TL, we'll have to pay him a ton of money on a second contract, and people will have to be let go to accommodate that.  Though I would hate it, I can live with that knowing we have our franchise signal caller.  But not having a franchise signal caller and allowing playmaker after playmaker walk without even reaching the last year of their contract borders perilously close to malpractice.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#13

(04-17-2021, 09:51 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(04-17-2021, 07:47 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: Agree 1000%. Since we are not privy to the one on one interviews or the background checks on prospects, we can only go on what we see and hear in the media. On that front, I really like what I've seen and read on Lawrence. He seems like a very happy, content guy, but also a player who wants to be the best at his position and works hard at it. Hopefully, this translates to the next level. 

Ramsey ended up being a much, much better player than I gave him credit for. I just wish he wasn't such an ego-maniac. Maybe he would still be here and our secondary wouldn't be so atrocious!
(emphasis added)

I hated seeing Ramsey go for any number of reasons.  But right now I see it as a blessing in disguise.  His presence here may have changed the result in one game (though I can't think of a specific one at the moment), and we wouldn't be in a position to draft Trevor Lawrence.

But moving forward, this team has to do a much better job of drafting AND retaining as many of its star players as possible.  Now assuming we hit on TL, we'll have to pay him a ton of money on a second contract, and people will have to be let go to accommodate that.  Though I would hate it, I can live with that knowing we have our franchise signal caller.  But not having a franchise signal caller and allowing playmaker after playmaker walk without even reaching the last year of their contract borders perilously close to malpractice.

Agreed.
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#14

I'll give one the other way. I was not a fan of the Chark pick at all. Glad to be wrong about that one.
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#15

(04-17-2021, 07:38 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(04-17-2021, 07:23 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: Easily, Byron Leftwich. I really liked him in college. He was accurate and had a strong arm. I thought the touch pass would eventually develop, but it never did and that was his downfall. No matter if he was throwing a long, bomb or a simple 5 yard screen pass, he would fire the ball like a cannon with that long, windup. A lot of times his passes would bounce off the receivers hands or even their helmets and get picked off. I just don't understand why he couldn't take something off his passes when a little touch was needed? I thought sure he was gonna be a good NFL QB. I was extremely wrong.

Another guy I was off on to a lesser extent was Jalen Ramsey. I did not like the guy at all. I was praying we either took Ronnie Stanley or Laremy Tunsil. I desperately wanted to trade back a little, get one of those guys and add picks. Ramsey turned out to be a shutdown corner, but I still don't like him as a human being though. At least if we would've drafted Stanley or Tunsil, they might still be on the team, so I should get half credit on that one. LOL.

Laughing

Take every ounce of credit you can get, because when you get it wrong-and you will-you will certainly hear about it.  I think fans on this board are too passionate and memories are too long for it not to happen...and I think it makes for a better board in many instances.

As far Ramsey, I didn't know about him as a human being to comment on him at FSU,

I think that's the biggest thing to misevaluate-character.

As I think about it, character has been the biggest factor among all of the Jaguars busts.  Soward had speed and quickness for days, but egads was he dysfunctional!

Reggie Williams and Matt Jones back to back both had character issues...and then there was Blackmon.  Ugh.

Ramsey certainly was no bust, but his career with the Jaguars ended way too prematurely and in disappointment in part because of his character.

It does seem like the Jaguars have had more than their share of 1st round busts due to reasons other than talent. Of all the guys mentioned, Justin Blackmon was the most avoidable. I remember hearing that the Bucs had a scout camped out for a week at a bar which Blackmon was known to frequent. After seeing way too much of Blackmon during this time, they took him off their draft board. The least understandable was Coughlin drafting Soward. Those 2 guys could not be more different, but Coughlin must have felt like he could change R.J.'s bad habits. If Coughlin were being honest and asked what was his worst decision ever as a coach or administrator, selecting Soward would have to be the clear-cut winner.
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#16
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2021, 05:23 AM by The Real Marty.)

I can't remember making a really strong judgment about any particular draft pick immediately after they had been drafted.  

But I do remember, when we drafted Fred Taylor, they played him some in the preseason, and I thought he was a bust.  He couldn't find the holes, he ran directly into his own blockers, he really looked bad.  

Some years later, we drafted Blake Bortles, and I had no idea who he was, but during the preseason, he came in and immediately completed a pass downfield, and I turned to my friend and declared "He's the real thing!  We finally have a QB!!" or something to that effect.

So I guess mine would be, during their first preseason, I thought Fred Taylor was a bust and I thought Blake Bortles was going to be great.
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#17
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2021, 08:18 AM by Bullseye.)

(04-17-2021, 11:49 PM)Upper Wrote: I'll give one the other way. I was not a fan of the Chark pick at all. Glad to be wrong about that one.

That was one of a few over the years I was right about.  I just hope he can remain a Jaguar a long time now that we'll have TL

I will always value Jimmy Smith and Keenan for their contributions to the Jaguars, but we need to have other receivers atop the Jaguars receiving records.

(04-17-2021, 11:50 PM)jaglou53 Wrote:
(04-17-2021, 07:38 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Laughing

Take every ounce of credit you can get, because when you get it wrong-and you will-you will certainly hear about it.  I think fans on this board are too passionate and memories are too long for it not to happen...and I think it makes for a better board in many instances.

As far Ramsey, I didn't know about him as a human being to comment on him at FSU,

I think that's the biggest thing to misevaluate-character.

As I think about it, character has been the biggest factor among all of the Jaguars busts.  Soward had speed and quickness for days, but egads was he dysfunctional!

Reggie Williams and Matt Jones back to back both had character issues...and then there was Blackmon.  Ugh.

Ramsey certainly was no bust, but his career with the Jaguars ended way too prematurely and in disappointment in part because of his character.

It does seem like the Jaguars have had more than their share of 1st round busts due to reasons other than talent. Of all the guys mentioned, Justin Blackmon was the most avoidable. I remember hearing that the Bucs had a scout camped out for a week at a bar which Blackmon was known to frequent. After seeing way too much of Blackmon during this time, they took him off their draft board. The least understandable was Coughlin drafting Soward. Those 2 guys could not be more different, but Coughlin must have felt like he could change R.J.'s bad habits. If Coughlin were being honest and asked what was his worst decision ever as a coach or administrator, selecting Soward would have to be the clear-cut winner.

I remembered teading about the Tampa scouts investigating Blackmon.  What makes that particularly bad is we traded a 4th round pick to Tampa to get in position to draft Blackmon in the first place.  AAARRRGGHHH!!!!

I also recall hearing a lot of whispers about R Jay Soward's off field stuff, and I hated the pick when it was made.  I think Soward could easily represent TC's biggest mistake in his Jaguars' career.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#18

(04-18-2021, 05:21 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: I can't remember making a really strong judgment about any particular draft pick immediately after they had been drafted.  

But I do remember, when we drafted Fred Taylor, they played him some in the preseason, and I thought he was a bust.  He couldn't find the holes, he ran directly into his own blockers, he really looked bad.  

Some years later, we drafted Blake Bortles, and I had no idea who he was, but during the preseason, he came in and immediately completed a pass downfield, and I turned to my friend and declared "He's the real thing!  We finally have a QB!!" or something to that effect.

So I guess mine would be, during their first preseason, I thought Fred Taylor was a bust and I thought Blake Bortles was going to be great.

Laughing

I remember you chiding us "housepainters" for hating the Soward pick.

I also remember having the same concerns about Taylor early on.  He really didn't get going until like his 3rd regular season game-against the Ravens, as I recall.  he made that trademark cut back against the grain against them and took it to the house.  By then I knew he would be okay.

Chances are, I saw the same pass from Bortles you did and thought the same thing.  I remember doing something similar when Leftwich threw a GW TD pass in his first preseason game.

I guess the moral of the story is avoid immediate reactions?  I'm not sure how possible that is, TBH.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#19
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2021, 09:30 AM by flgatorsandjags.)

Blackmon and Joecklel. I was super high on both and thought both were gonna be great. Cyprien is another

Blackmon was great and probably would of been a HOFer if it wasn't for alcohol

When we took Cyp I was really high on Ertz as well and he was rumored to be the next guy on our board after Cyp, with we would of taken Ertz
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#20

(04-18-2021, 08:26 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(04-18-2021, 05:21 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: I can't remember making a really strong judgment about any particular draft pick immediately after they had been drafted.  

But I do remember, when we drafted Fred Taylor, they played him some in the preseason, and I thought he was a bust.  He couldn't find the holes, he ran directly into his own blockers, he really looked bad.  

Some years later, we drafted Blake Bortles, and I had no idea who he was, but during the preseason, he came in and immediately completed a pass downfield, and I turned to my friend and declared "He's the real thing!  We finally have a QB!!" or something to that effect.

So I guess mine would be, during their first preseason, I thought Fred Taylor was a bust and I thought Blake Bortles was going to be great.

Laughing

I remember you chiding us "housepainters" for hating the Soward pick.

I also remember having the same concerns about Taylor early on.  He really didn't get going until like his 3rd regular season game-against the Ravens, as I recall.  he made that trademark cut back against the grain against them and took it to the house.  By then I knew he would be okay.

Chances are, I saw the same pass from Bortles you did and thought the same thing.  I remember doing something similar when Leftwich threw a GW TD pass in his first preseason game.

I guess the moral of the story is avoid immediate reactions?  I'm not sure how possible that is, TBH.

Oh, man, I wish I could see that post defending the Soward pick.  That must be an absolute classic!
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