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Your WORST prediction/reaction on a draft pick

#21

(04-18-2021, 09:25 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Blackmon and Joecklel.  I was super high on both and thought both were gonna be great.  Cyprien is another

Blackmon was great and probably would of been a HOFer if it wasn't for alcohol

When we took Cyp I was really high on Ertz as well and he was rumored to be the next guy on our board after Cyp, with we would of taken Ertz

I absolutely loathed the Joeckel selection. Everyone told me I was crazy and that he was the best OT in the draft. When I saw him, I saw a finesse Tackle that lacked functional strength and balance and he got beaten a lot by bull rushers. At the time, Texas A&M was churning out the same type of OT's over and over and very few of them lasted as starters in the NFL. I remember wanting desperately to trade back and select DeAndre Hopkins. I hated our receiving corps at the time and I had Hopkins as a top 3 player. Again, I was told I was crazy and people said Hopkins was a headcase, because of a publicized incident where feces was spread on a wall. Hopkins denied doing it though and nothing in his past showed he would do such a thing. His coach vouched for his character, but he tumbled down people's draft boards anyway and wasn't chosen until very late in the first round. A lot of teams ended up regretting passing on him. Given out poor QB play at the time, Hopkins probably wouldn't end up being the player he is today, had we drafted him. So, I can't really claim that as a win.

Blackmon was another guy I missed on. I forgot about him. I really liked him. He could get deep and separate better than any WR I had seen in a while. He had all the talent in the world, but he was an alcoholic, headcase. It's a shame. He could've been great. That is a good example of how fans just aren't in the loop on players' personal issues. 

There's always some kind of issue brought up a bout a high caliber player right before the draft. There was Josh Rosen's entitled attitude, Hopkins "fecal incident", Laremy Tunsil's gas mask bong photo and Jeffrey Simmons video of him viciously beating up some girl. That's just the ones I can think of off the top of my head. Who knows what it will be this year?
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#22
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2021, 10:35 AM by The Real Marty.)

(04-18-2021, 10:09 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(04-18-2021, 09:25 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Blackmon and Joecklel.  I was super high on both and thought both were gonna be great.  Cyprien is another

Blackmon was great and probably would of been a HOFer if it wasn't for alcohol

When we took Cyp I was really high on Ertz as well and he was rumored to be the next guy on our board after Cyp, with we would of taken Ertz

I absolutely loathed the Joeckel selection. Everyone told me I was crazy and that he was the best OT in the draft. When I saw him, I saw a finesse Tackle that lacked functional strength and balance and he got beaten a lot by bull rushers. At the time, Texas A&M was churning out the same type of OT's over and over and very few of them lasted as starters in the NFL. I remember wanting desperately to trade back and select DeAndre Hopkins. I hated our receiving corps at the time and I had Hopkins as a top 3 player. Again, I was told I was crazy and people said Hopkins was a headcase, because of a publicized incident where feces was spread on a wall. Hopkins denied doing it though and nothing in his past showed he would do such a thing. His coach vouched for his character, but he tumbled down people's draft boards anyway and wasn't chosen until very late in the first round. A lot of teams ended up regretting passing on him. Given out poor QB play at the time, Hopkins probably wouldn't end up being the player he is today, had we drafted him. So, I can't really claim that as a win.

Blackmon was another guy I missed on. I forgot about him. I really liked him. He could get deep and separate better than any WR I had seen in a while. He had all the talent in the world, but he was an alcoholic, headcase. It's a shame. He could've been great. That is a good example of how fans just aren't in the loop on players' personal issues. 

There's always some kind of issue brought up a bout a high caliber player right before the draft. There was Josh Rosen's entitled attitude, Hopkins "fecal incident", Laremy Tunsil's gas mask bong photo and Jeffrey Simmons video of him viciously beating up some girl. That's just the ones I can think of off the top of my head. Who knows what it will be this year?

This year, it seems to be: Trevor is not neurotic and angry and insecure enough to be great.  Maturity, level-headedness and self-awareness has become a character flaw.
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#23

(04-18-2021, 09:58 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(04-18-2021, 08:26 AM)Bullseye Wrote: Laughing

I remember you chiding us "housepainters" for hating the Soward pick.

I also remember having the same concerns about Taylor early on.  He really didn't get going until like his 3rd regular season game-against the Ravens, as I recall.  he made that trademark cut back against the grain against them and took it to the house.  By then I knew he would be okay.

Chances are, I saw the same pass from Bortles you did and thought the same thing.  I remember doing something similar when Leftwich threw a GW TD pass in his first preseason game.

I guess the moral of the story is avoid immediate reactions?  I'm not sure how possible that is, TBH.

Oh, man, I wish I could see that post defending the Soward pick.  That must be an absolute classic!

It was an epic rant from you-to whatever extent you could ever be guilty of "ranting."

You were still pretty much a voice of reason, trying to get us to calm down.  You weren't so much vouching for his character or anything.  You were saying TC and company were professionals and they would have investigated him thoroughly, and that we were just house painters with an opinion.

I completely got it.


We had some great discussions on those AOL boards.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#24

Mine was Maurice Jones-Drew.  I hated the selection at the time.  First, I didn't see it as an immediate need.  Although getting older, I thought Fred Taylor would still be good for a couple more years.  That part, I got right.  Taylor was successful during MJD's rookie season and went to the pro-bowl (the only of his career) the following year.  Second, I thought MJD was a reach.  That part I blew.  I looked at the history of short running backs and saw that they had all pretty much failed in the NFL.  The pick was going against history.  However, it ended up that MJD broke history.  He was absolutely wonderful and even today remains the Jaguars best second round pick of all time and there's some good competition for it.  I was dead wrong on MJD's abilities.

On other side, I know there were multiple ones that I liked who turned out bad.  I would probably say Justin Blackmon was the one who I was most excited about who completely busted.  I still think he was extremely talented and would have been a good player.  It was the off the field issues that got to him.

Overall, I feel that I have been more right than wrong.  In regards to some of the ones being mentioned, I did like Taylor, Ramsey and Chark at the time.  With Chark, I remember watching his highlight tape and saw that many passes were being poorly thrown to him.  He would have the defender beat for an easy touchdown, but he had to slow down for an under thrown ball.  He would still make a nice gain, but many of those could have been touchdowns with a properly thrown ball.  In regards to R. Jay Soward, I hated the pick at the time.
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#25

I was very disappointed we drafted Fowler. I wanted Cooper or Williams. When he walked out in the gold shoes, I distinctly remember thinking “this guy is going to be a pain in the [BLEEP].”

I didn’t necessarily want Bortles, but I was excited when we picked him and I also liked Teddy that year. Thinking that we passed on all-pro talent for Blake still keeps me from getting too full of my opinions around draft time.
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#26

(04-18-2021, 02:48 PM)rufftime Wrote: I was very disappointed we drafted Fowler. I wanted Cooper or Williams. When he walked out in the gold shoes, I distinctly remember thinking “this guy is going to be a pain in the [BLEEP].”

How does this fit the topic since you were exactly right?
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#27

I thought Luke Joeckel would work out. Part blindly trusting Caldwell and part being a Texas A&M alumnus/homer.
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#28

(04-18-2021, 02:28 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: Mine was Maurice Jones-Drew.  I hated the selection at the time.  First, I didn't see it as an immediate need.  Although getting older, I thought Fred Taylor would still be good for a couple more years.  That part, I got right.  Taylor was successful during MJD's rookie season and went to the pro-bowl (the only of his career) the following year.  Second, I thought MJD was a reach.  That part I blew.  I looked at the history of short running backs and saw that they had all pretty much failed in the NFL.  The pick was going against history.  However, it ended up that MJD broke history.  He was absolutely wonderful and even today remains the Jaguars best second round pick of all time and there's some good competition for it.  I was dead wrong on MJD's abilities.

On other side, I know there were multiple ones that I liked who turned out bad.  I would probably say Justin Blackmon was the one who I was most excited about who completely busted.  I still think he was extremely talented and would have been a good player.  It was the off the field issues that got to him.

Overall, I feel that I have been more right than wrong.  In regards to some of the ones being mentioned, I did like Taylor, Ramsey and Chark at the time.  With Chark, I remember watching his highlight tape and saw that many passes were being poorly thrown to him.  He would have the defender beat for an easy touchdown, but he had to slow down for an under thrown ball.  He would still make a nice gain, but many of those could have been touchdowns with a properly thrown ball.  In regards to R. Jay Soward, I hated the pick at the time.

I didn't follow MJD in college.  When I saw his measurables, I thought he was a receiving back. 

Man did HE prove me wrong.  The first time he impressed me was actually in pass protection against Pittsburgh, because he hadn't shown much in that preseason.  A Steeler LB came in on the blitz.  MJD squared up and absolutely stoned him.  It wasn't as spectacular as his block on Merriman, but was quite effective none the less.  I think the next game agaisnt Washington, he had some big catches in the passing game.  After that, he was the MJD we grew to love.

In many cases,  fans end up being wrong on players in part because...we're fans.  Sometimes, our desire that the team hits on the pick will cloud our judgment on the player.  I know I try to withhold judgment/predictions to players I've seen pre-draft.  But there are times the team will draft someone I haven't studied, and somewhere over time, the hope will take over.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#29

(04-18-2021, 02:48 PM)rufftime Wrote: I was very disappointed we drafted Fowler.  I wanted Cooper or Williams.  When he walked out in the gold shoes, I distinctly remember thinking “this guy is going to be a pain in the [BLEEP].”

I didn’t necessarily want Bortles, but I was excited when we picked him and I also liked Teddy that year.  Thinking that we passed on all-pro talent for Blake still keeps me from getting too full of my opinions around draft time.

It's no surprise you wanted Williams during the 2015 draft.  To my recollection, he was by far the most popular pre draft choice on these boards.  As it turns out, he would have been a great pick for us.  Many were disappointed in the Fowler pick.  I was more receptive to it than others. I also did not care for his shoes, but I just thought he had no/poor taste in shoes and I wondered why in blue hell would anyone pay to be so tacky.  I didn't necessarily equate that to him being a pain for us.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#30
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2021, 04:24 PM by The Real Marty.)

(04-18-2021, 01:45 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(04-18-2021, 09:58 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Oh, man, I wish I could see that post defending the Soward pick.  That must be an absolute classic!

It was an epic rant from you-to whatever extent you could ever be guilty of "ranting."

You were still pretty much a voice of reason, trying to get us to calm down.  You weren't so much vouching for his character or anything.  You were saying TC and company were professionals and they would have investigated him thoroughly, and that we were just house painters with an opinion.

I completely got it.


We had some great discussions on those AOL boards.

Yes, we did.  I used to get pretty irritated by the criticism TC received.  I guess I sort of felt that by defending TC, I was defending the very existence of the franchise.  Which is pretty ridiculous, when you think about it.  But, in the early days of the internet, it seemed really really important.  

That was back when AOL charged by the minute!  Geezus, I had some big AOL bills.

[Image: ctcnZIjd7gdlWg63hPHldvVYjxTI8sDt_PvMZJ_f...70557615be]
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#31

(04-18-2021, 03:08 PM)Upper Wrote:
(04-18-2021, 02:48 PM)rufftime Wrote: I was very disappointed we drafted Fowler. I wanted Cooper or Williams. When he walked out in the gold shoes, I distinctly remember thinking “this guy is going to be a pain in the [BLEEP].”

How does this fit the topic since you were exactly right?

It means I need to improve my reading comprehension!

I suppose ppl were listing hits and misses over the course of the thread and I lost the original OP intention.

To your point, I remember being happy with the selection of Eben Britton. “This Gene Smith guy really gets it build from the trenches!”
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#32
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2021, 05:53 PM by Bullseye.)

(04-18-2021, 04:17 PM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(04-18-2021, 01:45 PM)Bullseye Wrote: It was an epic rant from you-to whatever extent you could ever be guilty of "ranting."

You were still pretty much a voice of reason, trying to get us to calm down.  You weren't so much vouching for his character or anything.  You were saying TC and company were professionals and they would have investigated him thoroughly, and that we were just house painters with an opinion.

I completely got it.


We had some great discussions on those AOL boards.

Yes, we did.  I used to get pretty irritated by the criticism TC received.  I guess I sort of felt that by defending TC, I was defending the very existence of the franchise.  Which is pretty ridiculous, when you think about it.  But, in the early days of the internet, it seemed really really important.  

That was back when AOL charged by the minute!  Geezus, I had some big AOL bills.

[Image: ctcnZIjd7gdlWg63hPHldvVYjxTI8sDt_PvMZJ_f...70557615be]

I used to curse those free AOL discs every time some ignorant Steelers fan would invade the board.   Laughing
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#33

Byron Leftwich by far. He is my most favorite college QB ever. I couldn't believe it when we got him.
[Image: images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSIM9bZmkezB9B4qD2qAtT...IGQHCZIPuA]
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#34

I liked Gabbert when we got him because before the draft I thought there was no way we were gonna get him. Kerrigan was my guy at 16(?). Btw I still remember Alfie was so sure Kerrigan was gonna be a huge bust, he said Kerrigan had no lower body strength lol.
"Treyvon Wallet is elite run defender and better overall than Aidan Hutchinson" 11/11/23
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#35

(04-17-2021, 04:50 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: With only 12 days until our most anticipated draft class ever, we have all indicated the players we covet as well as the ones we want the Jaguars to avoid. Over the 25 year history of the Jaguars, we all have been able to say, " I told you so" about a high pick the Jaguars chose to pass on as well as those who eventually became busts. However,, if you could name one player that you were TOTALLY WRONG about, who would it be?

Fred Taylor is my easy choice. When the Jaguars passed on Takeo Spikes, my favorite player in the the 1998 draft, to take an over-rated back from Florida I threw a major fit.  I certainly have been correct on many picks over the years (the law of averages), but thankfully Tom Coughlin made the choice he did. Spikes had an injury filled career and was never anything special.

is this in the entire draft, or just jags-specific?

Overall, I'd say I was guilty of dismissing Mahomes as a system QB, but I don't know that I ever subjected myself to watching Big12 football to get an honest look at his ability.

For the Jags? I did a dance when we moved up to get Gabbert. I was content thinking that we could land Kerrigan had we stayed put, but after the tacks took Locker, who I expected to pick Gabbert, the idea that we could have a top QB in the darft was unimaginable. I can recall there were a few (likely clickbait) mocks that had Gabbert going top 5 or even first (HA!), but I really thought Gene hit a stroke of good fortune when the tacks passed on him. Turns out both were collossal failures.
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#36

(04-18-2021, 03:12 PM)rpr52121 Wrote: I thought Luke Joeckel would work out. Part blindly trusting Caldwell and part being a Texas A&M alumnus/homer.

Yeah, I thought the Chiefs were morons for taking the MACtion kid over him. D'oh!
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#37
(This post was last modified: 04-19-2021, 09:16 AM by Mikey.)

(04-18-2021, 03:37 PM)Bullseye Wrote: I didn't follow MJD in college.  When I saw his measurables, I thought he was a receiving back. 

Man did HE prove me wrong.  The first time he impressed me was actually in pass protection against Pittsburgh, because he hadn't shown much in that preseason.  A Steeler LB came in on the blitz.  MJD squared up and absolutely stoned him.  It wasn't as spectacular as his block on Merriman, but was quite effective none the less.  I think the next game agaisnt Washington, he had some big catches in the passing game.  After that, he was the MJD we grew to love.

In many cases,  fans end up being wrong on players in part because...we're fans.  Sometimes, our desire that the team hits on the pick will cloud our judgment on the player.  I know I try to withhold judgment/predictions to players I've seen pre-draft.  But there are times the team will draft someone I haven't studied, and somewhere over time, the hope will take over.

I'll chip in with another UCLA failure to scout. 2006. I was back home in Ohio, listening to the darft on a clock radio in a back room because nobody in the family cares about sports. Our pick comes up, and I am shaking, knowing that Nick Mangold is there for the taking, a decade-long fixture at the position, and Brad Meester is getting long in the tooth. Do it Do it Do it. We pick Marcedes Lewis, TE, UCLA, and I utter a four-letter curse word at the top of my lungs. The Jets grabbed Mangold with the next pick, I shut the radio off, and didn't talk to anyone. I was convinced that we were a power running team, and we ended up with a move TE that wasn't going to fit at all in our offense. All credit to Lewis, he came in here, developed his blocking and he ended up being a better blocker than receiver in the long run.

I never spit fire or badmouthed him once we made the pick, but thought we would regret passing on Mangold for a long time (we did), and that Lewis wouldn't amount to much (he did).

(04-19-2021, 12:19 AM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: I liked Gabbert when we got him because before the draft I thought there was no way we were gonna get him. Kerrigan was my guy at 16(?). Btw I still remember Alfie was so sure Kerrigan was gonna be a huge bust, he said Kerrigan had no lower body strength lol.

/tips cap
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