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Last Minute Draft Predictions

#1
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2021, 04:11 PM by Bullseye.)

Although I will likely be spectacularly wrong with these....I'm willing to give it a shot or two.

1.  I think 2 of the first five of the Jaguars draft picks will go to defense.  It wouldn't surprise me to see Alim McNeil at 45.

2.  Baalke will orchestrate a small trade down from 25.

3.  Minshew will be traded.

What are your predictions?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#2

My prediction is that when the picks are announced, several posters on this message board will have a meltdown.

Other than that, my prediction is that at least 2 of the first 5 picks will be either offensive or defensive linemen. I'm going to take Urb at his word, that he puts a priority on the defensive line and the offensive line.
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#3

Urban and Trent trade picks 25,33 and 106 for the Falcons 4th overall to jump up and grab Kyle Pitts
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#4

(04-26-2021, 05:05 PM)johnnywynter Wrote: Urban and Trent trade picks 25,33 and 106 for the Falcons 4th overall to jump up and grab Kyle Pitts

I don't see that happening for a couple of reasons.

1.  That wouldn't be enough to pull off such a deal;

2.  UM has stated he wants 4-5 starters to come out of this draft.  Trading away the picks it would take to move up that far would generally defeat that purpose.

That said, having a guy described as a generational talent at QB throwing to a guy described as a generational talent at TE is appealing to me.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#5
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2021, 05:54 PM by johnnywynter.)

Might not be enough to outbid other teams, I agree. But it works out on the chart if you put 45 on there and remove 106. I just don't see anybody giving Atlanta full value. Might take 25,33 and 65 tho

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/d..._value.htm
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#6

(04-26-2021, 05:52 PM)johnnywynter Wrote: Might not be enough to outbid other teams, I agree. But it works out on the chart if you put 45 on there and remove 106. I just don't see anybody giving Atlanta full value. Might take 25,33 and 65 tho

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/d..._value.htm

According to this draft pick value chart, 25, 33, and 45 are not enough to get to pick #4.  

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp
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#7
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2021, 06:11 PM by Bullseye.)

(04-26-2021, 05:52 PM)johnnywynter Wrote: Might not be enough to outbid other teams, I agree. But it works out on the chart if you put 45 on there and remove 106. I just don't see anybody giving Atlanta full value. Might take 25,33 and 65 tho

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/d..._value.htm

I disagree.  I think other QB hungry teams like Denver may still be interested in trading up for either Fields or Lance (assuming Jones is gone at 3).  Their bids alone would likely drive up the price.

If Denver offers a deal, they are only coming up from 9.  SF gave up 3 #1 picks and a 3rd to go from 12 to 3.

If New England offers a deal, they are coming up from 15.

If it's Washington or Chicago, they are coming up from 19-20.

We'd have to pay a ton to come up from 25 to 4.

Of course, there's a chance Pitts could fall lower than 4.  If he lasts until 10-11, the cost to move up becomes more feasible, but there's still the issue of quantity that UM is looking for.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#8

Well it is just a reference really, and you're talking about 1750 points v. 1800. But one thing the chart does not take into account is the depth of the current draft. That could obviously be a double edged sword but I personally think that you have alot more players this year that have first round grades than we've had in prior drafts. While we can't know that for sure because we can't see teams boards, it just feels that way to me.
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#9
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2021, 06:18 PM by johnnywynter.)

(04-26-2021, 06:02 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(04-26-2021, 05:52 PM)johnnywynter Wrote: Might not be enough to outbid other teams, I agree. But it works out on the chart if you put 45 on there and remove 106. I just don't see anybody giving Atlanta full value. Might take 25,33 and 65 tho

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/d..._value.htm

I disagree.  I think other QB hungry teams like Denver may still be interested in trading up for either Fields or Lance (assuming Jones is gone at 3).  Their bids alone would likely drive up the price.

If Denver offers a deal, they are only coming up from 9.  SF gave up 3 #1 picks and a 3rd to go from 12 to 3.

If New England offers a deal, they are coming up from 15.

If it's Washington or Chicago, they are coming up from 19-20.

We'd have to pay a ton to come up from 25 to 4.

Of course, there's a chance Pitts could fall lower than 4.  If he lasts until 10-11, the cost to move up becomes more feasible, but there's still the issue of quantity that UM is looking for.
You are most likely correct, but personally I would rather have 2 sure things than a handful of prospects. Those two guys could drive an elite offense (i.e. Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce) for years to come. Probably why I'm an armchair GM instead of the real deal lol

If they traded the rest of our draft like a Ricky Williams deal to make the jump it wouldn't hurt my feelings
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#10
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2021, 06:58 PM by Bullseye.)

(04-26-2021, 06:15 PM)johnnywynter Wrote:
(04-26-2021, 06:02 PM)Bullseye Wrote: I disagree.  I think other QB hungry teams like Denver may still be interested in trading up for either Fields or Lance (assuming Jones is gone at 3).  Their bids alone would likely drive up the price.

If Denver offers a deal, they are only coming up from 9.  SF gave up 3 #1 picks and a 3rd to go from 12 to 3.

If New England offers a deal, they are coming up from 15.

If it's Washington or Chicago, they are coming up from 19-20.

We'd have to pay a ton to come up from 25 to 4.

Of course, there's a chance Pitts could fall lower than 4.  If he lasts until 10-11, the cost to move up becomes more feasible, but there's still the issue of quantity that UM is looking for.
You are most likely correct, but personally I would rather have 2 sure things than a handful of prospects. Those two guys could drive an elite offense (i.e. Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce) for years to come. Probably why I'm an armchair GM instead of the real deal lol

If they traded the rest of our draft like a Ricky Williams deal to make the jump it wouldn't hurt my feelings

(emphasis added)

I would despise this move with every fiber of my being.

Doing this would ruin an otherwise excellent draft and set TL's development back.  We'd still have no defense....no depth along the OL...no upgrades along the OL.  I would be pissed for a sizeable part of the remainder of the offseason.

If you cloned William Shakespeare such that you could set them up to write in three 8 hour shifts for a month, they could not adequately express my disgust for such a strategy.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#11
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2021, 07:04 PM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(04-26-2021, 05:05 PM)johnnywynter Wrote: Urban and Trent trade picks 25,33 and 106 for the Falcons 4th overall to jump up and grab Kyle Pitts

The Falcons would laugh us out of the building with that pathetic offer! We'd have to give up at least 3 first round picks and then some to get to #4. That's way to much for a TE. Even though he's the best TE I've seen in a very long time. We have way too many holes to fill.
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#12

Prediction #1: ESPN goes to Commercial early, and spends more time talking about Zach Wilson than Trevor Lawrence.
I mean it's ESPN. We expect it by now.

Prediction #2: One player everyone expects to go in round #1 will fall to Round #2 and the board will be clamoring for us to pick them. (We won't)
But we might trade #33 to another team who does...

Prediction #3: They'll cut to commercial during our second pick
Online is much more reliable.

Prediction #4: We draft at least one Wide Receiver
I mean this seems pretty likely.

Prediction #5: At least one Pundit on television will say that Justin Fields should have been drafted earlier, and that he'll be the best QB in the draft.
Cause the NFL hates the Jags. And ESPN loves drama.

Prediction #6: No Offensive Lineman in the first round unless we trade up
Not sure one will even be there that'd be worth it, but I think Meyer is okay with our o-line as it is.

Prediction #7: If we pick at #25, everyone will be surprised by who we pick because it'll largely be unexpected
Could be for any number of reasons.

Prediction #8: Some team trades up into the Top 10 for Trey Lance. It won't be the Patriots.
Belichick's Dog probably isn't interested in Quarterbacks. Maybe quarter pounders.

Prediction #9: Minshew will be packaged as some part of deal in a trade up.
I wouldn't be opposed.

Prediction #10: Our Draft will receive good grades all around from the Media regardless of how it turns out.
I mean we're getting Trevor Freakin' Lawrence.
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#13

(04-26-2021, 07:53 PM)The Eleventh Doctor Wrote: Prediction #1: ESPN goes to Commercial early, and spends more time talking about Zach Wilson than Trevor Lawrence.
I mean it's ESPN.  We expect it by now.  

Prediction #2: One player everyone expects to go in round #1 will fall to Round #2 and the board will be clamoring for us to pick them.  (We won't)
But we might trade #33 to another team who does...

Prediction #3: They'll cut to commercial during our second pick
Online is much more reliable.

Prediction #4: We draft at least one Wide Receiver
I mean this seems pretty likely.

Prediction #5: At least one Pundit on television will say that Justin Fields should have been drafted earlier, and that he'll be the best QB in the draft.
Cause the NFL hates the Jags.  And ESPN loves drama.

Prediction #6: No Offensive Lineman in the first round unless we trade up
Not sure one will even be there that'd be worth it, but I think Meyer is okay with our o-line as it is.

Prediction #7: If we pick at #25, everyone will be surprised by who we pick because it'll largely be unexpected
Could be for any number of reasons.

Prediction #8: Some team trades up into the Top 10 for Trey Lance.  It won't be the Patriots.
Belichick's Dog probably isn't interested in Quarterbacks.  Maybe quarter pounders.

Prediction #9: Minshew will be packaged as some part of deal in a trade up.
I wouldn't be opposed.

Prediction #10: Our Draft will receive good grades all around from the Media regardless of how it turns out.
I mean we're getting Trevor Freakin' Lawrence.

Pretty good predictions.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#14

(04-26-2021, 05:05 PM)johnnywynter Wrote: Urban and Trent trade picks 25,33 and 106 for the Falcons 4th overall to jump up and grab Kyle Pitts

puff puff pass, man. Don't bogart.
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#15

(04-26-2021, 07:53 PM)The Eleventh Doctor Wrote: Prediction #1: ESPN goes to Commercial early, and spends more time talking about Zach Wilson than Trevor Lawrence.
I mean it's ESPN.  We expect it by now.  

Prediction #2: One player everyone expects to go in round #1 will fall to Round #2 and the board will be clamoring for us to pick them.  (We won't)
But we might trade #33 to another team who does...

Prediction #3: They'll cut to commercial during our second pick
Online is much more reliable.

Prediction #4: We draft at least one Wide Receiver
I mean this seems pretty likely.

Prediction #5: At least one Pundit on television will say that Justin Fields should have been drafted earlier, and that he'll be the best QB in the draft.
Cause the NFL hates the Jags.  And ESPN loves drama.

Prediction #6: No Offensive Lineman in the first round unless we trade up
Not sure one will even be there that'd be worth it, but I think Meyer is okay with our o-line as it is.

Prediction #7: If we pick at #25, everyone will be surprised by who we pick because it'll largely be unexpected
Could be for any number of reasons.

Prediction #8: Some team trades up into the Top 10 for Trey Lance.  It won't be the Patriots.
Belichick's Dog probably isn't interested in Quarterbacks.  Maybe quarter pounders.

Prediction #9: Minshew will be packaged as some part of deal in a trade up.
I wouldn't be opposed.

Prediction #10: Our Draft will receive good grades all around from the Media regardless of how it turns out.
I mean we're getting Trevor Freakin' Lawrence.
A lot of ESPN hate in here..... Just watch the draft on NFL Network then lol
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#16

(04-26-2021, 05:52 PM)johnnywynter Wrote: Might not be enough to outbid other teams, I agree. But it works out on the chart if you put 45 on there and remove 106. I just don't see anybody giving Atlanta full value. Might take 25,33 and 65 tho

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/d..._value.htm

ATL is so tight against the cap I don't know that they would want a glut of picks, either. It's a bold prediction, I'll admit, but there is no reason to fritter away the entirety of your draft at one person.
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#17

(04-27-2021, 08:40 AM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(04-26-2021, 07:53 PM)The Eleventh Doctor Wrote: Prediction #1: ESPN goes to Commercial early, and spends more time talking about Zach Wilson than Trevor Lawrence.
I mean it's ESPN.  We expect it by now.  

Prediction #2: One player everyone expects to go in round #1 will fall to Round #2 and the board will be clamoring for us to pick them.  (We won't)
But we might trade #33 to another team who does...

Prediction #3: They'll cut to commercial during our second pick
Online is much more reliable.

Prediction #4: We draft at least one Wide Receiver
I mean this seems pretty likely.

Prediction #5: At least one Pundit on television will say that Justin Fields should have been drafted earlier, and that he'll be the best QB in the draft.
Cause the NFL hates the Jags.  And ESPN loves drama.

Prediction #6: No Offensive Lineman in the first round unless we trade up
Not sure one will even be there that'd be worth it, but I think Meyer is okay with our o-line as it is.

Prediction #7: If we pick at #25, everyone will be surprised by who we pick because it'll largely be unexpected
Could be for any number of reasons.

Prediction #8: Some team trades up into the Top 10 for Trey Lance.  It won't be the Patriots.
Belichick's Dog probably isn't interested in Quarterbacks.  Maybe quarter pounders.

Prediction #9: Minshew will be packaged as some part of deal in a trade up.
I wouldn't be opposed.

Prediction #10: Our Draft will receive good grades all around from the Media regardless of how it turns out.
I mean we're getting Trevor Freakin' Lawrence.
A lot of ESPN hate in here..... Just watch the draft on NFL Network then lol
They have sadly gotten worse over the years.  In fact, last year they combined their coverage.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#18

1) The Jags screw up 90% of the mocks out there and pass on Trevon Moehrig at 25
2) An OT nobody expected to make it to the second round does not get drafted on day 1. The Jags pass on him at 33 too, infuriating a few on the board.
3) Jags wait until Day 3 to get a WR, infuriating half the board.
4) The Jaguars will not trade back, but will execute at least one trade
5) Urbz does not draft anyone from Ohio State
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#19
(This post was last modified: 04-27-2021, 08:56 AM by Dimson.)

I predict someone will drop to 25 that no one thought will be available and we will draft them just on value alone. Regardless of position. Except QB of course.
[Image: images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSIM9bZmkezB9B4qD2qAtT...IGQHCZIPuA]
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#20

I am going to go specific;

We trade Minshew to Washington, for their 1st round at 19 to take Jenkins/Darrisaw/Slater (the latter two is unlikely) In return they get 25, a forth rounder in 2022 and potentially a 4th this year as well.
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