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Draft grades

#61

I want the team to succeed. I don't like Urban Meyer or the direction he and Baalke took the team in this draft because picks 2,3,4, and 5 were painfully acquired draft capital spent on players of lower value that what was available. I think Urban's style is wrong for the NFL and we're in for a similar ride as Saban with the Dolphins. I think the free agency group was fine and plugged some serious holes, and I like the assistants hired for the most part. I just hate to think that TLaw is here and going to be wasted on another college coach who couldn't make the jump to pros.

I graded the draft a C- overall only because I think Lawrence is the legit superstar who lives up to the hype. But that pick also took almost no thought or wisdom, and the others that did weren't nearly as good.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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#62

(05-02-2021, 10:17 AM)jaglou53 Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 09:26 AM)Bullseye Wrote: The only problem I have with this  is the opportunity cost analysis.

All of those guys we discussed at 25 were still there for us at 33.  To me, that's a sign they evaluated and ranked the boards properly at that stage of the draft.  From a pure talent standpoint, few people believe Etienne was not worthy of a late 1st round pick.  All of those guys came off the board after 33 and before 45.  The "opportunity" wasn't lost until after 33.  But with that, it's not as though we didn't get a good player at 33.  An unexpected one, perhaps.  A guy at a position of relative strength, perhaps.

I really believe the Campbell selection was due to a combination of the belief he will improve his ball skills (making him a 1st round talent) and the concerns about D.J. Henderson. If the rumors are true about him, then selecting Campbell at 33 makes a lot of sense. I hope they are rumors and nothing more since that would make Caldwell's selection of him no better than the Taven Bryan pick.

This may very well be true.

Baalke and UM keep being asked about Henderson in these press conferences, though none of the reporters posing the questions have said anything directly about mental health issues or Henderson wanting to quit.  They've danced around it, but it's apparent they've heard these rumors too. 

Of course, there's also the possibility that none of these rumors impacted the Jaguars decision at all.  It's entirely possible that their evaluations and player rankings led to the conclusion that Campbell was the best player on the board at the time of the pick.  Might that evaluation depart from the paradigm of the fans?  Sure.  But it's possible it was made solely on their own internal processing.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#63

(05-02-2021, 10:30 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: I want the team to succeed. I don't like Urban Meyer or the direction he and Baalke took the team in this draft because picks 2,3,4, and 5 were painfully acquired draft capital spent on players of lower value that what was available. I think Urban's style is wrong for the NFL and we're in for a similar ride as Saban with the Dolphins. I think the free agency group was fine and plugged some serious holes, and I like the assistants hired for the most part. I just hate to think that TLaw is here and going to be wasted on another college coach who couldn't make the jump to pros.

I graded the draft a C- overall only because I think Lawrence is the legit superstar who lives up to the hype. But that pick also took almost no thought or wisdom, and the others that did weren't nearly as good.

I was initially skeptical of Urban Meyer.  After seeing him bring in several assistants and coordinators with NFL experience, hearing some of his comments, and the comments of some of the players like Chark who have responded to his coaching, I am less skeptical of him now.  He still has to prove himself here, but I'm more receptive to UM than I was before.  Baalke has farther to go to get my confidence.

Like you, I cringe at the possibility that TL could be wasted and pray it doesn't happen here.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#64
(This post was last modified: 05-02-2021, 10:44 AM by ChrisJagBoy.)

(05-02-2021, 10:30 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: I want the team to succeed. I don't like Urban Meyer or the direction he and Baalke took the team in this draft because picks 2,3,4, and 5 were painfully acquired draft capital spent on players of lower value that what was available. I think Urban's style is wrong for the NFL and we're in for a similar ride as Saban with the Dolphins. I think the free agency group was fine and plugged some serious holes, and I like the assistants hired for the most part. I just hate to think that TLaw is here and going to be wasted on another college coach who couldn't make the jump to pros.

I graded the draft a C- overall only because I think Lawrence is the legit superstar who lives up to the hype. But that pick also took almost no thought or wisdom, and the others that did weren't nearly as good.

What is Draft Value exactly?

Clowney was the consensus #1 pick in 2014. Imagine if they took Zack Martin who went #16. Or Aaron Donald who went #14?

Everyone would clown them, but they would have been correct either way in comparision to the bust clowney. Their value is unknown until they play.

(05-02-2021, 10:38 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 10:30 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: I want the team to succeed. I don't like Urban Meyer or the direction he and Baalke took the team in this draft because picks 2,3,4, and 5 were painfully acquired draft capital spent on players of lower value that what was available. I think Urban's style is wrong for the NFL and we're in for a similar ride as Saban with the Dolphins. I think the free agency group was fine and plugged some serious holes, and I like the assistants hired for the most part. I just hate to think that TLaw is here and going to be wasted on another college coach who couldn't make the jump to pros.

I graded the draft a C- overall only because I think Lawrence is the legit superstar who lives up to the hype. But that pick also took almost no thought or wisdom, and the others that did weren't nearly as good.

I was initially skeptical of Urban Meyer.  After seeing him bring in several assistants and coordinators with NFL experience, hearing some of his comments, and the comments of some of the players like Chark who have responded to his coaching, I am less skeptical of him now.  He still has to prove himself here, but I'm more receptive to UM than I was before.  Baalke has farther to go to get my confidence.

Like you, I cringe at the possibility that TL could be wasted and pray it doesn't happen here.

Let's wait to see if Lawrence is even good before we worry about him being wasted. He has no excuse this year, he's got talent all over the offense.
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#65

(05-02-2021, 10:43 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 10:30 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: I want the team to succeed. I don't like Urban Meyer or the direction he and Baalke took the team in this draft because picks 2,3,4, and 5 were painfully acquired draft capital spent on players of lower value that what was available. I think Urban's style is wrong for the NFL and we're in for a similar ride as Saban with the Dolphins. I think the free agency group was fine and plugged some serious holes, and I like the assistants hired for the most part. I just hate to think that TLaw is here and going to be wasted on another college coach who couldn't make the jump to pros.

I graded the draft a C- overall only because I think Lawrence is the legit superstar who lives up to the hype. But that pick also took almost no thought or wisdom, and the others that did weren't nearly as good.

What is Draft Value exactly?

Clowney was the consensus #1 pick in 2014. Imagine if they took Zack Martin who went #16. Or Aaron Donald who went #14?

Everyone would clown them, but they would have been correct either way in comparision to the bust clowney. Their value is unknown until they play.

(05-02-2021, 10:38 AM)Bullseye Wrote: I was initially skeptical of Urban Meyer.  After seeing him bring in several assistants and coordinators with NFL experience, hearing some of his comments, and the comments of some of the players like Chark who have responded to his coaching, I am less skeptical of him now.  He still has to prove himself here, but I'm more receptive to UM than I was before.  Baalke has farther to go to get my confidence.

Like you, I cringe at the possibility that TL could be wasted and pray it doesn't happen here.

Let's wait to see if Lawrence is even good before we worry about him being wasted. He has no excuse this year, he's got talent all over the offense.

I don't know if he has talent "all over the offense."  Tackles are a huge question mark as is TE.

That said, you are absolutely right in that he is anything but a proven NFL commodity, and he does have SOME talent with which to work.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#66

(05-02-2021, 10:48 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 10:43 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: What is Draft Value exactly?

Clowney was the consensus #1 pick in 2014. Imagine if they took Zack Martin who went #16. Or Aaron Donald who went #14?

Everyone would clown them, but they would have been correct either way in comparision to the bust clowney. Their value is unknown until they play.


Let's wait to see if Lawrence is even good before we worry about him being wasted. He has no excuse this year, he's got talent all over the offense.

I don't know if he has talent "all over the offense."  Tackles are a huge question mark as is TE.

That said, you are absolutely right in that he is anything but a proven NFL commodity, and he does have SOME talent with which to work.

So what do you think the chances are that the Jags get a TE (via trade) before the start of camp?
[Image: SaKG4.gif]
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#67
(This post was last modified: 05-02-2021, 10:56 AM by ChrisJagBoy.)

(05-02-2021, 10:48 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 10:43 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: What is Draft Value exactly?

Clowney was the consensus #1 pick in 2014. Imagine if they took Zack Martin who went #16. Or Aaron Donald who went #14?

Everyone would clown them, but they would have been correct either way in comparision to the bust clowney. Their value is unknown until they play.


Let's wait to see if Lawrence is even good before we worry about him being wasted. He has no excuse this year, he's got talent all over the offense.

I don't know if he has talent "all over the offense."  Tackles are a huge question mark as is TE.

That said, you are absolutely right in that he is anything but a proven NFL commodity, and he does have SOME talent with which to work.

I guess it's opinions here and there but it would appear he will have 2 starting caliber RBs, a 3rd string rb who is a low end starter for some teams, imo a solid OL (not amazing) and a pretty deep WR unit, which was good last year and Marvin Jones honestly may be better than what we had. Who really knows how good Chark/Shenault could be with a good QB they've never had one. Yes the tackles had a bad year last season but at the same time, we had QB's holding the ball too long and making poor decisions so if we are to assume TLaw is a potential elite QB, they will have a better year even if they haven't improved... but they are also young and have the ability to improve. The only real thing we are lacking is a TE and we shall see how much that hurts us.

(05-02-2021, 10:52 AM)WingerDinger Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 10:48 AM)Bullseye Wrote: I don't know if he has talent "all over the offense."  Tackles are a huge question mark as is TE.

That said, you are absolutely right in that he is anything but a proven NFL commodity, and he does have SOME talent with which to work.

So what do you think the chances are that the Jags get a TE (via trade) before the start of camp?

Honestly, I feel like theres a strong chance of it based on how the draft went. I feel like they would have drafted one earlier if they didn't have some other plan. I'm hoping it's not that Tebow rumor tho that would be the first move that makes me question our new FO. Part of me thinks Tebows workout however was just Urban giving his friend a chance and wont actually happen.
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#68

On a side note i'd like to point out something regarding the O-line. How many times did a OT/OG get paid big money in free agency coming off playing with Peyton Manning/Tom Brady only for everyone to find out they were actual garbage? Good QBs can make average O-Line players look elite. And the opposite is also true.
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#69

(05-02-2021, 10:52 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 10:48 AM)Bullseye Wrote: I don't know if he has talent "all over the offense."  Tackles are a huge question mark as is TE.

That said, you are absolutely right in that he is anything but a proven NFL commodity, and he does have SOME talent with which to work.

I guess it's opinions here and there but it would appear he will have 2 starting caliber RBs, a 3rd string rb who is a low end starter for some teams, imo a solid OL (not amazing) and a pretty deep WR unit, which was good last year and Marvin Jones honestly may be better than what we had. Who really knows how good Chark/Shenault could be with a good QB they've never had one. Yes the tackles had a bad year last season but at the same time, we had QB's holding the ball too long and making poor decisions so if we are to assume TLaw is a potential elite QB, they will have a better year even if they haven't improved... but they are also young and have the ability to improve. The only real thing we are lacking is a TE and we shall see how much that hurts us.


Put this another way...while I think we have holes at T and TE barring the successful ascent of Little to starter, I certainly do not disagree there have been QBs that have been put in worse situations as it pertains to surrounding offensive talent.  Aikman, Bortles and  Darnold are glaring examples of that.  TL has some stuff to work with.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#70

(05-02-2021, 10:43 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 10:30 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: I want the team to succeed. I don't like Urban Meyer or the direction he and Baalke took the team in this draft because picks 2,3,4, and 5 were painfully acquired draft capital spent on players of lower value that what was available. I think Urban's style is wrong for the NFL and we're in for a similar ride as Saban with the Dolphins. I think the free agency group was fine and plugged some serious holes, and I like the assistants hired for the most part. I just hate to think that TLaw is here and going to be wasted on another college coach who couldn't make the jump to pros.

I graded the draft a C- overall only because I think Lawrence is the legit superstar who lives up to the hype. But that pick also took almost no thought or wisdom, and the others that did weren't nearly as good.

What is Draft Value exactly?

Clowney was the consensus #1 pick in 2014. Imagine if they took Zack Martin who went #16. Or Aaron Donald who went #14?

Everyone would clown them, but they would have been correct either way in comparision to the bust clowney. Their value is unknown until they play.

(05-02-2021, 10:38 AM)Bullseye Wrote: I was initially skeptical of Urban Meyer.  After seeing him bring in several assistants and coordinators with NFL experience, hearing some of his comments, and the comments of some of the players like Chark who have responded to his coaching, I am less skeptical of him now.  He still has to prove himself here, but I'm more receptive to UM than I was before.  Baalke has farther to go to get my confidence.

Like you, I cringe at the possibility that TL could be wasted and pray it doesn't happen here.

Let's wait to see if Lawrence is even good before we worry about him being wasted. He has no excuse this year, he's got talent all over the offense.

Draft value is not picking a scat back and a 4th cornerback in the first 33 picks when you don't have good starters at other positions like OT and TE with talented guys on the board there. I know that's hard for you to get, but we heard ya'll piss and moan about how bad LF27 was and here you are defending the same thing again five years later.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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#71

(05-02-2021, 10:30 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 10:17 AM)jaglou53 Wrote: I really believe the Campbell selection was due to a combination of the belief he will improve his ball skills (making him a 1st round talent) and the concerns about D.J. Henderson. If the rumors are true about him, then selecting Campbell at 33 makes a lot of sense. I hope they are rumors and nothing more since that would make Caldwell's selection of him no better than the Taven Bryan pick.

This may very well be true.

Baalke and UM keep being asked about Henderson in these press conferences, though none of the reporters posing the questions have said anything directly about mental health issues or Henderson wanting to quit.  They've danced around it, but it's apparent they've heard these rumors too. 

Of course, there's also the possibility that none of these rumors impacted the Jaguars decision at all.  It's entirely possible that their evaluations and player rankings led to the conclusion that Campbell was the best player on the board at the time of the pick.  Might that evaluation depart from the paradigm of the fans?  Sure.  But it's possible it was made solely on their own internal processing.
Very true. Many evaluators had Campbell rated in the top 35 players in the draft.
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#72

(05-02-2021, 10:59 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: On a side note i'd like to point out something regarding the O-line. How many times did a OT/OG get paid big money in free agency coming off playing with Peyton Manning/Tom Brady only for everyone to find out they were actual garbage? Good QBs can make average O-Line players look elite. And the opposite is also true.

I don't recall either the Colts or Patriots losing too many free agents from the OL over the years.  Damien Woody is one that leaps to mind, as he left the Patriots for the Jets, but as I recall he wasn't bad for them.  Trent Brown is another guy who left, but the Raiders shipped him back this year.  I think the Colts did a pretty good job retaining their OL talent while Manning was there.

But your underlying premise that a good QB can improve OL play while a bad QB can worsen it is sound.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#73

(05-02-2021, 11:05 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 10:59 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: On a side note i'd like to point out something regarding the O-line. How many times did a OT/OG get paid big money in free agency coming off playing with Peyton Manning/Tom Brady only for everyone to find out they were actual garbage? Good QBs can make average O-Line players look elite. And the opposite is also true.

I don't recall either the Colts or Patriots losing too many free agents from the OL over the years.  Damien Woody is one that leaps to mind, as he left the Patriots for the Jets, but as I recall he wasn't bad for them.  Trent Brown is another guy who left, but the Raiders shipped him back this year.  I think the Colts did a pretty good job retaining their OL talent while Manning was there.

But your underlying premise that a good QB can improve OL play while a bad QB can worsen it is sound.

Zane Beadles just for an easy refrence. Came off playing with Peyton in Denver.
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#74

(05-02-2021, 11:08 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 11:05 AM)Bullseye Wrote: I don't recall either the Colts or Patriots losing too many free agents from the OL over the years.  Damien Woody is one that leaps to mind, as he left the Patriots for the Jets, but as I recall he wasn't bad for them.  Trent Brown is another guy who left, but the Raiders shipped him back this year.  I think the Colts did a pretty good job retaining their OL talent while Manning was there.

But your underlying premise that a good QB can improve OL play while a bad QB can worsen it is sound.

Zane Beadles just for an easy refrence. Came off playing with Peyton in Denver.

If you watched him play in Denver he was pretty bad there too.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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#75

(05-02-2021, 11:02 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 10:43 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: What is Draft Value exactly?

Clowney was the consensus #1 pick in 2014. Imagine if they took Zack Martin who went #16. Or Aaron Donald who went #14?

Everyone would clown them, but they would have been correct either way in comparision to the bust clowney. Their value is unknown until they play.


Let's wait to see if Lawrence is even good before we worry about him being wasted. He has no excuse this year, he's got talent all over the offense.

Draft value is not picking a scat back and a 4th cornerback in the first 33 picks when you don't have good starters at other positions like OT and TE with talented guys on the board there. I know that's hard for you to get, but we heard ya'll piss and moan about how bad LF27 was and here you are defending the same thing again five years later.

Wasn't me defending LF27, I wanted one of the QBs. Tho I will say, to me ETN is a better prospect than Fournette and we took him at the end of rd 1, vs 4th overall.
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#76

(05-02-2021, 11:08 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 11:05 AM)Bullseye Wrote: I don't recall either the Colts or Patriots losing too many free agents from the OL over the years.  Damien Woody is one that leaps to mind, as he left the Patriots for the Jets, but as I recall he wasn't bad for them.  Trent Brown is another guy who left, but the Raiders shipped him back this year.  I think the Colts did a pretty good job retaining their OL talent while Manning was there.

But your underlying premise that a good QB can improve OL play while a bad QB can worsen it is sound.

Zane Beadles just for an easy refrence. Came off playing with Peyton in Denver.

Zane Beadles was a borderline starter for the Broncos. He was always the weakest link on the O-Line in Denver. No one considered him really good. He was always serviceable at best and he was an OG. It's a lot easier to cover bad play by an OG than it is to cover bad play by an OT.
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#77

(05-02-2021, 11:08 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 11:05 AM)Bullseye Wrote: I don't recall either the Colts or Patriots losing too many free agents from the OL over the years.  Damien Woody is one that leaps to mind, as he left the Patriots for the Jets, but as I recall he wasn't bad for them.  Trent Brown is another guy who left, but the Raiders shipped him back this year.  I think the Colts did a pretty good job retaining their OL talent while Manning was there.

But your underlying premise that a good QB can improve OL play while a bad QB can worsen it is sound.

Zane Beadles just for an easy refrence. Came off playing with Peyton in Denver.

I was thinking more about the Colts days, but this is a fair point.  Beadles was awful for us.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#78

(05-02-2021, 11:10 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 11:08 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: Zane Beadles just for an easy refrence. Came off playing with Peyton in Denver.

If you watched him play in Denver he was pretty bad there too.

That's the point. He was a bad player in general but he was exposed once he came to play with an incompetent QB.
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#79
(This post was last modified: 05-02-2021, 11:17 AM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(05-02-2021, 11:13 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 11:02 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: Draft value is not picking a scat back and a 4th cornerback in the first 33 picks when you don't have good starters at other positions like OT and TE with talented guys on the board there. I know that's hard for you to get, but we heard ya'll piss and moan about how bad LF27 was and here you are defending the same thing again five years later.

Wasn't me defending LF27, I wanted one of the QBs. Tho I will say, to me ETN is a better prospect than Fournette and we took him at the end of rd 1, vs 4th overall.

I was screaming for us to trade down and take Ryan Ramczyk instead of Fournette. People thought I was crazy.
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#80

(05-02-2021, 11:13 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(05-02-2021, 11:08 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: Zane Beadles just for an easy refrence. Came off playing with Peyton in Denver.

Zane Beadles was a borderline starter for the Broncos. He was always the weakest link on the O-Line in Denver. No one considered him really good. He was always serviceable at best and he was an OG. It's a lot easier to cover bad play by an OG than it is to cover bad play by an OT.

Nate Solder is another example. I used Beadles for familiarity.
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