This is why BAP is a myth.

Yeah. 
The instances that GMs actually pick based purely are BAP are much more rare than those that involve their biases and perceived needs. 

I know tons of folks believe something to the contrary - but GMs are much more interested in value than pure BAP regardless of the idealistic words they may utter at a podium in front of reporters.

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This is why BAP is a myth.

It's not a myth if you take your top guy.  People's top guys will be different as we have seen even on this board, everyone's board is not the same.

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Getting back on track here - here's another blurb about Moses returning to practice.
I really hope he gets to see the field before the season wraps. Would be cool to get some idea of his recovery/ability.

https://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2021/12...jury-list/

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So who do you think was his BPA on his board that he passed up for "need"?  I think Etieene was the top guy on their board.  They wanted Toney bit he was gone. Those are the top of guys Meyer likes the most.  Athletic, game breaking speed guys.  Balke mentioned multiple times that they were going to take the top guy on their board regardless of position, their drafted looked exactly like what he said he was going to do

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The playmakers and guys with game breaking speed are going to be the top players on Myers board

Meyer took his perceived need. Period.

 I couldn't give less of a damn what that idiot's board looked like or what he likes the most. 
If you think trying to explain how he overvalues traits isn't just as bad as reaching for need, I'm at a loss to help you see this clearly. 

And if you believe a word out of Baalke's mouth when Meyer was running the show, that's on you as well.

I couldn't give a damn what his board looks like either but I just know the types of players he likes the best and who he would have at the top of his board.  He even said they wanted Toney.  I know you don't believe anything they say but I believe if Toney was there they would of taken him.  Myers top guys are game breaking, athletic speed guys.  I wanted Elijah Moore who would of fit that bill as well but next for that type of player is probably Etienne.  I still think Etienne is going to be a beast for us if he comes back 100%.  We can use JRob and Etieene just like the Browns use Chubb and Hunt and we can extend Jrob and have both guys for the next 5 years if we want and they continue to play at a high level.  I think Elijah Moore will be an elite WR if he can stay healthy and Zack Wilson can be good

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When i see stories like this i always think back to Myles Jack at draft time. Was a top 5 pick but due to his knee issues and there being no way he could play more than 3 seasons fell all the way to the 2nd round. Hes had no issues of note with that injury since hes been here and is still going.

I wish Dylan Moses the same outcome and we are so desperate at LB for some quality. Weve got a lot of holes on this roster and are still in that position that every pick and FA has to be a success which is a tough spot to be in.

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When i see stories like this i always think back to Myles Jack at draft time. Was a top 5 pick but due to his knee issues and there being no way he could play more than 3 seasons fell all the way to the 2nd round. Hes had no issues of note with that injury since hes been here and is still going.

I wish Dylan Moses the same outcome and we are so desperate at LB for some quality. Weve got a lot of holes on this roster and are still in that position that every pick and FA has to be a success which is a tough spot to be in.

This ^^  
  I doubt he plays this week but if we could see him play in the last 2 games we might get a feel for him that alleviates the needs at one of the ILB spots next year. We still would need another one though. So one or two OTs needed in the offseason, at least one guard and a center (Linder is too often injured for my likes) are needed as well. So 3 OL, 1 ILB, at least 2 WRs a safety and another edge rusher. Someone else mention a healthy O'Shag and Arnold made them comfortable about TE. When you consider the 2 blockers in Manhertz and Farrell I agree. That means 8 players minimum to add to the roster. Between FA and the draft it is still a tall order. Not to mention a second OT (unless you tag Cam again), another OLB, a CB and maybe another ILb you're looking at 12-14 players at a starting level instead of 8 and I just don't see that much talent coming in the door in one off season.

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When i see stories like this i always think back to Myles Jack at draft time. Was a top 5 pick but due to his knee issues and there being no way he could play more than 3 seasons fell all the way to the 2nd round. Hes had no issues of note with that injury since hes been here and is still going.

I wish Dylan Moses the same outcome and we are so desperate at LB for some quality. Weve got a lot of holes on this roster and are still in that position that every pick and FA has to be a success which is a tough spot to be in.

This ^^  
  I doubt he plays this week but if we could see him play in the last 2 games we might get a feel for him that alleviates the needs at one of the ILB spots next year. We still would need another one though. So one or two OTs needed in the offseason, at least one guard and a center (Linder is too often injured for my likes) are needed as well. So 3 OL, 1 ILB, at least 2 WRs a safety and another edge rusher. Someone else mention a healthy O'Shag and Arnold made them comfortable about TE. When you consider the 2 blockers in Manhertz and Farrell I agree. That means 8 players minimum to add to the roster. Between FA and the draft it is still a tall order. Not to mention a second OT (unless you tag Cam again), another OLB, a CB and maybe another ILb you're looking at 12-14 players at a starting level instead of 8 and I just don't see that much talent coming in the door in one off season.

O'Shaugnessy has made more bad plays than good ones since his return unfortunately. 
I'd not sit on my hands addressing that position group. 

I know the list of needs is LONG and it would be great to cross that one off, but...  I'm not as optimistic. 
I'd be thinking of at least a mid-tier FA signing and maybe packaging two of those 6th rounders to move up and take a TE in the mid rounds if something presents itself.

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This ^^  
  I doubt he plays this week but if we could see him play in the last 2 games we might get a feel for him that alleviates the needs at one of the ILB spots next year. We still would need another one though. So one or two OTs needed in the offseason, at least one guard and a center (Linder is too often injured for my likes) are needed as well. So 3 OL, 1 ILB, at least 2 WRs a safety and another edge rusher. Someone else mention a healthy O'Shag and Arnold made them comfortable about TE. When you consider the 2 blockers in Manhertz and Farrell I agree. That means 8 players minimum to add to the roster. Between FA and the draft it is still a tall order. Not to mention a second OT (unless you tag Cam again), another OLB, a CB and maybe another ILb you're looking at 12-14 players at a starting level instead of 8 and I just don't see that much talent coming in the door in one off season.

O'Shaugnessy has made more bad plays than good ones since his return unfortunately. 
I'd not sit on my hands addressing that position group. 

I know the list of needs is LONG and it would be great to cross that one off, but...  I'm not as optimistic. 
I'd be thinking of at least a mid-tier FA signing and maybe packaging two of those 6th rounders to move up and take a TE in the mid rounds if something presents itself.

That's fair. My reasoning was that if both O'Shag and Arnold are in the game at the same time, both will be considered a receiving threat and hopefully frees up a WR or RB. Obviously pass oriented situations and the more stress on a defensive secondary, the better chance Trevor has for finding an open man. But sure, trade some late picks to move up and get a mid tier TE works too.

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This draft needs to be wr and o line. It's all about getting #16 everything he needs for season 2. With the draft and free agency, the jags can put together a team that can make a run at the playoffs soon if they hit right

Agreed.

My question is whether the greater emphasis/priority should go to the offensive line or receivers/TE in terms of draft position and numerically.

Were it up to me right now, I'd focus early on WRs/TEs, and bolster OL in the mid rounds.

get the big guys early.

How many UDFA linemen end up successes? How many UDFA receivers?

Of course if you have a game-breaking WR available, jump at the opportunity. but it's a lot easier to find a receiver (this season is a perfect example) than a blocker.

That, and TLaw appeared to play a lot better this week, whether due to lack of pass rush, faster release plays, or better blocking. Give the kid time and he can do his thing.

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Agreed.

My question is whether the greater emphasis/priority should go to the offensive line or receivers/TE in terms of draft position and numerically.

Were it up to me right now, I'd focus early on WRs/TEs, and bolster OL in the mid rounds.

get the big guys early.

How many UDFA linemen end up successes? How many UDFA receivers?

Of course if you have a game-breaking WR available, jump at the opportunity. but it's a lot easier to find a receiver (this season is a perfect example) than a blocker.

That, and TLaw appeared to play a lot better this week, whether due to lack of pass rush, faster release plays, or better blocking. Give the kid time and he can do his thing.

I value protection over receivers - hopefully FA yields protection.

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The Etienne pick was 100% a needs-based pick from Meyer. No doubt at all. 

He had zero clue what kind of back he had in Robinson and no intention of leaning on him.
Additionally, he was certain his offensive strategy would not work without someone in that hybrid Scatback/WR/Gadget role - so he drafted one straightaway.

I have high hopes the next regime can utilize Etienne to his potential and he could be a great player, but it was a needs-based pick all the way, and a pretty [BLEEP] stupid one at that when you consider what we could have gotten instead.

So who do you think was his BPA on his board that he passed up for "need"?  I think Etieene was the top guy on their board.  They wanted Toney bit he was gone. Those are the top of guys Meyer likes the most.  Athletic, game breaking speed guys.  Balke mentioned multiple times that they were going to take the top guy on their board regardless of position, their drafted looked exactly like what he said he was going to do

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The playmakers and guys with game breaking speed are going to be the top players on Myers board

so we're starting this cycle already?

What's to say need/perceived need didn't artificially inflate Etienne's rating to the top of their board, whether warranted or not? Urbz already said that they were targeting Toney, so they were seeking a mold, rather than weighing individuals or position groups at that pick. The head scratching nature of either preference was that a month prior they threw around 7M per at a guy who was cut in that very mold (Agnew).

It's the same criticism we've had of Dave for his years here, too. The illusion of need carried so much leverage, especially in the early rounds, that we often appeared to reach for picks, but as the darft continued, the value started weighing over need.

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Getting back on track here - here's another blurb about Moses returning to practice.
I really hope he gets to see the field  before the season wraps. Would be cool to get some idea of his recovery/ability.

https://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2021/12...jury-list/

I think it would be a huge boost to his confidence and offseason effort if he can see the field before season's end.

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get the big guys early.

How many UDFA linemen end up successes? How many UDFA receivers?

Of course if you have a game-breaking WR available, jump at the opportunity. but it's a lot easier to find a receiver (this season is a perfect example) than a blocker.

That, and TLaw appeared to play a lot better this week, whether due to lack of pass rush, faster release plays, or better blocking. Give the kid time and he can do his thing.

I value protection over receivers - hopefully FA yields protection.

Normally I would agree but this is the worst group of receivers that I have ever seen on this team...and that's saying something.

I think it's a tossup.

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I value protection over receivers - hopefully FA yields protection.

Normally I would agree but this is the worst group of receivers that I have ever seen on this team...and that's saying something.

I think it's a tossup.

Talent acquisition has been so bad that essentially every position group except maybe defensive back and QB needs talent upgrading. The team just needs to get as many high quality players signed as possible, even if it takes overpaying. If that means you can address all needs then good, but at least some needs have to be addressed. Also if the right player is available in a reasonable trade then make the trade.

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I value protection over receivers - hopefully FA yields protection.

Normally I would agree but this is the worst group of receivers that I have ever seen on this team...and that's saying something.

I think it's a tossup.

I don’t know. It’s been worse. There were the days when Sims-Walker was the top guy, and Reggie Williams and Matt Jones were taking up space on the field but not doing a whole lot.

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"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

Normally I would agree but this is the worst group of receivers that I have ever seen on this team...and that's saying something.

I think it's a tossup.

I don’t know. It’s been worse. There were the days when Sims-Walker was the top guy, and Reggie Williams and Matt Jones were taking up space on the field but not doing a whole lot.

And every one of those guys is better than whoever we're calling number 2 behind Marvin Jones.

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How many UDFA linemen end up successes? How many UDFA receivers?

I was expecting the easy answer to be UDFA receivers, but surprisingly I think the answer is UDFA lineman. Brian Waters, Nate Newton, Larry Little, and Jason Peters are all HoF caliber UDFA lineman. There are some good UDFA WRs for sure...Welker and Rod Smith most notably, but I think UDFA lineman is better.

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I don’t know. It’s been worse. There were the days when Sims-Walker was the top guy, and Reggie Williams and Matt Jones were taking up space on the field but not doing a whole lot.

And every one of those guys is better than whoever we're calling number 2 behind Marvin Jones.

"number 2" describes our WR depth perfectly.

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How many UDFA linemen end up successes? How many UDFA receivers?

I was expecting the easy answer to be UDFA receivers, but surprisingly I think the answer is UDFA lineman. Brian Waters, Nate Newton, Larry Little, and Jason Peters are all HoF caliber UDFA lineman. There are some good UDFA WRs for sure...Welker and Rod Smith most notably, but I think UDFA lineman is better.

I think it's a lot easier to find a Keelan Cole or Allen Lazard than it is to find the next Nate Newton (that was what, 30-plus years ago?)

The original statement was to target WR early and focus on OL in mid-rounds, and my thinking deeper into the darft and looking at UDFA was a point of noting that typically OL disappear faster than the WR do. The drop-off in talent is going to be much steeper among the OL than it will be for the WR. If there's a Jamarr Chase on the board, I might forego the lineman at that stage, but generally it will be easier to find a similar WR later on than it will for OL.

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I think it's a lot easier to find a Keelan Cole or Allen Lazard than it is to find the next Nate Newton (that was what, 30-plus years ago?)

The original statement was to target WR early and focus on OL in mid-rounds, and my thinking deeper into the darft and looking at UDFA was a point of noting that typically OL disappear faster than the WR do. The drop-off in talent is going to be much steeper among the OL than it will be for the WR. If there's a Jamarr Chase on the board, I might forego the lineman at that stage, but generally it will be easier to find a similar WR later on than it will for OL.

I contest this too after looking at more into it. I think it's just easier to remember WR UDFA because their names come up more/fantasy football. Norwell was a UDFA and became the highest paid G in the league. David Andrews is one of the best C in the league. Villanueva has been a very quality OT. I could go on. There are plenty of good UDFA at every position (Thielen is probably the best active UDFA WR to add).

Ask Vic's big earth theory was just as outdated as his WRs are a dime a dozen statements and very misguided our fanbase.

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I could be wrong about this as I just saw a conversation on Twitter regarding jihard wards Instagram story.

Apparently he an myles Jack speak about Dylan Moses quitting on the team and not turning up for games.

I don’t have Instagram so I can’t check this but was very surprised reading about it

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