Those of us who bleed teal and black want far more for our beloved Jaguars than escaping the depths we've experienced the past decade. 

Instead of winning few enough games to count on one hand, we want strings of double digit winning seasons and deserve enough Super Bowl rings to count on two hands.  The Duval faithful believe we got a huge piece of the puzzle in the last draft with the selection of Trevor Lawrence.  After a disastrous year under Urban Meyer, many of us believe we got another huge piece of the puzzle when we hired Super Bowl winning coach Doug Pederson.  Pederson comes from the Andy Reid and Mike Holmgren WCO coaching trees.  He's a former QB who knows offense, and has a history of successfully getting the most out of QBs, as evidenced by his work with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles.  Understandably, Jaguars fans are excited for the possibilities this combination can bring us.

So if we finally have a franchise QB and a Super Bowl winning coach that can develop him properly, what's so sobering?  Why does it sound like I am throwing a wet blanket on our future?

Under "normal" circumstances, this combination  would be a huge advantage for us.  There might be 3 great QBs and a bunch of mediocre guys.

However, the AFC is absolutely loaded with young, franchise level signal callers.  More loaded with young high caliber signal callers than I have ever seen in all my years of watching football.  For some perspective, the 1983 draft class was viewed as the strongest and deepest draft ever, as well as the best QB draft ever.  All of the 6 QBs that went in the first round of that draft went to AFC teams.  Three of them wound up in the Hall of Fame (Elway, Kelly, Marino), another went to a couple of Pro Bowls (Ken O'Brien) and still another went to a Super Bowl (Tony Eason)  When you add in two other stud QBs over the next two years in Boomer Esiason and Bernie Kosar, at least half of the teams in the conference had a young QB capable of performing at a Pro bowl level.  Right now, these are the QBs in the AFC:

Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert
Derek Carr
Joe Burrow
Lamar Jackson
Baker Mayfield
Josh Allen
Mac Jones

Mayfield has yet to reach a Pro Bowl, but he DID get the browns to the playoffs last year and performed well in the process.

This doesn't factor in Zach Wilson, who was taken right behind Lawrence in last year's draft.  It also does not include guys like DeShaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers, who, after trades, could still end up in the AFC.  Nor does the above include Carson Wentz or Ryan Tannehill, who both have had their moments of performing at a Pro Bowl level in their careers. 

As great as Josh Allen has been the past two years, you could make the argument he is maybe 3rd or 4th best in the AFC behind Mahomes, Herbert and now Burrow, again, not counting guys like Rodgers and Watson.  Even if Trevor Lawrence is developed and becomes every bit the player we think he can become, he still may only be somewhere in the middle of that pack, depending on when you are doing the comparison.

The point is even though we may have a franchise QB and a coach that can maximize his potential/production, it wouldn't be the advantage it would be under normal circumstances because many of the other teams have potentially great QBs too.  So to ensure we develop Lawrence into the player we think he can be, and to offset the presence of the other young QBs in the conference, the pressure to add an abundance of good players around him is even greater, if the team is going to overcome the other franchise signal callers and win the Super Bowl.  We'll have to be better than the other teams at the other positions, because even though Trevor Lawrence could be great, the other signal callers can be great enough to offset whatever advantage Lawrence would otherwise provide.  We absolutely have to be better at the other positions to win a championship.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

None of that matters

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The AFC is definitely going to be a tough slog for whoever ends up winning the Conference for the next decade at least. We're going to need the best team, not just the best quarterback if we're going to win it all.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

Hasn't this always been the case though? Elite QBs certainly help but have never been the whole enchilada.

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Looking to troll? Don't bother, we supply our own.

 

 

Hasn't this always been the case though? Elite QBs certainly help but have never been the whole enchilada.

Yes there has always been the need to build complete teams.

However, the presence of the QBs makes rhw bar higher to clear.  

Think back to this division when Peyton Manning was with the Colts.  The Colts might have the occasional hiccup, but generally speaking, they owned the division because they had a marked advantage at QB. 

Now imagine if other teams within the division had QBs closer in ability to Manning.

Would the Colts have won as many division titles as they did?

No.

The difference at QB between the Colts and Jaguars during the JDR era was the main difference between the division titles and the wold card finishes the Jaguars were saddled with.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

You are correct in what you are proposing that the current group of QB's will definitely make things more difficult. I see it as a little parity coming back into the league I suppose. Hopefully salary cap issues and player disgruntlement on other teams maybe forces some of those other team to lose players to the NFC.

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Looking to troll? Don't bother, we supply our own.

 

 

The Jaguars currently have a big advantage on our side, which is that once Watson is traded away from the Texans, or goes to jail, there won't be another true franchise guy in the division aside from Lawrence.

It's essentially the advantage that manning had in our division, he was the only real QB.

The Jaguars need to get a team that can dominate the division and get to 13+ wins a year. Once they can do that they'll be playing a bunch of home playoffs games and we'll be able to complete with those other QBs.

In any case the first order of business is to stop the need drafting and reaching and start drafting elite talents, not roster plugs.

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Totally agree.

Not sure I’ve ever seen this many young ascending QBs in one conference ever. The NFC has a lot of older QBs with few young ones.

The Super Bowl is the goal (obviously) but just consistently making it to the dance will be a great step for this franchise.

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"tough row to hoe"

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The Jaguars currently have a big advantage on our side, which is that once Watson is traded away from the Texans, or goes to jail, there won't be another true franchise guy in the division aside from Lawrence.

It's essentially the advantage that manning had in our division, he was the only real QB.

The Jaguars need to get a team that can dominate the division and get to 13+ wins a year. Once they can do that they'll be playing a bunch of home playoffs games and we'll be able to complete with those other QBs.

In any case the first order of business is to stop the need drafting and reaching and start drafting elite talents, not roster plugs.

Great point.   Assuming we can keep the other division teams from ever getting a franchise signal caller and we can successfully develop ours, we should have that advantage in our division for a long time.  Conversely, it seems the other divisions will have real fights for divisional supremacy because of the multiple quality QBs.

As to your last point, the sooner we get Spielman in, the better.  While I think Baalke for all his faults, can find OL and DL, I don't trust him at all to find quality receivers/skill players, nor do I trust him to be able or willing to sign quality free agents.  Spielman, OTOH has proven to be quite capable of finding WRs, RBs, CBs, LBs and edge rushers.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Totally agree.

Not sure I’ve ever seen this many young ascending QBs in one conference ever. The NFC has a lot of older QBs with few young ones.

The Super Bowl is the goal (obviously) but just consistently making it to the dance will be a great step for this franchise.

Absolutely.

I think Fields could be a very good QB, though Chicago has traditionally been a bad place for QBs to go, and I don't understand why they didn't get an offensive guy to help develop Fields.  It's too soon to tell for Lance, though he seems to have th physical ability.  I think he has much more around him in terms of quality coaching and quality talent to devlop into a great passer.  But you are right, there is no comparison between the conferences in terms of quality young QBs.  It'll be even worse if Rodgers is traded out of conference and Matt Ryan retires.

Seldom Rite may well have identified the dynamic key to us reaching the Super Bowl.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I'd just be happy if we are competitive from week to week.  It seems like forever since that happened.  As crappy as we've been recently, it seems like 2017 was a distant memory.  It's hard to believe it was less than five years ago.

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"tough row to hoe"

Yep.

There is one advantage to this, though.

The AFC playoff games for the foreseeable future should be entertaining like they were this year.

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I'd just be happy if we are competitive from week to week.  It seems like forever since that happened.  As crappy as we've been recently, it seems like 2017 was a distant memory.  It's hard to believe it was less than five years ago.

I would be temporarily happy.  Baby steps sort of thing.

But with Lawrence and Pederson, I have to think the longer term goals have to be winning seasons, division championships, playoffs and Super Bowls, not just mere competitiveness.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

"tough row to hoe"

Yep.

There is one advantage to this, though.

The AFC playoff games for the foreseeable future should be entertaining like they were this year.

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I'd just be happy if we are competitive from week to week.  It seems like forever since that happened.  As crappy as we've been recently, it seems like 2017 was a distant memory.  It's hard to believe it was less than five years ago.

I would be temporarily happy.  Baby steps sort of thing.

But with Lawrence and Pederson, I have to think the longer term goals have to be winning seasons, division championships, playoffs and Super Bowls, not just mere competitiveness.

Right. Next season I'd be satisfied with competitive and very happy with a winning season. The season after that I'm expecting a winning season. By year three the Jaguars should be dominating the division assuming Trevor hasn't had a career altering injury. If that's not happening then either the team continued to draft very poorly, or Trevor failed to develop.

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Yep.

There is one advantage to this, though.

The AFC playoff games for the foreseeable future should be entertaining like they were this year.

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I would be temporarily happy.  Baby steps sort of thing.

But with Lawrence and Pederson, I have to think the longer term goals have to be winning seasons, division championships, playoffs and Super Bowls, not just mere competitiveness.

Right. Next season I'd be satisfied with competitive and very happy with a winning season. The season after that I'm expecting a winning season. By year three the Jaguars should be dominating the division assuming Trevor hasn't had a career altering injury. If that's not happening then either the team continued to draft very poorly, or Trevor failed to develop.

To me, only injury or the failure of the team to put enough pieces around him stops Trevor Lawrence from developing into at least a good QB.

That last Colts game shows his capabilities, and that was with the dumpster fire of our season with our dumpster fire of a coaching staff and our injury riddled receivers.

He has the physical tools.  He has the intangibles.  He now has the coaching.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Those of us who bleed teal and black want far more for our beloved Jaguars than escaping the depths we've experienced the past decade. 

Instead of winning few enough games to count on one hand, we want strings of double digit winning seasons and deserve enough Super Bowl rings to count on two hands.  The Duval faithful believe we got a huge piece of the puzzle in the last draft with the selection of Trevor Lawrence.  After a disastrous year under Urban Meyer, many of us believe we got another huge piece of the puzzle when we hired Super Bowl winning coach Doug Pederson.  Pederson comes from the Andy Reid and Mike Holmgren WCO coaching trees.  He's a former QB who knows offense, and has a history of successfully getting the most out of QBs, as evidenced by his work with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles.  Understandably, Jaguars fans are excited for the possibilities this combination can bring us.

So if we finally have a franchise QB and a Super Bowl winning coach that can develop him properly, what's so sobering?  Why does it sound like I am throwing a wet blanket on our future?

Under "normal" circumstances, this combination  would be a huge advantage for us.  There might be 3 great QBs and a bunch of mediocre guys.

However, the AFC is absolutely loaded with young, franchise level signal callers.  More loaded with young high caliber signal callers than I have ever seen in all my years of watching football.  For some perspective, the 1983 draft class was viewed as the strongest and deepest draft ever, as well as the best QB draft ever.  All of the 6 QBs that went in the first round of that draft went to AFC teams.  Three of them wound up in the Hall of Fame (Elway, Kelly, Marino), another went to a couple of Pro Bowls (Ken O'Brien) and still another went to a Super Bowl (Tony Eason)  When you add in two other stud QBs over the next two years in Boomer Esiason and Bernie Kosar, at least half of the teams in the conference had a young QB capable of performing at a Pro bowl level.  Right now, these are the QBs in the AFC:

Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert
Derek Carr
Joe Burrow
Lamar Jackson
Baker Mayfield
Josh Allen
Mac Jones

Mayfield has yet to reach a Pro Bowl, but he DID get the browns to the playoffs last year and performed well in the process.

This doesn't factor in Zach Wilson, who was taken right behind Lawrence in last year's draft.  It also does not include guys like DeShaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers, who, after trades, could still end up in the AFC.  Nor does the above include Carson Wentz or Ryan Tannehill, who both have had their moments of performing at a Pro Bowl level in their careers. 

As great as Josh Allen has been the past two years, you could make the argument he is maybe 3rd or 4th best in the AFC behind Mahomes, Herbert and now Burrow, again, not counting guys like Rodgers and Watson.  Even if Trevor Lawrence is developed and becomes every bit the player we think he can become, he still may only be somewhere in the middle of that pack, depending on when you are doing the comparison.

The point is even though we may have a franchise QB and a coach that can maximize his potential/production, it wouldn't be the advantage it would be under normal circumstances because many of the other teams have potentially great QBs too.  So to ensure we develop Lawrence into the player we think he can be, and to offset the presence of the other young QBs in the conference, the pressure to add an abundance of good players around him is even greater, if the team is going to overcome the other franchise signal callers and win the Super Bowl.  We'll have to be better than the other teams at the other positions, because even though Trevor Lawrence could be great, the other signal callers can be great enough to offset whatever advantage Lawrence would otherwise provide.  We absolutely have to be better at the other positions to win a championship. 

Championship?  Championship?  We talkin'... championship???  I just want to win some games.  Six.  Maybe seven.

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Right. Next season I'd be satisfied with competitive and very happy with a winning season. The season after that I'm expecting a winning season. By year three the Jaguars should be dominating the division assuming Trevor hasn't had a career altering injury. If that's not happening then either the team continued to draft very poorly, or Trevor failed to develop.

To me, only injury or the failure of the team to put enough pieces around him stops Trevor Lawrence from developing into at last a good QB.

That last Colts game shows his capabilities, and that was with the dumpster fire of our season with our dumpster fire of a coaching staff and our injury riddled receivers.

He has the physical tools.  He has the intangibles.  He now has the coaching.

I agree. The only way I see him not being a great QB is because of intensive failure around him. His floor is higher than most guys ceiling. I'm just noting what it would take for the team not to succeed now that we have a demonstrably competent head coach and assuming Spielman comes in to supervise Baalke.

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https://twitter.com/MJD/status/149029434...oDTh-ynyoA

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https://twitter.com/MJD/status/149034036...FEOAsqzxmg

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I wish we would hire MJD for RB coach

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The most dire need for the team is someone that can evaluate talent.

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Respect the game.  Play with a sense of urgency. 


1.)  Take care of the ball.  Win the turnover battle.

2.)  It's all about 3rd down.  Win on 3rd down to win the game.

3.) Playmakers make plays.  The only reason that you put your uniform on is to make plays. In order to EARN your paycheck, you must make plays.  

Learn from the great collapse of 2023.  

Brady
Manning
Rothlisberger
McNair
Rivers
Palmer
Plummer

This thing is never easy. It’s always been that way. Always will be. Talent is constantly recycling.

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