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Dotson or Pickens at 33?

#1

i'm starting to feel this might be the decision the jags are gonna face at 33. who you going with and why? for me it's dotson, he just seems like a very smooth and polished wr, high floor and high ceiling for me. his draft stock seems to be dropping somewhat recently. pickens undoubtedly has an appealing tool set, and his ceiling is probably as high as an anyone in the draft, but also some red flags there that scare me off...
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#2

Watson
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#3

Why Watson? I agree he has a similarly high ceiling but somewhat untested.
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#4

Out of those two it kind of has to be Pickens by default. We're desperate for an X receiver, and Dotson is at best a Z but probably a Y and we just made a Y a top 10 paid receiver.

Pickens has an injury history, up and down production, and he is a headcase...but he has X traits. Watson has X traits in spades too, but he is very raw and I just saw that deep ball clip that he just completely whiffed on yet again and I believe 33 is just too early for him also.

WR is a no mans land from me after the top 4 who should all be gone by the early 20s and the next tier of WRs who I think shouldn't go before the 40s or so. I think the right answer is take something that isn't a WR at 33 (Cine, Mafe, LB, etc) and do whatever it takes to get Pierce at 65 or with a bit of a trade up.
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#5
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2022, 10:36 PM by TheO-LineMatters. Edited 1 time in total.)

I believe Dotson will be long gone by pick #33 and there is no way in hell I'm drafting an inconsistent receiver like Pickens. I'm not gonna reach for a WR just because we need one. I'm either gonna use our #33 and #65 pick to trade up to around #20 to get one of the top WR's or I'm standing at #33 and drafting the BAP regardless of position. I'm not gonna force something that isn't there.
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#6

(03-19-2022, 10:34 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I believe Dotson will be long gone by pick #33 and there is no way in hell I'm drafting an inconsistent receiver like Pickens. I'm not gonna reach for a WR just because we need one. I'm either gonna use our #33 and #65 pick to trade up to around #20 to get one of the top WR's or I'm standing at #33 and drafting the BAP regardless of position. I'm not gonna force something that isn't there.

But if Dotson was there?
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#7

(03-19-2022, 11:43 PM)JagJohn Wrote: But if Dotson was there?

How would you propose we use Dotson if we drafted him that won't severely overlap with Kirk and Engram (and Arnold)?
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#8

I see what you're saying, but also I think you kinda fall into the trap of getting obsessed with roles and system sometimes. Plenty of transcendental WRs in the NFL over the last ten years or so that don't fall into the "possesses X traits" box but greatly add to their teams chances of winning. Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Antonio Brown... none of them fit that mould coming out of college. I'll admit I'm a bit draft smitten with Dotson, think he could be special. And I'll concede that Pickens definitely fits the mould of what we immediately need more. But, if we're talking scheme and system, Doug also stated he wants WRs that can rotate between roles. And frankly that fits into the direction the NFL is heading in general. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be mad at Pickens at 33, like I say I think he has a very high ceiling. But at this point I'd be willing to bet that 5 years from now Dotson is the more accomplished player.
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#9

(03-19-2022, 11:43 PM)JagJohn Wrote:
(03-19-2022, 10:34 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I believe Dotson will be long gone by pick #33 and there is no way in hell I'm drafting an inconsistent receiver like Pickens. I'm not gonna reach for a WR just because we need one. I'm either gonna use our #33 and #65 pick to trade up to around #20 to get one of the top WR's or I'm standing at #33 and drafting the BAP regardless of position. I'm not gonna force something that isn't there.

But if Dotson was there?

I take Dotson without a second thought. I just highly doubt he will be available now that Green Bay has traded away Davante Adams. I think he goes to the Packers at #22.
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#10

(03-19-2022, 11:48 PM)Upper Wrote:
(03-19-2022, 11:43 PM)JagJohn Wrote: But if Dotson was there?

How would you propose we use Dotson if we drafted him that won't severely overlap with Kirk and Engram (and Arnold)?

I don't see an overlap at all. I think Dotson can be a Marvin Harrison type outside WR. Maybe not to the level of Harrison, but I believe he can be extremely effective on the next level. Not every outside receiver has to be over 6' tall. Harrison was under 6' tall and was a fantastic outside receiver. Kirk would play the slot and Engram would be used as a receiving TE/H-Back type like Pete Mitchell was in our glory days.
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#11

(03-19-2022, 10:03 PM)Upper Wrote: Out of those two it kind of has to be Pickens by default. We're desperate for an X receiver, and Dotson is at best a Z but probably a Y and we just made a Y a top 10 paid receiver.

Pickens has an injury history, up and down production, and he is a headcase...but he has X traits. Watson has X traits in spades too, but he is very raw and I just saw that deep ball clip that he just completely whiffed on yet again and I believe 33 is just too early for him also.

WR is a no mans land from me after the top 4 who should all be gone by the early 20s and the next tier of WRs who I think shouldn't go before the 40s or so. I think the right answer is take something that isn't a WR at 33 (Cine, Mafe, LB, etc) and do whatever it takes to get Pierce at 65 or with a bit of a trade up.

I really like what I’ve seen of Pierce. Dotson is a good receiver, but he isn’t really an X. Problem is that I  think Pierce will be gone before 65. So if you feel like he fits us better than Dotson, do you dare ask overdraft him at 33?  

I like Mafe. But the only way I take him at 33 is if I go tackle at 1. If I go defense at 1, I’m not taking defense at 33. I’m coming out of my first 5 picks with OLine and pass catchers.
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Fix the O-Line!
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#12

(03-20-2022, 06:23 AM)I am Yoda Wrote:
(03-19-2022, 10:03 PM)Upper Wrote: Out of those two it kind of has to be Pickens by default. We're desperate for an X receiver, and Dotson is at best a Z but probably a Y and we just made a Y a top 10 paid receiver.

Pickens has an injury history, up and down production, and he is a headcase...but he has X traits. Watson has X traits in spades too, but he is very raw and I just saw that deep ball clip that he just completely whiffed on yet again and I believe 33 is just too early for him also.

WR is a no mans land from me after the top 4 who should all be gone by the early 20s and the next tier of WRs who I think shouldn't go before the 40s or so. I think the right answer is take something that isn't a WR at 33 (Cine, Mafe, LB, etc) and do whatever it takes to get Pierce at 65 or with a bit of a trade up.

I really like what I’ve seen of Pierce. Dotson is a good receiver, but he isn’t really an X. Problem is that I  think Pierce will be gone before 65. So if you feel like he fits us better than Dotson, do you dare ask overdraft him at 33?  

I like Mafe. But the only way I take him at 33 is if I go tackle at 1. If I go defense at 1, I’m not taking defense at 33. I’m coming out of my first 5 picks with OLine and pass catchers.

If all the receivers I want are off the board by #33 and the front office refuses to trade up, I would seriously consider OG Jamaree Salyer with that #33. The more I see his tapes and remember how he played during the season, the more I'm convinced he can be an All-Pro LG someday. We still have a hole at OG opposite Scherff and I believe Salyer would be a perfect fit. I have him as a first round value, so I would have no hesitation in drafting him that early. If we could land him at #33 and C/OT Zach Tom at #106, I believe our interior O-Line would be set for the foreseeable future.
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#13

(03-20-2022, 07:07 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: If all the receivers I want are off the board by #33 and the front office refuses to trade up, I would seriously consider OG Jamaree Salyer with that #33. The more I see his tapes and remember how he played during the season, the more I'm convinced he can be an All-Pro LG someday. We still have a hole at OG opposite Scherff and I believe Salyer would be a perfect fit. I have him as a first round value, so I would have no hesitation in drafting him that early. If we could land him at #33 and C/OT Zach Tom at #106, I believe our interior O-Line would be set for the foreseeable future.

I don't hate that at all.  I'm going to have to follow my own advice and be content with what we get in our first 5 picks.  I think it's imperative to draft an X and another TE.  Engram is on a 1 year prove it deal.  If his play jumps up like we hope it will, he will probably sign with a contender next year.  If we don't get one of the better TE prospects with one of those, I think we've got to package some picks to move back up into round 4 to get one.  In fact, even if we get one I'd like to be in position to take Chig Okonkwo.  He's not the long, tall receiving target like the others.  at 6'2"  he's more an H back type.  But man, he's got versatility and good hands.
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#14
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2022, 09:56 AM by flgatorsandjags. Edited 2 times in total.)

(03-20-2022, 07:29 AM)I am Yoda Wrote:
(03-20-2022, 07:07 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: If all the receivers I want are off the board by #33 and the front office refuses to trade up, I would seriously consider OG Jamaree Salyer with that #33. The more I see his tapes and remember how he played during the season, the more I'm convinced he can be an All-Pro LG someday. We still have a hole at OG opposite Scherff and I believe Salyer would be a perfect fit. I have him as a first round value, so I would have no hesitation in drafting him that early. If we could land him at #33 and C/OT Zach Tom at #106, I believe our interior O-Line would be set for the foreseeable future.

I don't hate that at all.  I'm going to have to follow my own advice and be content with what we get in our first 5 picks.  I think it's imperative to draft an X and another TE.  Engram is on a 1 year prove it deal.  If his play jumps up like we hope it will, he will probably sign with a contender next year.  If we don't get one of the better TE prospects with one of those, I think we've got to package some picks to move back up into round 4 to get one.  In fact, even if we get one I'd like to be in position to take Chig Okonkwo.  He's not the long, tall receiving target like the others.  at 6'2"  he's more an H back type.  But man, he's got versatility and good hands.
If Engrams play jumps up we can give him the franchise tag next year. We have nobody worthy of the tag next year
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#15

(03-20-2022, 06:23 AM)I am Yoda Wrote:
(03-19-2022, 10:03 PM)Upper Wrote: Out of those two it kind of has to be Pickens by default. We're desperate for an X receiver, and Dotson is at best a Z but probably a Y and we just made a Y a top 10 paid receiver.

Pickens has an injury history, up and down production, and he is a headcase...but he has X traits. Watson has X traits in spades too, but he is very raw and I just saw that deep ball clip that he just completely whiffed on yet again and I believe 33 is just too early for him also.

WR is a no mans land from me after the top 4 who should all be gone by the early 20s and the next tier of WRs who I think shouldn't go before the 40s or so. I think the right answer is take something that isn't a WR at 33 (Cine, Mafe, LB, etc) and do whatever it takes to get Pierce at 65 or with a bit of a trade up.

I really like what I’ve seen of Pierce. Dotson is a good receiver, but he isn’t really an X. Problem is that I  think Pierce will be gone before 65. So if you feel like he fits us better than Dotson, do you dare ask overdraft him at 33?  

I like Mafe. But the only way I take him at 33 is if I go tackle at 1. If I go defense at 1, I’m not taking defense at 33. I’m coming out of my first 5 picks with OLine and pass catchers.

Pierce could definitely go before 65, but I wouldn't be surprised if he made it there either. I don't think it would take that much to trade up from 65 to like 55, that's what I would try to do.

If the NFL has taught us anything recently, waves of pass rushers is what wins games. Allen, Aidan, and Mafe could be holy crap levels of good. He's probably like my 18th or 19th favorite player in this draft so if he is there at 33 he's very likely to be BAP by a full tier.
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#16

(03-20-2022, 06:23 AM)I am Yoda Wrote:
(03-19-2022, 10:03 PM)Upper Wrote: Out of those two it kind of has to be Pickens by default. We're desperate for an X receiver, and Dotson is at best a Z but probably a Y and we just made a Y a top 10 paid receiver.

Pickens has an injury history, up and down production, and he is a headcase...but he has X traits. Watson has X traits in spades too, but he is very raw and I just saw that deep ball clip that he just completely whiffed on yet again and I believe 33 is just too early for him also.

WR is a no mans land from me after the top 4 who should all be gone by the early 20s and the next tier of WRs who I think shouldn't go before the 40s or so. I think the right answer is take something that isn't a WR at 33 (Cine, Mafe, LB, etc) and do whatever it takes to get Pierce at 65 or with a bit of a trade up.

I really like what I’ve seen of Pierce. Dotson is a good receiver, but he isn’t really an X. Problem is that I  think Pierce will be gone before 65. So if you feel like he fits us better than Dotson, do you dare ask overdraft him at 33?  

I like Mafe. But the only way I take him at 33 is if I go tackle at 1. If I go defense at 1, I’m not taking defense at 33. I’m coming out of my first 5 picks with OLine and pass catchers.

I think Mafe sneaks in to the bottom half of round 1. I could see a team like the Chiefs selecting him. Kansas City ranked 29th in sacks last season with 31 and 9 of those came from DT Chris Jones. They could really use a good, young edge rusher.
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#17

(03-20-2022, 10:55 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I think Mafe sneaks in to the bottom half of round 1. I could see a team like the Chiefs selecting him. Kansas City ranked 29th in sacks last season with 31 and 9 of those came from DT Chris Jones. They could really use a good, young edge rusher.

You said yesterday that Karlaftis was going to be the guy that benefitted most from Ojabo's injury, but I think it'll be Mafe. I agree it's probably going to wind up being less than 50/50 that he makes it to 33 come draft time. I think the Packers are gonna get Olave at 22 and Mafe at 28 and that's a bonkers haul.
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#18

(03-20-2022, 11:03 AM)Upper Wrote:
(03-20-2022, 10:55 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I think Mafe sneaks in to the bottom half of round 1. I could see a team like the Chiefs selecting him. Kansas City ranked 29th in sacks last season with 31 and 9 of those came from DT Chris Jones. They could really use a good, young edge rusher.

You said yesterday that Karlaftis was going to be the guy that benefitted most from Ojabo's injury, but I think it'll be Mafe. I agree it's probably going to wind up being less than 50/50 that he makes it to 33 come draft time. I think the Packers are gonna get Olave at 22 and Mafe at 28 and that's a bonkers haul.

Personally, I can't see the Pats passing on Olave.
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#19

The jags need other positions. I would not worry about tight end until next season
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#20

I would definitely go with Dotson. As a Penn State alumnus and fan, I have seen all of his games. Although he is under 6'0 tall, he is very capable of playing on the outside. He is much less risky a pick than Pickens, although Pickens' ceiling is higher. I've seen Dotson compared most often to Dionte Johnson of the Steelers, who caught 107 passes and 8 touchdowns last season. Dotson is likely to be gone by pick 33, but a duo of Hutchinson and Dotson in the 1st 2 rounds would be as good as it gets.
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