The one thing that kept our fan base going throughout the miserable 2020 season is the idea that we could finally land our franchise QB when all was said and done.  Sure enough, when the Jets pulled off the late season upsets of the Rams and Browns, Jaguars fans suddenly were buoyed with hope.  The guy most pundits were saying was the best QB prospect to come out since Andrew Luck, and drew comparisons to John Elway was ours. 

However, he didn't show the progress we hoped to see in his rookie year due to a myriad of factors, most notably the disastrous coaching of Urban Meyer and the free agency neglect of Trent Baalke.

There have been some promising changes in thus far in 2022.  The era of Urban Blight is over, and replaced by offensive minded Doug Pederson-a proven NFL veteran coach who won the Super Bowl with the Eagles.  While Jaguars fans were disappointed that Baalke was not fired, and further disappointed by the lack of an EVP installed over him, Jaguars fans wound up pleasantly surprised to see the free agency expenditures during this free agency period, which featured Pro Bowl G Brandon Scherff, an actual receiving threat at TE in Evan Engram, and a slot receiver who can separate in Christian Kirk.

However, things have changed elsewhere in the AFC as well.  Recent highly drafted QBs like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert have surpassed most of the expectations their fans had for them.  Denver traded for Russell Wilson, who has made two Super Bowls and is one of the best QBs in the game.  Deshaun Watson was considered among the best QBs in the game until last year, when his refusal to play for the Texans combined with off field allegations to lead to him not playing at all.  Once it was determined the Grand jury in Houston would not indict him on those allegations, it opened the door to trade him.  While it was thought in some circles the Texans would not trade him to a team in the AFC, it turns out Cleveland won the Watson sweepstakes after winnign Amari Cooper in a separate trade.  What's more, the Raiders wound up trading for WR Devante Adams, who has been the best WR in the game over the past few years.

As a result, the AFC QBs are very strong with some of their receiving targets.

Patrick Mahomes will throw to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce
Russell Wilson will throw to Jerry Jeudy and Cortland Sutton
Justin Herbert has Keenan Allen and Mike Williams
Derek Carr has Devante Adams and Mike Waller
Lamar Jackson-Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown
Deshaun Watson has Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples Jones
Joe Burrow-has Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd
Josh Allen has Stefan Diggs and Gabriel Davis
Mac Jones-Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith
Tua Tagoavila-Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki
Mitch Trubisky-Dionte Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth
Ryan Tannehill has AJ Brown and Robert Woods
Zach Wilson has CJ Uzomah, Corey Davis and Moore
Davis Mills
with former top overall pick Baker Mayfield supposedly pushing for a trade to the Colts, who will have Michael Pittman and Mo Alie Cox

Given all of the changes outlined above, what are the reasonable expectations for Trevor Lawrence in year two?  More specifically. where do you think Lawrence will rank among these QBs by the end of the 2022 season?  What is the basis for your belief?

I maintain that even if the Jaguars nail this draft, and Pederson gives Lawrence the coaching he should have gotten his rookie year, Lawrence could make significant progress and still be middle of the pack of AFC QBs at best.  I think under those circumstances, some people would still argue that he is a bust, and I think that would be unreasonable.

Without knowing who the Jaguars will draft and what impact they will have, it's impossible to know how it'll play out, but as it stands now, as promising as this free agency period has been, can any of us say our receiving corps is at least in the middle of the AFC pack?

As always your thoughts are welcome.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Regardless of whom we add in the draft, or who we've already added in free agency. If Trevor Lawrence has another 12 td 17 int type season, he isn't the guy. A scary thought, I know because regardless if that happens or not he will probably get at least a 3rd season to "prove it" just because of his draft position. I know a lot of people on this board think I hate Trevor or want him to fail and that's the furthest thing from the truth but I'm just being real.

My personal expectation, however is that we will see growth but I do not feel like he's going to blow anyone away because that's just not how I see him at this point in time. I think with what i'd assume to be a much more durable Offensive line and hopefully a more productive receiving core that Trevor will at the very least, improve his productivity.

Realistic expectations for me are something like 7 wins, 20 TDs 12 ints. Personally, would be very unhappy with these kinds of numbers but at the very least it would show some sort of improvement. In a 17 game season, with a much better coaching staff/line/weapons I think my entire opinion would change on Trevor if he could get us 8-10 wins, throw around 30 TDs and keep the ints below 10. I know that this sounds a bit greedy, but taking into consideration the extra game a competent "elite" QB shouldn't be throwing less than 30 TDs in this modern era of football. And god forbid, no more 7 game stretches without scoring a TD.


I'm feeling very cautiously optimistic right now, I don't have an overwelming feeling of excitement for the season that I was hoping I would around this time last year because of how inept the QB and the rest of the team played. I just hope Trevor is dialed in and ready to get better and not just coasting through the offseason because he thinks he's "made of the right stuff".


Time will tell..

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Just like last season, I don't have any specific numbers in mind. I just wanna see steady improvement. How much that improvement is will depend on who we draft, because I don't see how we upgraded the WR corps with who we got in free agency.

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I think we will defiently see a improvement to last season

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Just like last season, I don't have any specific numbers in mind. I just wanna see steady improvement. How much that improvement is will depend on who we draft, because I don't see how we upgraded the WR corps with who we got in free agency.

Wow.  We really see things differently.  While I am frustrated that we did not do what it took to land Cooper and now Woods, both WRs we signed elevated the floor of our WR corps at a minimum.  Without question Kirk is the best WR on the team right now.  That he is the best and is an X/Y hybrid does not bother me.  AND  I think it's imperative to get an X in the draft.  But X does not have to be our best receiver on Day 1.  

What if we move beyond binary thinking?  The Jags reasonably need 2 offseasons to compete for the division.  In the loaded AFC we have for the foreseeable future, I believe we're going to have to win the division to make the playoffs.  This free agency has brought real improvement on both sides of the ball.  If we don't get everything we need in the draft, we will still be playing better football in 2022 than in 2021.  I can get behind that.

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Remember the wrs could not get open often, and they dropped the ball a lot killing drives. If this is improved, you will see a lot better numbers from tlaw and the offense score points as the passing game will open up the running game as well.

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I feel that some of us are expecting Too Much in a Small Time Frame. Very few QBs makes leaps and bound (improvement) steps being drafted by an twice rebuilding team within his first two years. I definately expect him to improve, w/o attaching #s to his progress, doing so sets oneself up for potential disappointment(s).

Time Will Tell.

NH3...

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"AZANE"

If the receivers stop dropping the ball and get open more often, and
If our defense keeps us in games so the other team can't just rush the passer at will because we have to abandon the run, and
If our defense can get more turnovers,

then Trevor should have 20 TDs and 10 INTs without any improvement at all. Same guy as last year, with a better team around him, I'm saying, 20TDs and 10 INTs.

But, if we get all of that, plus Trevor takes the next step as a lot of players do in year 2 of their career, then I could see 27 TDs and 10 INTs.

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If the receivers stop dropping the ball and get open more often, and
If our defense keeps us in games so the other team can't just rush the passer at will because we have to abandon the run, and
If our defense can get more turnovers,

then Trevor should have 20 TDs and 10 INTs without any improvement at all.  Same guy as last year, with a better team around him, I'm saying, 20TDs and 10 INTs. 

But, if we get all of that, plus Trevor takes the next step as a lot of players do in year 2 of their career, then I could see 27 TDs and 10 INTs.

It takes a village.

NH3...

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"AZANE"

36tds 12 ints 5028 yds (I have no idea just throwing out the first numbers that came into my head :-D )

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Until we actually know who our offensive tackles are, and until we find an X wide receiver, it's hard to venture a guess about Trevor's productivity.

We do seemingly have a staff in place that will build an offense designed to help Trevor thrive, instead of throwing him to the wolves as others did last year.

so, I do expect improvement from that aspect alone. If Other pieces fall into place, the improvement could be much greater

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Just like last season, I don't have any specific numbers in mind. I just wanna see steady improvement. How much that improvement is will depend on who we draft, because I don't see how we upgraded the WR corps with who we got in free agency.

Wow.  We really see things differently.  While I am frustrated that we did not do what it took to land Cooper and now Woods, both WRs we signed elevated the floor of our WR corps at a minimum.  Without question Kirk is the best WR on the team right now.  That he is the best and is an X/Y hybrid does not bother me.  AND  I think it's imperative to get an X in the draft.  But X does not have to be our best receiver on Day 1.  

What if we move beyond binary thinking?  The Jags reasonably need 2 offseasons to compete for the division.  In the loaded AFC we have for the foreseeable future, I believe we're going to have to win the division to make the playoffs.  This free agency has brought real improvement on both sides of the ball.  If we don't get everything we need in the draft, we will still be playing better football in 2022 than in 2021.  I can get behind that.

I just don't see it. When Chark was healthy, he was a much better receiver than Kirk and definitely better than Jones. Unfortunately, injuries got the better of him over the past few seasons. As far as Kirk now being the best receiver on the team, I would certainly hope so. Our receivers were pure garbage last year. Being the best of a terrible group is not saying much. I still believe that Kirk is an average slot receiver and that is his ceiling. 

I think this team won't be competing for the division until at least 2025. I agree that we have improved significantly at ILB, OG and Nickel. Those additions should help us quite a bit. I'm willing to say that our defense will be markedly improved next season, but this team still has a long, long way to go. On offense I don't see much difference. We brought in a couple new receivers, but I don't think they are much better than what we had. I'm hoping the draft changes my mind. Personally with as many draft picks as we have, I would spend 3 picks on WR's.

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36tds 12 ints 5028 yds (I have no idea just throwing out the first numbers that came into my head :-D )

Your gonna be very disappointed. Those look like Josh Allen type numbers.

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I believe the best benefit to Trevor Lawrence into season will be the playcalling. Engram and Arnold both out there during plays. RBs will go out for passes. There will be someone more likely to be open on a play more often. Doug is very good at this with his playcalling. Kirk will strive in this situation and will definitely be over 1,000 yards.

Realistically, I see Trevor having over 20 TDs and under 10 INTs. And at least a 7+ win season.

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I hear a ton of excuses like receivers dropped X amount of balls but what about Trevor?

LAWRENCE threw a lot of inaccurate balls and had no touch on his passes most of last year.

I'm going into this season with an open mind.

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Play calling. A lot of options. Reliable wide receivers who dont choke when trying to catch the ball. When you as a qb cant rely on your guy to catch it on third down, you start to press and might get rattled and start throwing some bad passes.

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I think we need to see the whole team improve, not just Trevor. One thing we are seeing across the league is that rules make it easier to play QB, hence more elite QBs. Trevor is still the most promising prospect we have had in a long time. I’m more focused on what I saw in the Colts game than what happened during the morass before urban was fired.

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I hear a ton of excuses like receivers dropped X amount of balls but what about Trevor?

LAWRENCE threw a lot of inaccurate balls and had no touch on his passes most of last year.

I'm going into this season with an open mind.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

Regardless of whom we add in the draft, or who we've already added in free agency. If Trevor Lawrence has another 12 td 17 int type season, he isn't the guy. A scary thought, I know because regardless if that happens or not he will probably get at least a 3rd season to "prove it" just because of his draft position. I know a lot of people on this board think I hate Trevor or want him to fail and that's the furthest thing from the truth but I'm just being real.

My personal expectation, however is that we will see growth but I do not feel like he's going to blow anyone away because that's just not how I see him at this point in time. I think with what i'd assume to be a much more durable Offensive line and hopefully a more productive receiving core that Trevor will at the very least, improve his productivity.

Realistic expectations for me are something like 7 wins, 20 TDs 12 ints. Personally, would be very unhappy with these kinds of numbers but at the very least it would show some sort of improvement. In a 17 game season, with a much better coaching staff/line/weapons I think my entire opinion would change on Trevor if he could get us 8-10 wins, throw around 30 TDs and keep the ints below 10. I know that this sounds a bit greedy, but taking into consideration the extra game a competent "elite" QB shouldn't be throwing less than 30 TDs in this modern era of football. And god forbid, no more 7 game stretches without scoring a TD.


I'm feeling very cautiously optimistic right now, I don't have an overwelming feeling of excitement for the season that I was hoping I would around this time last year because of how inept the QB and the rest of the team played. I just hope Trevor is dialed in and ready to get better and not just coasting through the offseason because he thinks he's "made of the right stuff".


Time will tell..

(Emphasis added)

So assuming your realistic expectations as placed in bold are met, where do you think that would place him among the AFC QBs?

Assuming he exceeds your expectations and reaches the second set of numbers, where do you think that would place him in a ranking relative to the other AFC QBs?

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Just like last season, I don't have any specific numbers in mind. I just wanna see steady improvement. How much that improvement is will depend on who we draft, because I don't see how we upgraded the WR corps with who we got in free agency.

To be clear, I'm not necessarily looking for statistical projections only, though I understand how that is essential to the analysis. 

What I want to know is assuming with a year's experience under his belt with better coaching and better personnel than last year, where do you think he will rank among the AFC QBs by the time the season is done?  

Would you be happy with that ranking given the competition and the expectations placed on Lawrence before he was drafted?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I think we will defiently see a improvement to last season

Thank you, but where would his improvement, whatever you think it may be place him in a ranking of all AFC QBs?

Would you be happy with that ranking, given the competition, or would you be disappointed based upon the hopes and expectations placed on Trevor Lawrence?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Just like last season, I don't have any specific numbers in mind. I just wanna see steady improvement. How much that improvement is will depend on who we draft, because I don't see how we upgraded the WR corps with who we got in free agency.

Wow.  We really see things differently.  While I am frustrated that we did not do what it took to land Cooper and now Woods, both WRs we signed elevated the floor of our WR corps at a minimum.  Without question Kirk is the best WR on the team right now.  That he is the best and is an X/Y hybrid does not bother me.  AND  I think it's imperative to get an X in the draft.  But X does not have to be our best receiver on Day 1.  

What if we move beyond binary thinking?  The Jags reasonably need 2 offseasons to compete for the division.  In the loaded AFC we have for the foreseeable future, I believe we're going to have to win the division to make the playoffs.  This free agency has brought real improvement on both sides of the ball.  If we don't get everything we need in the draft, we will still be playing better football in 2022 than in 2021.  I can get behind that.

(Emphasis added)

This is getting a little closer to the analysis I am looking for.

Assuming all possible improvement given his year's experience, the coaching and personnel, where do you think he will end the season ranked relative to the other AFC QBs?  Would that ranking be satisfactory to the fan base as a whole?  Would the level of improvement you are thinking of under this scenario be enough to quite the skeptics that he may be a bust or at the very least overrated as a rookie?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!