Wow.  We really see things differently.  While I am frustrated that we did not do what it took to land Cooper and now Woods, both WRs we signed elevated the floor of our WR corps at a minimum.  Without question Kirk is the best WR on the team right now.  That he is the best and is an X/Y hybrid does not bother me.  AND  I think it's imperative to get an X in the draft.  But X does not have to be our best receiver on Day 1.  

What if we move beyond binary thinking?  The Jags reasonably need 2 offseasons to compete for the division.  In the loaded AFC we have for the foreseeable future, I believe we're going to have to win the division to make the playoffs.  This free agency has brought real improvement on both sides of the ball.  If we don't get everything we need in the draft, we will still be playing better football in 2022 than in 2021.  I can get behind that.

(Emphasis added)

This is getting a little closer to the analysis I am looking for.

Assuming all possible improvement given his year's experience, the coaching and personnel, where do you think he will end the season ranked relative to the other AFC QBs?  Would that ranking be satisfactory to the fan base as a whole?  Would the level of improvement you are thinking of under this scenario be enough to quite the skeptics that he may be a bust or at the very least overrated as a rookie?

The AFC is so stacked with QB talent - he's probably not going to get above the #8-#10 range without injury above him on that list. 

He's probably #8 if Watson is suspended, #9 if not.  

Nonetheless - number 8 on that list could potentially be a 4200 yard passer with 20+ touchdowns. So he could have a good year with marked improvement and still be the 8th best QB in the AFC. 

Crazy times.

---

Let's hope he is the best QB in the division by the end of the season.

---

I hear a ton of excuses like receivers dropped X amount of balls but what about Trevor?

LAWRENCE threw a lot of inaccurate balls and had no touch on his passes most of last year.

I'm going into this season with an open mind.

I'm so relieved you're going in with an open mind.  I was very concerned about that.

---

If the receivers stop dropping the ball and get open more often, and
If our defense keeps us in games so the other team can't just rush the passer at will because we have to abandon the run, and
If our defense can get more turnovers,

then Trevor should have 20 TDs and 10 INTs without any improvement at all.  Same guy as last year, with a better team around him, I'm saying, 20TDs and 10 INTs. 

But, if we get all of that, plus Trevor takes the next step as a lot of players do in year 2 of their career, then I could see 27 TDs and 10 INTs.

(Emphasis added)

Assuming his numbers fall within the range you listed above (the first set of non individual improvement and the ones in bold), where do you think that would rank him among AFC QBs. assuming they all produce at a comparable level to last year (or the year before for Watson)?

Would fans be happy with that degree of improvement?

To aid in the analysis, I will list the QBs and their 2021 season statistics.

Patrick Mahomes 66.3% 4830 yards 37 TDs 13 INTs
Russell Wilson 64.8 %, 3112 yards 25 TDs 6 INTs (14 games)
Justin Herbert  65.9 %  5014 yards 38 TDs 15 INTs
Derek Carr 68.4% 4804 yards 23 TDs 14 INTs
Josh Allen  66.3% 4407 yds 36 TDs 15 INTs
Joe Burrow 70.4 % 4611 yards 34 TDs 14 INTs (16 games)
Lamar Jackson 64.4 % 2882 yards 16 TDs 13 INTs (12 games)
Deshaun Watson 70.2%, 4823 yards 33 TDs 7 INTs (2020 totals)
Ryan Tannehill 67.2%, 3734 yards, 21 TDs 14 INTs
Davis Mills 66.8% 2664 yards 16 TDs 10 INTs (13 games 9 starts)
Mac Jones 67.6%, 3801 yards, 22 TDs 13 INTs
Tua Tagoavailoa 67.8% 2653 yards 16 TDs 10 INTs (13 games)
Zach Wilson 55.6% 2334 9 TDs 11 INTs (13 games)
Mitch Trubisky 67% 2055 yardsm 16 TDs, 8 Ints (numbers from 2020, 10 starts)

I did not list a QB for the Colts because we don't know who their QB will be this year.  TBH, neither do they!

So given whatever numbers you (plural) expect TL to put up next year, where do you think that would rank him among AFC QBs?

Would those numbers and that subsequent ranking be enough to avoid disappointment in his performance?  Given the strength of the QB position in the conference, how reasonable are the expectations for him to go to the top?

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

(Emphasis added)

This is getting a little closer to the analysis I am looking for.

Assuming all possible improvement given his year's experience, the coaching and personnel, where do you think he will end the season ranked relative to the other AFC QBs?  Would that ranking be satisfactory to the fan base as a whole?  Would the level of improvement you are thinking of under this scenario be enough to quite the skeptics that he may be a bust or at the very least overrated as a rookie?

The AFC is so stacked with QB talent - he's probably not going to get above the #8-#10 range without injury above him on that list. 

He's probably #8 if Watson is suspended, #9 if not.  

Nonetheless - number 8 on that list could potentially be a 4200 yard passer with 20+ touchdowns. So he could have a good year with marked improvement and still be the 8th best QB in the AFC. 

Crazy times.

(emphasis added)

Precisely!

So considering he was touted as a generational QB, if he plays well and ranks 8th-9th in a QB heavy AFC, would he be a disappointment in some eyyes?

Where would he have to rank to avoid most of the talk of disappointment?

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Hard to say before we even see the draft. How much more help do we give Trevore in the draft?

---

Just like last season, I don't have any specific numbers in mind. I just wanna see steady improvement. How much that improvement is will depend on who we draft, because I don't see how we upgraded the WR corps with who we got in free agency.

Wow.  We really see things differently.  While I am frustrated that we did not do what it took to land Cooper and now Woods, both WRs we signed elevated the floor of our WR corps at a minimum.  Without question Kirk is the best WR on the team right now.  That he is the best and is an X/Y hybrid does not bother me.  AND  I think it's imperative to get an X in the draft.  But X does not have to be our best receiver on Day 1.  

What if we move beyond binary thinking?  The Jags reasonably need 2 offseasons to compete for the division.  In the loaded AFC we have for the foreseeable future, I believe we're going to have to win the division to make the playoffs.  This free agency has brought real improvement on both sides of the ball.  If we don't get everything we need in the draft, we will still be playing better football in 2022 than in 2021.  I can get behind that.

I'm not opposed to running a 2 TE offense with 2 Z's or flankers to complement them. We don't need to overdraft a true X so to speak. We just need people who catch the ball.

Also if the AFC is an arms race on QB's now. lets just counter by stockpiling defensive talent and having a nuclear arsenal of pass rushers!! Their QB's can't throw the ball if they're lying on their back. Even if we get a few "roughing the passers" the way to beat good QB's is to hit them, lets not get into a track meet when we can't measure up offensively, it's a lot easier to build a defense even if it's a shorter contention window, I say we rebuild Sacksonville!

---

Championship Formula:

1) Draft Trevor Lawrence!
2) Play good physical Defense! 
3) Keep 91% of the roster healthy!
4) ???
5) Blank #2
6) CHAMPIONSHIP!!!

I differ from some on this board in my belief that the free agent acquisitions will help Lawrence significantly. The draft should provide the receiving corps with another target for Lawrence. My hope is that they are able to land someone with the size/speed combination required to be a consistent weapon on the outside. Jameson Williams (via trade up), George Pickens and Christian Watson all have the potential to be that player- although it will naturally take some time for any of these players to adjust to the challenges of the NFL. The tight end room also improved significantly with the addition of Evan Engram. If both he and Dan Arnold remain healthy for most of the season, it would not surprise me at all if they combine for 115 receptions and 10 touchdowns. The offensive line must protect Lawrence and Scherff will help, but Walker Little needs to win the right tackle spot and perform consistently throughout the season. Shatley must show the coaches that their faith in him as a starter was justified.

To specifically answer your questions, if all the above happens Trevor Lawrence can finish the 2022-23 season as the 7th highest rated quarterback in the AFC. Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Herbert, Watson and Burrow will continue to be the top 6 next season. Lamar Jackson and Dereck Carr are also in the discussion for leading the second tier of AFC quarterbacks. Some will scoff at this prediction, but I'm a believer in Lawrence. Everything that could possibly go wrong DID last season. The coaching fiasco and multitude of dropped passes are at the top of the list followed by an injury to the best receiver and only real speed threat at this position. Lawrence proved his toughness throughout the season and clearly possesses the leadership traits needed for a quarterback. As far as the physical tools, this is not even worthy of debate. He completed some passes last season that only a small number of NFL quarterbacks have the ability to execute.

The vast majority of fans would naturally be thrilled if this happens. It would not be unreasonable for him to throw for 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns if his new receivers meet my expectations and he naturally must stay healthy. I do expect him to throw more interceptions than is optimal- about 15 for the season. Given these numbers, there will certainly be some "fans" who continue to call him a bust and overrated. Some people are simply never able to admit they were wrong and that will never change.

---

Wow what an assignment, but here goes.

Looking at the various QB rankings for last year he was anywhere between 32 and 27. He had an absentee-ish HC and a lot of new best friends/coaches that for the most part are not here anymore. Instead of playing for a team which had a skill level across the board superior to most of his competition he was on a team where many players were glad we had a team or they would be out of football. His results were:
17 games/59.6 pct/3641 pass yds/6.0ypa/12 pass TD/17 int/334 rush yds/2 rush TD/9 fumbles

This year he gets an experienced coach with a vision. A bunch of new best friend/coaches and hopefully a few better teammates. It could be categorized as his first year of playing organized Pro ball. I expect him to improve in a lot of areas. This year I would hope for:
17 games/65pct+/4,000yds+/ 7 ypa/20 td/9 int/450 rush yds/ 4 rush td/ 4 fumbles

Where that would rank him with the other QB's is subjective but should place him between 12 and 16.

I know hope is not a plan, but we are Jaguar fans, No?

---

A new broom always sweeps clean.

The AFC is so stacked with QB talent - he's probably not going to get above the #8-#10 range without injury above him on that list. 

He's probably #8 if Watson is suspended, #9 if not.  

Nonetheless - number 8 on that list could potentially be a 4200 yard passer with 20+ touchdowns. So he could have a good year with marked improvement and still be the 8th best QB in the AFC. 

Crazy times.

(emphasis added)

Precisely!

So considering he was touted as a generational QB, if he plays well and ranks 8th-9th in a QB heavy AFC, would he be a disappointment in some eyyes?

Where would he have to rank to avoid most of the talk of disappointment?

There will be hot-takes-a-plenty calling him a disappointment no matter what happens in 2022. 

We've got negative-nancies galore on the board and national pundits of varying ilk flooding social media and the airwaves with negative takes on former high draft picks who aren't immediate superstars. Premature rash judgements on young players to these people are just like chocolate cake to fat toddlers on their birthday.  They love that [BLEEP]. 

There will be plenty of naysayers regardless, but I suspect he takes enough of a positive step to quiet the majority of any unwarranted flack.

---

Hard to say before we even see the draft.  How much more help do we give Trevore in the draft?

Agreed...at this stage it is difficult to quantify.

For argument's sake, let's say we dd a WR, TE, OL and RB in the draft.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Wow.  We really see things differently.  While I am frustrated that we did not do what it took to land Cooper and now Woods, both WRs we signed elevated the floor of our WR corps at a minimum.  Without question Kirk is the best WR on the team right now.  That he is the best and is an X/Y hybrid does not bother me.  AND  I think it's imperative to get an X in the draft.  But X does not have to be our best receiver on Day 1.  

What if we move beyond binary thinking?  The Jags reasonably need 2 offseasons to compete for the division.  In the loaded AFC we have for the foreseeable future, I believe we're going to have to win the division to make the playoffs.  This free agency has brought real improvement on both sides of the ball.  If we don't get everything we need in the draft, we will still be playing better football in 2022 than in 2021.  I can get behind that.

I'm not opposed to running a 2 TE offense with 2 Z's or flankers to complement them. We don't need to overdraft a true X so to speak. We just need people who catch the ball.

Also if the AFC is an arms race on QB's now. lets just counter by stockpiling defensive talent and having a nuclear arsenal of pass rushers!! Their QB's can't throw the ball if they're lying on their back. Even if we get a few "roughing the passers" the way to beat good QB's is to hit them, lets not get into a track meet when we can't measure up offensively, it's a lot easier to build a defense even if it's a shorter contention window, I say we rebuild Sacksonville!

I'm fairly confident we run a lot of 2 TE sets.

As for your draft strategy to counteract the offensive arms race, I submit there is some wisdom behind that approach.

First the Chargers offered their first signs of doing just that by trading for Khalil Mack to pair opposite Bosa.

Secondly, this is a deep draft for edge rushers, and it's possible to get a quality edge rusher in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Though my preference is to load up on offense, I could get behind a strategy to get an edge rusher at 1, then come back and follow it up with another edge rusher, giving us four decent ones (Allen, Hurch, Smoot and then another rookie)..  That would give us quality depth and a solid rotation to keep the guys fresh.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

(emphasis added)

Precisely!

So considering he was touted as a generational QB, if he plays well and ranks 8th-9th in a QB heavy AFC, would he be a disappointment in some eyyes?

Where would he have to rank to avoid most of the talk of disappointment?

There will be hot-takes-a-plenty calling him a disappointment no matter what happens in 2022. 

We've got negative-nancies galore on the board and national pundits of varying ilk flooding social media and the airwaves with negative takes on former high draft picks who aren't immediate superstars. Premature rash judgements on young players to these people are just like chocolate cake to fat toddlers on their birthday.  They love that [BLEEP]. 

There will be plenty of naysayers regardless, but I suspect he takes enough of a positive step to quiet the majority of any unwarranted flack.

Agreed completely.

On the other hand, is being critical always the result of being a negative nancy?  If TL was hyped as this generational talent, at what point can he be faulted for not reaching that level of play?

Even in the hyper-competitive QB race in the AFC, is there a point where TL can take legitimate blame for not ascending above the middle of the pack?

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I think the Jaguars have done a lot to upgrade the team that will help Lawrence.  I'm hoping better coaching helps with our existing players.  Agnew is a converted defensive back.  Shenault has only been in the league two years.  I also think Marvin Jones will do better if we have a deep threat on the field.  His production dropped after we lost Chark.  In regard to Chark, yes we lost him, but he only played 3 full games last year so not a major impact.  While I think they were over-paid, I do think Kirk and Jones improves our wide receiver group.  I would be shocked if we didn't use a day two draft pick at the position as well.  They will probably use their #33 overall pick and wouldn't surprise me if they traded up into the first round to get a quality receiver.  

At tight end, we added Evan Engram.  Having Dan Arnold for a full season will help.  He played in less than half of our games due to being a mid-season acquisition and then finishing the year injured.  It also wouldn't surprise me if we used a day two draft pick on another tight end.  

At running back, I'm hoping that ETN is healthy which would be another receiving weapon that didn't exist last year.

Our offensive line is better.  I think Walker Little will upgrade a starting tackle spot.  Cam Robinson returns so we are no worse off at the other tackle spot.  We upgraded one guard sport with a pro-bowler.  With Bartch returning, we are no worse at the other guard spot, and he could improve.  He was a small school player that was considered a project.  I could also easily see him getting competition from a draft pick.  Guards tend to fall in the draft.   As of writing this, Linder also returns.  That would be a loss if he is cut, but Shatley isn't bad and played roughly half of last season anyway.  I also would find it likely that we draft a center if Linder is cut.  Centers tend to fall in the draft and might upgrade Shatley.  The bottom line is I think our offensive line overall will be better.

I am also one who thinks defense interconnects with offense.  Our defense will be improved which will give Lawrence better field position and more opportunities to make touchdowns.  Also by not being down so many points early in the game, we can have a more balanced offense.  The other team not knowing if we are going to run or pass will make life much easier on Lawrence.  

The question is where will he rank?  It's hard to predict.  I agree that there are a lot of good quarterbacks in the conference.  I think middle of the pack is reasonable.  I'll say eighth.

---

I differ from some on this board in my belief that the free agent acquisitions will help Lawrence significantly. The draft should provide the receiving corps with another target for Lawrence. My hope is that they are able to land someone with the size/speed combination required to be a consistent weapon on the outside. Jameson Williams (via trade up), George Pickens and Christian Watson all have the potential to be that player- although it will naturally take some time for any of these players to adjust to the challenges of the NFL. The tight end room also improved significantly with the addition of Evan Engram. If both he and Dan Arnold remain healthy for most of the season, it would not surprise me at all if they combine for 115 receptions and 10 touchdowns. The offensive line must protect Lawrence and Scherff will help, but Walker Little needs to win the right tackle spot and perform consistently throughout the season. Shatley must show the coaches that their faith in him as a starter was justified.

To specifically answer your questions, if all the above happens Trevor Lawrence can finish the 2022-23 season as the 7th highest rated quarterback in the AFC. Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Herbert, Watson and Burrow will continue to be the top 6 next season. Lamar Jackson and Dereck Carr are also in the discussion for leading the second tier of AFC quarterbacks. Some will scoff at this prediction, but I'm a believer in Lawrence. Everything that could possibly go wrong DID last season. The coaching fiasco and multitude of dropped passes are at the top of the list followed by an injury to the best receiver and only real speed threat at this position. Lawrence proved his toughness throughout the season and clearly possesses the leadership traits needed for a quarterback. As far as the physical tools, this is not even worthy of debate. He completed some passes last season that only a small number of NFL quarterbacks have the ability to execute.

The vast majority of fans would naturally be thrilled if this happens. It would not be unreasonable for him to throw for 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns if his new receivers meet my expectations and he naturally must stay healthy. I do expect him to throw more interceptions than is optimal- about 15 for the season. Given these numbers, there will certainly be some "fans" who continue to call him a bust and overrated. Some people are simply never able to admit they were wrong and that will never change.

(Emphasis added)

So in pretty much a best case scenario, Trevor Lawrence can rank 7th best in the AFC?

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Wow what an assignment, but here goes. 

Looking at the various QB rankings for last year he was anywhere between 32 and 27. He had an absentee-ish HC and a lot of new best friends/coaches that for the most part are not here anymore. Instead of playing for a team which had a skill level across the board superior to most of his competition he was on a team where many players were glad we had a team or they would be out of football.  His results were:
17 games/59.6 pct/3641 pass yds/6.0ypa/12 pass TD/17 int/334 rush yds/2 rush TD/9 fumbles

This year he gets an experienced coach with a vision. A bunch of new best friend/coaches and hopefully a few better teammates.  It could be categorized as his first year of playing organized Pro ball. I expect him to improve in a lot of areas.  This year I would hope for:
17 games/65pct+/4,000yds+/ 7 ypa/20 td/9 int/450 rush yds/ 4 rush td/ 4 fumbles

Where that would rank him with the other QB's is subjective but should place him between 12 and 16. 

I know hope is not a plan, but we are Jaguar fans, No?

Thanks for your efforts in completing the assignment.

Indeed we are Jaguars fans, gluttons for punishment however we may be.

But more substantively, if he shows across the board improvement, he could still rank anywhere from 12th to 16th in the AFC?  Do I read you correctly?

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

If the receivers stop dropping the ball and get open more often, and
If our defense keeps us in games so the other team can't just rush the passer at will because we have to abandon the run, and
If our defense can get more turnovers,

then Trevor should have 20 TDs and 10 INTs without any improvement at all.  Same guy as last year, with a better team around him, I'm saying, 20TDs and 10 INTs. 

But, if we get all of that, plus Trevor takes the next step as a lot of players do in year 2 of their career, then I could see 27 TDs and 10 INTs.

(Emphasis added)

Assuming his numbers fall within the range you listed above (the first set of non individual improvement and the ones in bold), where do you think that would rank him among AFC QBs. assuming they all produce at a comparable level to last year (or the year before for Watson)?

Would fans be happy with that degree of improvement?

To aid in the analysis, I will list the QBs and their 2021 season statistics.

Patrick Mahomes 66.3% 4830 yards 37 TDs 13 INTs
Russell Wilson 64.8 %, 3112 yards 25 TDs 6 INTs (14 games)
Justin Herbert  65.9 %  5014 yards 38 TDs 15 INTs
Derek Carr 68.4% 4804 yards 23 TDs 14 INTs
Josh Allen  66.3% 4407 yds 36 TDs 15 INTs
Joe Burrow 70.4 % 4611 yards 34 TDs 14 INTs (16 games)
Lamar Jackson 64.4 % 2882 yards 16 TDs 13 INTs (12 games)
Deshaun Watson 70.2%, 4823 yards 33 TDs 7 INTs (2020 totals)
Ryan Tannehill 67.2%, 3734 yards, 21 TDs 14 INTs
Davis Mills 66.8% 2664 yards 16 TDs 10 INTs (13 games 9 starts)
Mac Jones 67.6%, 3801 yards, 22 TDs 13 INTs
Tua Tagoavailoa 67.8% 2653 yards 16 TDs 10 INTs (13 games)
Zach Wilson 55.6% 2334 9 TDs 11 INTs (13 games)
Mitch Trubisky 67% 2055 yardsm 16 TDs, 8 Ints (numbers from 2020, 10 starts)

I did not list a QB for the Colts because we don't know who their QB will be this year.  TBH, neither do they!

So given whatever numbers you (plural) expect TL to put up next year, where do you think that would rank him among AFC QBs?

Would those numbers and that subsequent ranking be enough to avoid disappointment in his performance?  Given the strength of the QB position in the conference, how reasonable are the expectations for him to go to the top?

I know a lot of people rated him as the best QB prospect to come along in a very long time, but he doesn't have to justify that expectation for me to be happy with him.  

If you want me to prognosticate, then I would expect he will end the season ranked (in my mind) about #5 to #8 in the AFC maybe.  I would be very happy with that in year 2.  

I would put him behind Mahomes, Wilson, Herbert, Burrow, and Josh Allen in year 2.  But those are all elite QBs.  So it's no knock on Trevor if he is behind those guys in his second season.  So much depends on the team around him.

---

I think the Jaguars have done a lot to upgrade the team that will help Lawrence.  I'm hoping better coaching helps with our existing players.  Agnew is a converted defensive back.  Shenault has only been in the league two years.  I also think Marvin Jones will do better if we have a deep threat on the field.  His production dropped after we lost Chark.  In regard to Chark, yes we lost him, but he only played 3 full games last year so not a major impact.  While I think they were over-paid, I do think Kirk and Jones improves our wide receiver group.  I would be shocked if we didn't use a day two draft pick at the position as well.  They will probably use their #33 overall pick and wouldn't surprise me if they traded up into the first round to get a quality receiver.  

At tight end, we added Evan Engram.  Having Dan Arnold for a full season will help.  He played in less than half of our games due to being a mid-season acquisition and then finishing the year injured.  It also wouldn't surprise me if we used a day two draft pick on another tight end.  

At running back, I'm hoping that ETN is healthy which would be another receiving weapon that didn't exist last year.

Our offensive line is better.  I think Walker Little will upgrade a starting tackle spot.  Cam Robinson returns so we are no worse off at the other tackle spot.  We upgraded one guard sport with a pro-bowler.  With Bartch returning, we are no worse at the other guard spot, and he could improve.  He was a small school player that was considered a project.  I could also easily see him getting competition from a draft pick.  Guards tend to fall in the draft.   As of writing this, Linder also returns.  That would be a loss if he is cut, but Shatley isn't bad and played roughly half of last season anyway.  I also would find it likely that we draft a center if Linder is cut.  Centers tend to fall in the draft and might upgrade Shatley.  The bottom line is I think our offensive line overall will be better.

I am also one who thinks defense interconnects with offense.  Our defense will be improved which will give Lawrence better field position and more opportunities to make touchdowns.  Also by not being down so many points early in the game, we can have a more balanced offense.  The other team not knowing if we are going to run or pass will make life much easier on Lawrence.  

The question is where will he rank?  It's hard to predict.  I agree that there are a lot of good quarterbacks in the conference.  I think middle of the pack is reasonable.  I'll say eighth.

I agree with you generally that the talent level has increased.  However, I do wonder if it has/will be increased enough to enable Trevor Lawrence to maximize his skills and production.  I sill don't trust Baalke to be able to identufy a WR in the draft, though I am hoping Pederson's influence can offset that.  Without question Scherff improves the RG spot.  I'd like to see the Jaguars draft another G in the mid rounds.  I'd also like to see the Jaguars draft another WR relatively early.  While I think Kirk improves  th speed of our WR group, I'm not sure how successful he cn be in our system without a Hopkins and Green and Moore taking attention away from him.  I'm not sure he can function outside.  I am confident that Engram will improve our TE room, and I expect the team to draft another TE.  Though Agnew was a big play threat last year, I think his receiving skill is somewhat dubious and he should not be relied upon to be a big contributor, even assuming he is completely recovered.

Given the overall level of QB play in the AFC, middle of the pack would represent good improvement

---

(Emphasis added)

Assuming his numbers fall within the range you listed above (the first set of non individual improvement and the ones in bold), where do you think that would rank him among AFC QBs. assuming they all produce at a comparable level to last year (or the year before for Watson)?

Would fans be happy with that degree of improvement?

To aid in the analysis, I will list the QBs and their 2021 season statistics.

Patrick Mahomes 66.3% 4830 yards 37 TDs 13 INTs
Russell Wilson 64.8 %, 3112 yards 25 TDs 6 INTs (14 games)
Justin Herbert  65.9 %  5014 yards 38 TDs 15 INTs
Derek Carr 68.4% 4804 yards 23 TDs 14 INTs
Josh Allen  66.3% 4407 yds 36 TDs 15 INTs
Joe Burrow 70.4 % 4611 yards 34 TDs 14 INTs (16 games)
Lamar Jackson 64.4 % 2882 yards 16 TDs 13 INTs (12 games)
Deshaun Watson 70.2%, 4823 yards 33 TDs 7 INTs (2020 totals)
Ryan Tannehill 67.2%, 3734 yards, 21 TDs 14 INTs
Davis Mills 66.8% 2664 yards 16 TDs 10 INTs (13 games 9 starts)
Mac Jones 67.6%, 3801 yards, 22 TDs 13 INTs
Tua Tagoavailoa 67.8% 2653 yards 16 TDs 10 INTs (13 games)
Zach Wilson 55.6% 2334 9 TDs 11 INTs (13 games)
Mitch Trubisky 67% 2055 yardsm 16 TDs, 8 Ints (numbers from 2020, 10 starts)

I did not list a QB for the Colts because we don't know who their QB will be this year.  TBH, neither do they!

So given whatever numbers you (plural) expect TL to put up next year, where do you think that would rank him among AFC QBs?

Would those numbers and that subsequent ranking be enough to avoid disappointment in his performance?  Given the strength of the QB position in the conference, how reasonable are the expectations for him to go to the top?

I know a lot of people rated him as the best QB prospect to come along in a very long time, but he doesn't have to justify that expectation for me to be happy with him.  

If you want me to prognosticate, then I would expect he will end the season ranked (in my mind) about #5 to #8 in the AFC maybe.  I would be very happy with that in year 2.  

I would put him behind Mahomes, Wilson, Herbert, Burrow, and Josh Allen in year 2.  But those are all elite QBs.  So it's no knock on Trevor if he is behind those guys in his second season.  So much depends on the team around him.

Agreed completely with this.

If all goes well, he should be somewhere in the middle of the pack in this group of outstanding QBs.  I just wonder if Baalke is up to the task of finding him enough receiving help to elevate his play.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Bullseye

Wow what an assignment, but here goes. 

Looking at the various QB rankings for last year he was anywhere between 32 and 27. He had an absentee-ish HC and a lot of new best friends/coaches that for the most part are not here anymore. Instead of playing for a team which had a skill level across the board superior to most of his competition he was on a team where many players were glad we had a team or they would be out of football.  His results were:
17 games/59.6 pct/3641 pass yds/6.0ypa/12 pass TD/17 int/334 rush yds/2 rush TD/9 fumbles

This year he gets an experienced coach with a vision. A bunch of new best friend/coaches and hopefully a few better teammates.  It could be categorized as his first year of playing organized Pro ball. I expect him to improve in a lot of areas.  This year I would hope for:
17 games/65pct+/4,000yds+/ 7 ypa/20 td/9 int/450 rush yds/ 4 rush td/ 4 fumbles

Where that would rank him with the other QB's is subjective but should place him between 12 and 16. 

I know hope is not a plan, but we are Jaguar fans, No?

Thanks for your efforts in completing the assignment.

Indeed we are Jaguars fans, gluttons for punishment however we may be.

But more substantively, if he shows across the board improvement, he could still rank anywhere from 12th to 16th in the AFC?  Do I read you correctly?


Yes, since I was looking at both AFC/NFC rankings 12-16 considering the QB's in both leagues.  I needed a benchmark to think about sorry if you meant AFC only.  Since this is a team game other players can have an effect on the QB's performance. I really didn't want to list those what some people say are excuses.  Expecting much more than that is setting me up for disappointment. (just my opinion)

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A new broom always sweeps clean.

Just read the 3 games Little started we went 2-1. 1-13 when he didn't start. He was definitely a difference maker on the oline and it really showed the last game of the season

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