Hey Bullseye,
Great post as always. I'm not one for predictions and such, but it looks like it will be really hard for Trevor to crack the top half of that list even if he has a very good year. Most of those AFC QBs have been putting up numbers like that for some time.
My hope is that Trevor at least flashes at times so that he sometimes looks as good as anyone on that list, but I believe it will be hard for him to put up consistent numbers that would allow him to get too high on that list from a yearly totals standpoint.

One thing that strikes me funny... Trubisky is still penciled in as a starter somewhere?!? Oh boy, what are the Steelers thinking? They should go ahead and just trade anyone worth anything that isn't on a rookie contract and go all in on the tank job.

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(emphasis added)

You can add Matt Ryan to that list, because the Colts just traded a 3rd round pick to Atlanta for him.

Where does this leave Baker Mayfield?

Time Will Tell.

NH3...

Good question.

My guess is somewhere in the NFC.

It seems like every team in the AFC has upgraded their QB position within the last 5 seasons.

Not many truly iffy QBs in the AFC at this point.

Maybe Tua in Miami, Tannehill in Tennessee, Trubisky in Pittsburgh, and maybe Davis Mills in Houston.

Not many teams in the AFC that Mayfield could upgrade.

The NFC, however, is a different story.

Mayfield upgrades the Giants, maybe the Commanders, maybe Philly.

He definitely upgrades Carolina, Atlanta, and Detroit.

Seattle would be upgraded by Mayfield.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I hear a ton of excuses like receivers dropped X amount of balls but what about Trevor?

LAWRENCE threw a lot of inaccurate balls and had no touch on his passes most of last year.

I'm going into this season with an open mind.

How do you separate the performance of the QB from the performance of the surrounding cast?

They are inextricably linked.

I don't think that they are FULLY inextricably.  There were a few posts I made in the (not-to-start-that-up-again) critique post, that showed Lawrence making a throw that a QB, rookie-or-not, cannot make. (Here's one of the posts I found: link)  Hopefully Pederson can iron that out, and I think he has to be a success with the Jaguars.  My concern with Pederson is that he has to turn Lawrence into a Nick Foles type of QB.  A guy that can run his offense, but becomes very readable after a season or a few games for the NFL defenses.

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Hey Bullseye,
Great post as always.  I'm not one for predictions and such, but it looks like it will be really hard for Trevor to crack the top half of that list even if he has a very good year.  Most of those AFC QBs have been putting up numbers like that for some time.
My hope is that Trevor at least flashes at times so that he sometimes looks as good as anyone on that list, but I believe it will be hard for him to put up consistent numbers that would allow him to get too high on that list from a yearly totals standpoint.

One thing that strikes me funny...  Trubisky is still penciled in as a starter somewhere?!?  Oh boy, what are the Steelers thinking?  They should go ahead and just trade anyone worth anything that isn't on a rookie contract and go all in on the tank job.

Thanks.

I think my larger point isn't so much as to solicit predictions, but to make people see that he could be on pace to make substantial improvement, but still be in the middle of the pack in the AFC because of how many stud QBs there are.  I think to bash him because he is a middle of the pack QB  in this skewed environment would be folly.

As for Trubisky being projected as a starter, who else do the Steelers currently have to offer?

Haskins?  Rudolph?

I don't believe the Steelers will start trading players away.  I believe the Steelers will try to resemble the Neil O'Donnell/Mike Tomsczak era Steelers of the mid 1990s, with a heavy emphasis on running the ball.  If they make any major rebuilds, it may really manifest itself next year.  I think if Willis should fall to Pittsburgh at 20, they take him, but I think otherwise they wait for a better QB class.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/15...u96ARs-8Nw

Just not fair lol

Meanwhile in the NFC.....

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Overall numbers seem difficult to pin down. I think a better metric is success in situational areas of the game. Say rating and TD passes in the red zone, points per possession with less than 4 minutes in half, and game winning/tying drives in 4th quarters.

To me that is more important specific to T-Law's development than consolidated numbers. I also think those give you a better window into whether it can be THE guy in the playoffs.

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How do you separate the performance of the QB from the performance of the surrounding cast?

They are inextricably linked.

I don't think that they are FULLY inextricably.  There were a few posts I made in the (not-to-start-that-up-again) critique post, that showed Lawrence making a throw that a QB, rookie-or-not, cannot make. (Here's one of the posts I found: link)  Hopefully Pederson can iron that out, and I think he has to be a success with the Jaguars.  My concern with Pederson is that he has to turn Lawrence into a Nick Foles type of QB.  A guy that can run his offense, but becomes very readable after a season or a few games for the NFL defenses.

Well let's put it this way.  A QBs job is to distribute the ball to the other skill position players on offense.  Cinversely, the other skill players on offense have the mandate to catch the ball when distributed to them and make the best play possible.

If a QB hands the ball off properly to a RB on a running play, and after receiving the handoff, the RB fumbles when hit, how can you reasonably blame the QB for a subsequent RB fumble?

Similarly, if the QB makes the proper blitz pickup and sets the protection correctly. makes the right pre snap reads, collects the snap, executes his drop timely, correctly reads the defense, exercises good mechanics and throws an accurate pass that hits the WR in the hands/numbers, he should not be blamed for any drop by the receiver on the play.

Do I think QBs can contribute to poor WR performance on a given play?  Yes.  An inaccurate throw or a throw that leads a WR into an oncoming safety can be dropped.  I think there were plays where TLs mechanics were off, leading to inaccurate throws, especially on underneath routes, and those inaccuracies lead to some of the drops.

By the same token, some of those inaccuracies were directly tied to a lack of protection, or poor route running by receivers.
Just because he was the best rated QB prospect coming into the draft last year, it doesn't mean he had nothing to work on, either when he first entered the league or he developed some bad habits as the season wore on.  I don't think it's any big shock for people to conclude he received piss poor coaching last year.  That's pretty much the consensus. As a result, some of the inaccuracies attributable to him could have been mitigate if there were anything approaching competent coaching.

Health permitting, I believe Trevor Lawrence will be improved this year because he will have better coaching, a better scheme, with better personnel and a year's experience under his belt.  But I think given the limitations of the roster, his relative inexperience especially within the scheme, it may only get him at the midpoint among AFC QBs.  It would be a mistake to attempt to toss the baby out with the bathwater if that happens given how strong the QB position is in the AFC.

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Overall numbers seem difficult to pin down. I think  a better metric is success in situational areas of the game. Say rating and TD passes in the red zone, points per possession with less than 4 minutes in half, and game winning/tying drives in 4th quarters.

To me that is more important specific to T-Law's development than consolidated numbers. I also think those give you a better window into whether it can be THE guy in the playoffs.

Agreed completely.

The AFC is so stacked with stud QBs, he can make all kinds of improvement and still be a middle of the pack guy.  if the team does not provide him with adequate help, he may not rank that high through little fault of his own.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Where does this leave Baker Mayfield?

Time Will Tell.

NH3...

Good question.

My guess is somewhere in the NFC.

It seems like every team in the AFC has upgraded their QB position within the last 5 seasons.

Not many truly iffy QBs in the AFC at this point.

Maybe Tua in Miami, Tannehill in Tennessee, Trubisky in Pittsburgh, and maybe Davis Mills in Houston.

Not many teams in the AFC that Mayfield could upgrade.

The NFC, however, is a different story.

Mayfield upgrades the Giants, maybe the Commanders, maybe Philly.

He definitely upgrades Carolina, Atlanta, and Detroit.

Seattle would be upgraded by Mayfield.

I’d like to see Detroit trade for him. And then draft Malik Willis to develop for a couple of years.

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The team will only go as far as the quality of the offensive line.

Do we go big or go home and Yolo?

Playoffs or bust

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I'm not going to root for the tittians ever. the jags need to learn to take some chances. we could have players like patrick peterson,we could've got calais campel back who was a leader of sacksonville. 

look at the browns getting watson,takeing a chance on a greatt qb,they will win a super bowl before jags have a winning season.   

I won't believe doug is the right head coach until  jags have a winning season more then every other  6 to 8 years.  I can't stand for the tittians,ill never cheer for them. 

I will be very shocked if jags draft Hutuichson from  mighen state.  if anyone here is expecting jags to have a winning season this next season,you forget it takes time to build winning teams.

so you want to throw all our money at old guys whose next big move is retirement? Snowy, come on. After many many years of this same story, haven't you figured out yet that paying someone for what they did or who they were 5 years ago isn't going to serve you well in this league.

The Browns getting Watson was bad, they got fleeced by the tinhorns and then doubled down by fully guaranteeing the dude's deal. I have a feeling this deal is gonna be as bad for them as hiring Meyer was for us. Our saving grace, though, is that Urbz' failure is behind us, and we really don't have years of negative affects that will continue to remind us of the mistake like Cleveland may if Watson doesn't progress.

And the wolverines on this board are gonna tear you a new one for confusing them with MSU.

Can we come to an agreement that if the Jags do darft Hutch, will you stop with these uninformed diatribes?

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I'm not going to root for the tittians ever. the jags need to learn to take some chances. we could have players like patrick peterson,we could've got calais campel back who was a leader of sacksonville. 

look at the browns getting watson,takeing a chance on a greatt qb,they will win a super bowl before jags have a winning season.   

I won't believe doug is the right head coach until  jags have a winning season more then every other  6 to 8 years.  I can't stand for the tittians,ill never cheer for them. 

I will be very shocked if jags draft Hutuichson from  mighen state.  if anyone here is expecting jags to have a winning season this next season,you forget it takes time to build winning teams.

Patrick Peterson who is gonna be 32 and no one wants to sign right now?
Calais who will be 36 and has been declining??

And just before you said no one knows about Kirk? lol

Just go root for the tittians, no one needs you here.

every other NFL fan = snowy's dad.
His dad is a fountain of NFL ignorance if what snowy shares with us is accurate. It's like living with his own personal Skip Bayless.

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Jags could've gone after dontea adams too, and they didn't. 

the team is so afriad to sign big name super stars that would help them  possbilley win a super bowl in time. 

I want the jags to be winner,but its obvious Khan doesn't.

Paying 140Mill to a 30 year old receiver is foolishness.
Doing that AND giving up picks for the honor is a much more offensive way to describe fools.

What big name FA did the Bungles throw money at last year that got them on their SB run, snowy?
For that matter, who on the Chiefs was a mega-deal free agent?

We all, Khan inclusive want the Jags to be a winner. Spending like a madman on aging players ain't the way to do it.

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(emphasis added)

You can add Matt Ryan to that list, because the Colts just traded a 3rd round pick to Atlanta for him.

Where does this leave Baker Mayfield?

Time Will Tell.

NH3...

Seattle, or a year as a backup somewhere. That, or he sits back and waits for someone to get hurt in preseason and then choose to sign where starting is more viable.

Frankly, I think Detroit oughta kick the tires. Goff ain't nothin', and he's out after this year unless he puts together a career year.

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Its a very good question Bullseye and one i think people need to think about. The AFC took a step up again this year and its going to be a real fight pretty much every week. 

For me, i know in recent years the formula has been get a rookie QB then spend big on cap everywhere else on the roster while you have the rookie QB contract and hope you build a championship team. We havent been able to do that as the roster we had when we got Lawrence wasa dumpster fire and then we had Meyer waste a year. The one thing Pederson said that i liked most was this year was about improving the roster and improving the players we have and i think thats the path for us. I know its not exciting and may take another year or two to show those results but we arent a good draft or FA signing away from making a deep run.

I very much like the additions we made in FA and think the draft picks will improve us and Pederson and his system and coaches will improve us so i think there are things to be excited about. I felt so sorry for Lawrence at times last year as the kid was trying so damn hard and everything around him was conspiring against him. This is a fresh start with a HC who was a QB and i think we see more of the real Trevor Lawrence this year.

If the D can start getting stops and scoring points and getting turnovers we may shock a few teams and it will be good experience playing stronger teams to see where the bar we have to reach is now.

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My reasonable expectations

1. Cut down on the errand throws

2. Show touch on the ball. Every pass does not have to be a cannon shot.

3. Help his receivers. Many forget how often receivers had to reach behind or stretch out for footballs last year. Lots of cross patterns where receivers where reaching behind instead of in front comes to mind for example.

Trevor had more than a handful of WOW moments last year. On the flip side, Trevor had many more Head scratching moments that one wants to see from a consensus number 1 pick.

The most basic Expectation from Trevor? Consistency!

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My reasonable expectations

1. Cut down on the errand throws

2. Show touch on the ball.  Every pass does not have to be a cannon shot.

3. Help his receivers.  Many forget how often receivers had to reach behind or stretch out for footballs last year.  Lots of cross patterns where receivers where reaching behind instead of in front comes to mind for example.

Trevor had more than a handful of WOW moments last year.  On the flip side, Trevor had many more Head scratching moments that one wants to see from a consensus number 1 pick.

The most basic Expectation from Trevor?  Consistency!

You spelled "horrendous" wrong. 

(also "errant")

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Its a very good question Bullseye and one i think people need to think about. The AFC took a step up again this year and its going to be a real fight pretty much every week. 

For me, i know in recent years the formula has been get a rookie QB then spend big on cap everywhere else on the roster while you have the rookie QB contract and hope you build a championship team. We havent been able to do that as the roster we had when we got Lawrence wasa dumpster fire and then we had Meyer waste a year. The one thing Pederson said that i liked most was this year was about improving the roster and improving the players we have and i think thats the path for us. I know its not exciting and may take another year or two to show those results but we arent a good draft or FA signing away from making a deep run.

I very much like the additions we made in FA and think the draft picks will improve us and Pederson and his system and coaches will improve us so i think there are things to be excited about. I felt so sorry for Lawrence at times last year as the kid was trying so damn hard and everything around him was conspiring against him. This is a fresh start with a HC who was a QB and i think we see more of the real Trevor Lawrence this year.

If the D can start getting stops and scoring points and getting turnovers we may shock a few teams and it will be good experience playing stronger teams to see where the bar we have to reach is now.

I totally agree that the AFC as a whole has taken a huge step up from top to bottom over the past few years.  Most teams have their QBs of the present, and most of them are in their early primes.    Sadly, I can't recall who on the board made this astute observation (apologies to that individual), but he stated our way of making the playoffs is to win the division.  If Trevor Lawrence makes the improvement this year thanks in part to Pederson's coaching and better personnel, it's possible that the games against division opponents will represent the games most likely to feature the Jaguars with an edge at QB.  Though he has performed decently in their system with Henry running the ball, I don't think the tacks really trust Tannehill.  Worse for them, their offensive line can't seem to pass block worth anything.  Although the Colts just traded for Matt Ryan and he is still viewed favorably around the league, the Colts still need a LT to protect him and receivers to which to throw.  Furthermore, he is...what...36-37 years old and coming off one of the worst seasons in his career.  He may be an improvement over last years' performance by Wentz, he still does not represent their long term answer at QB, and in another year or so, they'll be looking for his replacement.  Davis Mills was a pleasant surprise for the Texans, and the Texans have a bunch of picks over the next three seasons in the aftermath of the Watson trade.  But few actually think he'll be better than Trevor Lawrence being coached by Pederson, much less anywhere close to Watson.

That said, even with that possible roadmap, it wn't be easy under most reasonable expectations, even if our division has the worst QBs in the AFC.  Tennessee owns us until we prove otherwise, as Henry embarrasses us like no other RB has.  Houston isn't far behind, though at least on paper last year we had the better team.  We have had success against the Colts, but fron 1-53, they have the most talented roster in the division.

Bottom line, it's going to be an absolute fight for teams in the AFC to reach the playoffs because of all of the quality QBs.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Having urban as the coach was equivelant to trevor playing in quicksand

I think he will exceed and excell this season

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Having urban as the coach was equivelant to trevor playing in quicksand

I think he will exceed and excell this season

I sure hope so.

As loaded as the QB position is in the AFC, it would be great to see Trevor Lawrence ascend to the top of the QB rankings this season.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Its a very good question Bullseye and one i think people need to think about. The AFC took a step up again this year and its going to be a real fight pretty much every week. 

For me, i know in recent years the formula has been get a rookie QB then spend big on cap everywhere else on the roster while you have the rookie QB contract and hope you build a championship team. We havent been able to do that as the roster we had when we got Lawrence wasa dumpster fire and then we had Meyer waste a year. The one thing Pederson said that i liked most was this year was about improving the roster and improving the players we have and i think thats the path for us. I know its not exciting and may take another year or two to show those results but we arent a good draft or FA signing away from making a deep run.

I very much like the additions we made in FA and think the draft picks will improve us and Pederson and his system and coaches will improve us so i think there are things to be excited about. I felt so sorry for Lawrence at times last year as the kid was trying so damn hard and everything around him was conspiring against him. This is a fresh start with a HC who was a QB and i think we see more of the real Trevor Lawrence this year.

If the D can start getting stops and scoring points and getting turnovers we may shock a few teams and it will be good experience playing stronger teams to see where the bar we have to reach is now.

I totally agree that the AFC as a whole has taken a huge step up from top to bottom over the past few years.  Most teams have their QBs of the present, and most of them are in their early primes.    Sadly, I can't recall who on the board made this astute observation (apologies to that individual), but he stated our way of making the playoffs is to win the division.  If Trevor Lawrence makes the improvement this year thanks in part to Pederson's coaching and better personnel, it's possible that the games against division opponents will represent the games most likely to feature the Jaguars with an edge at QB.  Though he has performed decently in their system with Henry running the ball, I don't think the tacks really trust Tannehill.  Worse for them, their offensive line can't seem to pass block worth anything.  Although the Colts just traded for Matt Ryan and he is still viewed favorably around the league, the Colts still need a LT to protect him and receivers to which to throw.  Furthermore, he is...what...36-37 years old and coming off one of the worst seasons in his career.  He may be an improvement over last years' performance by Wentz, he still does not represent their long term answer at QB, and in another year or so, they'll be looking for his replacement.  Davis Mills was a pleasant surprise for the Texans, and the Texans have a bunch of picks over the next three seasons in the aftermath of the Watson trade.  But few actually think he'll be better than Trevor Lawrence being coached by Pederson, much less anywhere close to Watson.

That said, even with that possible roadmap, it wn't be easy under most reasonable expectations, even if our division has the worst QBs in the AFC.  Tennessee owns us until we prove otherwise, as Henry embarrasses us like no other RB has.  Houston isn't far behind, though at least on paper last year we had the better team.  We have had success against the Colts, but fron 1-53, they have the most talented roster in the division.

Bottom line, it's going to be an absolute fight for teams in the AFC to reach the playoffs because of all of the quality QBs.

You make some very good points. While i dont think we are playoff ready yet, this team did improve over those last few games with Bevell and i think we are better than our record says we are. The big thing we need to overcome is beating ourselves. When we make a mistake we get absolutely killed by it. A missed tackle goes all the way for a TD, a good drive killed by a dumb penalty, missing FG's that come back to haunt us. If we can get back to just playing clean football and making teams beat us with plays and out-executing us than that will make a huge difference.

Looking at the South, its up for grabs really. The T*tans have owned it the last few years but they threw it away against the Bengals being the #1 seed. Slowing Henry down and getting Tannehill to beat you with his arm is the formula to beat them. Yes Ryan is a step up from Wentz for the Colts and the running game really helped them last year. They have a solid D but they have a tough schedule. Houston look in full rebuild and like you say, they have plenty of draft picks but we should be ahead of them easily this year.

I think the first few weeks will he huge. If we can get some nicer matchups earlier to try and get some motivation and good feelings going then we could hit a run. I think we can beat most of our division rivals but like you say, theyve had our number the last few years and we need to prove we can beat them.

Im waiting for this team to step up and im really hopeful that Pederson is the guy to do that with thos team. We have plenty of the pieces and like the 2017 team, these guys are sick of losing and being the joke team.

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My reasonable expectations

1. Cut down on the errand throws

2. Show touch on the ball.  Every pass does not have to be a cannon shot.

3. Help his receivers.  Many forget how often receivers had to reach behind or stretch out for footballs last year.  Lots of cross patterns where receivers where reaching behind instead of in front comes to mind for example.

Trevor had more than a handful of WOW moments last year.  On the flip side, Trevor had many more Head scratching moments that one wants to see from a consensus number 1 pick.

The most basic Expectation from Trevor?  Consistency!

You spelled "horrendous" wrong. 

(also "errant")

Remember, this is an errant and horrendous throw by Trevor in jagLVP's eyes.
https://twitter.com/BillyM_91/status/147...5555007493

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Its a very good question Bullseye and one i think people need to think about. The AFC took a step up again this year and its going to be a real fight pretty much every week. 

For me, i know in recent years the formula has been get a rookie QB then spend big on cap everywhere else on the roster while you have the rookie QB contract and hope you build a championship team. We havent been able to do that as the roster we had when we got Lawrence wasa dumpster fire and then we had Meyer waste a year. The one thing Pederson said that i liked most was this year was about improving the roster and improving the players we have and i think thats the path for us. I know its not exciting and may take another year or two to show those results but we arent a good draft or FA signing away from making a deep run.

I very much like the additions we made in FA and think the draft picks will improve us and Pederson and his system and coaches will improve us so i think there are things to be excited about. I felt so sorry for Lawrence at times last year as the kid was trying so damn hard and everything around him was conspiring against him. This is a fresh start with a HC who was a QB and i think we see more of the real Trevor Lawrence this year.

If the D can start getting stops and scoring points and getting turnovers we may shock a few teams and it will be good experience playing stronger teams to see where the bar we have to reach is now.

I totally agree that the AFC as a whole has taken a huge step up from top to bottom over the past few years.  Most teams have their QBs of the present, and most of them are in their early primes.    Sadly, I can't recall who on the board made this astute observation (apologies to that individual), but he stated our way of making the playoffs is to win the division.  If Trevor Lawrence makes the improvement this year thanks in part to Pederson's coaching and better personnel, it's possible that the games against division opponents will represent the games most likely to feature the Jaguars with an edge at QB.  Though he has performed decently in their system with Henry running the ball, I don't think the tacks really trust Tannehill.  Worse for them, their offensive line can't seem to pass block worth anything.  Although the Colts just traded for Matt Ryan and he is still viewed favorably around the league, the Colts still need a LT to protect him and receivers to which to throw.  Furthermore, he is...what...36-37 years old and coming off one of the worst seasons in his career.  He may be an improvement over last years' performance by Wentz, he still does not represent their long term answer at QB, and in another year or so, they'll be looking for his replacement.  Davis Mills was a pleasant surprise for the Texans, and the Texans have a bunch of picks over the next three seasons in the aftermath of the Watson trade.  But few actually think he'll be better than Trevor Lawrence being coached by Pederson, much less anywhere close to Watson.

That said, even with that possible roadmap, it wn't be easy under most reasonable expectations, even if our division has the worst QBs in the AFC.  Tennessee owns us until we prove otherwise, as Henry embarrasses us like no other RB has.  Houston isn't far behind, though at least on paper last year we had the better team.  We have had success against the Colts, but fron 1-53, they have the most talented roster in the division.

Bottom line, it's going to be an absolute fight for teams in the AFC to reach the playoffs because of all of the quality QBs.

While I think you're right that winning the division is going to be needed to make the postseason, I also get the sneaky suspicion that the other divisions are equalizing themselves and may end up so competitive that 9-8 or 10-7 takes a division and leaves the rest on the outside looking in. Buffalo might be able to run away from at least the fish and the Jest, but NE should remain competitive; the entire AFCn and AFCw are stacked (okay, barring Pittsburgh but I still can't count them out until they actually start losing), and then there's the AFCs.

hopefully the tacks and tinhorns get the rug pulled out from under them, we seem to have more luck against the horseshoes.

I'm not expecting playoffs this year. But boy howdy would it be a welcomed surprise!

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