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Reasonable Expectations for Trevor Lawrence

(This post was last modified: 04-04-2022, 12:08 PM by Kane. Edited 1 time in total.)

(04-04-2022, 01:59 AM)Eric1 Wrote:
(04-04-2022, 12:01 AM)jaguarmvp Wrote: https://www.reddit.com/r/Jaguars/comment...urce=share

Literally blows your (and a few other's) dumb [BLEEP] "Lawrence is inaccurate, he has accuracy issues etc" takes out of the water. 

As well as all of your other awful Lawrence takes, but the majority already knew this. Will be fun to see how you spin and twist your awful takes going forward.

Mvp is notorious for talking out of both sides of his mouth and having one hot take and then later posting an article that totally refutes his stupid hot take. It's pretty impressive actually
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(04-04-2022, 02:23 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: Interesting stats considering while watching the jaguars games last year.. there were an abundance of bad throws. Wonder who made this stat.

Well it said the catchable ball rate was 83%, so that means basically 1/6 of his passes were off the mark. That sounds like a number that could fit into your recollection.

What you're failing to realize is that other QBs make bad throws too. Apparently most of them make bad throws a little more often than Trevor.
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(04-04-2022, 10:05 AM)Upper Wrote:
(04-04-2022, 02:23 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: Interesting stats considering while watching the jaguars games last year.. there were an abundance of bad throws. Wonder who made this stat.

Well it said the catchable ball rate was 83%, so that means basically 1/6 of his passes were off the mark. That sounds like a number that could fit into your recollection.

What you're failing to realize is that other QBs make bad throws too. Apparently most of them make bad throws a little more often than Trevor.
Big year coming.

4K passing. 30 TDs. Don't really care too much about the interceptions as long as it's below 20.
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(04-04-2022, 10:46 AM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(04-04-2022, 10:05 AM)Upper Wrote: Well it said the catchable ball rate was 83%, so that means basically 1/6 of his passes were off the mark. That sounds like a number that could fit into your recollection.

What you're failing to realize is that other QBs make bad throws too. Apparently most of them make bad throws a little more often than Trevor.
Big year coming.

4K passing. 30 TDs. Don't really care too much about the interceptions as long as it's below 20.

I don't see Trevor throwing for nearly that many TD's with this current group of WR's. Unless something major happens, I don't see where we are any better than last season at WR.
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ChrisJagBoyRegardless of whom we add in the draft, or who we've already added in free agency. If Trevor Lawrence has another 12 td 17 int type season, he isn't the guy. A scary thought, I know because regardless if that happens or not he will probably get at least a 3rd season to "prove it" just because of his draft position. I know a lot of people on this board think I hate Trevor or want him to fail and that's the furthest thing from the truth but I'm just being real.

My personal expectation, however is that we will see growth but I do not feel like he's going to blow anyone away because that's just not how I see him at this point in time. I think with what i'd assume to be a much more durable Offensive line and hopefully a more productive receiving core that Trevor will at the very least, improve his productivity.



(04-04-2022, 06:19 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(04-04-2022, 03:18 AM)Eric1 Wrote: It's the type of response you get when you claim that you have watched (and know) more Jags football than anybody here does. Just like how you assumed ESPN [BLEEP] or whatever you said above.

I've seen enough of your posts to know your opinion is about as good as a wet book of matches bud.

You probably still think Urban can be a good NFL HC huh LOLOLOLOL.

Who are you confusing me with? I wanted Urban fired the day we signed Tebow.

Seemed like you were still on team-Meyer after week one of the reg. season

https://www.duvalpride.com/showthread.ph...pid1402642

Also don't recall you calling out urbz for the Tebow acquisition

https://www.duvalpride.com/showthread.ph...pid1378959
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(04-04-2022, 09:10 AM)Kane Wrote:
(04-04-2022, 01:59 AM)Eric1 Wrote: Literally blows your (and a few other's) dumb [BLEEP] "Lawrence is inaccurate, he has accuracy issues etc" takes out of the water. 

As well as all of your other awful Lawrence takes, but the majority already knew this. Will be fun to see how you spin and twist your awful takes going forward.

Mvp is notorious for talking out of both sides of his mouth and having one hot take and then later posting an article that totally refutes his stupid hot take. It's pretty impressive actually

How has the dude not blocked himself by now??  We refute his takes and get called stupid and get blocked.  What makes himself so special?
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(This post was last modified: 04-04-2022, 02:51 PM by Cleatwood. Edited 1 time in total.)

(04-04-2022, 02:06 PM)scottyg Wrote:
(04-04-2022, 09:10 AM)Kane Wrote: Mvp is notorious for talking out of both sides of his mouth and having one hot take and then later posting an article that totally refutes his stupid hot take. It's pretty impressive actually

How has the dude not blocked himself by now??  We refute his takes and get called stupid and get blocked.  What makes himself so special?
He's blocked so many people that he will post a tweet that he saw, as if it's new information, but the tweet was posted days before.....
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(04-04-2022, 10:46 AM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(04-04-2022, 10:05 AM)Upper Wrote: Well it said the catchable ball rate was 83%, so that means basically 1/6 of his passes were off the mark. That sounds like a number that could fit into your recollection.

What you're failing to realize is that other QBs make bad throws too. Apparently most of them make bad throws a little more often than Trevor.
Big year coming.

4K passing. 30 TDs. Don't really care too much about the interceptions as long as it's below 20.

(04-04-2022, 12:00 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: ChrisJagBoyRegardless of whom we add in the draft, or who we've already added in free agency. If Trevor Lawrence has another 12 td 17 int type season, he isn't the guy. A scary thought, I know because regardless if that happens or not he will probably get at least a 3rd season to "prove it" just because of his draft position. I know a lot of people on this board think I hate Trevor or want him to fail and that's the furthest thing from the truth but I'm just being real.

My personal expectation, however is that we will see growth but I do not feel like he's going to blow anyone away because that's just not how I see him at this point in time. I think with what i'd assume to be a much more durable Offensive line and hopefully a more productive receiving core that Trevor will at the very least, improve his productivity.



(04-04-2022, 06:19 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: Who are you confusing me with? I wanted Urban fired the day we signed Tebow.

Seemed like you were still on team-Meyer after week one of the reg. season

https://www.duvalpride.com/showthread.ph...pid1402642

Also don't recall you calling out urbz for the Tebow acquisition

https://www.duvalpride.com/showthread.ph...pid1378959

So, I said that if we put up another bad performance i'd be worried about the coaching staff and you see this as support for Urban..

And I made a joke about Tim Tebow and you consider this me being in support of the signing?

Confusion face.
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I think we are going to see a huge jump this year. I’m hoping that this will be the most exciting Jaguars season since the 90s. Not because we’re going to the Super Bowl, but because I hope this is the season we finally have the nucleus of talent and coaching staff in place to project a long term, sustained future of winning.
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The best part about the stat on Lawrence shows that it is more about the lack of separation our receivers get than about the inaccuracy of Lawrence. He makes some bad throws like any other QB, but our receivers have just done a terrible job of getting separation and that led to more incompletions, pass breakups, and interceptions.

Lawrence wasn't the problem and anyone that watched the games instead of going off of stats new that. We are in a good place at QB.
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(04-04-2022, 11:24 PM)Charlie Sheen Wrote: The best part about the stat on Lawrence shows that it is more about the lack of separation our receivers get than about the inaccuracy of Lawrence. He makes some bad throws like any other QB, but our receivers have just done a terrible job of getting separation and that led to more incompletions, pass breakups, and interceptions.

Lawrence wasn't the problem and anyone that watched the games instead of going off of stats new that. We are in a good place at QB.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B0Dg8qKPLQ

okay tell me how many of these are the wrs fault. i'll tell you now, it's like 3 out of 17
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(04-04-2022, 11:24 PM)Charlie Sheen Wrote: The best part about the stat on Lawrence shows that it is more about the lack of separation our receivers get than about the inaccuracy of Lawrence. He makes some bad throws like any other QB, but our receivers have just done a terrible job of getting separation and that led to more incompletions, pass breakups, and interceptions.

Lawrence wasn't the problem and anyone that watched the games instead of going off of stats new that. We are in a good place at QB.

wait, I was told he was horrendous?

Big Grin
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(04-05-2022, 08:07 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(04-04-2022, 11:24 PM)Charlie Sheen Wrote: The best part about the stat on Lawrence shows that it is more about the lack of separation our receivers get than about the inaccuracy of Lawrence. He makes some bad throws like any other QB, but our receivers have just done a terrible job of getting separation and that led to more incompletions, pass breakups, and interceptions.

Lawrence wasn't the problem and anyone that watched the games instead of going off of stats new that. We are in a good place at QB.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B0Dg8qKPLQ

okay tell me how many of these are the wrs fault. i'll tell you now, it's like 3 out of 17


Context:


#1 - Taylor gives up pressure, Trevor rolls left and sails an overthrow
#2 - Trevor didn't see defender - 100% on him
#3 - Terrible throw late in a blow out loss - frustration showing
#4 - With Von Miller harassing him - makes a great throw to the TE but the defender makes a great play on at the ball 
#5 - Receiver makes no effort on contested catch, trips and falls, concedes to defender
#6 - dropped ball by receiver on contact
#7 - Idiotic Urban Meyer flea flicker call on wrong side of the field - TL should have thrown it away OB
#8 - Trevor forced one with a safety readily apparent - bad decision
#9 - Bad under throw 
#10 - Bad gamble throwing into coverage
#11 - deflected pass
#12 - Free blitzed forces a quick pass - LB dropping makes an outstanding play on ball
#13 - Rolling left from pressure - Trevor under throws Mickens who makes no attempt on the ball
#14 - Bad decision to force one to Treadwell 
#15 - Tipped ball on catchable pass
#16 - Good play by defender jumping route at the sticks - it happens 
#17 - Bad decision trying to make something happen when backed up to EZ 


I see 7 that are 100% on TL, 4 that are in no way his fault and, 6 more that have contributing factors beyond the rookie QB.

A rookie QB that was thrust into a scheme not designed to assist him, a roster not amended to aid him, and game plans sometimes seemingly designed to throw him to the wolves. 

The video of his INTs and your poor evaluation of it aside, nothing in your post refutes the 83.8% catchable ball rate. 

That catchable rate is a good sign that should make Jags fans feel better about what Trevor might do this year when surrounded by a more competent staff and a system designed to play to his strengths.
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(04-05-2022, 09:50 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(04-05-2022, 08:07 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B0Dg8qKPLQ

okay tell me how many of these are the wrs fault. i'll tell you now, it's like 3 out of 17


Context:


#1 - Taylor gives up pressure, Trevor rolls left and sails an overthrow
#2 - Trevor didn't see defender - 100% on him
#3 - Terrible throw late in a blow out loss - frustration showing
#4 - With Von Miller harassing him - makes a great throw to the TE but the defender makes a great play on at the ball 
#5 - Receiver makes no effort on contested catch, trips and falls, concedes to defender
#6 - dropped ball by receiver on contact
#7 - Idiotic Urban Meyer flea flicker call on wrong side of the field - TL should have thrown it away OB
#8 - Trevor forced one with a safety readily apparent - bad decision
#9 - Bad under throw 
#10 - Bad gamble throwing into coverage
#11 - deflected pass
#12 - Free blitzed forces a quick pass - LB dropping makes an outstanding play on ball
#13 - Rolling left from pressure - Trevor under throws Mickens who makes no attempt on the ball
#14 - Bad decision to force one to Treadwell 
#15 - Tipped ball on catchable pass
#16 - Good play by defender jumping route at the sticks - it happens 
#17 - Bad decision trying to make something happen when backed up to EZ 


I see 7 that are 100% on TL, 4 that are in no way his fault and, 6 more that have contributing factors beyond the rookie QB.

A rookie QB that was thrust into a scheme not designed to assist him, a roster not amended to aid him, and game plans sometimes seemingly designed to throw him to the wolves. 

The video of his INTs and your poor evaluation of it aside, nothing in your post refutes the 83.8% catchable ball rate. 

That catchable rate is a good sign that should make Jags fans feel better about what Trevor might do this year when surrounded by a more competent staff and a system designed to play to his strengths.

I appreciate that you took the time to review the throws, but Chris clearly isn't engaging in good faith discussion. That's why instead of addressing the content of what was said he's trying to reframe to something else that he thinks favors the bad faith point he doesn't want to concede is wrong without even acknowledging anyone else's point. You'll see it all the time on political TV channels, where no good faith discussion is taking place, too.

He discusses things like some of the old colts trolls that used to come around when they were on top.
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(This post was last modified: 04-05-2022, 01:24 PM by cland. Edited 1 time in total.)

In all fairness, I want to see where the '83.8 catchable rate' comes from--other than a reddit post.  I checked the referred to athletic post but's it's protected by a pay wall.  What I could read seems to be a little off... as it's using a proprietary QB metric (ie. they won't share where they got the numbers.)

My general rule of thumb is that any metric that shows your rookie QB outperforming GOAT Tom Brady and the Superbowl winning QB should probably be taken with a grain of salt.
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(04-05-2022, 01:22 PM)cland Wrote: In all fairness, I want to see where the '83.8 catchable rate' comes from--other than a reddit post.  I checked the referred to athletic post but's it's protected by a pay wall.  What I could read seems to be a little off... as it's using a proprietary QB metric (ie. they won't share where they got the numbers.)

My general rule of thumb is that any metric that shows your rookie QB outperforming GOAT Tom Brady and the Superbowl winning QB should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

Any proprietary metric should be taken with a grain of salt.

It's why we buffer PFF ratings around here pretty universally and this is no different. 

Regardless, it's a good sign that some person(s) at a well visited sporting website came to that conclusion on Lawrence. 
Even if you temper the number.
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I don’t get why some people are so dead set on trying to view the negative on Lawrence at this point. Did he have a great rookie season? No. Did I see a lot of promise? Yes. I think he will be our QB for the next decade. I would rather give him the time to develop and put a team around him than keep hitting reset at this important position.
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(This post was last modified: 04-05-2022, 04:07 PM by ChrisJagBoy.)

(04-05-2022, 01:28 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(04-05-2022, 01:22 PM)cland Wrote: In all fairness, I want to see where the '83.8 catchable rate' comes from--other than a reddit post.  I checked the referred to athletic post but's it's protected by a pay wall.  What I could read seems to be a little off... as it's using a proprietary QB metric (ie. they won't share where they got the numbers.)

My general rule of thumb is that any metric that shows your rookie QB outperforming GOAT Tom Brady and the Superbowl winning QB should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

Any proprietary metric should be taken with a grain of salt.

It's why we buffer PFF ratings around here pretty universally and this is no different. 

Regardless, it's a good sign that some person(s) at a well visited sporting website came to that conclusion on Lawrence. 
Even if you temper the number.

Exactly. Stafford had 601 passing attempts, 400+ completions. Trevor had 602 passing attempts with around 300 completions. 

In no world, did one guy throw more catchable passes and have 100 less completions on the same amount of attempts. Unless you want to tell me we had nearly 100 drops.


The "catchable pass" stat is bogus in this regard and anyone with eyes knows it. And for the other guy I'm talking to who claimed that only 7 of those ints were on Trevor is blind. I'm not biased against Trevor, but you are biased for him.

(04-05-2022, 03:38 PM)Newton Wrote: I don’t get why some people are so dead set on trying to view the negative on Lawrence at this point. Did he have a great rookie season? No. Did I see a lot of promise? Yes. I think he will be our QB for the next decade. I would rather give him the time to develop and put a team around him than keep hitting reset at this important position.

There would be no argument from me, if people just accepted the truth. He looked terrible. Not bad, terrible. I'm not saying he wont turn it around, but I am over the biased opinions on this board. If Trevor went to the Jets, and played this way. Everyone on this board would be like "well guess we didn't miss out on anything" The same way most people on this board think Zach Wilson is terrible even tho him and Trevor had pretty similar years.
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I watched that team last year. I have no issue believing that we had 100 drops.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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