(03-20-2022, 01:36 PM)Bullseye Wrote:

(03-20-2022, 07:42 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: If the receivers stop dropping the ball and get open more often, and
If our defense keeps us in games so the other team can't just rush the passer at will because we have to abandon the run, and
If our defense can get more turnovers,

then Trevor should have 20 TDs and 10 INTs without any improvement at all.  Same guy as last year, with a better team around him, I'm saying, 20TDs and 10 INTs. 

But, if we get all of that, plus Trevor takes the next step as a lot of players do in year 2 of their career, then I could see 27 TDs and 10 INTs.

(Emphasis added)

Assuming his numbers fall within the range you listed above (the first set of non individual improvement and the ones in bold), where do you think that would rank him among AFC QBs. assuming they all produce at a comparable level to last year (or the year before for Watson)?

Would fans be happy with that degree of improvement?

To aid in the analysis, I will list the QBs and their 2021 season statistics.

Patrick Mahomes 66.3% 4830 yards 37 TDs 13 INTs
Russell Wilson 64.8 %, 3112 yards 25 TDs 6 INTs (14 games)
Justin Herbert  65.9 %  5014 yards 38 TDs 15 INTs
Derek Carr 68.4% 4804 yards 23 TDs 14 INTs
Josh Allen  66.3% 4407 yds 36 TDs 15 INTs
Joe Burrow 70.4 % 4611 yards 34 TDs 14 INTs (16 games)
Lamar Jackson 64.4 % 2882 yards 16 TDs 13 INTs (12 games)
Deshaun Watson 70.2%, 4823 yards 33 TDs 7 INTs (2020 totals)
Ryan Tannehill 67.2%, 3734 yards, 21 TDs 14 INTs
Davis Mills 66.8% 2664 yards 16 TDs 10 INTs (13 games 9 starts)
Mac Jones 67.6%, 3801 yards, 22 TDs 13 INTs
Tua Tagoavailoa 67.8% 2653 yards 16 TDs 10 INTs (13 games)
Zach Wilson 55.6% 2334 9 TDs 11 INTs (13 games)
Mitch Trubisky 67% 2055 yardsm 16 TDs, 8 Ints (numbers from 2020, 10 starts)

I did not list a QB for the Colts because we don't know who their QB will be this year.  TBH, neither do they!

So given whatever numbers you (plural) expect TL to put up next year, where do you think that would rank him among AFC QBs?

Would those numbers and that subsequent ranking be enough to avoid disappointment in his performance?  Given the strength of the QB position in the conference, how reasonable are the expectations for him to go to the top?

I know a lot of people rated him as the best QB prospect to come along in a very long time, but he doesn't have to justify that expectation for me to be happy with him.  

If you want me to prognosticate, then I would expect he will end the season ranked (in my mind) about #5 to #8 in the AFC maybe.  I would be very happy with that in year 2.  

I would put him behind Mahomes, Wilson, Herbert, Burrow, and Josh Allen in year 2.  But those are all elite QBs.  So it's no knock on Trevor if he is behind those guys in his second season.  So much depends on the team around him.

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