(03-20-2022, 02:39 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: I think the Jaguars have done a lot to upgrade the team that will help Lawrence.  I'm hoping better coaching helps with our existing players.  Agnew is a converted defensive back.  Shenault has only been in the league two years.  I also think Marvin Jones will do better if we have a deep threat on the field.  His production dropped after we lost Chark.  In regard to Chark, yes we lost him, but he only played 3 full games last year so not a major impact.  While I think they were over-paid, I do think Kirk and Jones improves our wide receiver group.  I would be shocked if we didn't use a day two draft pick at the position as well.  They will probably use their #33 overall pick and wouldn't surprise me if they traded up into the first round to get a quality receiver.  

At tight end, we added Evan Engram.  Having Dan Arnold for a full season will help.  He played in less than half of our games due to being a mid-season acquisition and then finishing the year injured.  It also wouldn't surprise me if we used a day two draft pick on another tight end.  

At running back, I'm hoping that ETN is healthy which would be another receiving weapon that didn't exist last year.

Our offensive line is better.  I think Walker Little will upgrade a starting tackle spot.  Cam Robinson returns so we are no worse off at the other tackle spot.  We upgraded one guard sport with a pro-bowler.  With Bartch returning, we are no worse at the other guard spot, and he could improve.  He was a small school player that was considered a project.  I could also easily see him getting competition from a draft pick.  Guards tend to fall in the draft.   As of writing this, Linder also returns.  That would be a loss if he is cut, but Shatley isn't bad and played roughly half of last season anyway.  I also would find it likely that we draft a center if Linder is cut.  Centers tend to fall in the draft and might upgrade Shatley.  The bottom line is I think our offensive line overall will be better.

I am also one who thinks defense interconnects with offense.  Our defense will be improved which will give Lawrence better field position and more opportunities to make touchdowns.  Also by not being down so many points early in the game, we can have a more balanced offense.  The other team not knowing if we are going to run or pass will make life much easier on Lawrence.  

The question is where will he rank?  It's hard to predict.  I agree that there are a lot of good quarterbacks in the conference.  I think middle of the pack is reasonable.  I'll say eighth.

I agree with you generally that the talent level has increased.  However, I do wonder if it has/will be increased enough to enable Trevor Lawrence to maximize his skills and production.  I sill don't trust Baalke to be able to identufy a WR in the draft, though I am hoping Pederson's influence can offset that.  Without question Scherff improves the RG spot.  I'd like to see the Jaguars draft another G in the mid rounds.  I'd also like to see the Jaguars draft another WR relatively early.  While I think Kirk improves  th speed of our WR group, I'm not sure how successful he cn be in our system without a Hopkins and Green and Moore taking attention away from him.  I'm not sure he can function outside.  I am confident that Engram will improve our TE room, and I expect the team to draft another TE.  Though Agnew was a big play threat last year, I think his receiving skill is somewhat dubious and he should not be relied upon to be a big contributor, even assuming he is completely recovered.

Given the overall level of QB play in the AFC, middle of the pack would represent good improvement

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(03-20-2022, 02:52 PM)The Real Marty Wrote:

(03-20-2022, 01:36 PM)Bullseye Wrote: (Emphasis added)

Assuming his numbers fall within the range you listed above (the first set of non individual improvement and the ones in bold), where do you think that would rank him among AFC QBs. assuming they all produce at a comparable level to last year (or the year before for Watson)?

Would fans be happy with that degree of improvement?

To aid in the analysis, I will list the QBs and their 2021 season statistics.

Patrick Mahomes 66.3% 4830 yards 37 TDs 13 INTs
Russell Wilson 64.8 %, 3112 yards 25 TDs 6 INTs (14 games)
Justin Herbert  65.9 %  5014 yards 38 TDs 15 INTs
Derek Carr 68.4% 4804 yards 23 TDs 14 INTs
Josh Allen  66.3% 4407 yds 36 TDs 15 INTs
Joe Burrow 70.4 % 4611 yards 34 TDs 14 INTs (16 games)
Lamar Jackson 64.4 % 2882 yards 16 TDs 13 INTs (12 games)
Deshaun Watson 70.2%, 4823 yards 33 TDs 7 INTs (2020 totals)
Ryan Tannehill 67.2%, 3734 yards, 21 TDs 14 INTs
Davis Mills 66.8% 2664 yards 16 TDs 10 INTs (13 games 9 starts)
Mac Jones 67.6%, 3801 yards, 22 TDs 13 INTs
Tua Tagoavailoa 67.8% 2653 yards 16 TDs 10 INTs (13 games)
Zach Wilson 55.6% 2334 9 TDs 11 INTs (13 games)
Mitch Trubisky 67% 2055 yardsm 16 TDs, 8 Ints (numbers from 2020, 10 starts)

I did not list a QB for the Colts because we don't know who their QB will be this year.  TBH, neither do they!

So given whatever numbers you (plural) expect TL to put up next year, where do you think that would rank him among AFC QBs?

Would those numbers and that subsequent ranking be enough to avoid disappointment in his performance?  Given the strength of the QB position in the conference, how reasonable are the expectations for him to go to the top?

I know a lot of people rated him as the best QB prospect to come along in a very long time, but he doesn't have to justify that expectation for me to be happy with him.  

If you want me to prognosticate, then I would expect he will end the season ranked (in my mind) about #5 to #8 in the AFC maybe.  I would be very happy with that in year 2.  

I would put him behind Mahomes, Wilson, Herbert, Burrow, and Josh Allen in year 2.  But those are all elite QBs.  So it's no knock on Trevor if he is behind those guys in his second season.  So much depends on the team around him.

Agreed completely with this.

If all goes well, he should be somewhere in the middle of the pack in this group of outstanding QBs.  I just wonder if Baalke is up to the task of finding him enough receiving help to elevate his play.

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