(03-20-2022, 04:21 AM)Bullseye Wrote: The one thing that kept our fan base going throughout the miserable 2020 season is the idea that we could finally land our franchise QB when all was said and done.  Sure enough, when the Jets pulled off the late season upsets of the Rams and Browns, Jaguars fans suddenly were buoyed with hope.  The guy most pundits were saying was the best QB prospect to come out since Andrew Luck, and drew comparisons to John Elway was ours. 

However, he didn't show the progress we hoped to see in his rookie year due to a myriad of factors, most notably the disastrous coaching of Urban Meyer and the free agency neglect of Trent Baalke.

There have been some promising changes in thus far in 2022.  The era of Urban Blight is over, and replaced by offensive minded Doug Pederson-a proven NFL veteran coach who won the Super Bowl with the Eagles.  While Jaguars fans were disappointed that Baalke was not fired, and further disappointed by the lack of an EVP installed over him, Jaguars fans wound up pleasantly surprised to see the free agency expenditures during this free agency period, which featured Pro Bowl G Brandon Scherff, an actual receiving threat at TE in Evan Engram, and a slot receiver who can separate in Christian Kirk.

However, things have changed elsewhere in the AFC as well.  Recent highly drafted QBs like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert have surpassed most of the expectations their fans had for them.  Denver traded for Russell Wilson, who has made two Super Bowls and is one of the best QBs in the game.  Deshaun Watson was considered among the best QBs in the game until last year, when his refusal to play for the Texans combined with off field allegations to lead to him not playing at all.  Once it was determined the Grand jury in Houston would not indict him on those allegations, it opened the door to trade him.  While it was thought in some circles the Texans would not trade him to a team in the AFC, it turns out Cleveland won the Watson sweepstakes after winnign Amari Cooper in a separate trade.  What's more, the Raiders wound up trading for WR Devante Adams, who has been the best WR in the game over the past few years.

As a result, the AFC QBs are very strong with some of their receiving targets.

Patrick Mahomes will throw to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce
Russell Wilson will throw to Jerry Jeudy and Cortland Sutton
Justin Herbert has Keenan Allen and Mike Williams
Derek Carr has Devante Adams and Mike Waller
Lamar Jackson-Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown
Deshaun Watson has Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples Jones
Joe Burrow-has Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd
Josh Allen has Stefan Diggs and Gabriel Davis
Mac Jones-Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith
Tua Tagoavila-Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki
Mitch Trubisky-Dionte Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth
Ryan Tannehill has AJ Brown and Robert Woods
Zach Wilson has CJ Uzomah, Corey Davis and Moore
Davis Mills
with former top overall pick Baker Mayfield supposedly pushing for a trade to the Colts, who will have Michael Pittman and Mo Alie Cox

Given all of the changes outlined above, what are the reasonable expectations for Trevor Lawrence in year two?  More specifically. where do you think Lawrence will rank among these QBs by the end of the 2022 season?  What is the basis for your belief?

I maintain that even if the Jaguars nail this draft, and Pederson gives Lawrence the coaching he should have gotten his rookie year, Lawrence could make significant progress and still be middle of the pack of AFC QBs at best.  I think under those circumstances, some people would still argue that he is a best, and I think that would be unreasonable.

Without knowing who the Jaguars will draft and what impact they will have, it's impossible to know how it'll play out, but as it stands now, as promising as this free agency period has been, can any of us say our receiving corps is at least in the middle of the AFC pack?

As always your thoughts are welcome.

My expectations for Lawrence are pretty simple in year two. Cut back the turnovers. Improved accuracy in the short to mid range game. More usage of his legs and mobility. Faster decisions with the football release wise. 

I think with Pederson all of those things can and will be accomplished this year. Despite all of the talent at the QB position in the AFC. There's 16 teams in total. I expect him to finish as a top 8 - 10 QB overall in the AFC between his passing yardage, completion percentage, TD:INT ratio and mobility. 

I fully expect him to finish as a top 8 - 10 QB. That's just how I feel. He was touted as this other worldly talent at the position that had not been seen since Andrew Luck, John Elway, etc. So, I expect to see that aspect of his potential and game begin to bubble up to the surface this year. 

Receiving corps wise in the AFC I still think it's right around the middle of the pack. At least on paper. Again, though, my concern is not really on that as much as some of the other fans on here. Pederson runs a TE centric passing game. If you go back and look at his five year stint in Philadelphia you will be hard pressed trying to find any of his receivers leading the pack above a TE. 

This is why I think guys like Arnold and Engram are in for a heavy dose of targets early and often in 2022. This is also why I think it's going to be absolutely crucial that they ultimately walk out of next month's draft with either McBride, Woods, Dulcich, Wydermyer or Likely. I think they need to get a TE in there early to start grooming in the event Arnold and/or Engram does not pan out or gets hurt and they have a young guy with potential ready to rock and roll. 

I actually like Lawrence's skillset with Pederson's RPO. I think a lot of what he did at Clemson is going to translate very well into what Pederson wants to do. I think Kirk, Jones and Jones along with Shenault and Agnew offer just enough at the moment at the WR position to get the job done. The RB by committee approach is going to be awesome this year when Etienne and Robinson are fully up to speed and cleared. 

And, again, still have 12 draft picks to get onto the roster (maybe less if Baalke works the trade game). 

My expectations are high. I am excited.

---