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Cap space for next season…

#61

(01-22-2023, 02:33 AM)StrayaJag Wrote: How the hell r people wanting to cut agnew

It's not a question of wanting to cut him. He is a very good return man, but some good players will have to go. Agnew caught 23 passes in the regular season and can easily be replaced as the team's number 4 or 5 receiver. If the $4 million in savings allows them to keep Robertson-Harris or Jenkins, it seems like a no-brainer to me.
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#62
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2023, 03:43 AM by Eric1. Edited 3 times in total.)

(01-22-2023, 03:26 AM)jaglou53 Wrote:
(01-22-2023, 02:33 AM)StrayaJag Wrote: How the hell r people wanting to cut agnew

It's not a question of wanting to cut him. He is a very good return man, but some good players will have to go. Agnew caught 23 passes in the regular season and can easily be replaced as the team's number 4 or 5 receiver. If the $4 million in savings allows them to keep Robertson-Harris or Jenkins, it seems like a no-brainer to me.

So $4m is more valuable than 1000+ all purpose yards?

The team can easily create $4m by converting somebody's cash to a signing bonus to keep RRH, and/or Jenkins. Khan has deep pockets. No reason to get rid of Agnew over a measly $4m. He's more important to the team than that.
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#63
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2023, 09:18 AM by cat bells. Edited 1 time in total.)

One of the things i find about being slightly detached from the team and especially the draft is it gives you a different perspective on cap/draft ... Sometimes that's helpful, you get less attached to your own ideas or feelings on players and can collate other opinions (you wouldn't believe how often this is successful especially in the first two rounds of the drafts) ... And at other times of course it's a massive hindrance due to a simple lack of knowledge on cap limits and later round prospects. I'll try and stay out of the more technical debates, others are better equipped, but one or two sketchy thoughts, and apologies early if this has already been covered and for the length of this post.

One area which might start playing into Baalkes decision making as we (hopefully) transition into a successful team is the compensatory draft formula. I'll not pretend to know the exact formula, (in fact it seems sketchy at best depending on which source you read... Here's a link to the nfls official version for anyone who's interested (grain of salt with that))


https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-compensator...ed-to-know


Most other sites seem to think it's simply a bunch of fellas slinging out picks based on who they like. From what I can gather the only hard and fast rules seen to be if you lose a decent O-lineman your likely to get a decent pick and Bill Belichick could trade his dog, his cat, an out of date can of beans and swap his pool cleaner and still receive two thirds and a fourth! However, as a better record is likely to start meaning were losing a better calibre of player in FA with a bit of luck we'll start picking up those extra picks. I'm sure Baalke will start playing that as it seems to have been an area other teams have been successful in targeting in recent years. And worth noting this year if we are likely to lose a starting tackle and one or two decent contributors to better contract offers. 

For what it's worth in terms of individual players I'd mirror a lot of what seems to be board consensus, (and therefore stands a decent chance of being good common sense)

Griffin just hadn't worked out and there's a reasonable possibility we lose Key or Smoot or both due to simple finances despite most wanting them back. Just gonna have to take our lumps on that. Similarly itits lkely to come down to Jenkins or RRH ... Interesting call because they both seem like leaders within the locker room, well liked, decent players, but with flaws, the general consensus which i'd agree with is, lean towards RRH if it comes down to a straight decision.

Agnew you can cut and save 4m ... But again he's liked in the locker room, sets high standards for himself, is largely reliable, dependable and productive... Is the 4m worth what he brings to the table, and on a basic level can you replace him for less than that because it does boil down to getting better players. Personally I hate that bet. I'd need a better reason for cutting him.
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#64

Sheesh this is going to be a rare off-season for us… so many decisions with what to do with good team first and in some cases important guys…

Looks like we are going to have to part with some fan friendly players but no Idea who..

Wish I had a clue how the cap worked and how we plan to overcome it… but guess in the mean time I’ll have to sit back and read all the opinions and hope like hell we get it right and don’t waste any of Trevor’s upcoming prime years which is coming our way very very fast…


The best thing we have going for us is a QB who is about to be in the same system with same playcaller (who happens to be a very good one) for the second year in a row. He will be in the mvp conversation next year if we don’t screw it up.
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#65

Agnew is the easiest and most likely to extend. His number isn't prohibitive if we go out a couple more years.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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#66
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2023, 09:15 AM by Caldrac.)

Cutting Agnew is the dumbest take I have seen on here so far. He's cap friendly compared to what he brings to the team overall. He turned it up late down the stretch and kept us alive on returns alone.

There was a [BLEEP] ton of near misses with him offensively on schemed plays and with another year of working on that he'll more than likely turn those near misses into game changing plays.

You keep him.

The easiest cut for me is Griffin. Followed by Chaisson. The most difficult cut for me is Roy Robertson-Harris. Jenkins is 50/50 for me. We're also losing Key and Smoot.

What really bothers me is that. We all get swept up by the emotions of the game as fans and it's understandable.

However. You have to look at what the team did overall as a unit throughout a 17 game time span. Some of these guys that played late season heroics were playing early season villians and getting caught out of position.

The team has to make a firm decision on either:

A. Fully committing to building around Lawrence with Pederson calling the offense.

Or

B. Continuing the cyclical hell of backfilling the same positions with premium selections.

I shouldn't need to draft an edge rusher early when I just drafted Walker last year and have Allen playing on his 5th year.

I shouldn't need to draft a cornerback early to play outside when I have Campbell and Williams and nickel cover guys can be found later in the draft.

I shouldn't need to draft an offensive tackle high when I have Walker Little on his 2nd RD contract still and Cam Robinson tied up heavily at LT.

We have a completely gutted TE room to address in March. We have concerns on the interior offensive line. We have a decent amount of picks in RD4 to backfill some of these positions at nickel CB, DT and S.

This, again, is where Baalke really has to earn his paycheck. But, again, if they continue to ignore adding around Lawrence? We'll just keep barely getting over .500, finishing low seeding wise and having to travel to places like Kansas City, Buffalo, etc.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."
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#67

(01-22-2023, 09:15 AM)Caldrac Wrote: What really bothers me is that. We all get swept up by the emotions of the game as fans and it's understandable.

However. You have to look at what the team did overall as a unit throughout a 17 game time span. Some of these guys that played late season heroics were playing early season villians and getting caught out of position.

Yeah, this mirrors a lot of my own thoughts ... Within the 'jaguar bubble' it was an excellent season, exciting, in contention, some great moments, very admirable coaching staff and players and achieved a degree of success which has been missing for a long time ... All factually accurate

But on the other side of the coin of you take yourself out of the 'jag bubble' and place yourself into the national context ... We were a good hard fighting team albeit with a few flaws, won some big games, were slightly fortunate to make the playoffs and were put away competently by the chiefs...

To take the next steps we have to be able to be able to see the bigger picture and take those decisions in that context ... 

For that reason id also agree this is a big off-season for Baalke ... Get the decisions in FA right and find a couple of good starters in the draft and he can ensure this team is going to have a multi year run ... I view us as very much a year or two behind the bills and bengals but on a similar trajectory! The aim has to be to keep consolidating and improving like those two franchises have over the course of 2/3 years.
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#68

(01-22-2023, 09:15 AM)Caldrac Wrote: Cutting Agnew is the dumbest take I have seen on here so far. He's cap friendly compared to what he brings to the team overall. He turned it up late down the stretch and kept us alive on returns alone.

There was a [BLEEP] ton of near misses with him offensively on schemed plays and with another year of working on that he'll more than likely turn those near misses into game changing plays.

You keep him.

The easiest cut for me is Griffin. Followed by Chaisson. The most difficult cut for me is Roy Robertson-Harris. Jenkins is 50/50 for me. We're also losing Key and Smoot.

What really bothers me is that. We all get swept up by the emotions of the game as fans and it's understandable.

However. You have to look at what the team did overall as a unit throughout a 17 game time span. Some of these guys that played late season heroics were playing early season villians and getting caught out of position.

The team has to make a firm decision on either:

A. Fully committing to building around Lawrence with Pederson calling the offense.

Or

B. Continuing the cyclical hell of backfilling the same positions with premium selections.

I shouldn't need to draft an edge rusher early when I just drafted Walker last year and have Allen playing on his 5th year.

I shouldn't need to draft a cornerback early to play outside when I have Campbell and Williams and nickel cover guys can be found later in the draft.

I shouldn't need to draft an offensive tackle high when I have Walker Little on his 2nd RD contract still and Cam Robinson tied up heavily at LT.

We have a completely gutted TE room to address in March. We have concerns on the interior offensive line. We have a decent amount of picks in RD4 to backfill some of these positions at nickel CB, DT and S.

This, again, is where Baalke really has to earn his paycheck. But, again, if they continue to ignore adding around Lawrence? We'll just keep barely getting over .500, finishing low seeding wise and having to travel to places like Kansas City, Buffalo, etc.

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What?  Continue to ignore adding around Lawrence?  I dont see how youncan say that.  

   This past year they signed Kirk, Zay, Engram, traded for Ridley, drafted a center, and signed a All Pro guard .  The year before the brought in Etienne by taking him with their other first, brought in MJJ, and drafted a highly touted LT.  


  All of these moves over the last 2 years was a big part of why we went to the divisional round in the playoffs.  Baalke has pretty much overhauled the whole offense in 2 years.  He needs to beef up the oline a little more this offseason
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#69

(01-21-2023, 11:36 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: I think they do the following:

  • Cut Griffin.
  • Cut either RRH or Jenkins and replace in the draft.
  • Extend Josh Allen with a large signing bonus but lowering the cap hit in 2023.
  • Restructure some other contracts as needed.
  • Let Jawaan Taylor walk in free agency and receive a comp draft pick in 2024.
  • Sign Engram to a multi-year contract with a large signing bonus but a fairly low cap hit in 2023.
  • Try to sign Key, if possible, and as many of the Jags other free agents as the cap allows.
  • Sign minimal free agents from other teams.  Maybe a couple of role players or depth but no major signings.
  • Use the draft to upgrade the roster.

Agree with most of this.  Griffin is obvious. Saves us around $13M in cap hit.  I could see Chaisson being a cap hit as well.  Hate to give up on a guy with untapped talent but he saves us around $3M.  Would be surprised if they don't restructure Christian Kirk's deal (unless there is some rule around his contract I dont understand).  But he has a huge base salary that I'm assuming would be allowed to be converted to a bonus and then spread over the next three years.  I think they save near $10M on this years cap.  And I would say it's a near guarantee he'll be here in 2023 and 2024.  And if something happened where we decided to let him go after the 2024 season with one year left on his deal, we'd still get a ton of cap savings that offseason if we did it.  Again unless there is something I dont understand about his specific contract, he seems like an obvious candidate to have a contract restructuring.  I also think the same is true of Cam Robinson's deal.  Not quite as much as Kirk but if my math is right I think they can get over $7M of savings by doing the same.  You do those 4 things I just mentioned and you've saved near $35M right there.  I think you could also adjust Olukon and Fatukasi.  We have a ton of room in 2024 so we can afford to move cap there.  And it gets even bigger if we cut Scherrf after the 2023 season.  He is a HUGE cap savings after 2023.  

I do think they try to do everything they can to bring back Engram.  And I also think they'll try to extend Josh Allen which will bring some additional savings.

Not sure about Taylor.  Arguably our best offensive lineman this year.  But is he a one year wonder?  Was he just playing for a contract?  With Walker Little showing he can be better at LT than RT, if Cam can hold up on the right side, I'd feel pretty solid about without Taylor.  Big risk though is now depth is a major concern.  Would have to find a cheap vet free agent or address it somewhere high in the draft.

One difference is I'm not sure RRH and Jenkins can't both be back.  Looks like Jenkins' deal could be adjusted to move a little more of the cap into next year.  And we may not need to touch RRH's deal or extend him.


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#70

(01-22-2023, 09:36 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(01-22-2023, 09:15 AM)Caldrac Wrote: Cutting Agnew is the dumbest take I have seen on here so far. He's cap friendly compared to what he brings to the team overall. He turned it up late down the stretch and kept us alive on returns alone.

There was a [BLEEP] ton of near misses with him offensively on schemed plays and with another year of working on that he'll more than likely turn those near misses into game changing plays.

You keep him.

The easiest cut for me is Griffin. Followed by Chaisson. The most difficult cut for me is Roy Robertson-Harris. Jenkins is 50/50 for me. We're also losing Key and Smoot.

What really bothers me is that. We all get swept up by the emotions of the game as fans and it's understandable.

However. You have to look at what the team did overall as a unit throughout a 17 game time span. Some of these guys that played late season heroics were playing early season villians and getting caught out of position.

The team has to make a firm decision on either:

A. Fully committing to building around Lawrence with Pederson calling the offense.

Or

B. Continuing the cyclical hell of backfilling the same positions with premium selections.

I shouldn't need to draft an edge rusher early when I just drafted Walker last year and have Allen playing on his 5th year.

I shouldn't need to draft a cornerback early to play outside when I have Campbell and Williams and nickel cover guys can be found later in the draft.

I shouldn't need to draft an offensive tackle high when I have Walker Little on his 2nd RD contract still and Cam Robinson tied up heavily at LT.

We have a completely gutted TE room to address in March. We have concerns on the interior offensive line. We have a decent amount of picks in RD4 to backfill some of these positions at nickel CB, DT and S.

This, again, is where Baalke really has to earn his paycheck. But, again, if they continue to ignore adding around Lawrence? We'll just keep barely getting over .500, finishing low seeding wise and having to travel to places like Kansas City, Buffalo, etc.

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What?  Continue to ignore adding around Lawrence?  I dont see how youncan say that.  

   This past year they signed Kirk, Zay, Engram, traded for Ridley, drafted a center, and signed a All Pro guard .  The year before the brought in Etienne by taking him with their other first, brought in MJJ, and drafted a highly touted LT.  


  All of these moves over the last 2 years was a big part of why we went to the divisional round in the playoffs.  Baalke has pretty much overhauled the whole offense in 2 years.  He needs to beef up the oline a little more this offseason
Annnnd yet we still lead the NFL in dropped passes annnnnd we still have one of the worst, if not, THE worst win% rate in pass protection which is masked by play calling and Lawrence's stupid high release rate and our run blocking is masked by Etienne's abilities as a pure runner.

Taylor is walking. Scherff is a stop gap, an inconsistent stop gap at that. Fortner has A LOT of work to do. Left Guard is a revolving door. Left Tackle is anchored down by an oft injured Cam Robinson.

The TE room is gutted. The WR group STILL lacks a tall, physical 50/50 ball winner on the outside and we're probably losing Marvin Jones due to age and we're really putting all our eggs in one basket with Ridley?

No. No. No. If this team drafts heavily on defense again early my head is going to [BLEEP] explode after they dropped picks 1 ane 27 on defense last year in April and spent record breaking amounts of cap space last year on Oluokon, Fatukasi & Williams.

Look at the Bills, Bengals and Chiefs man. What do they have on offense that we lack right now? Shouldn't take too long to figure that one out.....

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."
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#71

(01-22-2023, 09:47 AM)Caldrac Wrote:
(01-22-2023, 09:36 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: What?  Continue to ignore adding around Lawrence?  I dont see how youncan say that.  

   This past year they signed Kirk, Zay, Engram, traded for Ridley, drafted a center, and signed a All Pro guard .  The year before the brought in Etienne by taking him with their other first, brought in MJJ, and drafted a highly touted LT.  


  All of these moves over the last 2 years was a big part of why we went to the divisional round in the playoffs.  Baalke has pretty much overhauled the whole offense in 2 years.  He needs to beef up the oline a little more this offseason
Annnnd yet we still lead the NFL in dropped passes annnnnd we still have one of the worst, if not, THE worst win% rate in pass protection which is masked by play calling and Lawrence's stupid high release rate and our run blocking is masked by Etienne's abilities as a pure runner.

Taylor is walking. Scherff is a stop gap, an inconsistent stop gap at that. Fortner has A LOT of work to do. Left Guard is a revolving door. Left Tackle is anchored down by an oft injured Cam Robinson.

The TE room is gutted. The WR group STILL lacks a tall, physical 50/50 ball winner on the outside and we're probably losing Marvin Jones due to age and we're really putting all our eggs in one basket with Ridley?

No. No. No. If this team drafts heavily on defense again early my head is going to [BLEEP] explode after they dropped picks 1 ane 27 on defense last year in April and spent record breaking amounts of cap space last year on Oluokon, Fatukasi & Williams.

Look at the Bills, Bengals and Chiefs man. What do they have on offense that we lack right now? Shouldn't take too long to figure that one out.....

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Regardless they havent ignored the offense  They have dropped just as much or more into the offense than they have they defense, that's where a lot of the record breaking FA went too.   The offense was higher ranked than the defense.  They need to continue to draft BPA and keep adding to both sides of the ball and not ignore one.  We still have big needs on both sides of the ball we need to hit on to be SB contenders.  I really like our WR group going into next year, it's a strength imo.  Need to beef up the interior oline and dlines, that is where we lost yesterday in the trenches.
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#72

Yea I dont get the argument that they haven't added resources to help Trevor. Obviously we spent a ton of money on receiving help last offseason. Marvin Jones was our leading receiver in 2021 and finished 2022 a distant 4th. Spent a ton on Scherff. Drafted a Fortner in 3rd round. And with Etienne coming back from injury, outside of Cam/Jawaan, it felt like an entirely new offense. Rome isn't built in a day of course and the team will need to do more to help solidify the offense. But that is a challenge all teams deal with. Every team deals with turnover, it's just a matter of well you draft/develop and then cherry pick free agents where needed. We're in a much better spot today than we were this time last year. That is what progress is supposed to look like. Hopefully this time next year we'll be in a better spot than we are now. Hopefully we hit on a few draft picks, Fortner and LIttle develop, etc....


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#73

You're both right.
We should not be drafting defense next year.
Also.
They've already invested a lot in offense.
Kirk and Z Jones both played up to their contracts.
If Sherff and Fortner both played up to theirs, we probably win against KC.
But no team goes 100% on their off-season acquisitions.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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#75

(01-22-2023, 12:36 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: https://twitter.com/e_dilla/status/16171...1_RPEXXpEQ


I'm going back and forth on resigning Taylor
Little at LT and Cam at RT

Paying Cam too much to be a swing, and Walker has to start playing and developing 
Tough decision
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#76

(01-22-2023, 12:44 PM)jagshype Wrote:
(01-22-2023, 12:36 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: https://twitter.com/e_dilla/status/16171...1_RPEXXpEQ


I'm going back and forth on resigning Taylor
Little at LT and Cam at RT

Paying Cam too much to be a swing, and Walker has to start playing and developing 
Tough decision
Yea. I think what they do at the tackle spot is one of the biggest off season storylines.

1. Is Ridley the same player as he was pre-suspension?
2. What do they do with the tackle spot?
3. Can Lloyd step it up and not be a liability?
4. Will they resign Key and Engram?
5. Walker stepping up

These (off the top of my head) are the biggest off season things to watch.
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#77

(01-22-2023, 03:37 AM)Eric1 Wrote:
(01-22-2023, 03:26 AM)jaglou53 Wrote: It's not a question of wanting to cut him. He is a very good return man, but some good players will have to go. Agnew caught 23 passes in the regular season and can easily be replaced as the team's number 4 or 5 receiver. If the $4 million in savings allows them to keep Robertson-Harris or Jenkins, it seems like a no-brainer to me.

So $4m is more valuable than 1000+ all purpose yards?

The team can easily create $4m by converting somebody's cash to a signing bonus to keep RRH, and/or Jenkins. Khan has deep pockets. No reason to get rid of Agnew over a measly $4m. He's more important to the team than that.

I'm clearly in the minority regarding possibly cutting Agnew. To clarify, I like him as a return specialist and occasionally on gadget plays. If they are able to re-structure his contract to take less of a salary cap hit, I'd be all for it. However, I believe his value to the team is being overstated. The statistics would back me up on this. Yes, when you add up his all-purpose yardage it totals slightly over 1000 yards with 750 coming on returns. There's no denying his returns against the Chiefs were very big, but during the regular season his returns were nothing spectacular. He averaged 26 yards per kick return and 8 on punts with no touchdowns in either category. He could be replaced by someone like Derius Davis, who is likely to be available in the 5th or 6th round. Davis has the same skill-set and returned 5 punts for touchdowns while at TCU. There have been a few return specialists such as Devin Hester and Dante Hall whose value to their team was very high; I don't believe Agnew falls into that category despite making 1 pro bowl as a return-man.
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#78

(01-22-2023, 03:45 PM)jaglou53 Wrote:
(01-22-2023, 03:37 AM)Eric1 Wrote: So $4m is more valuable than 1000+ all purpose yards?

The team can easily create $4m by converting somebody's cash to a signing bonus to keep RRH, and/or Jenkins. Khan has deep pockets. No reason to get rid of Agnew over a measly $4m. He's more important to the team than that.

I'm clearly in the minority regarding possibly cutting Agnew. To clarify, I like him as a return specialist and occasionally on gadget plays. If they are able to re-structure his contract to take less of a salary cap hit, I'd be all for it. However, I believe his value to the team is being overstated. The statistics would back me up on this. Yes, when you add up his all-purpose yardage it totals slightly over 1000 yards with 750 coming on returns. There's no denying his returns against the Chiefs were very big, but during the regular season his returns were nothing spectacular. He averaged 26 yards per kick return and 8 on punts with no touchdowns in either category. He could be replaced by someone like Derius Davis, who is likely to be available in the 5th or 6th round. Davis has the same skill-set and returned 5 punts for touchdowns while at TCU. There have been a few return specialists such as Devin Hester and Dante Hall whose value to their team was very high; I don't believe Agnew falls into that category despite making 1 pro bowl as a return-man.

Dude, study the salary cap before you make such comments.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/jacksonville-jaguars

It's not that hard to figure out....
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#79

I have to believe our brain trust had a plan for this before they pulled the trigger last off season. I would also wager the only three people that know all the details are Kahn, Baalke and Peterson. None of those guys would be into sharing things like that. I believe during the next month Baalkie and Peterson will be tweaking that plan based upon performance. We had about 68% new players last year. Look for maybe half that this year. On the bright side there are more than a few we have under contract that increased their value enough this year to perhaps enhance our draft. Just guessing...
A new broom always sweeps clean.
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#80

(01-21-2023, 11:36 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: I think they do the following:

  • Cut Griffin.
  • Cut either RRH or Jenkins and replace in the draft.
  • Extend Josh Allen with a large signing bonus but lowering the cap hit in 2023.
  • Restructure some other contracts as needed.
  • Let Jawaan Taylor walk in free agency and receive a comp draft pick in 2024.
  • Sign Engram to a multi-year contract with a large signing bonus but a fairly low cap hit in 2023.
  • Try to sign Key, if possible, and as many of the Jags other free agents as the cap allows.
  • Sign minimal free agents from other teams.  Maybe a couple of role players or depth but no major signings.
  • Use the draft to upgrade the roster.

The Josh Allen part could really help. Going from fifth year option to a long term deal could free up a lot of money that could be used to keep other guys.

The only problem with Allen is while he's a great teammate and good player, he doesn't have elite production. If he insists on getting paid like he has a lot of production then I think he might want to make next year a "contract year" to see if he can get a better deal.

If he's willing to take it, though, I could see the team giving him something around 50 million over 5 years with 20 or so as signing bonus along with incentives to pay him more of he starts getting elite production.
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