(02-12-2023, 06:10 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:

(02-12-2023, 04:20 PM)rfc17 Wrote: Need vs BAP is dumb.  just use common sense.

What is your "common sense" pick when you are on the clock in this situation in the second round?

Needs listed in order of priority. Nobody wants to trade for your pick.

I would first need to understand what those grading scales mean.  I personally have never set up a big board so it's easy for me to say this here and now but I have a hard time believing I would rate someone as precise as a 91.1.  In addition I don't know what the gap is between that WR 91.1 and CB 89.9.  When my original board was created was there only one player (that SS at 91.0) in between those two or were there 20 players in between?  It's hard for me to understand the gap in talent if I don't know the gap in those values.  If I was sticking with precise numbers, I would probably do the same for my team needs as well.  And in that case would do some simple math to know my pure value board and my adjusted board by accounting for need.  

To play along in your example though without knowing the answers to those questions I posed and not knowing the gap in need, I could see myself leaning towards the corner.  If you told me OT, DE, and CB were nearly interchangeable in terms of how desperate the need is, TE and DT were the next level of need (have solid starters, need some young depth, but could use a superstar if you came across one), and then everything else was just a nice to have, I think I would definitely go towards CB.  If CB was actually in that second tier of need like it probably is this year for the Jags, then I'd want to know what the WR and SS situations are.  But I'd still lean CB due to the premium position.

Again having never done this, but thinking through it, if I managed a draft process I dont think Id use a number scheme like that.  I'd probably group players into tiers.  The amount in each tier would change with each year obviously, but on average every draft it feels like there are 1-5 super elite prospects.  And then you have a second tier of elite players from lets say 5-15.  And then a bigger tier from maybe 16-30.  And so on and so on.  I'd probably then rank the team needs and probably classify what the need is (do I have starters but no depth, do we have depth and starters but no one elite, do I have no front line starters but lots of good backups, etc...).  So lets say it's this draft and our Jags pick in the late first is on the clock.  Realistically all the guys from super elite Tier 1 are gone, but there is still one player from Tier 2.  It's a CB.  I wouldn't rank that as our biggest need as Campbell is becoming really good and Williams played much better once outside.  However we don't have a lot of depth and nickel is basically like a starting position these days.  Plus it is a premium position.  So I would probably take that CB.  However if that one person from Tier 2 was a 4-3 MLB, I'd probably then look at my Tier 3 players and see which players from biggest need are there.  Pre-draft, I could also see within each of the tiers ordering guys based on certain qualities or perhaps needs so you have an idea of who the top priority are in an example such as that.  I would probably also flag guys for certain things such as injury.  Might have a guy that would be Tier 2 when healthy but is currently in Tier 4 due to health issues and would flag him as such.

That is a rough sketch of how I would handle the draft.  Early in the draft you are focusing on both value and need but the later you get in the draft, I think value naturally comes into play more.  You're sitting there in round 5 and some guy from your 4th tier is still there.  Even if not a position of huge need, at some point you can't pass up that value.  As part of the draft preparation you discuss a number of different scenarios and mock out how you think things will play.  So when the time comes you know how to execute and try to maximize value while also addressing needs.  I know Vic Ketchman used to say he'd rank everyone 1-400 and would just pick whoever was at the top and that the draft would be a pretty boring day.  That is easy but I'd argue doesnt necessarily maximize value and you could end up using valuable resources in areas where you shouldn't.

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